Current Trends in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Market as of November 19, 2025: Oil Price Decline, Rising Gas Demand Due to Cold Weather, Increasing Sanctions, Renewable Energy Dynamics, and the Situation with Oil Products and Refining. Analysis for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
The current events in the oil, gas, and energy sector as of November 19, 2025, unfold under the influence of contradictory factors. **Oil prices** continue to face downward pressure due to oversupply: Brent quotes remain around local lows ($63–64 per barrel, WTI around $59–60), reflecting a surplus in the market. Simultaneously, the European **gas market** has experienced price stability amid full storage levels and a mild autumn – market gas prices dropped to one-and-a-half-year lows (~$370 per thousand cubic meters), although forecasts of sharp cold weather in Europe are returning volatility and supporting demand. At the geopolitical level, sanction pressures intensify: the West is preparing new restrictions against Russian energy exports, which is already altering global oil trading flows. Meanwhile, the **global energy transition** is gaining momentum – investments in renewable sources are hitting records, although traditional resources still play a key role in meeting global demand. In Russia, emergency government measures have stabilized the domestic fuel market following a recent crisis, normalizing supplies to gas stations. Below is a detailed overview of key industry segments – oil, gas, geopolitics, power generation, coal sector, VRE, as well as the oil products and refining market.
Oil Market: Oversupply Pressures Prices
The global oil market is entering winter with signs of saturation. After a brief rebound last week, prices are once again stagnating at lower levels: Brent is holding within the range of $60–64 per barrel, significantly down from levels a month ago and roughly 10–15% lower than a year ago. The main factor is the preemptive increase in supply against slowly growing demand, creating an oil surplus and suppressing prices. Global energy reserves remain high, and traders are pricing in a scenario of maintaining oversupply in Q4.
- OPEC+ and other producers' output: the OPEC+ oil alliance has steadily increased production in 2025, returning previously restricted volumes to the market. Since the beginning of the year, total global supply has increased by approximately 5–6 million barrels/day, primarily due to OPEC+ countries and record output increases in the US and Brazil. While prices remain above critical levels for producers (~$50), members of the alliance are not rushing to announce new cuts. However, OPEC+ representatives have indicated that they are prepared to cut production again in 2026 if prices fall too low.
- Demand and economic situation: global oil consumption growth has slowed due to weak macroeconomic dynamics. The slowdown in China's economy, high interest rates in the US and EU, and energy-saving measures – all these factors are limiting demand growth. It is expected that in 2025, global oil consumption will increase by less than +0.8 million barrels/day (for comparison: +2 million barrels/day in 2023). Nevertheless, certain segments remain resilient: the onset of the heating season supports demand for oil products (diesel, fuel oil), and air travel and road traffic are gradually increasing.
- Geopolitical risks: tensions amid sanctions and conflicts occasionally make themselves felt, but their influence is short-term. For instance, a drone attack on the port of Novorossiysk last week temporarily halted exports, causing prices to spike by more than 2%. However, a rapid restoration of shipments returned the market to a downward trend. Overall, even sharp incidents currently only temporarily support prices, yielding to the more significant fundamental factors of market oversupply.
Gas Market: Cold Weather in Europe and LNG's Role
The gas market has seen relative stability as autumn wanes, but the upcoming winter is making new corrections. Europe approaches the heating season with substantial reserves: underground gas storage facilities are approximately 85–90% full, providing a solid cushion. Thanks to mild weather in September-October, European gas prices dropped to their lowest levels since spring 2024 – TTF futures fell below €31 per MWh (~$370 per 1000 cubic meters). However, forecasts for a sharp cold wave in Western Europe (5–7°C below normal) have led to rising prices from the reached bottom: with the onset of cold, gas demand for heating is rapidly increasing, turning the market upward.
- Demand and supply balance: meteorologists foresee a significant increase in gas consumption in the coming weeks due to cold weather. If winter proves harsh, even record reserves may only last until the end of the season – accelerated gas withdrawals from storage can trigger a new round of price spikes and necessitate increased imports. Nonetheless, current demand levels in the EU are still below pre-crisis levels: industries and households that experienced the energy crisis of 2022–2023 have implemented energy-saving measures. This offers hope that, during a mild winter, existing reserves will be sufficient to navigate peaks without fuel shortages.
- The Role of LNG and External Supplies: Importing liquefied natural gas remains a key factor of stability. European companies continue to receive large volumes of LNG from various regions – from the USA and Qatar to Africa. Record US LNG exports and increased capacities in the Middle East have ensured a high supply on the global market, keeping spot prices relatively low. Meanwhile, demand in Asia remains subdued: the economies of China and other countries in the region are cooling, and storage facilities in East Asia are full, thus, competition between Europe and Asia for LNG cargoes is currently absent. This has allowed additional tankers to be directed to the EU, smoothing seasonal fluctuations. Alternative pipeline supplies to Europe also remain steady: Norway, Algeria, and other exporters continue to reliably cover a significant part of the EU's needs, replacing the lost Russian gas.
