Global Energy News Overview on February 10, 2026: Oil and Gas Price Dynamics, OPEC+ Decisions, LNG Market, Oil Products and Refineries, Electricity, Renewable Energy, and Coal. Summary and Analysis for Investors and Market Participants.
The global energy sector at the beginning of 2026 demonstrates relative stability despite conflicting factors. Oil prices remain at moderate levels, while the market balances between a projected surplus in supply and ongoing geopolitical risks. Europe is experiencing volatility in the gas market amid low inventories and weather factors, while the energy transition accelerates: renewable energy sources (RES) are hitting records in implementation, and coal has reached peak demand. Below are the key news and trends in the oil and gas sector and energy markets today.
Global Oil Market: Surplus and Price Stability
The oil market entered 2026 showing signs of excess supply. According to the IEA, a significant oil surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day (approximately 4% of global demand) is expected in the first quarter. This is due to the combined oil production growing faster than demand: OPEC+ countries increased supplies in 2025, as well as exports from the USA, Brazil, Guyana, and other producers. Consequently, global stocks may start to rise, putting downward pressure on prices.
Nevertheless, oil prices remain relatively stable for now. Since the beginning of the year, Brent quotes have risen by approximately 5–6%, partially due to geopolitical concerns. Brent is trading in the range of $60–65 per barrel, while WTI is around $55–60 per barrel, close to the levels at the end of 2025. Several risk factors are preventing the market from declining: at the beginning of January, the US detained Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, calling on oil companies to invest in the country's production. In the short term, this caused disruptions in Venezuelan oil supplies. Additionally, Washington hinted at potential strikes against Iran’s oil infrastructure, while Kazakhstan's production has declined due to technical issues and drone attacks on fields. These events create a geopolitical premium in oil prices and sustain investor interest.
To maintain balance, OPEC+ is adhering to a cautious strategy. The cartel and its allies, including Russia, decided to pause after a series of production increases: it has been agreed to maintain quotas without growth at least until the end of March 2026. Major exporters seek to prevent market oversaturation: according to their estimates, fundamental market indicators are "healthy," commercial oil inventories remain relatively low, and the goal is to maintain price stability. If necessary, OPEC+ reserves the right to adjustment production operationally—as both upwards (returning previously cut volumes of 1.65 million barrels per day) and to new cuts, should market conditions warrant it. Meanwhile, demand for oil is continuing to grow moderately: the global demand forecast for 2026 has been revised up to ~0.9–1.0 million barrels per day increases, thanks to economic normalization and lower prices compared to last year. Overall, the oil market enters the year with a fragile balance: the expected surplus is mitigated by OPEC+ actions and the threat of supply disruptions, keeping oil in a relatively narrow price range.
Natural Gas Market: Low Inventories and High Volatility
The global gas market at the start of 2026 is experiencing significant fluctuations, particularly in Europe. After a calm autumn when prices remained within a narrow range (€28–30 per MWh at the TTF hub), volatility returned in January. In the early weeks of the new year, gas prices in the EU sharply rose—on January 16, quotes exceeded €37 per MWh. This was due to a combination of factors: forecasts of cold weather and the approach of severe frosts at the end of January increased demand, while the level of gas stocks was significantly below normal. By mid-January, European underground gas storage levels had fallen to ~50% of capacity (compared to ~62% a year earlier and a five-year average of 67% on the same date). This is the lowest filling level in recent years (after the crisis winter of 2021/22), and market participants realized that without active imports, Europe would face substantial depletion of reserves.
Additional influences on gas prices included disruptions in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from the US early in the year, caused by technical and weather factors, along with geopolitical risks—increased tensions surrounding Iran. Simultaneously, demand for LNG in Asia rose due to colder weather, intensifying competition for spot cargoes. Collectively, these factors prompted traders to close short positions, driving prices higher. However, by the end of January, the situation stabilized somewhat: after the passage of the initial cold spells, prices retreated to ~€35 per MWh. Analysts note that volatility has returned to the EU gas market, although panic peaks like those seen in 2022 are not currently observed.
