Current Energy Sector News as of September 18, 2025: OPEC+ Meeting in Vienna, Oil and Gas Price Dynamics, Energy Policies of China and India, Russia's Measures to Stabilize the Fuel Market, Renewable Energy Records, and Global Coal Demand.
The current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of September 18, 2025, capture the attention of investors and market participants due to their complexity. The global agenda centers around the OPEC+ representatives' meeting in Vienna, where future production volumes are being discussed amid increasing market oversaturation. Oil prices remain relatively moderate due to a combination of factors: increased supply from producers and signs of demand slowdown. The European natural gas market demonstrates stability – underground gas storage (UGS) in the EU is nearing maximum capacity, thereby strengthening energy security before winter and keeping prices in check. Meanwhile, Asian powers are intensifying their presence in energy resource markets: China and India continue to increase imports of oil, gas, and coal, following their energy security strategies. The global energy transition is gathering momentum – new records in generation from renewable sources are being reported in many countries; however, traditional resources still play a vital role in the resilience of energy systems. In Russia, authorities are taking emergency measures to stabilize the domestic fuel market after a recent price surge caused by a combination of seasonal factors, sanctions pressure, and unforeseen circumstances. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and raw material sectors on this date.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus Pressure and Focus on OPEC+ Meeting
Global oil prices remain under pressure from fundamental factors, holding at relatively low levels compared to peak values in previous years. The North Sea Brent is trading at around $65–68 per barrel in mid-September, while American WTI ranges from $60–64. Current prices are approximately 10–15% lower than levels from a year ago, reflecting a gradual market correction after the price peaks during the energy crisis of 2022–2023. Multiple key factors are influencing oil price dynamics:
- OPEC+ Decisions. The oil alliance continues to increase supply, gradually lifting previously imposed restrictions. In September, participants raised the total production quota by approximately +137,000 barrels per day (after an increase of +548,000 b/d the previous month). The OPEC+ delegate meeting in Vienna on September 18–19 is discussing the methodology for assessing maximum production capacities, which may precede quota adjustments in the future. Despite relatively low prices, key exporters, especially Saudi Arabia, are demonstrating readiness to regain lost market shares. From April to September, the total production quotas have already increased by approximately 2.5 million b/d (about 2.4% of global demand), adding further pressure on prices. The next meeting of major OPEC+ countries is scheduled for October 5, and investors are closely watching whether the current pace of production increases will be maintained.
- Demand Slowdown. Global oil consumption is growing at much more modest rates than in previous years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts an increase in demand of less than 1 million barrels per day in 2025 (for comparison, in 2023, the growth exceeded 2.5 million b/d). Even producers' estimates are cautious: OPEC expects global demand to increase by approximately +1.2–1.3 million b/d in 2025. The reasons include slowing economic growth (especially noticeable slowing in China's industry) and the effect of high prices from previous years, which have stimulated energy conservation and a shift to alternative fuels. High inflation and tight monetary policies in several countries are also suppressing fuel consumption.
- Stocks and Non-OPEC Production. Commercial oil inventories in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in early September, signaling a surplus in the market. American oil companies are maintaining production levels close to record highs (around 13 million b/d), while the U.S. government is considering opportunities to replenish strategic reserves gradually, so as not to create additional demand. Simultaneously, supply outside OPEC is increasing: in addition to the U.S., other producers – from Canada and Brazil to several African countries – are ramping up production. After the summer season of domestic consumption, Saudi Arabia has increased crude oil exports, reclaiming its market share. Additionally, the reduction of oil product exports from Russia in recent months has released additional volumes of crude oil for the global market.
- Geopolitical Factors. Investors are assessing contradictory signals from global politics. On one hand, the sanctions pressure on leading producers remains – tensions in relations between Russia and the West prevent a complete removal of the "risk premium" from prices. On the other hand, ongoing negotiations and contacts among major powers (such as the summer summit between Russia and the U.S. in Alaska) sustain hopes for gradual de-escalation, somewhat limiting price growth. Furthermore, expectations of a loosening of U.S. monetary policy due to signs of economic slowdown have strengthened in financial markets – this weakens the dollar and temporarily supports commodity prices, including oil.
The combined impact of these factors is forming a situation close to a supply surplus in the oil market. Although oil prices are held within a relatively narrow corridor and remain far from crashing lows, the potential for their growth is limited. Many analysts believe that if current trends persist, the oil market will remain balanced but overproducing, and the average price of Brent in 2026 could drop closer to $50–55 per barrel. Yet, the risks of unforeseen disruptions (such as geopolitical issues or natural disasters) necessitate that companies and investors remain cautious.
