Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of December 28, 2025: Hopes for Peaceful Settlement Strengthen, Oil and Gas Prices Rise, India Increases Imports, China Boosts Production, Russia Implements Measures to Stabilize Domestic Fuel Market. A Comprehensive Review of the Global Fuel and Energy Complex.
As we approach the end of 2025, global energy markets are sending mixed signals to investors and industry participants. Negotiations for a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine conflict are fostering cautious optimism about a potential easing of sanctions on the Russian fuel and energy sector; however, a breakthrough in agreements remains distant—uncertainty persists. At the same time, the sanctions regime remains in place: in November, Washington tightened restrictions, extending sanctions to deals with the largest oil companies in Russia, which compels the market to adapt to new conditions.
The global oil market, which experienced a significant price drop throughout the year due to oversupply and slowing demand, is showing signs of stabilization by the end of December. After four months of decline, prices have turned upward—benchmark Brent crude increased from around $60 to $62–63 per barrel, while WTI rose to nearly $58–59. Weekly growth was about 3%, although oil prices have decreased approximately 16% over the year. Price support has come from geopolitical factors (such as drone attacks on oil terminals in Novorossiysk and military risks in Nigeria) as well as the OPEC+ decision to maintain production limits into the first quarter of 2026 instead of the planned increase in quotas.
The European gas market began the winter season with record storage levels, which drove exchange prices down to year-long lows (approximately $330 per thousand cubic meters at the beginning of December). However, Christmas frosts heightened demand: during the holidays, gas withdrawals from underground storage facilities reached record highs, and prices at the TTF hub rebounded to around $345 per thousand cubic meters (approximately €28/MWh). Despite high resource availability, the European market remains sensitive to weather risks. EU countries have virtually ceased imports of Russian pipeline gas (Russia's share decreased to around 13% of imports) and are now betting on LNG—new contracts are being signed with the U.S. and the Middle East, and infrastructure for gas reception is being strengthened. As a result, current gas prices, although significantly lower than the peaks of 2022, may rise again during prolonged cold spells.
Meanwhile, the global transition to clean energy continues to gain momentum. Many countries are reporting new records in electricity generation from renewable sources: total installed capacity of solar and wind power plants in 2025 surpassed that of any previous year. According to industry analysts, for the first time in history, renewable energy generation exceeded coal generation in the first half of 2025. Investments in green energy are also at record highs (estimated at over $2 trillion in 2025); however, they predominantly remain focused in developed economies and China. For the reliability of energy systems, many countries are not hastening to completely abandon traditional hydrocarbons: coal and gas power plants remain crucial for meeting peak demand and stabilizing the grid, especially during periods when renewable energy cannot provide adequate generation.
In Russia, following a sharp spike in gasoline and diesel prices in the fall, authorities implemented a set of urgent measures aimed at normalizing the situation in the domestic fuel market. The government temporarily limited the export of petroleum products, increased the sales quotas for fuel on exchanges, and adjusted the damping mechanism for subsidization to direct additional volumes to the domestic market. These steps have had a tangible effect: wholesale prices for automotive fuel have begun to decrease. For instance, the exchange price for AI-95 gasoline in mid-December dropped by nearly 10% compared to the autumn peak levels. The supply situation at filling stations is stable, and fuel shortages in regions have been eliminated. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electric power, coal, and fuel segments as of this date.
Oil Market: Prices Rise Amid Limited Supply
Global oil prices increased moderately over the past week following a prolonged period of decline and remain relatively stable under the influence of fundamental factors. North Sea Brent remains in the $60–63 per barrel range, while American WTI is around $57–59. Current levels are still approximately 15% lower than a year ago, reflecting a gradual market correction after the price peaks of previous years. Several factors are influencing the dynamics of the oil market:
- OPEC+ Production Policy: To combat the oversupply, OPEC+ countries have refrained from previously planned increases in production. Quotas for the first quarter of 2026 have been maintained at the levels of late 2025, and several major exporters (including Saudi Arabia) continue to voluntarily restrict production. These steps are aimed at preventing overproduction and supporting prices, but they also lead to a reduction in OPEC+'s market share.
- Production Growth Outside OPEC: Independent producers are increasing supplies. In the United States, oil production has approached historic highs of around 13 million barrels per day, thanks to the shale boom, and exports of oil products are also rising. Other non-OPEC countries have also taken advantage of high prices in previous years to ramp up production, which has intensified competition in the market and created excess oil inventories.