- Low Inventories: As of the end of January, EU gas storages were filled to only about 45% (the lowest level for this time of year since 2022). If withdrawals continue at the current pace, by the end of winter, inventories could drop to 30% or lower. This means it will be necessary to inject about 60 billion cubic meters of gas over the summer to reach a filling level of 90% by November 1 (the new EU energy security target).
- LNG Imports: The main resource for replenishing stocks will be imported supplies of liquefied gas. Over the past year, Europe has increased its LNG purchases by ~30%, reaching a record ~175 billion cubic meters. In 2026, this figure is expected to continue to rise: the IEA forecasts a ~7% growth in global LNG production to new all-time highs. New export terminals in North America (USA, Canada, Mexico) are coming online, with plans to bring a total of up to 300 billion cubic meters of new capacity online by 2025–2030 (around +50% compared to current market volume). This will help to partially offset the loss of Russian volumes.
- Phasing out Russian Gas: The EU officially aims to completely halt imports of Russian pipeline gas and LNG by 2027. Already, Russia’s share in European imports has declined to ~13% (down from 40–45% before 2022). In 2025–2026, the embargo will tighten further, reducing gas supply in Europe by tens of billions of cubic meters. This deficit is planned to be covered by LNG imports from the USA, Qatar, Africa, and other sources. However, analysts warn that this dependence on transatlantic supplies presents risks: according to IEEFA research, 57% of LNG supplies to the EU in 2025 came from the USA, and this share could rise to 75–80% by 2030, which contradicts diversification goals.
- Price Anomalies: Interestingly, the futures price structure for gas in Europe is currently exhibiting an inverse situation—summer contracts for 2026 are trading at higher prices than winter 2026/27 contracts. This backwardation contradicts the usual logic (where winter gas should be more expensive than summer gas) and may prevent storage operators from justifying stockpiling economically. Possible explanations include that the market is expecting stable LNG supplies all year round or anticipating government intervention (subsidies, storage filling mandates). However, experts warn that if price signals do not normalize and reservoirs are not filled with sufficient volumes, Europe risks entering the next winter without the necessary buffer, which could lead to another price surge.
In general, the natural gas market remains resource-secured, but is highly sensitive to weather and policy. There will be substantial work required to replenish stocks over the summer, and a lot will depend on the dynamics of global LNG trade and coordination measures at the EU level. Meanwhile, the current softness in prices (compared to the crisis year 2022) reflects a degree of calm among traders—but it can prove deceptive if winter drags on or new supply disruptions emerge.
Oil Products and Refining (refineries)
The oil products segment is experiencing mixed trends at the start of the year. On one hand, global demand for oil products, especially jet fuel and diesel, remains high due to economic recovery and transportation revival. On the other hand, supply is increasing due to rising refinery outputs in Asia and the Middle East, although sanctions and incidents are impacting this. In the early months of the year, a traditional maintenance season starts globally for oil refineries: many are shut down for planned repairs. Consequently, in the first quarter, overall refining is declining, temporarily reducing demand for oil and contributing to an increase in crude oil surplus. The IEA notes that the forthcoming mass servicing of refineries exacerbates oil excess in the market—without additional production cutbacks, avoiding stock builds during this period will be challenging.
At the same time, refining margins are overall remaining decent. By the end of 2025, global refining capacities operated at high utilization rates: for instance, oil processing in China set a record, reaching ~14.8 million barrels per day (average for 2025, +600 thousand barrels compared to 2024). This is due to the commissioning of new plants and China’s aim to boost its oil product exports. South Korea also reached a record for diesel exports in 2025—as Asian producers fill the niche created following the redistribution of flows from Russia. Strong demand for diesel (especially in transportation and industrial sectors) supports high prices of distillates and profits of refineries focusing on diesel output. Conversely, the gasoline market is demonstrating some weakness: excess capacities and slowing growth in road traffic resulted in gasoline margins in Asia and Europe falling to year-long lows. However, the upcoming summer driving season may change the situation.