Gas Market: Europe's Full Reserves and Moderate Prices
The focus remains on Europe within the gas market. EU countries are rapidly injecting natural gas into UGS facilities in preparation for the autumn-winter season. By mid-September, underground gas storages in Europe are filled to over 92%, significantly exceeding the target level planned for early November. Nearly full gas reserves provide the European market with a buffer against a cold winter or supply disruptions. As a result, gas prices remain at comparatively low levels by recent years' standards: TTF hub futures are trading at around €30/MWh (approximately $380 per thousand cubic meters). This price range indicates a balance between demand and supply in the European market.
An additional stabilizing role in prices is played by the active influx of liquified natural gas (LNG) from various regions. After the turbulence of 2022–2023, European importers have diversified their LNG sources: substantial volumes are supplied by the U.S., Qatar, African countries, as well as Russia through intermediaries. The summer months of 2025 saw record growth in LNG imports to Europe, taking advantage of relatively low spot prices and limited demand in Asia during this period. This facilitated the accumulation of additional volumes of gas in storages and prepared for the winter season without panic demand. Overall, the European gas market appears resilient as the heating season approaches, with prices comfortable for industry and energy in Europe.
However, experts warn that the favorable situation may change due to an exceptionally cold winter or a reduction in LNG supplies. Europe remains dependent on imports: its domestic natural gas production continues to decline, and traditional pipeline supplies from Russia have been minimized due to sanctions and geopolitical issues. Nonetheless, as of today, the combination of full storage facilities, diversified LNG sources, and energy-saving measures provides expectations for relative stability in the gas market this coming winter.
International Politics: Sanctions and Dialog Without Breakthrough
The topic of sanctions and geopolitical confrontation continues to dominate the international agenda within the energy sector. After the summer meeting between the presidents of Russia and the U.S., there have been no significant breakthroughs in relations – rather, in September, several actions from Washington and Brussels signal a continuation of a hard line. The United States is considering new restrictions against Russia's energy sector, including oil and LNG exporters, as well as against countries and companies aiding in circumventing existing sanctions. The European Union, while postponing the adoption of a new sanctions package against the Russian Federation (according to European media, the discussion has been pushed to next month), continues its policy of gradually reducing dependence on Russian energy resources. Simultaneously, European leaders are voicing initiatives for joint gas purchases and the accelerated development of renewable energy as a strategic response to the previous crisis.
Russia, for its part, is trying to adapt to the new conditions. Moscow is actively redirecting its energy resource exports to the east and south: oil supplies to India, China, Turkey, and several African states are increasing under discount conditions. According to Russian officials, despite sanctions, revenues from oil and gas exports to the budget remain acceptable due to price conditions and the depreciation of the ruble. However, sanctions pressure is affecting technologies and investments: access to advanced equipment for extracting hard-to-reach reserves is limited, and foreign investors are cautious with new projects. This creates long-term risks for Russia's oil and gas sector.
Dialogue among key players continues selectively in diplomatic venues – for example, within international forums and through intermediaries. Although hopes for a quick compromise are slim, maintaining communication channels helps prevent the sharpest crises. The markets are pricing in a prolonged nature of sanctions confrontation; however, even small signs of de-escalation (such as news about individual concessions or prisoner exchanges) can temporarily improve investor sentiment. Overall, the geopolitical backdrop remains complex, and FEC market participants must account for sanctions risks when planning activities.
Asia: China and India Increase Energy Supplies
Asian giants – China and India – continue to play a key role in global energy resource markets, balancing increased imports with the development of their own production. These countries are balancing external pressures and internal needs while striving to ensure energy security and economic growth.
- India. Faced with Western sanctions against Moscow, New Delhi has made it clear that a sharp reduction in imports of Russian oil and gas is unacceptable. Russia remains one of India's largest oil suppliers, meeting a significant part of the needs of the Indian economy. According to traders, Indian refiners continue to purchase Urals crude oil from Russia at a discount of around $4–5 to Brent prices, helping to keep costs in check. As a result, India not only maintains a high level of Russian oil purchases but also increases imports of oil products from Russia (for example, diesel fuel) to satisfy domestic demand. Simultaneously, the Indian government is taking steps to reduce import dependence in the long term: programs for stimulating the exploration and extraction of domestic hydrocarbons are being implemented. In August, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a national initiative for exploring deepwater oil and gas fields – the state company ONGC has already begun drilling ultra-deep wells in the Andaman Sea, aiming to discover new reserves. These steps aim to bring India closer to the goal of energy self-sufficiency, though in the coming years the country will still depend on imports, particularly oil (over 80% of consumption).