- Slowed Demand Growth: Global oil demand grew much more slowly in 2025 than in the post-pandemic recovery period. According to the IEA, demand increased by only around 0.7 million barrels per day (compared to 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC's forecasts have been reduced to about 1.3 million barrels per day. Reasons include weak economic growth worldwide and the effect of high prices in previous years, which have stimulated energy-saving measures. Additionally, the slowdown in industrial growth in China has limited the appetites of the world's second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitics and Sanctions: The situation on the global stage remains uncertain. Deteriorating conditions in the Middle East and Africa periodically threaten supplies: for instance, U.S. strikes against radical groups in oil-producing Nigeria and attacks on tankers carrying Venezuelan oil have heightened fears of disruptions. On the other hand, the emergence of prospects for a peace agreement in Ukraine has fueled hopes for the easing of some sanctions on Russia and the growth of its exports. Until this happens, sanctions continue to exert influence: Russia sells oil at a significant discount (Urals averaged around $40/barrel in December, significantly lower than Brent), utilizing alternative markets and a "shadow fleet" of tankers to evade embargoes.
Gas Market: Winter Demand Drives Prices Up
The gas market is currently focused on Europe. Entering winter with storage filled to over 90%, the EU achieved a relative price reprieve in the fall: in early December, the spot price for gas dropped to about $330 per thousand cubic meters—its lowest level since mid-2024. However, the drop in temperatures at the end of the month triggered increased consumption: during the holidays, European underground storage facilities lost significant volumes of gas, yet the buffer stock remains high (at the end of December, storage is filled to over 75%). Prices responded with a moderate increase but remain significantly lower than the crisis peaks of previous winters.
European countries are continuing to diversify their gas sources. The share of Russian gas in the EU's imports has dropped to a historic low, and even after a possible resolution to the conflict, Brussels intends to maintain restrictions on supplies from Russia. LNG supplies to the European market are increasing—for example, major energy companies are signing new contracts for American and Qatari LNG, while some Eastern European countries have begun receiving gas from Azerbaijan and Northern Africa.
At the same time, demand in Asia remains a significant factor. In China, LNG imports increased by nearly 11% year-on-year in October against the backdrop of industrial recovery following the lifting of quarantine restrictions, while India, conversely, reduced LNG purchases by 11% (primarily due to high prices and a transition of power plants to coal). Nevertheless, global gas consumption in 2025 increased by an estimated 25 billion cubic meters thanks to economic recovery and expanding gasification in developing countries. Russia, having lost a significant portion of the European market, has redirected exports: pipeline supplies to China via the "Power of Siberia" project reached 38.8 billion cubic meters in 2025 (a record volume close to project capacity), while exports of Russian LNG to European countries (e.g., Belgium) even increased due to the absence of formal prohibitions on liquefied gas.
International Politics: Peace Negotiations Raise Hopes for Easing Sanctions
In the realm of foreign policy, the end of the year is marked by the intensification of dialogue among key global players regarding the Ukrainian crisis. In mid-December, Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a meeting with business representatives, revealed details of negotiations with the U.S., expressing readiness for "certain territorial compromises" in exchange for securing control over the entire Donbas. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky also stated that "much can be resolved" before the New Year, as he held a series of consultations with representatives of the U.S. administration ahead of a potential meeting with President Donald Trump.
These peaceful signals are fueling investor hopes for a gradual normalization of relations and a potential lifting of some sanctions imposed against Russia. The prospect of signing a peace agreement has already impacted market sentiment: traders are pricing in the possibility of reduced restrictions on Russian oil and gas exports in the event of a solid ceasefire. However, uncertainty remains high. Until concrete agreements are reached, Western countries continue to press for sanctions. Washington previously indicated readiness to expand energy sanctions if Moscow stalls negotiations, while the European Union has agreed to impose a full embargo on Russian gas immediately after hostilities cease. Thus, the future "thaw" of Russian fuel exports largely depends on the outcome of political dialogue in the coming weeks.
Asia: India Increases Imports Despite Pressure, China Breaks Production Records
- India: Faced with unprecedented pressure from the West (Washington, for instance, raised tariffs on Indian goods to 50%), New Delhi is not willing to abandon the beneficial import of Russian raw materials. In December, the volume of oil shipments from Russia to India is estimated at over 1.2 million barrels per day (after a record 1.77 million barrels per day in November), as Indian refineries rushed to contract crude before the new U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil took effect on November 21. Recent negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi confirmed the intention to maintain energy cooperation between the countries, despite external pressures.