Russian Oil Products and Sanctions: It is also worth noting the changing flows of Russian oil products onto the global market under sanction pressure. At the end of 2025, the USA imposed additional sanctions on the largest Russian oil companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil, complicating the trade of their refined products. According to industry sources, in early 2026, Russian fuel oil exports to Asia slowed: increased scrutiny on sanction compliance and fear of secondary measures are causing many buyers to avoid direct deals. The volume of fuel oil supplies to Asian countries in January fell for the third consecutive month and was about half of last year's figures (around 1.2 million tons versus 2.5 million tons in January 2025). Some cargoes are being redirected to warehouses and floating storage in anticipation of resale, while some tankers are taking circuitous routes around Africa to obscure final destinations. Traders note that the scheme for selling Russian products has become more complicated—often multistage supply chains are used with transshipments in neutral waters to disguise the origin of the fuel.
In addition to sanctions, military methods have also reduced exports from Russia: Ukrainian drone strikes on border oil refineries in Russia in the autumn of 2025 damaged several installations, reducing output. As a result, the supply of Russian fuel oils and other heavy oil products in the Asian market decreased somewhat in early 2026, providing some support to regional prices for these fuel types. Nonetheless, key sales destinations for Moscow remain Southeast Asia, China, and the Middle East—these regions are still receiving the main volumes while Western sanctions prevent a return to traditional markets.
Overall, the global oil products market is gradually recalibrating towards new geography. The majority of growth in refining capacities in the coming years is expected to occur in the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East, and Africa—where up to 80–90% of new refineries are coming online. This intensifies competition for fuel markets. Conversely, in Europe, some plants have reduced operational metrics due to high energy prices and the cessation of supplies of cheap Russian feedstock. The EU completely banned imports of Russian oil products at the beginning of 2023, and over the past two years, European refineries have shifted focus to other oil grades, albeit at the cost of rising expenses. By the end of winter 2026, prices for major oil products are at relatively stable levels: diesel fuel is consistently high due to limited global reserves, while prices for gasoline and fuel oil are demonstrating moderate dynamics. The upcoming exit of refineries from maintenance in spring may increase product supplies, but much will depend on the season's demand and global economy.
Coal: Record Demand and Signs of Decline
Despite the active growth of renewable energy, coal still retains a significant role in the global energy landscape. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal demand reached a historical maximum in 2025—around 8.85 billion tons per year (an equivalent of ~+0.5% from 2024). Thus, coal consumption set a record for the second consecutive year, largely due to post-pandemic economic recovery and increased electricity demand. However, experts note that this peak may become a "plateau": it is expected that by the end of the decade, global coal consumption will begin to decline slowly but steadily.
Trends are heterogeneous across regions. In China, the largest coal consumer (accounting for over half of global volume), coal use in 2025 was close to consistently high levels, and only a slight decline is expected by 2030 due to significant investments in RES and nuclear power. India, the second-largest market, unexpectedly reduced coal combustion in 2025—only the third time in 50 years. This was attributed to extremely strong monsoons: abundant rainfall filled reservoirs, and record hydropower production reduced the need for coal generation, alongside slowing industrial growth impacting demand. Meanwhile, the USA saw an uptick in coal consumption in 2025—this increase is attributed to high natural gas prices, making coal generation economically favorable in certain regions. Political factors also played a role: President Donald Trump, who took office in early 2025, signed a directive to support coal-fired power plants, preventing their closure and stimulating production. This measure temporarily revitalized the US coal industry, even though the long-term competitiveness of coal is decreasing there.
