Analytical Review of Key Events in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of November 30, 2025: Oil, Gas, Coal, Energy, Renewables, Extraction, Sanctions, OPEC+, Energy Security.
Current events in the global fuel and energy sector as of November 30, 2025, are unfolding against a backdrop of mixed signals, capturing the attention of investors and market participants. Diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving international conflicts are instilling cautious optimism regarding a reduction in geopolitical tensions: potential peace initiatives are being discussed that could eventually ease the sanctions standoff. At the same time, Western countries maintain a firm approach to sanctions, sustaining a challenging environment for traditional energy resource export flows.
Global oil prices remain at relatively low levels due to an oversupply and weakened demand. The North Sea Brent crude is trading around $61–62 per barrel, while the American WTI is at about $58, nearing the lowest values in the past two years and significantly below levels from a year ago. The European gas market is entering winter in a balanced state: gas storage facilities (GSF) in EU countries are approximately 75–80% full as of the end of November, providing a solid reserve of resilience. Exchange gas prices are being maintained at relatively low levels. However, the factor of weather uncertainty remains: a sharp drop in temperatures could lead to a surge in price volatility as the season progresses.
At the same time, the global energy transition is accelerating—many nations are setting records for electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES), although traditional resources are still necessary for the reliability of energy systems. Investors and companies are pouring unprecedented amounts of capital into “green” energy, even though oil, gas, and coal continue to serve as the backbone of global energy supply. In Russia, following a recent autumn fuel crisis, emergency measures by the authorities have stabilized the domestic petroleum market as winter approaches: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have started to decline, eliminating shortages at filling stations. Below is a detailed review of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and raw material segments of the fuel and energy complex as of the current date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand Keep Prices Near Minimums
The global oil market demonstrates weak price dynamics, influenced by fundamental factors of oversaturation and slowing demand. Brent crude is trading within a narrow range of about $61–62, while WTI hovers around $58, approximately 15% lower than last year's level and close to multi-year lows. The market is not receiving strong impulses for either growth or collapse, remaining in a relative state of equilibrium with a slight oversupply.
- OPEC+ Production Increase. The oil alliance continues to gradually increase market supply. In December 2025, the total production quota for deal participants will rise by another 137,000 barrels per day. Previously, since the summer, monthly increases were around 0.5–0.6 million barrels per day, which returned global oil and petroleum product stocks to levels close to pre-pandemic figures. Although further quota increases are on hold at least until spring 2026 due to concerns about market oversaturation, the current increase in supply is already applying downward pressure on prices.
- Slowing Demand. The growth rate of global oil consumption has sharply decreased. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates demand growth in 2025 at less than 0.8 million barrels per day (compared to approximately 2.5 million barrels per day in 2023). Even OPEC's forecasts are more restrained now—around +1.2 million barrels per day. The slowdown in the global economy and the effect of previous price peaks are limiting consumption; an additional factor is the slowdown in industrial growth in China, which suppresses the appetite of the world’s second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitical Signals. Reports of a potential peace plan for Ukraine from the US have temporarily reduced some geopolitical premiums in prices, instilling hopes of lifting certain restrictions. However, the absence of real agreements and ongoing sanctions pressure prevents the market from fully calming down. Traders respond reflexively to any news: until peace initiatives are realized in practice, their impact on prices remains short-lived.
- Pressure on Shale Production from Prices. In the US, the decline in oil prices is already affecting the activity of shale producers. The number of drilling rigs in American oil basins is decreasing as prices have dropped to around $60 per barrel. Companies are exercising greater caution, and the prolonged maintenance of low prices threatens to slow the growth of supply from the US in the coming months.
The cumulative impact of these factors means that global supply exceeds demand, keeping oil prices securely below last year's levels. Some analysts suggest that if current trends continue, by early 2026 the average price of Brent could drop to around $50 per barrel. For now, however, the market balances within a narrow corridor, lacking drivers to emerge from the existing price range.
Gas Market: Europe Welcomes Winter with Comfortable Reserves and Moderate Prices
The gas market is focused on how Europe will navigate the upcoming heating season. EU countries are entering the winter cold with underground gas storage filled to a comfortable 75–80% by the end of November. This is only slightly below the record levels of last autumn and provides a strong buffer in case of extended cold spells. Thanks to this and the diversification of supply, European gas prices remain low: December TTF futures are trading around €27 per MWh (approximately $330 per 1000 m³), marking a minimum for more than a year.
