Overview of the Oil, Gas, and Energy Market for Saturday, November 15, 2025: Stable Oil Prices, Sanction Pressure on the Russian Energy Sector, Europe's Confidence in Gas Supplies, and Preparation for COP30.
Key Takeaways
- Oil: Global oil prices stabilized after a recent drop, ending the week at local minima amid signs of oversupply and expectations for OPEC+ decisions.
- Gas and Winter: Europe enters the winter with high gas storage levels (around 85%) and declares readiness to navigate the heating season without shortages, although the energy market remains dependent on weather and LNG imports.
- Sanctions: Increased sanction pressure on the Russian oil and gas sector (including sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft) forces market participants to restructure supply chains; Russian companies are offering discounts and employing shadow tanker fleets to maintain exports.
- USA and Canada: North American oil production remains at record levels (~13 million bbl/day in the US), exports of oil and LNG are rising, and major infrastructure projects (pipelines, terminals) are resuming with government support.
- Asia: China is experiencing a slowdown in energy demand growth and planned maintenance at major refineries, while India continues to increase imports of cheap oil, remaining one of the drivers of global demand.
- New Projects: New promising projects are emerging in commodity markets – from oil and gas field developments in South America to nuclear power plant construction plans – indicating ongoing investments in the energy sector even in the context of climate agendas.
Oil Market: Price Stability Amid Expectations and Oversupply
Prices. Following a significant decline earlier this week, global oil prices are showing relative stability as the trading week closes. Benchmark Brent is holding around $62–63 per barrel, while US WTI is near $59. These levels are close to recent lows and reflect the continued presence of excess supply in the market. Investors are assessing production overhang risks: according to updated OPEC forecasts, global supply may exceed demand as early as 2026, while the International Energy Agency also points to a leading rise in non-OPEC production. Consequently, Brent and WTI prices are under pressure, showing a slight decline over the week.
Supply and Demand Factors. Several factors are influencing price dynamics:
- High Supply: Oil production remains at historically high levels. OPEC+ countries, after easing restrictions, are gradually increasing exports – in early November, the alliance allowed a symbolic bump in quotas (~+0.14 million bbl/day from December), postponing more significant steps until 2026. Concurrently, US oil production has reached record levels (around 13 million bbl/day) due to the shale boom and deregulation. Some previously restricted barrels are returning to the market, such as resuming exports from the Kurdish oil region in Iraq. Collectively, this supports an oil surplus in the market.
- Slowing Demand: Global demand for oil is rising much more slowly than in previous years. China's economic slowdown, high prices over the past years, and the push for energy efficiency are limiting consumption. According to IEA estimates, the global demand increase in 2025 will be less than 1 million bbl/day (compared to over 2 million in 2023). The rapid spread of electric transport is also starting to impact long-term gasoline demand prospects.
- Stocks and Floating Reserves: Commercial oil and petroleum reserves in key regions continue to grow. In the US, crude oil stocks rose by about ~1.3 million barrels last week, with similar trends reported in Europe and Asia. Additionally, significant volumes of oil are accumulating in floating storage – traders estimate that around 1 billion barrels of oil are currently aboard tankers, some of which are carrying hard-to-sell sanctioned oil. This buildup puts further pressure on prices.
Market Expectations. Despite clear signs of oversupply, price declines are being tempered by several factors. Geopolitical risks and fears of supply disruptions create a sort of floor for prices around $60 per barrel – market participants are mindful of potential sudden events (escalation of conflicts, force majeure) that could reduce supply. Furthermore, an OPEC+ ministerial meeting is approaching, and markets anticipate that major exporters will not allow prices to fall below critical levels. Saudi Arabia and its partners have indicated they are willing to reconsider production and extend voluntary restrictions if price declines intensify. As such, the consensus forecast for the coming weeks is for continued moderately low prices without sharp fluctuations unless unusual events occur. In these conditions, oil companies are focusing on cost reduction and hedging, planning their 2026 budgets based on cautious price expectations.
Sanction Pressure: Restructuring Russia's Export Flows
New Western sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector are entering a critical phase. In October, the US included major Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft in sanction lists, requiring counterparties to conclude all operations with them by November 21. This deadline is approaching, and Russian market participants are scrambling to adapt to new conditions. According to sources, Lukoil has approached the US Treasury for an extension of the deadline for winding down operations, citing the need for more time to close contracts and sell foreign assets. While a decision is yet to be announced, the company's overseas transactions remain in limbo, including its operational activities at refineries and trading subsidiaries abroad. For instance, Lukoil previously attempted to sell several international assets to trader Gunvor, but in November, US authorities blocked this deal.