In Europe, coal use continued to decline in 2025, as EU countries strive to meet climate goals, replacing coal with gas and RES. The share of coal in electricity generation in the EU dropped below 15%, with this trend accelerating after 2022 when Europe abruptly reduced imports of Russian coal (from 50% to 0% of consumption). Overall, the IEA believes that global coal consumption will plateau in the coming years and then decline: renewable sources, natural gas, and nuclear energy are gradually displacing coal from the energy sector, especially in electricity generation. By 2025, RES generation for the first time equaled the amount generated from coal. However, the transition will be gradual. Experts warn that if electricity demand grows faster than anticipated or delays occur in bringing clean capacities online, coal demand might temporarily exceed forecasts. Notably, much depends on China, which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined: any fluctuations in the Chinese economy are instantly reflected in the coal market.
So far, the coal mining industry is in decent health: coal prices remain at sufficiently high levels due to demand in Asia. Yet mining companies and energy companies are already preparing for the inevitable transformation. Investments are increasingly directed not towards new mines, but towards technologies for carbon capture and social programs for coal-dependent regions. In the long term, phasing out coal is seen as a key step in achieving climate goals related to limiting global warming.
Electricity and Renewable Sources: Green Leap
The electricity sector is entering a new era of accelerated development of renewable technologies. According to the IEA report "Electricity 2026," we will see radical shifts in the generation structure in this decade. In 2025, global electricity generation based on RES (predominantly solar and wind power plants) equaled that from coal stations, and starting in 2026, clean sources begin to surpass coal. By 2030, the total share of renewable energy and nuclear energy in global electricity generation is expected to reach 50%. The rapid growth is primarily driven by solar energy: new photovoltaic plants are added each year, contributing over 600 TWh of generation annually. Considering wind as well, the total increase in renewable generation by 2030 will comprise around 1000 TWh annually (+8% per year relative to current volumes).
Simultaneously, electricity demand worldwide is sharply increasing—on average by 3–4% per year from 2024 to 2030, which is 2.5 times faster than the overall energy consumption growth. The reasons include the industrialization of developing countries, the mass adoption of electric transport (electric vehicles, electric public transport), and digitalization (data centers, increased use of air conditioning and electronics). Thus, even with the vigorous development of RES, completely displacing fossil generation overnight will not be feasible: gas power production is also being ramped up for balancing energy systems. Natural gas is viewed as a "transitional fuel," and gas generation will grow until 2030, albeit more slowly than renewables.
Infrastructure and Reliability: Such rapid dynamics create challenges for infrastructure. Existing power grids and energy storage systems require significant investments to integrate intermittent sources such as solar and wind. The IEA emphasizes that to meet increasing demand and ensure reliability, annual investments in electrical grids must increase by 50% by 2030 (compared to the previous decade's levels). A breakthrough in battery technology and load management is also necessary to smooth out peaks and fluctuations in RES generation.
Europe vs USA: Climate Policy and Wind: The global energy transition is uneven: political divergences are evident among different countries. In the European Union, the green agenda remains a priority—even in light of the energy crisis in 2022, the EU is accelerating RES adoption. By the end of 2025, generation from wind and solar plants in the European Union surpassed that from fossil fuels for the first time. European governments aim to further increase capacities: nine countries (including Germany, France, the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands, etc.) have agreed on large joint projects in the North Sea to achieve 300 GW of installed offshore wind capacity by 2050. By 2030, at least 100 GW of offshore wind energy is planned through transboundary projects. This expansion of RES is intended to provide stable, secure, and affordable energy supply, create jobs, and reduce dependence on fuel imports.
There have been difficulties though: rising interest rates and increasing material costs in 2024–2025 led to some tenders for wind farm construction (for example, in Germany and the UK) not attracting bidders—investors demanded better project economics. European leaders recognize the issue and are ready to enhance support: additional guarantees, targeted subsidies, and contract-for-difference mechanisms are being discussed to make wind farm construction more appealing for businesses.