International Situation: Sanctions and Reorientation of Energy Exports
**Geopolitical factors** continue to significantly influence the fuel and energy complex. In November, the West intensified sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector. **The USA** imposed stringent restrictions on the largest oil companies in Russia, including "Rosneft" and "Lukoil," setting a deadline of November 21 for concluding any operations with them. As a result, major Asian importers have begun adjusting their actions: several Indian refineries have suspended new purchases of Russian oil for December delivery, and Chinese state-owned companies have temporarily reduced purchases of maritime cargoes. These moves by the two primary buyers of Russian crude compel Moscow to offer even larger discounts to sell volumes – the discount for Urals grade reached ~$4 to Brent (a yearly maximum). The **European Union** has prepared its 18th sanctions package, which includes further restrictions: from tightening the price cap on oil (discussing a reduction to ~$47 per barrel) to sanctions against the tanker "shadow fleet" and specific foreign refineries connected to processing Russian crude. Although the effectiveness of the new measures is limited (Russia is actively redirecting exports to friendly countries and using alternative logistics), the uncertainty caused by sanctions is dampening investment activity and forcing companies to restructure supply chains.
Against this backdrop, a reorientation of global **energy flows** is occurring. Russian oil and oil products exports are increasingly shifting towards Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, compensating for the drop in supplies to Europe. India, which had previously increased imports of Russian oil due to generous discounts, is now, under external pressure, diversifying its sources and aiming to reduce dependence on a single supplier in the long term. The country has initiated programs to increase its own production – national companies are drilling new deepwater wells to strengthen energy security. China continues to be the largest buyer of Russian hydrocarbons, not joining Western restrictions, but Beijing is also increasing its domestic oil (+1–2% annually) and gas (+5–6% annually) production to reduce imports. Simultaneously, Chinese importers and the government are signing long-term contracts for supplies from various countries (Middle East, Latin America, USA – via LNG) to mitigate risks. Thus, global energy trade is gradually restructuring: Russia is having to explore new sales markets by offering competitive terms, while large consumers are balancing between energy benefits and geopolitical considerations.
Positive signals for the markets have come from specific steps towards de-escalation in international relations. A fragile ceasefire persists in one of the protracted conflicts in the Middle East, which has reduced the risk of oil supply disruptions from the region. Additionally, the USA and China recently agreed to a temporary trade truce at a recent summit, easing mutual tariffs – which improves forecasts for the global economy and energy demand. However, there have been no fundamental breakthroughs in resolving major geopolitical crises, so sanctions and trade restrictions will remain significant factors for the fuel and energy complex in the near future.
Power Generation: Grid Load and Record Generation
The global power generation sector in 2025 demonstrates resilience in the face of increasing loads and shifting generation structures. Many countries are setting new records for electricity consumption: an abnormally hot summer led to a surge in demand for air conditioning, and winter may bring peak loads during cold periods. Simultaneously, the accelerated transition to low-carbon generation continues – the share of renewable sources (solar and wind power) is steadily rising, setting historical maximums in the energy balance of several states. In the first half of 2025, global generation from renewables, as analysts estimate, surpassed that from coal-fired power plants for the first time. In certain economies (EU, USA, China), on some days, up to 80–100% of electricity comes from solar, wind, and other renewables. This reflects significant progress in the energy transition but also presents new challenges in maintaining the stability of energy systems.
- Reliability and capacity reserves: the rapid growth of solar and wind generation necessitates infrastructure modernization. Due to the variable nature of renewables, significant attention is being paid to the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage stations) and supporting capacities. To cover peak loads during cold winter evenings and calm periods, gas and coal power plants are still engaged, although their role is gradually diminishing. Energy companies are investing in "smart" grids and demand management systems to avoid overloads. Despite extreme temperatures and record consumption, the energy systems of developed countries in 2025 largely passed the test without mass outages, instilling confidence ahead of the upcoming winter.
- Government policy: governments of leading economies support the trend towards decarbonizing power generation. In the European Union, new targets for the share of renewable energy by 2030 have been established, incentivizing the construction of wind farms and solar stations. In the USA, subsidy programs and tax incentives for clean energy continue, although their parameters may be revised depending on the political climate. China and India are implementing large-scale state projects to develop power networks and storage, while simultaneously increasing their own generation through renewables and nuclear energy. There is a growing interest in innovative technologies worldwide – from "green" hydrogen to new modular nuclear reactors – as promising elements of the future energy system.
Coal Sector: Demand Plateau and Pressure on Production
The global coal sector is at a turning point. After several years of growth, coal consumption has reached historically high levels and begins to stabilize. By the end of 2024, global coal consumption reached a record ~8.8 billion tons, but in 2025 this figure is no longer growing – demand has effectively plateaued. Strengthening environmental policies and competition from cheap renewables are prompting many countries to abandon plans to expand coal generation. International forecasts agree that in 2025–2026, a gradual decline in coal consumption will begin as the energy transition accelerates.
- Oversupply and prices: despite stagnating demand, global coal production remains near maximum levels. Major producers (China, India, Indonesia, Australia) maintain high production levels, and some exporters even increased volumes, trying to capitalize on last year's high prices. As a result, excess stocks have built up in the market, causing coal prices to fall to their lowest levels in recent years. This pressure has been particularly felt by high-cost companies. Many coal mines in the US and Europe are cutting production, while in Russia, exporters face declining profits due to the depreciation of raw materials and sanctions limiting supplies. The market situation is forcing players to reassess investment plans: new projects are being frozen, and existing capacities are being optimized to meet lower demand.