- China. The largest economy in Asia continues to actively increase energy resource purchases while simultaneously ramping up domestic production. Beijing has not joined sanctions against Russia and has taken advantage of the situation to increase imports of raw materials under favorable conditions. According to China's customs statistics, in 2024, China imported approximately 212.8 million tons of oil and 246.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas – these volumes grew by 1.8% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to the previous year. Growth continued into 2025 but has slowed somewhat due to a high base. Concurrently, China is stimulating domestic production: from January to August 2025, national companies extracted about 145 million tons of oil (+1.5% year-on-year) and 175 billion cubic meters of gas (+5% year-on-year). Domestic production helps cover part of the increased demand but does not negate the need for external supplies: experts estimate that China will import at least 70% of its oil and approximately 40% of its gas in the coming years.
It is noteworthy that China is taking bold steps in the context of sanctions confrontation. Beijing has begun to import even those energy resources from Russia formally under Western sanctions. For instance, in recent months, Chinese companies purchased several batches of liquefied natural gas from the "Arctic LNG-2" project, despite American sanctions against this new Russian LNG plant. In fact, China has demonstrated readiness to ignore restrictions to meet its fuel needs at low prices.
"The situation has changed under the influence of trade wars. In 2025, China ceased importing LNG from the U.S. – the world's largest liquefied gas producer. The risks of gas shortages have effectively prompted Beijing to designate a separate terminal “Tishan” at the Beihai port for receiving LNG from the "Arctic LNG-2" project. This terminal is unlikely to be used for other shipments – this allows China to minimize sanctions risks," noted Sergey Tereshkin (in a comment to the newspaper "Vzglyad").
Thus, China clearly signals that it is willing to purchase energy carriers from Russia even under sanctions, based on its strategic interests. Simultaneously, Beijing is concluding new long-term agreements with Moscow: gas supplies via the Power of Siberia pipeline are being increased, a memorandum on the construction of Power of Siberia-2 has been signed, and cooperation on oil product exports is expanding. India and China – the two largest Asian consumers – are likely to retain a decisive share of growth in global energy demand in the near future. Their policy, which combines advantageous imports and the development of domestic production, will continue to impact price dynamics and the redistribution of oil, gas, and coal flows worldwide.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and the Role of Traditional Resources
The global transition to clean energy is rapidly gaining momentum. In 2025, many countries are reporting new records for electricity generation from renewable sources (RES) – solar, wind, and hydro resources. Last year, total generation from solar and wind power plants in Europe surpassed production from coal and gas-fired power stations for the first time. This trend has continued into the current year: thanks to the introduction of new capacities, the share of "green" electricity in the EU continues to grow, in some months ensuring over 50% of consumption. In the U.S., renewable energy has also reached historic heights – over 30% of the country's total generation now comes from RES, with the total output of wind and solar exceeding that from coal plants. China, as the world leader in installed RES capacity, adds dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines annually, continually setting new generation records.
Companies and investors around the world are directing vast amounts of capital into the development of clean energy. According to the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector will exceed $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of that funding directed towards RES projects, modernization of power grid infrastructure, and energy storage systems. Middle Eastern countries, traditionally reliant on oil and gas, are also beginning to invest more actively in solar and wind energy, preparing for future declines in fossil fuel demand. Simultaneously, major oil and gas companies are diversifying their business – creating divisions for hydrogen and biofuels production and developing carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects in response to the global request for decarbonization.
However, the accelerated growth of RES poses new challenges for energy systems. As the share of solar and wind increases, so does the variability of generation – on windless days and hours of darkness, backup capacity is needed. Many countries must still rely on traditional sources to balance loads and cover peak demand. For example, last winter, in certain regions of Europe, operators had to temporarily increase electricity generation from coal plants during calm periods to avoid outages. Governments and companies are investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage plants) and smart grids capable of flexibly responding to fluctuations in generation.
Thus, the global energy transition is entering a new phase: renewable energy sources are breaking records and approaching a dominant status; however, maintaining the reliability of energy systems requires a fine balance with traditional resources. Experts predict that by 2026–2027, RES could take the lead globally in terms of generation volume, finally surpassing coal. However, in the next few years, the role of hydrocarbons and nuclear energy will remain significant – as a guarantee of energy security and insurance against supply disruptions of "green" energy.
