Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector News for January 21, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Coal, Renewables, Refineries, Sanctions, Geopolitics, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market for Investors and Market Participants.
Current events in the global fuel and energy sector on January 21, 2026, attract the attention of investors and market participants with their complexity. The international political landscape is becoming increasingly tense: trade frictions between the U.S. and Europe over the Greenland situation, along with new sanctions threats, create uncertainty. At the same time, positive economic signals from China support demand, contributing to rising oil prices. The global oil market continues to balance on a fragile equilibrium; Brent prices remain in the mid-$60s per barrel, reflecting a delicate interplay of factors. The European gas market, amidst winter, demonstrates relative resilience: underground gas storage in the EU is approximately half full, providing a buffer for the remaining cold months and keeping prices at moderate levels. Meanwhile, the global energy transition reaches new heights — power generation from renewable sources hits records, although countries have not yet fully abandoned traditional resources for the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, following the price surge last year, authorities quickly calmed the domestic fuel market, ensuring supply for consumers. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of the current date.
Oil Market: Price Recovery and Factors Behind Supply Overhang
Global oil prices resumed growth at the beginning of the year, yet they remain significantly below last year's levels. North Sea Brent is trading around $64–65 per barrel, while U.S. WTI is near $60. This is 15–20% lower than in January 2025, reflecting the gradual cooling of the market following last year’s price spike. Current price dynamics are influenced by a range of fundamental factors:
- Supply Increase. Throughout 2025, OPEC+ countries have ramped up production, gradually easing previous restrictions. Concurrently, non-OPEC nations have seen a surge in supply: record volumes of oil are coming from the U.S. as well as new production hubs like Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and others. Overall, the global market is saturated with additional barrels, putting pressure on prices.
- Demand Deceleration. Global oil consumption growth has slowed down. According to the International Energy Agency, in 2025, world demand increased by only ~1.3 million barrels per day (compared to ~2.5 million in 2023). Factors include weakening economic dynamics, energy-saving effects following a period of high prices, and more tempered industrial growth in China. Even OPEC’s forecasts indicate modest demand growth, limiting price uptick potential.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty. Emerging risks on the international stage create conflicting expectations among market participants. On one hand, the lack of progress in easing sanctions and current disagreements between the U.S. and Europe maintain nervousness, restraining trader activity. On the other hand, concerns about a global economic downturn due to trade conflicts dampen bullish sentiment. Consequently, oil prices fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking sufficient momentum for either a new rally or deeper decline.
Collectively, the prevalence of supply over demand keeps the oil market in a surplus state. Brent prices remain confidently below last year’s peaks. Some analysts believe that if current trends persist, the average price of oil could drop closer to $50 per barrel in 2026. For now, the market maintains a cautious balance, monitoring further developments in the global economy and political landscape.
Gas Market: Comfortable Supplies in Europe and Modest Prices
The gas market is focused on Europe, which is experiencing the middle of the winter season without major upheavals. EU countries entered winter with high inventories: at the start of the heating period, underground storage was over 80% full. Active injection throughout 2025 and a mild start to winter allowed for reduced fuel withdrawal. As of mid-January, European gas storages are still filled to around 50% of total capacity. Although this level is lower than the previous year’s figure, it remains above the average five-year value for this date.
Exchange prices for gas are holding at relatively moderate levels. Gas futures on the Dutch TTF hub are trading around €35–40/MWh (approximately $380–430 per thousand cubic meters). These prices are significantly lower than the peak crisis levels of 2022, signaling balanced demand and supply in the market. Key factors currently affecting the situation are as follows:
- Record LNG Imports. Throughout 2025, Europe increased its purchases of liquefied natural gas, compensating for the decrease in pipeline supplies from Russia. The share of the U.S. as an LNG supplier rose to around 27% of European imports. High LNG supply volumes, especially from North America and the Middle East, largely contributed to filling storages and meeting winter demand.
- Weather Factor. Relatively mild weather at the beginning of winter and the absence of prolonged extreme cold have restrained heating gas demand. This has allowed Europe to avoid sharply depleting inventories in the early winter weeks. However, potentially cold periods remain ahead, so the situation is being monitored closely.
- Future Challenges. Despite the current comfort, experts indicate that by summer, Europe will need to actively replenish storages again. The lower stocks compared to last year imply a necessity for additional gas volumes in 2026. Challenges could arise if competition for LNG from Asia intensifies with accelerated economic growth there. Additionally, in light of strained relations with Washington, some analysts express concerns about the reliability of U.S. LNG supplies, although no actual moves to restrict exports have yet been made.