In contrast to the EU, in the USA, there has been a partial rollback of government support for clean energy. The new administration, which came to power in 2025, is skeptical of several green initiatives. President Trump publicly criticized the European course on RES, calling wind turbines "unprofitable" and claiming (without evidence) that "the more wind turbines, the more money the country loses." Accordingly, US authorities have pivoted towards supporting traditional sources: in addition to coal support, offshore wind energy projects came under scrutiny. In December 2025, the US Department of the Interior unexpectedly halted the implementation of several large offshore wind projects, citing new data on potential threats to national security (for example, military radar disruptions). This decision also impacted the nearly completed Vineyard Wind project off the coast of Massachusetts. Major energy companies—investors in wind farms (Avangrid/Iberdrola, Orsted, etc.)—have challenged the moratorium in court. In January 2026, they achieved initial victories: a federal judge blocked the administration's order, allowing construction to resume on Vineyard Wind (which is already 95% complete). Legal battles continue, and the industry hopes that projects do not suffer substantial delays. However, the uncertainty created by such steps could dampen investor enthusiasm for US RES, while Europe demonstrates a commitment to move forward.
Other RES Directions: Renewable energy is not limited to wind and solar. In many countries, the construction of energy storage infrastructure (industrial batteries), hydropower development, and geothermal plants is intensifying. Interest in nuclear power is also experiencing a revival as a carbon-free energy source. For instance, private investors are supporting new small modular reactor projects. In Italy, the startup Newcleo attracted €75 million in investments in February for the development of innovative compact reactors utilizing recycled nuclear fuel. The company has raised €645 million since 2021 and plans rapid development: construction of a pilot reactor and entry into the US market—a key market for advanced nuclear technologies. Such initiatives demonstrate that the nuclear sector could play a vital role in decarbonization alongside RES.
As a result of efforts toward energy transition, noticeable effects on electricity prices are already evident in several regions. For instance, in Europe, at the end of 2025, wholesale electricity prices dropped compared to the autumn—due to seasonal demand reductions and high output from RES (windy and warm weather). Nevertheless, reliability issues persist: Ukraine’s energy infrastructure remains in poor condition due to ongoing shelling, leading to supply disruptions in winter. Globally, half of the new generation capacities being commissioned now originate from solar and wind stations. This instills confidence that although fossil fuels will remain in the energy mix for a while, the energy transition is gaining irreversible momentum.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Hopes and Reality
Political factors continue to largely shape the situation in energy markets. The sanction confrontation between the West and major energy resource suppliers—Russia, Iran, Venezuela—remains intact, although some market participants express hope for its easing. Some positive signals are emerging: the capture and removal of Nicolas Maduro opens the path to potential normalization of Venezuela's oil sector. Investors anticipate that with the change of the political regime in Caracas, the US will gradually ease sanctions and allow the return of significant volumes of Venezuelan oil to the market (the country’s resources are among the largest in the world). This could potentially increase the supply of heavy oil and help stabilize prices for raw materials and oil products. Meanwhile, in the short term, Maduro’s resignation has rather led to disruptions: Venezuela's export in January decreased by about 0.5 million barrels per day, which is notable for Asian refineries consuming its oil.
Tensions surrounding Iran remain high. Rumors of possible strikes by the US or Israel against Iranian nuclear facilities are stirring the market: Iran is a key oil producer in OPEC, and any military actions could disrupt export terminals or deter shipping companies. Despite avoiding direct conflict for now, rhetoric has intensified, and traders are pricing in a certain premium for potential force majeure events in the Strait of Hormuz.
Amid these factors, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has entered its fourth year and continues to influence the energy landscape. Europe has effectively ceased to receive energy resources from Russia, restructuring its logistics around alternatives, while Russia has redirected its oil and gas exports to Asia. However, the Russian industry is facing new challenges: as noted, the expansion of US sanctions at the end of 2025 complicated operations even with friendly buyers in Asia. Many prefer to wait for sanctions to soften or demand substantial discounts due to risks. Additionally, attacks on infrastructure have increased—besides strikes on refineries, there are reports of attacks on oil depots and pipelines. As a result, according to industry monitoring, oil production in Russia began to decline slightly in December and January. While Russia successfully restored production volumes in 2025 (after the downturn in 2022–23), signs of a decline emerged by early 2026 for the second consecutive month. Analysts link this to the exhaustion of easy rerouting options and difficulties in servicing fields under sanctions. Russian oil exports via sea remain consistently high in volume but require longer routes and a larger fleet of "shadow" tankers that are under the risk of increased scrutiny.