Export Adaptation. The Russian oil and gas sector is searching for alternative outlets under sanction pressure. Traditional buyers are restructuring supply chains: India's largest state-owned company Indian Oil stipulated in a new oil tender that suppliers and shipping ports must not be sanctioned by the US, EU, or Britain. This indicates that Indian refineries are willing to continue purchasing Russian oil but through intermediaries from third countries, avoiding direct dealings with sanctioned entities. Another Indian company, Nayara Energy (partially owned by Rosneft), stated that it would maintain large volumes of imports from Russia despite external pressure. Simultaneously, direct purchases of Russian oil by leading players in China have significantly decreased: fearing secondary sanctions, several state and independent refiners in the PRC have cut imports from Russia. Reports suggest that supplies of Russian oil to China have halved from previous volumes – particularly after one of the Chinese refineries was sanctioned by the EU and Britain for cooperating with Russia. This led to a decline in prices for Eastern varieties (ESPO, "Sokol"), and Russian exporters had to redirect these volumes to other countries at substantial discounts.
Alternative Logistics. To maintain exports, Moscow is increasingly utilizing shadow mechanisms. Oil sales are conducted through little-known traders registered in friendly jurisdictions, and transport is carried out by a "dark fleet" of old tankers that have officially changed ownership. These vessels disable transponders and transfer oil on the high seas, disguising its origin. Although this scheme involves higher costs and risks (environmental and insurance), it allows Russian oil to find its way to markets in Asia and Africa outside official channels. Analysts note that the share of Russian exports accounted for by "gray" schemes rose to record levels in 2025. Concurrently, Russia continues to develop trade in national currencies and barter agreements with several countries to bypass financial restrictions.
Domestic Market. Stringent measures by the Russian government to stabilize the domestic fuel market, implemented earlier this fall, continue to take effect. Export restrictions on gasoline and diesel introduced in September have been extended until the end of the year, which, along with damping payments to refineries, has allowed the domestic market for petroleum products to be saturated. Wholesale fuel prices in Russia have retreated from the peak levels of August, while retail prices have ceased to rise. Thus, despite external pressures, the Russian oil industry has thus far managed to avoid acute disruptions: the domestic market is protected by manual regulation, and export flows have been shifted in line with the "Eastern pivot." However, experts warn that further tightening of sanctions or new physical threats (such as drone attacks on infrastructure) could inflict more serious damage to export revenues and production in the future.
USA and Canada: Record Production and Infrastructure Renaissance
The North American energy sector is demonstrating steady growth at the end of 2025, setting the tone for the global market. In the United States, oil production remains at record levels – around 13 million bbl/day, comparable to the best pre-crisis periods. US producers, having capitalized on favorable prices from the previous year, have ramped up drilling activity, particularly in the shale fields of Texas and New Mexico. While growth rates slowed in 2025, the US confidently retains its status as the largest oil producer.
Export Growth. The US has also increased exports of oil and gas thanks to high production levels. American oil exports consistently exceed 4 million bbl/day, heading to Europe, Asia, and Latin America. The US has effectively become one of the key global exporters, providing allies with raw materials amid sanctions against other producers. Concurrently, liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the US are breaking records: in 2025, several new LNG terminals on the Gulf Coast are expected to come online, increasing total capacity to ~150 billion cubic meters per year. This solidifies the US's position as a leading gas supplier in the global market – US LNG has helped Europe offset the loss of Russian pipeline gas and competes for market share in Asia.
Infrastructure and Policy. The US administration is stimulating the energy sector by easing regulatory barriers. In 2025, some oil and gas provinces previously closed due to environmental restrictions have been reopened for development. Moreover, the large-scale infrastructure project — the Keystone XL pipeline (linking Canadian oil sands with US refining) -- received the green light for resumption of construction halted back in 2021. This decision, supported by the administration, aims to increase the reliability of heavy oil supplies from Canada and create jobs. At the same time, Canada and the United States are investing in the expansion of pipelines and export terminals on the Pacific coast to expedite the delivery of energy resources to Asian markets. Canadian producers, capitalizing on demand, have ramped up production in Alberta and are planning new LNG projects on the west coast.
Balance of Interests. Despite support for traditional fuels, the energy transition is underway in North America. Major oil and gas corporations are investing in carbon capture, "green" hydrogen, and renewable energy projects in an effort to diversify business models. Governments in the US and Canada proclaim their commitment to climate goals but simultaneously emphasize the need to strengthen energy security via domestic production. This dual approach — increasing oil and gas extraction now while simultaneously advancing clean technologies — reflects an attempt to strike a balance between economic demands and climate commitments.