Overall, the European gas market currently appears relatively stable. Industry and energy sectors in the EU receive fuel at moderate prices, and homes and businesses are adequately heated. If current trends persist, the winter of 2025/26 could conclude without gas shortages, although new geopolitical risks add an element of uncertainty. Market participants will shift their focus to the upcoming gas injection season in summer and autumn 2026 and how Europe manages this task under changing conditions.
International Politics: U.S.-Europe Trade Frictions and Sanctions Against Russia
In global politics, the escalation of relations between the United States and its European allies has come to the forefront, potentially reflecting in the energy sector. U.S. President Donald Trump made an unprecedented statement in January, intending to impose new tariffs on a range of goods from key European countries (including Denmark, Norway, Germany, France, the UK, and others) starting in February. The basis for such measures was the stance of European governments, which did not support Washington's plans to acquire Greenland. Under the announced scheme, U.S. tariffs will begin at 10% and could increase up to 25%, remaining in force until a sale agreement for Greenland is reached. The European Union reacted firmly: the President of the European Commission stated readiness for a coordinated response, signaling the possibility of a full-scale trade confrontation on both sides of the Atlantic.
These events intensify geopolitical uncertainty for energy markets. Investors fear that an escalation of the transatlantic conflict may adversely impact the global economy and demand for energy. It has already been noted that the mere threat of a trade war has led to increased interest in protective assets and a weakening of the U.S. dollar, indirectly supporting oil prices. However, in the event of strict tariffs and EU countermeasures, economic growth may slow, particularly in Europe, which would reduce fuel consumption.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has continued its course of increasing sanction pressures in the oil and gas sector. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, openly criticized Europeans for continuing to purchase Russian oil (including through third countries) despite official restrictions. He stressed Washington’s determination to minimize Moscow's export revenues from hydrocarbons. The Trump administration is discussing the possibility of applying extraordinary measures against violators of the sanctions regime — including imposing 500% tariffs on oil supplies to countries that will be caught purchasing significant volumes of Russian oil outside the established price limits. Notably, it has been claimed that the president has the authority to impose such tariffs without Congressional approval, reflecting the seriousness of intent.
Currently, no new sanctions or tariffs have been effectively implemented, yet the rhetoric remains tough. Existing restrictions on Russian energy exports (the EU oil embargo and price caps from the G7) are fully maintained. Officials from the U.S. Treasury signal that they will closely monitor the enforcement of sanctions and are prepared to tighten them if necessary. Thus, hopes for easing the sanctions standoff, which appeared in the second half of 2025, have been replaced by the understanding that the pressure, on the contrary, may increase. In the coming weeks, markets will closely monitor the development of U.S.-EU dialogue to see if verbal ultimatums escalate into real trade barriers. The outcome of this confrontation will largely determine the long-term conditions of global oil and gas business operation: it will affect both supply routes for energy carriers and pricing dynamics in raw material markets.
Asia: India and China Between Imports and Domestic Production
- India. Confronted with western sanctions, New Delhi consistently defends its interests in energy security. A sudden reduction in imports of Russian oil and gas for India is recognized as impossible — these supplies cover a significant portion of the needs of the rapidly growing economy. Instead, Indian authorities have secured special conditions: Russian companies are providing India with additional discounts on purchases of Urals grade oil (estimated at about $5 below Brent prices), allowing Indian refiners to source raw material at preferential rates. As a result, India continues to actively increase purchases of Russian oil and imports significant volumes of oil products from Russia, satisfying domestic fuel demand. Simultaneously, the country aims to reduce import dependence in the long run. The government is implementing a program for exploration and the development of new fields: starting in August last year, under the initiative of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a large-scale "deep-sea mission" for oil and gas exploration has been launched. The state corporation ONGC is drilling ultra-deep wells (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea; initial results are considered promising. These efforts are aimed at discovering new hydrocarbon reserves and gradually moving India towards energy independence.
- China. The largest economy in Asia has also increased energy carrier procurement while simultaneously boosting domestic production. Beijing did not join western sanctions against Russia and utilized the situation to increase its import of raw materials at favorable prices. According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2025, China imported a record 577.7 million tons of oil — approximately 11.55 million barrels per day, up 4.4% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, China’s spending on oil procurement has even decreased by nearly 9% year-on-year due to lower raw material costs. Russia retained its status as the largest supplier (100.7 million tons, down 7% from 2024), providing about a fifth of Chinese oil imports, although its share has slightly decreased. Saudi Arabia holds second place (80.8 million tons, up 2.7%), followed by Iraq, Malaysia (as a transit for Iranian and Venezuelan oil), Brazil, and other countries. Simultaneously, China is promoting the growth of its own oil and gas production. In 2025, China produced 216 million tons of oil (+1.5% year-on-year) and 261.9 billion cubic meters of natural gas (+6.2%). Although growth rates are modest, annual production increases help partially offset rising demand. Chinese refineries have also increased their throughput by 4%, exceeding 737 million tons per year — reflecting high domestic fuel demand. Nevertheless, China’s dependence on imports remains significant. Analysts estimate that in the coming years, China will need to import about 70% of its oil consumption and up to 40% of its gas. Thus, these two Asian giants — India and China — will continue to play key roles in global raw material markets, combining import security strategies with the development of their resource base.