This high level of reserves is attributable to record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In autumn, European companies actively sourced LNG from the US, Qatar, and other countries, almost fully compensating for the decrease in pipeline supplies from Russia. More than 10 billion cubic meters of LNG arrived at European ports each month, allowing for early filling of GSF. An additional positive factor has been the mild weather: a warm autumn and a delayed onset of cold have restrained gas consumption, allowing for economical use of stored reserves.
As a result, the European gas market currently appears resilient: reserves are substantial, and prices are moderate by historical standards. This situation is favorable for Europe's industry and electricity sector at the start of the winter season, lowering costs and the risks of disruptions. However, market participants continue to closely monitor weather forecasts: in cases of abnormal cold, the balance of demand and supply can shift rapidly, prompting accelerated withdrawals from GSFs and causing price spikes closer to the end of the season.
Geopolitics: Peace Initiatives Provide Hope, Sanction Standoffs Persist
In the second half of November, encouraging signals emerged on the geopolitical front. Reports suggest that the US has informally introduced a peace plan to resolve the conflict surrounding Ukraine, which proposes a phased easing of certain sanctions against Russia contingent upon meeting specific agreements. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, according to media reports, has received signals from Washington to seriously consider the proposed agreement developed with Moscow's participation. The prospect for compromise evokes cautious optimism: de-escalation could, over time, ease restrictions on Russian energy resource exports and improve the business climate in raw material markets.
However, no real breakthrough has yet occurred; on the contrary, the West continues to intensify sanctions pressure. A new package of US sanctions targeting the Russian oil and gas sector came into force on November 21. Major companies “Rosneft” and “LUKOIL” have been included in the restrictions: foreign counterparties are required to cease cooperation with them by this date. In mid-November, additional measures against Russian energy assets were announced by the UK and the EU. London has given companies until November 28 to complete any transactions with these oil giants, after which cooperation must be halted. The US administration has also threatened new stringent measures (including special tariffs against countries continuing to purchase Russian oil) if diplomatic progress stalls.
Thus, there have been no concrete shifts in diplomacy yet, and the sanctions standoff remains fully in place. Nevertheless, the mere fact that dialogue continues between key global players provides hope that the toughest restrictive measures from the West may be slowed down while awaiting the results of negotiations. In the coming weeks, markets are closely monitoring contacts between leaders of major powers. The success of peace initiatives will boost investor sentiment and mitigate sanctions rhetoric, while the failure of negotiations threatens new escalation. The outcomes of these efforts will significantly determine long-term conditions for cooperation in the energy sector and establish the rules of the game in the global oil and gas market.
Asia: India and China Adapt to Sanction Pressure
The two largest Asian energy resource consumers—India and China—are being forced to adapt to new restrictions in oil trade.
- India: Under pressure from Western sanctions, Indian oil refineries are significantly reducing purchases of Russian oil. In particular, Reliance Industries completely ceased imports of Urals crude by November 20, securing additional price discounts in the process. Increased banking oversight and the risk of secondary sanctions are prompting Indian refineries to seek alternative suppliers, even though, as of the first half of 2025, Russia accounted for up to a third of all oil imports in India.
- China: In China, state-owned oil companies have temporarily halted new deals for importing Russian oil due to fears of secondary sanctions. However, independent refiners (so-called “teapots”) have seized the opportunity and ramped up purchases to record volumes, acquiring crude at significant discounts. While China is also increasing its own oil and gas production, the country still heavily relies on imports, accounting for approximately 70% of its oil and 40% of its gas needs, making it critically dependent on external supplies.
Energy Transition: Records for Renewables and Challenges for Energy Systems
The global shift to clean energy continues to gain momentum. Many countries are setting new records in “green” electricity generation. In the European Union, by the end of 2024, total production from solar and wind power plants surpassed the output from coal and gas-fired power stations for the first time. This trend has continued into 2025: the commissioning of new capacities has further increased the share of renewable electricity in the EU, while the share of coal in the energy mix has begun to decline after a temporary increase during the 2022–2023 energy crisis. In the US, renewables have also reached historic levels—at the beginning of 2025, more than 30% of total generation came from RES, with combined wind and solar production exceeding output from coal power plants. China, the world leader in installed renewable capacity, continues to install record volumes of solar panels and wind generators, consistently updating its own maximums for generation.
