Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of November 23, 2025: Oil and Gas Market Dynamics, Energy Sector Situation, Renewables, Coal, Geopolitics, Supply and Demand, Domestic Fuel Market.
Current events in the oil, gas, and energy sectors as of November 23, 2025, draw the attention of investors and market participants due to their contradictory nature. Unexpected diplomatic initiatives instill cautious optimism regarding the easing of geopolitical tensions, which is reflected in the decline of the "risk premium" in the oil market.
Global oil prices continue to face pressure from oversupply and weakened demand – Brent quotes have fallen to around $62 per barrel (WTI – about $58), reflecting a fragile balance of factors. The European gas market appears relatively balanced: gas reserves in the EU's underground storage facilities remain high (over 80% of capacity), providing a buffer before the winter period and keeping prices at relatively low levels.
At the same time, the global energy transition is gaining momentum – many countries are setting new records for electricity generation from renewable sources, although traditional resources are still required for the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, following a recent sharp increase in fuel prices, government measures are beginning to yield results, and the situation in the domestic market is stabilizing. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials segments as of this date.
Oil Market: Geopolitical Easing and Oversupply Drive Prices Down
Global oil prices remain at relatively low levels under the influence of fundamental factors. Brent is trading around $62–63 per barrel, WTI – about $58, which is approximately 15% lower than a year ago. Several key factors are currently impacting price dynamics:
- OPEC+ Production Increase: The oil alliance continues to gradually increase supply. In December 2025, the overall production quota for the participants in the deal will rise by approximately 137,000 barrels per day. Previously, from the summer, monthly increases were 0.5–0.6 million barrels per day, leading to a return of global oil and product stockpiles to levels close to pre-pandemic. Although further quota increases for 2026 have been paused due to concerns about oversupply, the current increase in supply is already exerting pressure on prices.
- Slower Demand: The growth rate of global oil consumption has significantly slowed. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates the demand increase in 2025 will be less than 0.8 million barrels per day (compared to 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC's forecast is now more cautious, at around +1.2–1.3 million barrels per day. Weakened global economic conditions and the impact of high prices from previous years are limiting consumption, with an additional factor being the slowing industrial growth in China, which restrains the appetite of the world's second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitical Signals: Reports of a possible peace plan for Ukraine from the US have reduced some geopolitical uncertainty, removing the risk premium in prices. However, the lack of real agreements and ongoing sanctions pressure prevent the market from calming completely. Traders are reacting reflexively to news: as long as peaceful initiatives are not realized, the impact remains short-term.
- Shale Production Constraints: In the US, low prices have begun to dampen the activity of shale producers. The number of rigs in American oil basins is declining as quotes have slipped to ~$60. This signals greater caution among companies and threatens to slow the increase in supply from the US if such prices persist.
The cumulative impact of these factors creates a situation close to surplus: global supply is now slightly exceeding demand. Oil prices are confidently holding below last year's levels. A number of analysts believe that if current trends continue, the average price of Brent might drop to around $50 per barrel in 2026. For now, however, the market remains in a relatively narrow range, not receiving stimuli for a sharp rise or collapse.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter with Stocks, Prices Remain Moderate
In the gas market, the focus is on Europe's preparation for the heating season. EU countries have been actively filling their underground gas storage (UGS) facilities throughout the summer and autumn. By mid-November, European storage facilities were filled to about 82% of their total capacity – slightly short of the target guideline (90% by November 1), but still at a very comfortable level. This will provide a significant gas reserve in case of a cold winter. Exchange prices for gas are being held at low levels: December futures on the TTF hub are trading at around €25–28/MWh (approximately $320–360 per thousand cubic meters), marking a low not seen in over a year. Such moderate prices indicate a balanced supply and demand situation in the European market.
The high import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) plays an important role. With active LNG supplies (including from the US and Qatar), Europeans have managed to compensate for the decline in pipeline supplies from Russia and fill UGS ahead of schedule. During the autumn months, monthly LNG imports into the EU consistently exceeded 10 billion cubic meters. An additional factor is the relatively mild weather at the start of winter, which is restraining consumption and allowing for slower extraction of gas from storage than usual. A potential risk ahead entails increased competition for LNG from Asia if severe frosts hit APT countries and gas demand rises. Nevertheless, for now, the balance in the European gas market appears stable, and prices are relatively low. This situation is beneficial for Europe's industry and energy sector at the beginning of the winter season.