- China: Beijing is betting on increasing its own energy production and infrastructure. In 2025, oil production in China reached a record ~215 million tons (about 4.3 million barrels per day), and gas production also hit a new maximum. At the same time, China is investing in expanding refining and power generation: the launch of new fields and generating capacities helps partially reduce reliance on imports. Nevertheless, China remains the world's largest importer of energy resources—it continues to purchase significant volumes of oil (including at discounted prices from Russia) and LNG to meet demand. The slowdown of China's economy in 2025 slightly chilled growth in domestic energy consumption, but the country remains a key driver of demand in the global market.
Energy Transition: Record Growth in Renewable Energy and Continuing Role of Traditional Energy
The development of renewable energy sources (RES) in 2025 set new benchmarks. New solar and wind power plants were launched around the world, increasing the share of green generation. Over the year, approximately 750 GW of new RES capacity was added globally—the highest ever. As a result, in certain periods, renewable energy provided over 50% of electricity generation in some countries. Concurrently, there is a boom in investments in clean energy: their volume, according to analysts, exceeded $2 trillion for the year.
However, despite impressive achievements, the transition to clean energy faces objective difficulties. Electricity demand continues to grow as the economy recovers, and traditional sources—gas, coal, nuclear energy—remain necessary for reliable energy supply. In 2025, the global carbon footprint of energy reached a new maximum, and fossil fuels still account for about 80% of global energy consumption. During peak load periods or adverse weather conditions (when solar and wind resources are insufficient), systems are forced to rely on coal and gas power plants to prevent blackouts. Governments acknowledge that ensuring energy security and affordability is a top priority: for instance, in Europe and the U.S., programs have been introduced to subsidize the production of key RES equipment, while strategic reserves of oil and gas are also maintained in case of crises. Thus, 2025 demonstrated progress in decarbonization while confirming that traditional energy will continue to play a significant role in the global balance for the foreseeable future.
Coal: Market Stability Amid High Demand
Despite the accelerated growth of renewable energy, the coal sector maintained strong positions in 2025 due to sustained demand. According to IEA estimates, global coal consumption reached a record 8.8 billion tons in the year—about 0.5% more than the previous year. The main growth came from Asian countries: China and India continue to burn about two-thirds of all coal in the world for electricity generation and steel production. In Southeast Asia and Africa, the construction of new coal-fired power plants continues, as coal remains one of the most affordable fuels.
Coal prices in 2025 stabilized after a period of sharp fluctuations in 2022–2023. In key Asian markets (e.g., Australia and Indonesia), the price of thermal coal fluctuates around $140–150 per ton, which is below the peak crisis values of 2022 but comfortable for producers. Major exporters—including Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—maintain high production levels to meet the needs of importers. At the same time, developed Western countries continue to reduce their coal consumption: in Europe, coal generation dropped significantly in 2025 due to the growth of RES and environmental regulations. However, the global decline in Europe is compensated by growth in other parts of the world. Thus, the coal market remains balanced: supply is sufficient to meet high demand, and although the long-term trend is gradually shifting towards cleaner energy sources, coal will remain an important part of the global energy balance in the coming years.
Russian Oil Product Market: Operational Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
In the domestic oil product market in Russia, 2025 is marked by unprecedented price fluctuations. The sharp rise in gasoline and diesel prices in the summer and fall posed a threat to the transportation sector and spurred inflation. In response, the Russian government took stringent steps to protect the market: export bans and quotas on automotive fuel were introduced, sales quotas for oil products on the St. Petersburg exchange were increased, and budgetary subsidization (the damping mechanism) was adjusted to provide additional support to refiners supplying products to the domestic market. These measures, along with the completion of scheduled repairs at refineries, allowed for an increase in fuel supply within the country.
By the start of winter, the situation had stabilized. Wholesale exchange prices started to decline, which soon reflected in retail prices. According to the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange, by mid-December, the prices for "Premium-95" gasoline had dropped by approximately 10% from the September peak. Diesel prices also retreated, returning to the levels seen at the beginning of the year. Network gas stations nationwide report improved resource supply, and fuel shortages have been eliminated even in remote regions. Authorities have stated their readiness to extend export restrictions if needed to curb domestic prices, and they are also considering the introduction of a permanent regulatory mechanism—such as linking fuel prices to export alternatives with compensation for refineries. As a result of the measures taken, the fuel crisis has been mitigated, and the Russian oil products market enters 2026 in a relatively balanced state.
