Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of December 13, 2025: Oil and Gas Dynamics, Global Energy, Sanctions, Exports, Renewable Energy, Coal, and Key Trends in the Global Fuel and Energy Complex. An Analytical Overview for Investors and Industry Participants.
Global Oil Market: Excess Supply and Cautious Demand Limit Price Growth
By the end of the year, global oil prices have stabilized at a relatively low level: Brent is trading around $60 per barrel, WTI is approximately $58. Recent signals regarding a possible easing of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy have provided a slight boost to the quotations; however, in general, oil has decreased by about 15% since the beginning of 2025 due to the threat of oversupply amidst moderate demand growth. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are adhering to a cautious strategy for managing production. At their December meeting, the alliance extended existing quotas at least until the end of Q1 2026. OPEC+ continues to maintain significant capacity in reserve (about 3 million barrels per day) to prevent price crashes. With Brent around $60, cartel representatives emphasize the prioritization of market stabilization over an immediate increase in exports, considering the likelihood of demand weakening in the future.
Several key factors influence oil price dynamics:
- Demand. Global oil consumption is growing significantly slower than in previous years. Demand growth in 2025 is estimated at less than 1 million barrels per day (compared to approximately +2.5 million in 2023). Economic decline, energy-saving measures following a period of high prices, and a slowdown in industrial growth in China restrict consumption growth.
- Supply. OPEC+ countries increased production in the first half of 2025 as previous restrictions were eased, but the threat of market oversaturation is now inhibiting plans for further production increases. The decision to maintain production cuts at the beginning of 2026 indicates the coalition's readiness to prevent surpluses: agreement participants can promptly adjust exports if prices drop.
- Geopolitics. The war in Ukraine and sanctions against major oil-producing countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) continue to limit supply and support prices. However, no new serious shocks have occurred; on the contrary, signals for dialogue are appearing (for example, proposals from the US and Turkey for negotiations), slightly reducing the "risk premium." As a result, the oil market remains in a relatively narrow price corridor without sharp jumps.
Global Natural Gas and LNG Market: Stability in Europe, Increasing Supply
The gas market situation at the end of 2025 is relatively calm— a stark contrast to the frenzy of two years ago. The European Union is entering winter without signs of gas shortages: EU underground storage is filled to over 70%, significantly above the average level for December. Gas prices in Europe (TTF hub) are holding around €30 per MWh, an order of magnitude lower than the peaks of 2022. The shortfall in Russian pipeline gas volumes is almost entirely compensated by record LNG imports from alternative sources, with terminals actively receiving fuel from the US, Qatar, Norway, and other countries.
Global LNG supply continues to grow due to the commissioning of new capacities. Large export terminals are being launched in the US (such as Golden Pass in the Gulf of Mexico), strengthening America's position as a leading supplier. Qatar plans to ramp up LNG production to 126 million tons per year by 2027 as part of its North Field expansion, securing significant volumes for buyers in Europe and Asia. New projects are also starting operations in other regions (Australia, Africa), intensifying competition in the LNG market.
At the same time, gas demand is growing at moderate rates. In Asia, some importers are even redirecting excess purchased batches to the spot market due to temporary softening of domestic consumption. Overall, the expansion of supply and restrained demand keep global natural gas prices at relatively low levels. However, weather remains a critical factor: in the event of extreme cold or disruptions in supplies during winter, sudden price spikes may occur. The baseline scenario assumes price stability will be maintained due to comfortable fuel reserves.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Western Firmness and Search for Compromise
The standoff between Russia and the West over energy resources continues, although by the end of the year, attempts at dialogue have begun to emerge. G7 and EU countries maintain a firm sanctions line: an embargo on Russian oil remains in effect, the export of oil products is restricted, a price ceiling has been introduced, and financial sanctions complicate trade in energy resources from Russia. Furthermore, new restrictions are being discussed for early 2026— allies intend to close remaining loopholes and are ready to increase pressure if the armed conflict continues.
Moreover, the European Union is taking steps toward full independence from Russian fuel. On December 10, EU ambassadors approved a plan to legally abandon energy carriers from Russia by the end of 2027— ceasing purchases of natural gas (including LNG), oil, and petroleum products. In Brussels, this move is called the beginning of a new era aimed at permanently freeing European energy from dependence on Russian fuel. The rupture with Russia is being solidified at the legislative level and stimulates the development of alternatives—from increasing LNG imports to accelerating the deployment of renewable energy. Moscow criticized the EU's strategy, claiming that replacing cheap Russian gas with more expensive imports will result in higher costs for Europe. Nonetheless, Brussels demonstrates determination to pay this price for geopolitical goals; several countries (for example, Hungary) have already promised to contest the ban on Russian gas legally, but the overall European course remains unwavering.
According to media reports, the US has proposed a plan to allies for a gradual reintegration of Russia into the global economy following a peaceful settlement— including lifting sanctions and resuming the export of Russian energy resources to Europe. However, EU leadership is cautious regarding such initiatives and excludes any softening of its stance without real progress on the Ukrainian front. Against this background, diplomatic signals for seeking compromise are intensifying. On December 12, US President Donald Trump stated he was "close to a deal" with Moscow and Kyiv regarding the resolution of the conflict— for the first time hinting at a possible peace agreement that could potentially alleviate some energy sanctions. Turkey is also offering its mediation: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed his readiness to host negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in any format at a meeting in Ashgabat. Although no concrete agreements are in place yet, such statements fuel hopes for future alleviation of the sanctions pressure affecting the sector.