Energy Transition: Growth of Renewable Energy and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy is gaining momentum. In many countries, 2025 marked new records in electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), primarily solar and wind. In the European Union, preliminary data indicates that the share of renewable generation continued to increase, reaching a historic peak by year’s end. Just in 2024, cumulative output from solar and wind power plants in the EU surpassed that from coal and gas plants for the first time, and this trend was reinforced in 2025 through the commissioning of new green capacities. In the U.S., renewable energy accounts for over 30% of total electricity production, and in some months, generation from RES has already surpassed that from coal plants. China, the world leader in installed renewable capacities, annually introduces tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines. In 2025, China continued to install record volumes of renewable capacities, expanding its already largest RES park globally. There is a significant influx of investments into clean energy globally; according to the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 surpassed $3 trillion, with more than half of these funds directed toward RES projects, electrical grid modernization, and energy storage systems. Major energy companies and funds worldwide are increasingly prioritizing green projects for investments, reflecting a shift in industry focus towards sustainability.
Meanwhile, energy systems still cannot do without traditional generation, which serves as a foundation for stability. The growth in solar and wind capacities presents new challenges for load balancing: during hours when the sun doesn’t shine or the wind dies down, reserve capacity is necessary. In peak demand periods or during adverse weather conditions, the output from gas and occasionally coal power plants becomes necessary again. For instance, during certain periods last year, several European countries had to briefly increase output from coal plants during windless weather in winter — despite environmental concerns, this was needed to prevent outages. To minimize such situations, governments are investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped hydro storage) and smart grids capable of flexibly managing load distribution. These measures progressively enhance the reliability of energy supply as the share of RES increases.
Experts predict that in the coming years, renewable sources might surpass traditional sources as the world’s dominant electricity generation method, potentially overtaking coal as the primary generation source. This could happen in 2026–2027 if the pace of capacity additions continues. However, in the foreseeable future, the need for classical power plants’ support will remain, as traditional gas and coal setups will serve as insurance against disruptions until energy storage and management technologies mature sufficiently. Thus, the global energy transition enters a new phase — renewable energy is breaking records and approaching leadership positions, but the success of this transition depends on balancing innovative green solutions with the security of energy systems through traditional resources.
Coal: Stable Market Amid Continuing High Demand
Despite the accelerated development of renewable energy, the global coal market continues to be characterized by substantial consumption volumes and stable demand, especially in Asia. In the Asia-Pacific region, economic growth and electricity needs maintain a high appetite for coal fuel. China — the world’s largest consumer and producer of coal — recorded record levels again in 2025. According to official data, coal production in China reached about 4.83 billion tons (+1.2% year-on-year), which slightly exceeding the previous year’s level, but remains an enormous figure. The coal mines in China are barely managing to meet rising demand: during peak load periods (for example, during hot summer months when air conditioning is widely used), the country burns nearly record amounts of coal, with internal supplies barely keeping up. India, with its extensive coal reserves, also continues to rely heavily on coal. Over 70% of electricity in India is still generated by coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption continues to increase with the country's economic growth and rising energy demand. Other developing Asian countries — such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Bangladesh — are all implementing projects to construct new coal-fired power plants to meet growing electricity demand and prevent energy deficits.
The supply side of the global coal market has also responded to the sustained high demand. Major coal exporters — Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa, and others — have increased their production and export supplies of thermal coal in recent years. This has allowed them to fulfill the needs of major importers, particularly in East Asia, and prevent shortages. After price surges in 2022, the situation has normalized: thermal coal prices returned to more acceptable levels and fluctuated within a relatively narrow range throughout 2025. Prices are maintained at levels favorable for producers while being manageable for consumers, indicating a balance of interests has been achieved. Although many countries advocate for reducing coal usage as part of their climate change mitigation efforts, in the short term, this resource remains indispensable for ensuring stable energy system supplies. Analysts agree that over the next 5–10 years, coal generation, particularly in Asia, will maintain significant relevance. Even with the accelerated development of renewable energy and the gradual phasing out of coal from energy systems, the decarbonization process will extend over years, if not decades.