Overall, companies and governments worldwide are directing colossal investments toward the development of clean energy. According to the IEA, combined investments in the global energy sector in 2025 will exceed $3 trillion, with more than half of these funds aimed at RES projects, electricity grid modernization, and energy storage systems. Nevertheless, energy systems still require traditional generation to ensure stability. The increasing share of sun and wind introduces new challenges for balancing, as renewable sources do not generate electricity constantly. Gas and, in some regions, coal power plants are still needed to cover peak loads and reserve capacity. For instance, last winter, certain European countries had to temporarily increase electricity production from coal plants during windless periods. Authorities in various countries are rapidly investing in large energy storage systems and smart grids to enhance supply reliability as the share of RES grows.
Experts forecast that by 2026–2027, renewable sources will become the largest electricity generation source globally, finally overtaking coal. However, in the next few years, traditional power plants will remain necessary as a reserve and insurance against disruptions. Thus, the energy transition is reaching new heights but requires a delicate balance between “green” technologies and established resources to ensure uninterrupted power supply.
Coal: Steady Demand Supports Market Stability
Despite the global push toward decarbonization, coal continues to play a key role in the global energy balance. This autumn, electricity generation from coal plants in China reached record levels, even though domestic coal production slightly decreased. As a result, coal imports in China rose to multi-year highs, helping to lift global prices from their summer slump. Other major consumers, including India, still derive a large portion of their electricity from coal, while many developing countries continue to construct new coal power plants. Major coal exporters have ramped up shipments in response to high demand.
Following the disruptions of 2022, the global coal market has returned to relative stability: demand remains high, and prices are moderate. Even as climate strategies are implemented, coal will retain its status as an indispensable component of energy supply for the coming years. Analysts expect that in the upcoming decade, coal generation, especially in Asia, will remain significant despite efforts to reduce emissions. Thus, the coal sector is currently experiencing a state of equilibrium: stable demand supports market stability, and the sector remains one of the fundamental pillars of global energy.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Normalization After Autumn Crisis
The domestic fuel market in Russia has stabilized after a severe crisis at the beginning of autumn. By late summer, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel in the country soared to record heights, causing local fuel shortages at some filling stations. The government had to intervene: from the end of September, temporary export restrictions on petroleum products were introduced, while refineries (NPPs) increased fuel output after completing scheduled repairs. By mid-October, thanks to these measures, the price surge was reversed.
The downward trend in wholesale prices continued into late autumn. By the last week of November, exchange prices for AI-92 gasoline had dropped by approximately 4%, AI-95 by 3%, and a similar ~3% decline was observed for diesel. The stabilization of the wholesale market began to be reflected in retail: consumer prices for gasoline have been slowly decreasing for the third consecutive week (though only by a few kopecks). On November 20, the State Duma passed a law intended to guarantee priority supply of petroleum products to the domestic market.
Overall, the steps taken have already had an effect: the autumn price spike has been replaced by a gradual decline, and the situation in the fuel market is normalizing. Authorities aim to maintain control over prices and prevent further spikes in fuel costs in the coming months.
Outlook for Investors and Participants in the Fuel and Energy Sector
On one hand, the oversupply in commodity markets and hopes for peaceful resolution of conflicts contribute to lowering prices and risks. On the other, the ongoing sanctions standoff and continuing geopolitical tensions create considerable uncertainty. In such conditions, companies in the fuel and energy sector need to manage risks carefully and maintain flexibility in their strategy.
Oil, gas, and energy companies are currently focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and diversifying sales channels amid the restructuring of trade flows. Simultaneously, they are looking for new growth opportunities—ranging from accelerated exploration of oil fields to investments in renewable energy and energy storage infrastructure. In the near term, key factors of uncertainty will include today's OPEC+ meeting (November 30) and potential progress in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine: their outcomes will largely determine market sentiment as we approach 2026.