Thus, geopolitical uncertainty remains a significant factor. Nevertheless, cautious optimism is present in the market: some experts believe that the sharpest phases of the energy standoff may be behind us. Importing countries have adapted to new conditions, while exporters are seeking ways to circumvent restrictions. However, diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation have yet to yield tangible results. Investors continue to closely monitor news from Washington, Brussels, Moscow, and Beijing. Any signals regarding potential negotiations or easing of sanctions could significantly influence market sentiment. Until then, politics will continue to introduce an element of volatility: whether it be new sanction packages, unexpected agreements, or outbreaks of conflicts—energy markets react to these events with price fluctuations and shifts in raw material flows.
In conclusion, it can be said that hopes for easing the sanction confrontation in 2026 remain just that—hopes, as the main restrictions persist, and market participants learn to operate amid geopolitical fragmentation. Meanwhile, the moderate stability of oil and gas prices, achieved through OPEC+ efforts and market adaptation, provides a basis for expecting that the sector can navigate this current period without significant upheavals, barring new major crises.
Industry Investments and Corporate News
In the energy sector, investors are focused on both the high profitability of traditional oil and gas companies and large investments in energy transition projects. Below are some key events in the corporate sector and investments:
- Record profits for oil and gas companies: Major oil companies ended 2025 with strong financial results. For instance, ExxonMobil’s net profit for 2025 amounted to $28.8 billion. Saudi Arabia's Saudi Aramco consistently earns about $25–30 billion quarterly (in just Q3 2025 alone, $28 billion). These colossal revenues have allowed companies to continue large share buyback programs and dividend payments, as well as invest in new exploration projects. Oil and gas giants are investing in developing fields—from shale plays in the Permian Basin in the USA to deepwater projects off the coast of Brazil and gas in Eastern Africa. Simultaneously, many are declaring investments in low-carbon directions (renewable energy, hydrogen, CO2 capture), though the share of such investments remains small compared to their core business.
- Deals and projects in renewable energy: There is a continuous influx of capital into "green" projects globally. Governments are entering into large agreements with investors: for instance, Egypt signed contract packages worth $1.8 billion in January to develop RES. Plans include constructing a 1.7 GW solar power plant with a 4 GWh storage system in Upper Egypt (a project by Scatec), and establishing a factory by Chinese firm Sungrow for industrial battery production in the Suez Economic Zone. Egypt aims to increase the share of renewable generation to 42% by 2030, and international partners are helping advance toward this ambitious target. Such projects highlight a high level of activity in emerging markets.
- New technologies and startups: Innovative energy companies are also attracting financing. Apart from the mentioned Italian nuclear startup Newcleo, projects in hydrogen and synthetic fuels are emerging. For example, the Chilean-American company HIF Global is advancing plans for a $4 billion plant to produce green hydrogen and e-fuel (methanol) in Brazil. Recently, management reported that it has optimized the project and significantly reduced capital costs—construction is divided into phases, with each phase costing less than $1 billion. The port of Açu (Brazil) project aims to launch its first line, producing ~220 thousand tons of "electromethanol" annually from hydrogen and captured CO2, by mid-2027. Such initiatives are attracting interest from automakers and airlines keen on new fuels.