Coal: High Demand and Market Stability
Despite the "green" trend, the global coal market in 2025 is sustaining significant volumes and remains an important part of the global energy balance. According to IEA estimates, worldwide coal consumption this year will closely approach the record levels seen in 2022–2023. This is driven by sustained high demand for electricity in developing economies in Asia and the forced return to coal in some developed countries during the energy crisis. Coal prices have stabilized at levels comfortable for mining companies after a period of high volatility: for example, Australian thermal coal is trading in the range of $130–150 per ton, which, though lower than the peaks of 2022, is significantly above the long-term average.
Major coal producers – China, India, Indonesia, Australia, and Russia – are generally maintaining or increasing production to meet domestic and export demand. In China, coal still covers more than half of electricity needs, and the country is bringing new coal mines to project capacity alongside investments in RES. India is increasing coal imports for its thermal power plants, facing domestic production shortages. European countries, in contrast, are reducing coal consumption for climate reasons; however, a complete phase-out has yet to be achieved: Germany, Poland, and others are using coal plants as a backup in case of gas or renewable generation disruptions.
As a result, the global coal market remains balanced: trade volumes are high, and suppliers retain reliable markets. Investments in coal projects are declining in the long term due to climate agendas and financing difficulties, yet already initiated projects continue operations. In the coming years, experts believe global demand for coal will remain close to current levels, gradually decreasing only in the second half of the decade as climate policies tighten. For a number of countries, coal remains a pillar of energy security, especially during peak loads and high natural gas prices.
Russian Fuel Market: Measures to Stabilize Prices
In Russia's domestic fuel sector, a crisis unfolded in late summer to early autumn involving a sharp rise in petroleum product prices. Wholesale exchange prices for gasoline and diesel hit historic highs in August, significantly impacting retail price tags. By mid-September, the price of AI-95 gasoline on the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange reached a record 73,000 rubles per ton, exceeding peak levels from August. Diesel fuel also increased in price, although it had previously been more stable. This price surge is attributed to several factors:
- Seasonal Demand and Agricultural Work. The summer period traditionally sees heightened fuel demand (peak road travel, harvesting campaigns in agriculture). In 2025, this seasonal factor compounded the relatively low fuel stocks among independent operators, escalating market tension.
- Refinery Repairs and Force Majeure. In Russia, both planned and unplanned repairs were conducted simultaneously at several refineries during the summer. The situation was exacerbated by extraordinary events: on September 14, a drone attack on the Kirinsk (Kirish) refinery – one of the largest in the country – was repelled. As a result of the attack and subsequent fire, a key processing unit, accounting for up to 40% of this refinery's capacity (about 400,000 barrels per day), had to be temporarily halted. Repair estimates indicate it will take at least a month, reducing gasoline and diesel supply in the domestic market in the short term.
- Export and Dampener. High global prices on petroleum products (especially diesel fuel in Europe and Asia) have prompted Russian producers to increase exports at the expense of domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the dampening mechanism (compensation for oil producers when selling fuel domestically) has partially ceased to restrain exporters: wholesale prices for gasoline exceeded the so-called dampening cutoff (around 66,500 rubles per ton for AI-92), leading to zero subsidy payments. In simpler terms, with high exchange prices, it has become more profitable for oil companies to sell fuel abroad rather than in the domestic market, exacerbating supply shortages in Russia.
The government promptly responded to the fuel crisis with a package of measures. The Russian Ministry of Finance agreed to raise the permissible deviation of exchange fuel prices from the baseline level for calculating the dampener by 10 percentage points to 20% for gasoline and 30% for diesel. Relevant amendments to the Tax Code are being prepared for adoption: this will allow resuming payments to refiners even at higher exchange prices and reduce incentives for companies to export fuel. Additionally, administrative export restrictions on petroleum products are being considered: authorities warned that a partial ban on the export of gasoline and diesel may be temporarily introduced if the situation does not stabilize. Several major oil companies have already voluntarily reduced exports and redirected additional volumes to the exchange to saturate the domestic market.
The first results of these measures have begun to manifest. In the second half of September, a correction was noted on the St. Petersburg Exchange: wholesale gasoline prices fell by about 7–8% from peak values. Diesel also saw a slight decrease. However, in the retail segment, fuel continues to rise in price – since the beginning of the year, consumer prices for gasoline across the country have risen by more than 6%, noticeably outpacing inflation (~4% over the same period). The government hopes that as the market saturates and the dampener mechanism kicks in, price growth at gas stations will slow down. Additionally, subsidies for farmers to purchase fuel have been allocated, and standards for mandatory petroleum product stocks for companies have been increased to prevent local shortages. Overall, the situation in the Russian petroleum products market remains tense but under control: it is expected that a combination of market and governmental regulatory measures will prevent fuel shortages and gradually stabilize prices in the autumn of 2025.