International Politics: Peace Initiatives on Ukraine and New US Sanctions
In the second half of November, promising signals emerged in the geopolitical arena. Reports indicate that the American side has prepared a conflict resolution plan for Ukraine, which, among other things, proposes lifting some sanctions imposed against Russia. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has reportedly received urgent signals from Washington regarding the need to promptly accept the proposed agreement developed with Moscow's participation. The prospect of peace negotiations instills cautious optimism in the markets: de-escalation of the conflict could eventually lift restrictions on Russian energy exports and improve the business climate.
At the same time, no real changes in the sanctions regime have occurred so far – moreover, the West is intensifying pressure. On November 21, new US sanctions targeting the Russian oil and gas sector came into effect. The largest companies "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL" have been subjected to restrictions: global counterparts are required to completely cease cooperation with them by this date. Earlier, the US administration indicated its readiness to impose further measures if progress on the political track is not observed – up to imposing strict tariffs on countries continuing to actively purchase Russian oil.
Thus, the lack of a concrete breakthrough on the diplomatic front indicates the preservation of sanctions pressure in full measure. Nevertheless, the mere fact of ongoing dialogue provides a chance that the harshest measures from the West may be postponed for the time being. In the coming weeks, the market's attention will be focused on the development of contacts between global leaders: positive shifts could improve investor sentiment and soften the sanctions rhetoric, while a failure in negotiations risks leading to a new escalation of restrictions. The outcomes of current peace initiatives will have a long-term impact on energy cooperation and the rules of the game in the oil and gas market.
Asia: India Reduces Russian Oil Imports, China Increases Purchases
- India: Faced with the pressure of Western sanctions policy, New Delhi is forced to adjust its energy strategy. Earlier, Indian authorities clearly indicated that a sharp reduction in imports of Russian oil and gas was unacceptable due to the critical role these supplies play in ensuring energy security. However, under intensified US pressure, Indian refiners have begun to reduce purchases. The largest private oil company, Reliance Industries, completely ceased imports of Russian oil to its complex in Jamnagar as of November 20. To retain the Indian market, Russian suppliers have had to offer additional discounts: December shipments of Urals oil are being sold for about $5–6 below Brent prices (while in the summer the discount was around $2). As a result, India continues to buy significant volumes of Russian oil at favorable terms, although total imports are expected to decline in the coming months. At the same time, the country’s leadership is taking steps to reduce reliance on imports in the long term. Back in August, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a national program for the exploration of deep-water oil and gas fields. Under this initiative, the state-owned company ONGC has begun drilling ultra-deep wells (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea; early results are assessed as promising. This "deepwater mission" aims to unlock new hydrocarbon reserves and bring India closer to its goal of gradually achieving energy independence.
- China: The largest Asian economy is also forced to adapt its energy import structure while simultaneously increasing domestic production. Chinese importers remain the leading buyers of Russian oil and gas – Beijing has not joined Western sanctions and has seized the opportunity to import raw materials at advantageous prices. However, recent sanctions from the US and EU have necessitated adjustments: state traders in China temporarily suspended new purchases of Russian oil due to fears of secondary sanctions. Independent refiners partially filled the resulting gap. The newest oil refinery, Yulong, in Shandong province, significantly increased purchases and in November 2025 reached a record import volume – about 15 large tanker shipments (up to 400,000 barrels per day) of predominantly Russian oil (ESPO, Urals, Sokol). Yulong took advantage of the fact that several suppliers canceled shipments of Middle Eastern raw materials after sanctions and repurchased the released volumes. Simultaneously, China is increasing its own oil and gas production: from January to July 2025, national companies extracted 126.6 million tons of oil (+1.3% year-on-year) and 152.5 billion cubic meters of gas (+6%). Growth in domestic production helps partially meet the increased demand but does not eliminate the need for imports. Analysts estimate that in the coming years, China will still depend on external oil supplies for at least 70% and gas supplies for about 40%. Thus, India and China – the two largest Asian consumers – continue to play a key role in global raw materials markets, balancing import security strategies with the development of their resource base.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records While Traditional Energy Remains Relevant
The global shift towards clean energy is rapidly gaining momentum. Many countries are setting new records for electricity generation from renewable sources (RES). In the European Union, total generation from solar and wind power plants for the year 2024 exceeded the electricity produced by coal and gas-fired power plants for the first time. This trend has continued into 2025: the addition of new capacities has allowed for further growth in the share of "green" electricity in the EU, while the share of coal in the energy balance has begun to decline following a temporary increase during the energy crisis of 2022-2023. In the US, renewable energy has also reached historic levels – by early 2025, over 30% of total generation was accounted for by RES, and the combined output from wind and solar surpassed coal-fired generation. China, the world leader in installed RES capacity, annually brings dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines online, consistently setting its own generation records.
