Global News from the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Thursday, January 22, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Oil Products, Geopolitics, and Key Trends in the Energy Sector for Investors and Industry Participants
Current events in the global fuel and energy complex (TЕК) as of January 22, 2026, are creating a mixed backdrop for investors and market participants. The geopolitical climate is heating up: a trade conflict emerges between the United States and Europe over Washington's attempts to exert control over Greenland, raising the risk of a massive tariff war across the Atlantic. The European Union has already signaled its readiness for a tough response to potential U.S. tariffs, increasing uncertainty for the global economy. Simultaneously, positive factors support global markets: the Chinese economy is demonstrating stronger-than-expected growth, stimulating demand for energy resources, while tensions are de-escalating in certain regions of the Middle East, reducing the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.
The global oil market remains in a fragile equilibrium. Brent prices hold around $64–66 per barrel, while the American WTI hovers around $60, reflecting a balance between adequate supply and recovering demand. The restrained price dynamics are largely attributed to an oversupply amid record production in the U.S. and increasing exports from several non-OPEC countries. However, optimism about demand, fueled by recent robust economic data from the U.S. and China, is providing support for prices. The European gas market is showing resilience in the midst of winter: although gas storage levels in the EU are decreasing due to withdrawals, they are still approximately half full, significantly above the average level for the end of January. Record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) into Europe and a relatively mild start to the winter season are keeping wholesale gas prices at moderate levels (around €35–40/MWh, significantly below the peaks of 2022). Meanwhile, the global energy transition is reaching new heights: many countries are registering new records in electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), although traditional coal and gas plants are still needed for the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, the energy sector is adapting to ongoing sanctions: oil companies continue to redirect exports to friendly countries, utilizing bypass logistics schemes, while authorities maintain control over the domestic fuel market to prevent shortages and sharp price spikes following last year's crisis. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and commodity sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Prices Balance Between Demand Growth and Trade Risks
Global oil prices are exhibiting relative stability, despite the presence of opposing forces in the market. On one side, optimism regarding fuel demand is increasing, particularly due to positive signals from Asia: the revival of economic growth in China and other countries is boosting oil consumption. On the other side, investors are cautiously assessing the potential consequences of the trade standoff between the U.S. and the European Union, which could slow down global economic growth and negatively impact demand for energy resources. Consequently, Brent and WTI prices are moving within a narrow range, lacking sufficient momentum for either an increase or a decrease.
- Sufficient Supply: The OPEC+ alliance has maintained existing production restrictions for the first quarter of 2026 following their December meeting, yet global oil supply is still increasing. Record production in the U.S. (over 13.5 million barrels per day) combined with rising exports from Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and other countries is injecting additional volumes into the market. The influx of new barrels is exerting pressure on prices, preventing significant increases.
- Demand Recovery: The growth rate of global oil consumption remains moderate but steady. According to the International Energy Agency, global demand grew by approximately 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, with similar growth expected in 2026. Rapidly developing economies in Asia, primarily China and India, continue to increase oil imports, compensating for stagnant consumption in Europe. This development provides support for the oil market on the demand side.
- Geopolitical Risks: The international situation remains tense. New sanctions threats targeting the oil sector (e.g., U.S. plans to tighten control over the sale of Russian oil through third countries) and the threat of tariffs between Western partners are heightening uncertainty. Although real supply disruptions have not materialized thus far, the mere fact of increased rhetoric surrounding sanctions and trade disputes urges market participants to act cautiously. At the same time, the weakening of the U.S. dollar amid these risks is favorable for commodity prices, partially supporting oil prices.
Gas Market: Winter Demand Rises, but Stocks and LNG Keep Prices Steady
In the gas market, Europe remains in focus, navigating through the winter period without major turmoil. Despite the January cold and increased demand for heating, the situation regarding gas supply appears favorable. High starting inventories and active LNG imports have mitigated the impact of the seasonal consumption spike, allowing the region to avoid the crisis scenarios seen in previous years.
- Comfortable Supplies: EU countries entered winter with record-high storage levels (over 80% capacity at the beginning of the heating season). By the end of January, European storage facilities remain approximately 50% full, which, while below last year's levels, is significantly higher than the long-term average for this time of year. The substantial reserve in storage means that even in the event of further cold spells, Europe has a buffer to meet demand.