- Transition strategy: although coal remains an essential part of the energy balance in several countries (particularly in Asia), the industry is preparing for reduction in the long term. Governments are imposing increasingly stringent environmental standards, incentivizing power plants to switch to gas and renewables, and implementing carbon taxes. Major energy companies are announcing targets to phase out coal generation by 2030–2040. Meanwhile, some developing economies are seeking financial support to transition away from coal: investment programs are being discussed at international forums to replace coal capacities with "clean" energy without jeopardizing energy security. Thus, the coal sector is under double pressure – market and regulatory – and has already entered a phase of structural decline.
Renewable Energy: Record Investments and Climate Goals
Renewable energy continues to set new maxima, becoming the primary driver of industry development. The year 2025 promises to be a record year for the installation of renewable energy capacity: it is estimated that about 600–700 GW of new generating capacity based on solar, wind, and other sources will be added globally throughout the year – even more than in the previous year of 2024 (which was around 580 GW). The solar and wind energy sector is receiving massive investments worldwide as countries strive to meet their climate commitments. However, experts note that to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, the pace of "green" generation installation must further accelerate – potentially tripling annual volumes by the decade's end.
- International climate agenda: at the upcoming COP30 summit, world leaders will discuss further enhancements to measures against climate change. Many countries have already announced plans to increase the share of renewable energy in their energy balance by 2030 (the EU, China, India, and the USA are revising targets upwards). An initiative for a complete phase-out of coal generation in the coming decades is under discussion. At the same time, challenges remain – from the need to modernize power grids to securing raw materials for the production of solar panels and batteries. Despite individual hurdles (such as reductions in subsidies in some jurisdictions), the global trend towards a transition to clean energy is considered irreversible: **renewable technologies** are becoming cheaper, attracting investor interest.
- Records and technologies: The year 2025 has seen significant successes in the renewable energy sector. In certain regions (like Southern Australia and parts of Europe), wind and solar stations covered 100% of the demand for electricity for several hours, demonstrating the potential of a carbon-free system. Innovations continue to be implemented: the largest energy storage systems in the world are being built to smooth generation fluctuations, and "green" hydrogen projects for storing excess electricity are being developed. Offshore wind, floating solar stations, geothermal sources – all this expands the arsenal of renewable energy. Overall, the share of renewable energy in global electricity production is approaching 35–40%. It is expected that within a few years, more than half of the growth in energy consumption will be covered precisely by renewable sources, reducing the economy's dependence on fossil fuels.
Refining and Fuel Market: Stabilization After the Crisis
Following the volatility of early autumn, the global oil products market is showing signs of stabilization. The decline in oil prices and the end of the summer holiday season allowed refineries to increase fuel output and replenish gasoline and diesel stocks. In Europe and the USA, wholesale fuel prices have retreated from peak levels of September, which has also reflected at gas stations: the prices for gasoline and diesel fuel for consumers have moderately decreased relative to early autumn levels. Thus, before winter, the situation in foreign fuel markets is more balanced than it was a couple of months ago.
- Global refining: this autumn, refiners worldwide increased their capacity utilization, taking advantage of a respite in rising prices. The export of oil products from Middle Eastern and Asian countries partially replaced the lost volumes from Russia, where restrictions were in place. Additionally, seasonal factors played a role: the end of the peak summer demand for gasoline allowed for a buildup of reserve volumes. As a result, on key markets (North America, Europe), wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel returned to levels seen at the beginning of summer 2025. It is expected that winter demand for distillates (diesel, fuel oil) will increase for heating purposes, but provided oil prices remain stable, sharp jumps in fuel costs are not anticipated.
- The Russian fuel market: domestically, the situation was stabilized following the September gasoline crisis. The Russian government applied emergency measures: a ban on the export of automotive gasoline was introduced, and exports of diesel fuel were significantly restricted, with oil companies instructed to prioritize domestic market supply. These actions yielded quick results – by November, wholesale prices on the exchange significantly decreased from their peaks, and retail prices at gas stations ceased to rise. The shortage of gasoline grades Ai-92 and Ai-95 in affected regions has been eliminated, and gas stations are sufficiently resourced. Authorities have extended the export ban on gasoline until the end of December to cement stability, while simultaneously developing long-term mechanisms to prevent similar crises (adjusting dampers, incentivizing refineries to increase fuel production during the off-season, etc.). Overall, refining in Russia has restored previous volumes, allowing for a confident passage of the winter period without supply disruptions to consumers.
Thus, as of November 19, 2025, the oil, gas, and energy markets are characterized by relatively moderate prices and stable supplies, despite the persisting risks of sanctions and weather challenges. Investors and participants in the energy sector are closely monitoring the evolving situation – from OPEC+ decisions and winter weather forecasts to the outcomes of international negotiations and climate summits – as these factors will determine energy prices dynamics and the industry's state in the coming months.