Asia: Demand Under Control, China Hesitant, India Accelerating
The Asian region remains a key consumer of energy resources, but demand dynamics in the largest Asian economies are changing somewhat. China, once the engine of global oil and gas consumption growth, is showing more moderate appetite for resources in 2025. The economic growth of the PRC has slowed, affecting oil demand — China's crude oil imports have stabilized around 11 million bbl/day and are no longer breaking records as they did previously. Additionally, the country is actively electrifying transport and developing energy-efficient technologies, which is reducing the growth rate of gasoline and diesel consumption. An indirect indicator of market balance is PetroChina's decision to temporarily halt one of the largest refineries in Yunnan, with a capacity of 13 million tons per year, for repairs. From November 15 to January 15, this plant will undergo planned upgrades, and fuel supplies to southwestern China will be redirected from other sources. The two-month downtime of such a large facility indicates that the system has sufficient reserves and backup capacities to conduct upgrades without risking deficits of gasoline or diesel in the region.
India. In contrast to China, India maintains a high growth rate in energy consumption in 2025. The world's second-most populous country is increasing oil imports, leveraging the accessibility of cheaper barrels from Russia and the Middle East. According to traders, Indian oil imports reached a historical peak of over 5 million bbl/day in the fall, satisfying the growing demand for fuel within the economy. Meanwhile, Indian refineries are actively processing a variety of crude grades, seeking discounts and benefits from changing global flows. The Indian government is also accelerating the development of domestic production and infrastructure: LNG receiving terminals are being expanded, and new pipelines are being constructed for gas distribution across the country. Growth in gas generation and renewable energy is also a priority for New Delhi – the country is investing in solar and wind power plants, planning to significantly reduce coal dependency by 2030. Nevertheless, coal remains the base fuel for India for now: in 2025, new modern coal blocks will be commissioned to satisfy the rising demand for electricity.
Other Asian Economies. Southeast Asian countries are witnessing a similar trend: energy consumption is increasing with industrial development, but governments are trying to reduce import dependency. Indonesia and Vietnam are implementing programs to develop their oil and gas production and are building LNG terminals to diversify gas supplies. China, alongside controlling demand, is investing in strategic oil reserves and accelerating the transition to renewable sources – renewable energy accounts for over 30% of the PRC's energy system. However, coal still plays a significant role in China: after last year's electricity supply disruptions, the authorities increased domestic coal production to a record 4.6 billion tons per year to avert deficits. Overall, Asia is balancing between traditional and new energy sources: on one hand, the region remains the main driver of oil and gas demand, while on the other, it is experiencing the world’s fastest growth rates in green energy.
Europe: Confidence in Stockpiles, but Market Dependent on Weather
The European energy market is entering winter relatively prepared, though not without vulnerabilities. Gas Sector: Underground gas storage in the EU is filled to about 85% of capacity by mid-November – this is below nearly 100% a year ago but still provides a solid buffer in case of a cold winter. A warm autumn has allowed EU countries to conserve fuel: gas consumption in October and early November was below average levels, helping to preserve stocks. Moreover, supply diversification continues: Europe is steadily receiving record volumes of LNG from the US, Qatar, and Africa, almost fully compensating for the halted pipeline gas imports from Russia. Wholesale gas prices in the EU remain moderate at around $400-500 per thousand cubic meters, far from the peaks during the 2022 crisis. The European Commission reported this week that, even with a colder winter, Europe has sufficient supplies and current supplies to avoid acute shortages without implementing emergency austerity measures.
Electricity and Renewables. In the electricity sector, Europe also demonstrates resilience, but depends on natural factors. Wind energy and hydropower generation have faced setbacks in 2025: due to prolonged calm and summer droughts, renewable energy production in several EU countries has decreased by about 5-7% compared to the previous year. This has led operators to increase the load on traditional capacities. For example, Germany made up for the wind drop with increased output from gas and even coal-fired power plants (gas electricity generation in Germany increased by ~15% year-on-year in 10 months, while coal generation rose by 4%). Thanks to the availability of reserve capacities and sufficient fuel supply, significant problems with electricity supply have not arisen. However, the situation remains fragile: continued low wind or gas supply disruptions could trigger price spikes. European regulators are keeping stabilization measures ready – from joint gas procurement mechanisms to the temporary price cap on the gas exchange, which was adopted last year.
Policy and Plans. Realizing the vulnerabilities of the energy system, the EU member states have intensified efforts to accelerate the energy transition. Investments in energy storage, cross-border electricity grids, and the expansion of renewable generation are being universally encouraged. The EU recently extended its target programs to reduce gas consumption by 15% for 2026 and allocated additional funds for installing heat pumps and improving energy efficiency in buildings. The reform of the electricity market is also under discussion to better integrate renewables and protect consumers from price volatility. In the short term, Europe hopes to navigate this winter without turmoil – much will depend on weather conditions. However, in the strategic context, Europeans are drawing lessons from the gas crisis and are accelerating efforts to reduce dependencies: by 2030, the EU plans to build tens of gigawatts of new renewable energy and strengthen LNG infrastructure while retaining part of nuclear generation for system stability.