Russia Reorients to Asian Markets
Faced with the loss of Western markets, Russia is increasing energy resource exports to Asia. China has become a key buyer: as early as the end of August, the first batch of liquefied gas was dispatched to the PRC from the new Arctic LNG-2 plant. In the fall, exports of Russian LNG to China grew at double-digit rates— Beijing is actively increasing purchases of fuel at a 30-40% discount, ignoring Western sanctions pressure. The energy partnership between Moscow and Beijing is strengthening, providing Russia with alternative outlets and cheap raw materials for the economy to China.
India also remains one of the largest importers of Russian hydrocarbons. Following the introduction of the European oil embargo, Indian refineries significantly increased purchases of Russian Urals oil and other grades at reduced prices. Russian leadership assured partners of their readiness to provide India with stable volumes of oil and petroleum products. Cheap raw materials from Russia help meet India’s rapidly growing demand and keep domestic fuel prices in check, although New Delhi is striving to avoid critical dependence on a single supplier.
To solidify its "Eastern turn," Russia is developing export infrastructure. A new gas pipeline project "Power of Siberia-2" through Mongolia to China is under discussion, which could significantly increase gas supplies to Asia. At the same time, a dedicated tanker fleet is being created to deliver oil to the markets of India, China, and Southeast Asia, reducing dependence on Western shipping companies and insurers. These measures aim to make the reorientation of energy flows to the East irreversible and lower Russia's dependence on the European market. Concurrently, Russia is strengthening ties with Middle Eastern partners. In a meeting in Ashgabat, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed cooperation with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in the areas of gas and power generation. Strategic projects, such as the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, are also being worked on, along with the development of the "North-South" international transport corridor. This cooperation enhances Russia's integration into the energy chains of the East and South, partially compensating for the severance of ties with Europe.
Kazakhstan: Transit Risks and New Routes
The military conflict in Ukraine also affects energy resource export routes. In early December, a drone attack damaged the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) marine terminal near Novorossiysk, through which Kazakhstan exports oil. Although shipments of Kazakh oil have not been completely halted, Astana has decided to accelerate the diversification of routes. The Kazakh government announced the diversion of some oil from the gigantic Kashagan field to China and is considering increasing supplies through Caspian ports to reduce dependence on the traditional route through Russian territory.
To strengthen energy security, Kazakhstan also plans to build a new oil refinery with foreign capital participation. Expanding domestic capacities for oil product production will allow the country to reduce fuel imports and enhance the resilience of the oil and gas sector against external shocks.
Renewable Energy and Climate: Progress and Temporary Setbacks
The global energy transition continues to accelerate, although international climate agreements are stalling. At the UN COP30 conference (November 2025, Belém, Brazil), a rigorous plan to phase out fossil fuels failed to be adopted— several major oil and gas exporters blocked the EU's initiative for specific deadlines for a gradual cessation of production. The final agreement is of a compromise nature, shifting the focus to financing climate adaptation and overall emission reduction targets without clear deadlines for phasing out oil, gas, and coal.
Despite the absence of new obligations, leading economies are practically increasing investments in "green" energy. The year 2025 has become a record for the commissioning of new solar and wind power plants in many countries. China, India, the US, the European Union, and others are actively investing in renewable energy sources, energy storage systems, and hydrogen technologies, aiming to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons.
In the short term, temporary setbacks from the carbonization course are also observed. High natural gas prices in 2025 have forced several countries to increase coal burning for electricity generation to successfully get through the winter season— global demand for coal remains high. Experts consider this step a temporary measure. As the share of renewable energy sources increases and energy storage technology improves, the consumption of coal and other fossil resources is expected to resume its decline. Thus, the long-term trend toward a transition to clean energy remains intact, albeit with certain delays along the way.
Forecasts: Early 2026
Analysts expect that in the first quarter of 2026, oil prices will be under moderate downward pressure due to high reserves and supply outpacing demand growth. In the absence of new shocks, the average price of Brent may drop to the range of $55–60 per barrel. At the same time, geopolitical factors can sharply change price dynamics: escalating conflict in Ukraine, the introduction of new sanctions, and crises in key oil-producing regions (Middle East, Latin America) could cause severe price fluctuations.
For the gas market, weather will remain a determining factor. If winter in the Northern Hemisphere is mild and fuel reserves are sufficient, European gas prices will remain low. However, several weeks of anomalous cold could quickly deplete underground storage and provoke price spikes. Furthermore, competition between Europe and Asia for LNG may intensify if economic growth in Asian countries exceeds expectations.
Fuel and energy sector participants in 2026 will need to adapt to new conditions. Supply diversification, increasing energy efficiency, and implementing innovations (including the development of renewable energy sources and carbon capture technologies) will be key to business resilience. The outgoing 2025 year has vividly demonstrated the close interconnection of economy, politics, and ecology in shaping prices for oil, gas, and electricity. In 2026, this interconnection will likely intensify: the global market will balance between oversupply and the risks of shortages, while the global community and regulators will have to simultaneously address energy security and climate goals.
