Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy as of February 22, 2026: Expectations from OPEC+, Oil and Gas Price Dynamics, LNG Market, Refinery Maintenance Season, Oil Products, Electricity, Renewable Energy, and Coal. A Global Overview for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
The global energy sector is entering the final week of February with a shift in investor focus from a "winter deficit" to assessing supply and demand balances for the second quarter. Oil and gas prices remain sensitive to geopolitical tensions and logistics, while the oil products and refining segment is experiencing a maintenance season, impacting spreads and profitability. In the electricity sector and renewables, the discussion is intensifying around energy costs for industries and the acceleration of investments in grid and system flexibility.
Oil: The Market is Pricing in a Higher Supply Scenario for Q2
The key intrigue of the week is the expectation that the OPEC+ alliance may shift from a cautious hold on barrels to a gradual increase in production as early as spring, should demand prove resilient and oil prices maintain stability. For the global balance, this is more significant than short-term fluctuations in quotes: the market is beginning to reassess stock trajectories and risk premiums in advance.
Additionally, discussions are intensifying regarding how quickly production outside OPEC+ will grow in 2026 and how disciplined participants in the deal can adhere to quotas, especially against the backdrop of budgetary needs and competition for market share.
OPEC+ and Geopolitics: A Flexible Strategy Instead of Firm Promises
Signals from the countries participating in the deal convey a consistent logic: decisions regarding production will depend on "market conditions" and may be adapted as demand and risks change. For investors, this indicates a growing role for "event volatility" — reactions to announcements, meetings, and informal benchmarks regarding target production levels.
The most significant risk factors for oil and oil products at present include:
- Geopolitical Premium (tensions in the Middle East, risks of sanctions and retaliatory measures);
- Sanction and Insurance Infrastructure (freight costs, availability of tankers, supply routes);
- Discipline within OPEC+ and the distribution of "space" for increasing production among leaders and countries with constraints.
In such conditions, the oil market is increasingly assessing not a "single figure" for production, but a range and speed of supply changes — which directly impacts the futures curve and hedging strategies.
Gas and LNG: Europe Remains Resilient but Sensitive to Supply
The European gas market, as of mid-February, demonstrated stability: prices at key hubs remained around winter levels (approximately €32/MWh), with weather and LNG flows being the primary drivers. Regulators and governments, evaluating the completion of the heating season, are increasingly emphasizing "structural resilience" — diversifying imports and managing inventories rather than resorting to emergency measures.
At the country level, two parallel trends are evident:
- Stabilization and Risk Management. In the largest EU economies, there is a strong emphasis on the sufficiency of gas supply for the remainder of the winter with current LNG and import flows.
- Energy Cost Policy. Certain countries are enhancing support for consumers and businesses to mitigate the impact of high electricity and gas prices on industries.
For the global LNG market, projects that expand supply and flexibility are crucial. A separate narrative is the development of floating liquefied gas (FLNG) facilities: these "floating plants" expedite the introduction of production in countries with limited land-based infrastructure and enhance the geographical diversification of LNG supply.
Refineries and Oil Products: The Maintenance Season Supports the Market, but Diesel is Cooling
The refinery segment is entering the traditional period of planned maintenance in the Northern Hemisphere. This simultaneously:
- Restricts crude oil processing (refining) and supports local oil product balances;
- Creates volatility in refining margins and "cracks" for gasoline and diesel;
- Increases the significance of logistics — flow between regions, availability of tankers, and terminals.
In recent weeks, declining values in the diesel market (gasoil/diesel) and weakening refining margins in certain markets have been noted, which is important for publicly traded refiners and integrated oil companies. As spring approaches, the market begins to turn its focus towards gasoline balance: a more "even" supply is expected in 2026, which could pressure gasoline cracks as refineries come out of maintenance.
The practical takeaway is that with the current structure of demand, oil products may behave divergently — and for investors, it becomes critical to distinguish between the narrative of "oil as a raw material" and "refinery margins and product spreads."
Coal: Asia Sets the Tone, but Competition from Gas and Renewables is Increasing
Coal remains a significant part of the energy balance in Asia, especially in electricity generation and metallurgy. By 2026, demand for coal increasingly depends on:
- The cost of gas and the availability of LNG in the region;
- The pace of renewable energy (RE) integration and grid limitations;
- The export policy of major suppliers and logistics (ports and freight).
For global energy players, this signifies that coal assets maintain cash flow at favorable prices, but their long-term valuation is increasingly constrained by regulatory risks and capital costs.
Electricity: Competitiveness of Industry Takes Center Stage
In the European electricity and gas market, there is an increasing political demand to lower wholesale prices and narrow spreads between countries. This is reflected in support measures and attempts to "smooth" price peaks for households and businesses.
For investors in the electricity sector, key themes on the horizon for 2026 include:
- Grid Infrastructure and Flexibility (storage, demand management, flexible generation);
- Reliability (reserve capacities and capacity market mechanisms);
- Cost of Capital and tariff regulation impacting project payback periods.
It is precisely the grid infrastructure and system balancing that are increasingly becoming the "bottleneck" for growth in the share of renewables.
Renewables and the Energy Transition: Investments Shift to Infrastructure and Supply Chains
Renewables remain a structural driver, but the market is becoming more pragmatic: not only new solar and wind farms but also grid projects, localization of components, access to critical materials, and expedited permitting processes are taking center stage. For the global energy transition, this indicates a shift to a phase of "industrialization": more capital-intensive projects, longer timelines, and heightened attention to contractual structures (PPA, indexing, guarantees).
In 2026, investors in renewables will more frequently evaluate:
- The quality of the regulatory framework and predictability of returns;
- The ability of projects to withstand fluctuations in rates and equipment costs;
- The availability of grid connectivity and storage infrastructure.
What is Important for Investors and Energy Market Participants: A Checklist for the Week
Before the start of the new week, investors, traders, and corporate buyers in oil, gas, and energy should keep the following signals in focus:
- OPEC+ rhetoric regarding Q2: Any hints about the pace of barrel returns are quickly reflected in oil and currency-commodity assets.
- Gas in Europe and LNG: Weather dynamics, storage levels, and the resilience of import flows dictate the volatility of TTF and electricity prices.
- Refinery Margins and Oil Products: During the maintenance season, cracking spreads for diesel and gasoline, as well as regional supply imbalances, become critical.
- Electricity and Renewables: Decisions on price support and investments in grid infrastructure influence the valuation of generating and network companies.
- Coal: Monitor demand from Asia and competition with gas, especially in light of changing LNG prices.
The baseline scenario for the end of February: the energy market remains "event-driven." Oil balances between expectations of increased supply and geopolitical premiums, gas and LNG fluctuate between seasonal weather and infrastructure resilience, while oil products and refineries navigate between maintenance and re-evaluating spreads. In such an environment, risk discipline strategies gain an advantage: diversification across segments (oil, gas, electricity, renewables), controlling exposure to product cracks, and careful management of delivery timelines.