New Players: Guyana at a Crossroads and Other Projects
New growth points are emerging on the global oil map, particularly in developing countries. One of the brightest examples is Guyana in South America, where rich oil fields have been discovered in recent years. By 2025, production in Guyana has already exceeded 0.6 million bbl/day, and the country has become an important oil exporter in the Western Hemisphere. Projects under the management of an international consortium (ExxonMobil, Hess, and CNOOC) are steadily bringing floating production platforms into operation on the giant offshore Stabroek block. However, Guyana's oil boom is now facing a political factor: general elections are expected in December, and the outcome of the vote may affect the operating conditions for investors.
Political Risks. Opposition forces in Guyana are expressing intentions to reconsider the terms of agreements with oil companies, arguing that the state's share in profits is insufficient. Calls are being made to increase tax burdens on the oil sector and secure greater benefits for the country from oil exports. These statements raise concerns among investors: while existing contracts are protected, the uncertainty may affect the timing of new investment decisions. Analysts highlight that the influx of oil dollars has already substantially accelerated Guyana's economic growth (GDP has increased by tens of percent), but has simultaneously exposed issues of inequality and revenue management. The current and future government faces the task of ensuring transparent distribution of oil revenues and balancing the interests of investors and the populace.
Other Projects. In addition to Guyana, other significant projects are developing on the global energy horizon. In neighboring Suriname, a consortium led by Petronas is preparing to develop the recently discovered offshore gas field Sloanea – plans are in place to establish a floating LNG plant and begin gas exports by the early 2030s. In Namibia, promising oil deposits have been discovered offshore, and major companies are evaluating the commercial potential of the region, capable of becoming "the new Guyana" in Africa. The Middle East is also not lagging: Saudi Arabia is actively promoting a megaproject for developing the Jafurah gas field with the aim of leading in blue hydrogen and ammonia exports by the end of the decade. These initiatives indicate that, despite the global shift towards reducing hydrocarbons, investments in oil and gas extraction continue – they are merely shifting to new regions and accompanied by demands for cleaner and more efficient technologies.
Climate Agenda: Expectations Ahead of COP30
In late November, global attention will be focused on COP30 – the annual UN climate conference, which will take place in the city of Belém (Brazil). At this event, hundreds of countries will again discuss ways to limit global warming, placing the energy sector at the center of discussions. The main question is how to balance energy security with the necessity to reduce emissions. Developed countries and international organizations are calling for a quicker phase-out of coal and a gradual reduction in oil and gas consumption over the coming decades. Over 100 countries have already signed declarations for a gradual phase-out of coal generation by the 2040s. The EU is considering a target for phased reductions in oil use. However, major hydrocarbon producers approach such initiatives cautiously. OPEC insists that oil and gas will remain a significant part of the energy balance for many years to come and that investments in extraction must continue, or the world risks facing a new price shock by the end of the decade.
Division of Positions. Intense debates are expected at COP30 between a bloc of countries demanding more decisive actions for decarbonization and states dependent on oil, gas, and coal exports. The former group includes many island nations, European countries, and the scientific community – they point to the increasing frequency of climate disasters and the urgent need to cut CO2 emissions. The latter group, alongside OPEC states, includes some developing countries arguing that they need time and funding to transition to clean energy. It is already clear that achieving full consensus will be challenging. Nevertheless, a number of initiatives are likely to gain traction: these include the launch of global carbon trading mechanisms and increased funding for green energy in poorer countries.
Business Impact. For investors and energy companies, the climate agenda signifies the intensification of long-term trends. G7 countries and the EU plan to introduce stricter standards regarding the carbon footprint of products – for instance, calculations of emissions during oil extraction and transport may soon affect market access. Banks and funds continue to gradually reduce financing for new coal projects and are more cautious in evaluating oil and gas assets with long payback periods. At the same time, the rising demand for metals and technologies for renewable energy and energy storage opens new opportunities for investments. Additional contributions to the development of hydrogen infrastructure, nuclear energy (as a carbon-free basis for generation), and large-scale CO2 storage are anticipated at COP30. Thus, the global energy sector stands on the brink of major changes: while oil, gas, and coal remain foundational to the global energy system, the political direction increasingly shifts toward sustainable development. The outcomes of the climate summit in Brazil will provide insights into how quickly governments intend to move towards reducing the use of fossil fuels in the coming decade.
