Key topics for Monday, August 10, 2026:
- Record $510 billion for the half-year—the venture market is rewriting historical highs, but capital is concentrating within a narrow circle of mega deals.
- Energy for AI—a new mega trend—billion-dollar rounds for Valar Atomics and Base Power show that "electricity for data centers" has become a standalone investment class.
- The IPO parade continues—this week, the listing of the Robinhood Ventures fund is expected, while Moonshot AI prepares for a $3 billion offering in Hong Kong.
- Record exits—in the second quarter, 32 companies went public with valuations over $1 billion, and another 24 were acquired for a total of $113 billion.
- Investor selectivity is increasing—money flows into projects with technological barriers and clear economics, rather than "wrappers" over others' models.
- Russia and the CIS—the local market is expecting a 10–15% growth by year-end, while the "Venture Landscape" forum will take place in Moscow on August 13.
Record Half-Year: $510 Billion and Unprecedented Capital Concentration
The first half of 2026 has become the best in the history of the venture industry. Analysts report that startups worldwide have raised $510 billion: $305 billion in the first quarter and another $205 billion in the second—this being the second-largest quarter on record. More than 70% of global funding in the second quarter went to artificial intelligence companies, up from approximately 50% a year earlier.
The market is exhibiting extreme concentration: OpenAI and Anthropic together accounted for $217 billion, or 43% of all venture dollars in the half-year; following a massive second-quarter round, Anthropic surpassed SpaceX in the rankings of the world's most valuable private companies. July confirmed this trend—with about $65 billion in global investments, double that of the previous year. For venture funds, this means a dual reality: while overall figures are record-setting, the number of deals is growing much slower, and competition for quality projects outside the "magnetic field" of mega rounds is intensifying.
Energy for AI: Nuclear Reactors and Batteries Attract Billions
The primary investment theme in recent days has become the energy infrastructure for artificial intelligence. The electricity deficit for data centers has evolved from an engineering challenge into a standalone venture sector with billion-dollar checks.
- Valar Atomics—a startup focusing on small nuclear reactors raised $1 billion in a Series B round led by Sequoia Capital, complemented by a $200 million credit line from a syndicate led by JPMorgan. The company has already demonstrated a reactor powering NVIDIA's AI supercomputer and is building a "waterless" power facility with a capacity of 30 MW for computing.
- Base Power—a Texas developer of home energy storage closed a Series D round at $1 billion with a valuation of $13 billion, with participation from Ribbit Capital, Valor Equity, and JPMorgan's strategic unit.
- Joulent—a Houston-based company secured $1.75 billion in strategic funding for energy infrastructure focused on computation-intensive industries.
Notably, these deals have seen participation not only from classic venture funds but also from banks, sovereign funds, and corporations. For investors, the "shovels and pickaxes" of the AI era—chips, cooling, power generation, and storage—are becoming a way to bet on industry growth without overpaying for the valuations of AI labs themselves.
AI Infrastructure and Agent Platforms: Where Big Checks Are Going
Beyond energy, capital continues to flow into the infrastructure layer of artificial intelligence. Fireworks AI, which helps corporations transform general models into specialized systems, raised $1.5 billion in a Series D round. Together AI closed a Series C at $800 million, led by Aramco Ventures in collaboration with Nvidia and General Catalyst. Safe Superintelligence, founded by Ilya Sutskever, received around $5 billion with backing from Nvidia, while Travis Kalanick's startup Atoms in the "physical AI" space secured $1.7 billion from Andreessen Horowitz.
A second notable cluster includes agent platforms and their security. HappyRobot is attracting tens of millions for automating multi-step business processes, while Convex closed its Series B at $57 million for databases for "AI-written" code, and Zenity secured $125 million for the protection of corporate AI agents. London's OLIX Computing, which focuses on photonic chips for inference, raised $312 million at a valuation of $3.3 billion, confirming that Europe can cultivate deep-tech champions.