Overall, companies and investors around the globe are directing vast sums into the development of clean energy. According to the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 will exceed $3 trillion, with more than half of this funding allocated to RES projects, electrical grid modernization, and energy storage systems. At the same time, energy systems continue to rely on traditional generation to ensure stability in energy supply. The growing share of solar and wind creates new challenges for network balancing during hours when renewable sources are not producing (at night or during calm weather). To cover peak demand and reserve capacity, gas and even coal-fired power plants are still employed. For instance, in certain regions of Europe last winter, it was necessary to temporarily increase production at coal-fired power plants during windless weather – despite environmental costs. The governments of many countries are actively investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage plants) and "smart" grids capable of flexibly distributing loads. These measures aim to enhance the reliability of energy supply as the share of RES increases. Experts predict that by 2026-2027, renewable sources could emerge as the leading electricity generation method globally, finally surpassing coal. However, in the next few years, there remains a need to maintain conventional power plants as a safety net against outages. Thus, the energy transition reaches new heights but requires a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources.
Coal: High Demand Keeps the Market Stable
Despite the rapid development of RES, the global coal market still maintains significant volumes and remains a crucial part of the global energy balance. Demand for coal fuel remains consistently high, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and electricity needs support the intensive consumption of this resource. China – the world's largest consumer and producer of coal – has approached record levels of electricity generation from coal this fall. In October 2025, output at Chinese thermal power plants (mostly coal-fired) increased by 7% year-on-year, reaching a monthly record high, reflecting increased energy consumption (total electricity production in China in October hit a 30-year record). Simultaneously, coal production in China fell by ~2% due to heightened safety measures in mines, which led to a rise in domestic prices. By mid-November, prices for thermal coal in China reached their highest levels in the past year (around 835 yuan/ton at the key port hub of Qinhuangdao), stimulating an increase in imports. Coal import volumes into China remain high – it is expected that the country will import around 28–29 million tons by sea in November, compared to a minimum of ~20 million tons in June of this year. The increased Chinese demand supports global coal prices: prices for Indonesian and Australian thermal coal have risen to multi-month highs (30–40% above summer lows).
Other major importing countries, such as India, are also actively utilizing coal for electricity generation – over 70% of generation in India is still sourced from coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption is increasing alongside economic growth. Many developing countries in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) continue to build new coal-fired power plants to meet the growing demand for electricity from households and industries. Leading coal-exporting countries (Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa) are boosting production and shipments to take advantage of favorable market conditions. Overall, after price spikes in 2022, the international coal market has returned to a more stable state. Although many countries have announced plans to reduce coal use for climate goals, in the short term, this type of fuel remains indispensable for ensuring reliable energy supply. Analysts note that in the coming 5-10 years, coal generation, especially in Asia, will retain a significant role, even amidst global decarbonization efforts. Thus, a relative equilibrium is currently witnessed in the coal sector: demand remains consistently high, prices are moderate, and the industry continues to be one of the fundamental pillars of global energy supply.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Stabilization Thanks to Government Measures
In Russia's domestic fuel sector, immediate steps are being taken to normalize the price situation. As recently as the end of summer, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in the country reached record levels, causing local fuel shortages at a number of filling stations. The government was compelled to enhance market regulation: from September onwards, restrictions on the export of oil products were introduced, alongside refineries increasing production after completing scheduled maintenance. By mid-October, thanks to these measures, exchange quotes for fuel turned down from peak levels.
The downward trend persisted into November. According to data from the St. Petersburg International Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange, for the week ending November 21, the price of AI-92 gasoline decreased by 5.3%, and AI-95 by 2.6%. Just during the trading session on Friday, November 21, the ton of AI-92 fell to 60,286 rubles, and AI-95 to 71,055 rubles. The wholesale price of summer diesel fuel dropped by 3.3% over the week. As noted by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the stabilization of the wholesale market will soon be reflected in retail prices – consumer prices for gasoline have begun to decline for the second consecutive week (on average down by 13–15 kopecks per liter). On November 20, the State Duma adopted a law aimed at ensuring priority fuel supply to the domestic market. In summary, the measures undertaken have already shown initial results: the growth of prices has shifted to a decline, and the situation is normalizing following the autumn fuel crisis. Authorities hope to maintain control over prices and prevent new spikes in fuel costs in the upcoming months.