- Record LNG Imports: Throughout 2025, European countries increased liquefied natural gas purchases to historic highs in order to offset declining pipeline supplies from Russia. By the beginning of 2026, LNG accounted for over 35% of Europe's gas supply structure. Major suppliers, including the U.S., Qatar, and other Middle Eastern exporters, are directing significant volumes of LNG to the European market. This influx has helped fill storage facilities and keeps prices relatively low, around $400 per thousand cubic meters, despite increased winter demand.
- Price Dynamics: Gas market indices in Europe are still far from the extremes of 2022. Although prices at times rise above €40/MWh amidst colder temperatures, overall market stability prevails. Moderate prices ease the burden on industry and consumers, reducing energy costs compared to the recent crisis period. Experts note that if current trends continue, Europe should successfully conclude the 2025/26 winter without a gas shortage. Main risks are shifting to the summer months, when refilling storage for the subsequent heating season will become necessary—at that time, competition with Asian LNG importers may intensify, impacting pricing dynamics.
International Politics: Escalation of U.S.–EU Trade Conflict and Increased Sanctions Pressure
Geopolitical factors are increasingly influencing energy markets. In January, relations between the U.S. and its European allies sharply deteriorated due to Washington's controversial initiative to purchase Greenland. President Donald Trump publicly expressed intentions to impose significant tariffs (ranging from 10% to 25%) on goods imported from several European countries—including Denmark, Norway, Germany, France, and the UK—beginning in February in response to European refusal to discuss the sale of Greenland. This unprecedented measure alarmed the European Union: Brussels announced it was prepared for coordinated retaliatory actions, including implementing mirror tariffs on American goods. The prospect of a transatlantic trade war has come to the forefront, threatening economic growth on both sides of the Atlantic.
The exchange of sharp statements heightens market nervousness. Investors fear that the escalation of the conflict between the world's largest economies will negatively impact demand for oil and gas. Already, it has been observed that news regarding possible trade barriers leads to a shift toward safe-haven assets and a weakening of the U.S. dollar, indirectly supporting commodity prices. However, if threats manifest into actual tariffs, it could strike at Europe's industries and reduce fuel consumption. On the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, representatives from the EU and the U.S. are trying to unofficially tone down rhetoric, but neither side is showing readiness to concede key positions.
Meanwhile, sanctions policy against Russian oil and gas is tightening. The U.S. administration indicates that it has no intention of loosening pressure on Moscow. The head of the U.S. Treasury, speaking in Davos, reproached some countries for covertly buying Russian energy resources through third states and threatened extraordinary measures. In Washington, the possibility of imposing 500% tariffs on energy carriers for countries found violating price caps and embargoes against Russia is being discussed. Although these radical steps are still in the deliberation phase, the rhetoric is harsh. Existing restrictions (the EU oil embargo, the G7 price cap, etc.) remain fully in place, and Western regulators emphasize their willingness to monitor compliance more strictly. Consequently, hopes for a thaw in sanctions standoffs, which emerged earlier, have given way to the understanding that pressure on Russia's energy sector may only intensify. Energy companies and investors will need to factor this into their strategies for 2026, as further confrontation will affect both supply routes and pricing conditions in global markets.
Asia: India and China Balance Between Import and Domestic Production
- India: New Delhi is striving to ensure energy security amidst sanctions and market volatility. Despite pressure from the West to reduce cooperation with sanctioned suppliers, India continues to purchase significant volumes of Russian oil and oil products, considering a swift exit impossible. Indian refiners are obtaining raw materials under advantageous conditions—with substantial discounts to global prices. According to traders, the discount on Urals crude for India reaches $4–5 per barrel relative to Brent, making these supplies quite attractive. As a result, India maintains its status as one of the largest importers of Russian oil while simultaneously increasing fuel purchases on the global market to meet domestic demand. Concurrently, the government is actively developing its resource base: at the initiative of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a large-scale program for geological exploration and offshore production has been implemented since last August. The state company ONGC is drilling ultra-deep wells in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, with initial results deemed promising. This strategy aims to discover new fields and gradually reduce India's import dependency in the long term.