Thus, the coal sector is currently experiencing a period of relative equilibrium. Demand remains consistently high, yet it is supported by growing supply, and prices remain moderate. Coal continues to serve as one of the pillars of global energy, especially in rapidly growing economies. Industry attention is focused on finding a balance between climate commitments and meeting current energy needs — while solutions are not yet fully realized, coal will continue to play its significant role in the global energy mix.
Russian Oil and Gas Sector: Stabilization of the Fuel Market and Declining Production
In the domestic fuel market in Russia, the situation has gradually normalized after last year's turmoil, thanks to measures taken by authorities. In mid-2025, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel in the country broke historical records due to a combination of factors: seasonal peak demand, limited supply due to repairs and outages at several refineries, and traders’ attempts to capitalize on price differences. In response, the government intervened rapidly to prevent shortages and protect consumers from price shocks. By August, emergency market regulation measures were implemented, which remained in effect for several months:
- Export Restrictions. A complete ban on the export of automobile gasoline and diesel, introduced in the summer, was extended until the end of September 2025. This measure allowed additional fuel volumes to be directed to the domestic market. From October, export restrictions were partially eased: large oil refineries (with sufficient resources for internal supply) were gradually allowed to resume limited exports abroad. However, for independent small refineries and traders, the embargo largely remained in place to prevent the leak of significant volumes. This differentiated approach helped avoid a new surge in exports immediately following the lifting of the ban.
- Market Supply Control. Authorities stepped up monitoring of fuel distribution within the country. Producers were instructed to prioritize domestic market needs, avoiding mutual resales on the exchange that previously inflated prices. Following unscheduled shutdowns of several refineries due to accidents and drone attacks, fuel redistribution from other plants was arranged promptly, along with the use of reserves. Simultaneously, the government, in collaboration with exchange regulators, is working on implementing long-term measures – such as the development of a direct contracting system between refineries and final networks of gas stations, to reduce price dependence on market volatility.
- Subsidies and Dampers. The state continues to provide financial support to oil companies for market stabilization. The reverse excise mechanism on oil products ("damper") remains in place, compensating refiners for lost income when supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices below export alternatives. Thanks to these subsidies, oil companies retain economic incentives to prioritize domestic demand without realizing excessive revenues through exports.
The complex of measures implemented yielded tangible results by the end of 2025. Exchange wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel in Russia retreated from the peak values of August, and retail prices at gas stations increased relatively moderately — about 5–7% for the entire past year, which is close to overall inflation. The supply of fuel to gas stations was restored, and queues or shortages were avoided even during the agricultural season. The government expressed its readiness to continue proactive measures: in the event of another price surge, export restrictions may be reinstated, and additional resources from federal reserves will be dispatched to regions promptly. Monitoring of the situation remains at a high level — a specialized headquarters led by the Deputy Prime Minister regularly oversees the market.
External challenges for the Russian oil and gas sector persist. In the face of sanctions and market restrictions, Russian oil production saw a slight decline by the end of 2025. According to industry statistics, output decreased by approximately 73,000 barrels per day in December compared to November, reaching about 9.3 million barrels per day. This can be attributed to both voluntary export restrictions under agreements with OPEC+ and temporary factors—such as a decrease in processing due to infrastructure incidents. Consequently, total oil and gas revenues for the Russian budget significantly declined compared to the level a year ago (estimates suggest that in January, revenues could be nearly 45–50% lower than in January 2025). This was influenced by a combination of lower global prices, price discounts on Russian Urals oil, and reduced physical export volumes.
Nevertheless, the sector is adapting to new conditions. Russian oil companies continue to actively redirect export flows to friendly countries in Asia and are striving to optimize logistics bypass options, including a "shadow fleet" of tankers, to supply oil to global markets despite sanctions. The state, in turn, supports the industry with budgetary measures — from flexible tax maneuvering (adjusting the damper mechanism and export duties) to direct support for specific infrastructure projects, such as developing port capacities for eastern exports. Thanks to these efforts, the Russian energy sector retains relative stability in production and sales, albeit with lower profits. Moving forward, a key issue for the sector will be the balance between the necessity of supporting production and the domestic fuel market while striving to preserve export revenues amid ongoing sanction pressures. Russian authorities emphasize the priority of the country's energy security and a moderate price level for the economy, hence internal stability in fuel supply will continue to be paramount, even at the cost of limiting external sales. Concurrently, it is anticipated that as global prices stabilize and new bypass sales channels emerge, Russia will gradually recover some of its lost export positions without repeating the crisis in its domestic fuel market.