IPO Pipeline: From Robinhood Fund to Moonshot AI
The initial public offering market is experiencing its best period in several years. Since the beginning of the year, over a hundred IPOs have been conducted, raising over $34 billion by the end of May—164% more than the previous year. In the second quarter, 32 companies went public with valuations exceeding $1 billion—a historic record.
The upcoming week promises several significant events:
- Robinhood Ventures—a fund providing retail investors access to private companies, including a portfolio linked with Y Combinator, will debut on the NYSE on August 13 under the ticker RVII, supported by Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and JPMorgan.
- Moonshot AI—a Chinese developer of models is preparing a confidential IPO application in Hong Kong, aiming to raise around $3 billion.
- Anthropic—the company has confidentially filed for a public offering following a valuation of $965 billion, according to market sources.
- SpaceX—a potential listing is discussed for the second half of 2026, with a possible valuation of up to $1.5 trillion, as roughly 70% of revenue is already being generated by Starlink.
For venture funds, the open exit window is a critical signal: in the second quarter, 24 portfolio companies were sold to strategists for prices starting at $1 billion, totaling $113 billion. The return of capital to partners fuels a new fundraising cycle.
Selectivity as the New Norm: What Investors Demand
Behind the facade of record numbers lies a tightening of selection criteria. Rounds exceeding $100 million account for nearly four-fifths of all AI funding, while early-stage companies face more demanding investors. Funds increasingly require:
- proven revenue and funded pilots instead of product demonstrations;
- technological barriers—proprietary data, hardware solutions, regulatory approvals;
- clear unit economics considering the real costs of computations;
- protected distribution channels that competitors cannot buy with money.
Generic chatbots and thin overlays on others' models have almost lost access to capital. Winning sectors include vertical solutions for healthcare, logistics, finance, and industry—where AI addresses costly and measurable client problems.
Industry Diversification: Not Only Artificial Intelligence
Although AI dominates the statistics, venture capital is expanding its reach. Function Health raised $450 million for preventive medicine, strengthening the healthtech segment. Defense technologies remain on the rise: Anduril is preparing for one of the year's most anticipated IPOs amid record defense budgets. Quantum computing gained a public benchmark following June's placement of Quantinuum, which raised $1.68 billion. In Europe, long-cycle energy storage, semiconductors, and industrial software consistently gather rounds in the tens of millions, confirming that deep technologies have become a full-fledged alternative to purely software bets.
Russia and the CIS: Betting on Recovery in the Second Half
The Russian venture market is at the bottom of its cycle and is hoping for a turnaround. After a 40% drop in the number of deals in 2025—down to 102 transactions valued at approximately $159 million—market participants forecast growth of 10–15% by the end of 2026, reaching around 17 billion rubles. Constraining factors include the high key interest rate and the situation in the currency market; however, an expected easing of monetary conditions by the end of the year may revive deals.
The drivers of recovery are private and public funds, while the activity of business angels and corporate venture capital remains limited. A key event of the week will be the fifth "Venture Landscape" forum taking place on August 13 in Moscow's Lomonosov cluster, where investors, development institutions, and technology entrepreneurs will discuss market conditions, approaches to company valuation, and requirements for projects seeking funding.
Outlook for Investors: Navigating an Overheated Market
On Monday, August 10, 2026, the venture market welcomes a phase of record, yet uneven, growth. For funds and private investors, the agenda for the coming months appears as follows: Firstly, energy infrastructure for AI is evolving into a separate investment class, where venture capital, bank lending, and governmental interest converge—this segment is just beginning to establish its valuations. Secondly, the open IPO window demands active portfolio management from managers: companies ready for public offerings receive a premium, while funds gain the long-awaited liquidity. Thirdly, the concentration of capital in mega-rounds creates opportunities at earlier stages, where competition for deals is lower and founder discipline is higher than at the peak of previous cycles.
The main risk remains the same—the overheating of valuations in the upper segment of AI. However, record exits, real corporate revenues for AI companies, and the influx of institutional money distinguish the current growth from speculative bubbles of the past. The market rewards those who combine risk appetite with stringent selection—and this formula will determine the winners of the 2026 venture cycle.