- China: The largest economy in Asia is ramping up its imports of energy carriers while also increasing domestic production volumes. Beijing has not joined the sanctions against Moscow and has taken advantage of the situation to purchase record amounts of raw materials at reduced prices. According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2025, China imported about 577 million tons of oil (approximately 11.5 million barrels per day), a 4.4% increase compared to the previous year, while total spending on oil imports decreased by nearly 9% due to declining raw material costs. Russia retained its position as China's largest oil supplier (approximately 101 million tons, 7% less than in 2024), accounting for one-fifth of China's imports, followed by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Malaysia, which acts as a transit point for supplies from Iran and Venezuela. Simultaneously, China is breaking its own production records: in 2025, over 216 million tons of oil (+1.5% year-on-year) and 262 billion cubic meters of gas (+6.2%) were produced domestically. Although production growth does not keep pace with consumption growth, the annual increase in domestic output partially helps meet needs. Nonetheless, China remains heavily reliant on external supplies—estimates suggest that around 70% of consumed oil and up to 40% of gas is still imported. In the coming years, Beijing plans to maintain a balance between imports and the development of its resources, investing in new extraction technologies and field exploration. Thus, the two Asian powers—India and China—will continue to play a key role in the global energy market, acting as major importers while also boosting their own production to strengthen energy independence.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy is rapidly progressing, establishing new records. By the end of 2025, many countries have reached historic highs in electricity generation from renewable sources—primarily solar and wind. In the European Union, the share of green generation exceeded production from coal and gas power plants for the year, solidifying the trend of renewable energy growth in the energy balance. On particular days in major EU economies (Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, etc.), solar and wind power plants collectively provided more than half of the total electricity consumed. In the U.S., the share of renewable energy confidently exceeds 30%, and in certain months, generation from renewables has already outpaced coal-fired power production. China, with the largest renewable energy capacity in the world, continues to bring online dozens of gigawatts of new solar and wind stations each year, setting its own records for clean energy deployment.
The surge in investments in sustainable energy is also impressive. According to the International Energy Agency, total investments in the global energy sector surpassed $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of this amount allocated to RES projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems. Major oil, gas, and energy companies are diversifying their activities, increasingly investing in wind and solar generation, as well as energy storage technologies, striving to meet decarbonization requirements and investors’ demand for sustainability. This shift in strategies among leading industry players reflects an overall global trend: energy companies are preparing for a future dominated by low-carbon sources.
However, achieving a complete phase-out of fossil fuels remains unattainable—traditional generation is still necessary to ensure the stability of energy systems. The growth of RES share creates new challenges: the intermittent nature of solar and wind energy necessitates backup capacity to account for windless weather or lack of sunshine. During peak consumption hours or extreme weather conditions, gas, and sometimes coal power plants are still in demand to cover the load and prevent power outages. For example, during recent cold anti-cyclones, some European countries had to briefly increase production at coal-fired plants to compensate for the drop in RES generation and the high demand for electric heating. To minimize such situations, governments are investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage facilities) and intelligent grids capable of flexibly managing load. Simultaneously, several countries are returning to nuclear energy as a reliable low-carbon source: Japan, for instance, began phased restarts of the largest nuclear power plant, Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, in January 2026, bringing its first reactor online after years of idleness, symbolizing the global trend of renewed interest in nuclear generation.
Experts predict that in the next 2-3 years, renewable sources of energy may surpass fossil fuels globally in total electricity generation, definitively outpacing coal as the primary source of generation. However, ensuring reliability will be crucial for a successful energy transition: until energy storage technologies become sufficiently widespread and accessible, traditional power plants will continue to serve as a backup reserve. Thus, the global energy transition is entering a new phase—renewable energy is setting records and approaching leading positions, but harmonious coexistence with traditional generation remains a necessary condition for energy system stability.