- Mergers and acquisitions: In the resource sector, consolidation processes are underway. In 2025, two large deals in the oil sector reshaped the landscape: American ExxonMobil and Chevron announced acquisitions of shale companies Pioneer Natural Resources and Hess Corp, respectively, strengthening their positions in the USA. At the beginning of 2026, negotiations continued in related sectors—for instance, a mega-merger of mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore (worth ~$200+ billion) was discussed with the intent to combine coal assets, but the parties ultimately abandoned merger plans. Major players are seeking to increase scale and synergy, but antitrust risks and integration complexity may hinder such mega-deals.
- Investment Climate: Overall, investments in the energy sector remain high. According to BloombergNEF estimates, global investments in energy transition (RES, electricity grids, storage, electric vehicles, etc.) in 2025 for the first time equaled investments in fossil energy. Banks and funds are refocusing strategies towards sustainable financing, although oil and gas will continue to receive a substantial share of capital for the foreseeable future. For investors, the key question is now finding a balance between the traditional profitability of oil and gas and promising "green" directions. Many are adopting a dual strategy: locking in profits from high oil/gas prices while simultaneously investing in future renewable markets to not miss out on the next wave of growth.
Corporate news from the sector also includes the publication of financial reports from the previous year, personnel appointments, and technological breakthroughs. Riding on profit waves, some companies announce dividend increases and share buybacks, pleasing shareholders. At the same time, under societal pressure, oil and gas companies are setting new emission reduction targets and investing in climate initiatives, trying to improve their image and positioning in a changing world. Thus, the energy business globally seeks to demonstrate resilience and flexibility: achieving record profits today while laying the groundwork for success in a low-carbon economy tomorrow.
Expectations and Forecasts
As we approach the end of winter 2026, experts in the oil and gas sector are delivering cautiously optimistic forecasts. The primary scenario for the upcoming months is the maintenance of relative stability in hydrocarbon prices. Authorities and market participants have learned from the upheavals of the first half of the 2020s, creating response mechanisms: from strategic reserves and OPEC+ agreements to energy efficiency programs. Price forecasts from relevant agencies indicate potential slight decreases in oil quotes in the second half of 2026, if the surplus supply materializes as anticipated (the EIA expects a gradual decline in Brent to $55 per barrel by the end of the year). However, any serious disruptions—such as an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East or hurricanes damaging LNG facilities—could temporarily spike prices.
In the gas sector, much will depend on the developments of the summer: a mild summer and high LNG output will ease the task of replenishing storages, which may keep European gas prices in the average range of €25–30 per MWh. However, competitive strife with Asia for new LNG volumes, as well as uncertainty about weather patterns (for instance, the risk of drought affecting hydropower generation or early cold snaps) add to uncertainties. Nevertheless, if stocks reach target levels by autumn, Europe will enter the next winter with more confidence than in previous years.
The development of renewable energy will continue actively. It is likely that 2026 will be another record year for the commissioning of solar and wind capacities, particularly in China, the USA (despite political hurdles—thanks to individual state initiatives), and the EU. The world may approach the point where every second new power plant is RES. This will gradually alter market structures: demand for natural gas in electricity generation may grow more slowly, while coal demand could decline more rapidly than forecasts if RES installations outpace plans. The market's close attention will also be on the development of energy storage and hydrogen technologies—a breakthrough in these areas could accelerate the energy transition.
On the political front, market participants will closely monitor potential negotiations and elections. In 2026, presidential elections are expected in several supplier countries, which may affect their energy policies. Any moves towards peaceful agreements or easing some sanctions might drastically reshape trade flows—such as the re-entry of Iranian oil into the market or an increase in Venezuela’s exports. Conversely, tighter sanctions or new conflicts (for instance, around Taiwan or other regions) could introduce new supply risks for critical raw materials.
Overall, however, investors and analysts anticipate that 2026 will be marked by adaptation and resilience. Energy markets are no longer as chaotic as they were during the peak of upheavals and are demonstrating self-regulatory capabilities. With sound policies—from both governments and companies—the energy sector will continue to provide the global economy with the necessary fuel and energy while gradually transforming from within under the influence of new technologies and contemporary requirements.