Coal: Strong Demand Maintains Market Stability
The global coal market remains characterized by high consumption levels and relative price stability despite global decarbonization efforts. In 2025, total coal consumption reached record highs, primarily driven by growth in developing Asian economies. China reaffirmed its status as the largest consumer and producer of coal: output in the PRC increased to approximately 4.83 billion tons (+1.2% year-on-year), slightly exceeding the previous year’s level, marking a historic maximum. These massive volumes barely meet domestic demand: during peak periods (e.g., summer during extreme heat events, when air conditioning loads spike), China must burn coal at near-record rates, with domestic production running at full capacity. India, possessing significant coal reserves, is also actively utilizing this resource to ensure its energy balance—over 70% of electricity in the country is still generated from coal-fired power plants. As the economy and electrification grow, demand for coal continues to rise in India. Other Southeast Asian nations (Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Bangladesh) are undertaking projects to construct new coal-fired power plants, aiming to meet growing electricity needs and avoid energy deficits.
Supply in the global coal market meets high demand. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—have increased production and export of thermal coal in recent years, fulfilling the needs of key importers. After sharp price spikes in 2021-2022, the situation has normalized: in 2025, prices for thermal coal fluctuated within a relatively narrow range, comfortable for both producers and consumers. Coal remains one of the main pillars of global energy in the short term. Although more countries are announcing plans to reduce coal usage as part of the fight against climate change, this fuel will continue to play a significant role in the next 5-10 years, especially in the Asian region. The process of replacing coal with renewable sources and gas will take years, if not decades, therefore, coal generation will remain part of the energy balance in the foreseeable future. The industry's task is to find a balance between environmental goals and current energy needs: until technologies and infrastructure allow for a complete phase-out of coal, the market for this fuel will remain stable due to sustained demand.
Oil Products and Refining: High Margins for Refineries
The state of the global oil products market at the beginning of 2026 is favorable for refineries and fuel companies. Relatively low oil prices, combined with steady demand for key fuel types—gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel—are ensuring high refining margins in various regions. Refiners are enjoying good profits by taking advantage of cheap raw materials while still maintaining significant consumption of oil products.
- Rising Refinery Profits: Global indicative refining margins are holding near multi-year highs. The production of diesel fuel is particularly profitable, with strong demand persisting in the transport and industrial sectors worldwide. The global diesel market is facing relative shortages: reduced export supplies from Russia, implemented by the country to stabilize the domestic market after the 2025 crisis, have limited international supply. Consequently, European and Asian refineries have been able to increase production of high-value-added diesel and extract additional profits.
- New Capacities vs. Old Closures: In Asia and the Middle East, new modern refinery complexes continue to be actively constructed. Major projects in China, India, and the Gulf states are bringing new capacities online, increasing global refining volumes. Meanwhile, in Europe and North America, several outdated refineries have been closed or repurposed for biofuel production due to environmental concerns and decreased profitability. This parallel process—launching new mega-factories in the East while reducing capacities in the West—is helping to avoid market oversaturation with oil products. The balance between fuel demand and supply is maintained, allowing refining margins to stay at elevated levels.
- Stability of the Domestic Market: Exporting countries are implementing measures to support their own fuel markets, influencing the global situation. For example, in 2025, Russian authorities temporarily banned the export of gasoline and diesel fuel to saturate the domestic market and curb record prices. These restrictions, partly lifted by year-end, prevented shortages within the country, while simultaneously reducing the available supply of Russian oil products abroad. For the global market, this became one of the factors keeping fuel prices from declining and supporting refiner revenues in other countries. Overall, the combination of regional specifics—from Asian capacity expansion to export restrictions—creates favorable conditions for refining market participants at the beginning of 2026.
Thus, news from the oil, gas, and energy sector as of January 22, 2026, reflects a complex intertwining of geopolitical challenges and market factors. Despite the tightening sanctions and the threat of a trade war between the West and the U.S., global energy markets exhibit relative stability. Investors and energy companies continue to adapt to the new reality: oil prices remain at moderate levels due to a supply-demand balance, gas markets are navigating winter without upheaval, and the energy transition is gaining momentum, opening new opportunities. In the coming months, energy market participants will need to closely monitor the developments in the U.S.–EU trade conflict, the implementation of sanction threats, and further demand signals from major economies to respond promptly to changes in the market landscape and sustain resilience amidst global uncertainty.
