Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of November 13, 2025: Deals, Geopolitics, Exports, Oil and Gas Production, Impact of Sanctions, and Global Market Balance. Analysis for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of November 13, 2025, are drawing investor and market participant attention due to their ambiguity. There is still no breakthrough in relations between Russia and the West; instead, the United States has imposed new sanctions against major Russian oil companies, indicating an escalation of the sanctions confrontation. The global oil market, which has previously been under pressure due to oversupply and slowing demand, remains in a fragile balance: Brent prices hover around the mid-$60 per barrel (approximately $64-$66), reflecting a balance of opposing factors. The European gas market is entering winter with record supplies: underground gas storage (UGS) in the EU is filled to more than 95%, providing a reliable reserve and keeping prices at relatively moderate levels. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is reaching new heights, with many countries setting records for generation from renewable sources, although traditional resources remain necessary for the stability of energy systems. In Russia, following a spike in fuel prices, authorities have extended the ban on gasoline exports and limited diesel exports until the end of the year in an effort to stabilize the domestic market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of today.
Oil Market: The Threat of Oversupply and Slowed Demand
Global oil prices continue to demonstrate relative stability at low levels. The North Sea benchmark Brent is trading around $65 per barrel, while U.S. WTI hovers near $60. Current prices are about 10% lower than a year ago, reflecting a gradual normalization of the market after the extreme peaks during the energy crisis of 2022-2023. The balance is maintained by a combination of several factors:
- Increase in OPEC+ production. The oil alliance has consistently increased supply since the beginning of the year. By autumn 2025, the total production quota of key participants in the agreement has practically returned to pre-pandemic levels: monthly easing of restrictions from spring has resulted in an increase of several million barrels per day. This increase in supply has already led to a rise in global oil and oil product inventories, increasing downward pressure on prices.
- Slowed demand. The pace of global oil consumption growth has significantly slowed down. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts an increase in demand in 2025 of about +0.7 million barrels per day (compared to +2.5 million in 2023). OPEC estimates demand growth at about +1.3 million b/d. Economic slowdowns, particularly in China's industrial sector, and the effects of previously high prices have stimulated energy conservation and restrained consumer appetite.
- Geopolitics and sanctions. The protracted conflict surrounding Ukraine and the lack of progress in negotiations signify the maintenance, and in some areas the intensification, of sanctions pressure on the Russian oil and gas sector. At the end of October, the U.S. administration expanded sanctions for the first time in a long while, including major Russian oil companies on the list. These measures force trading flows to be restructured: for example, Indian refineries are already signaling a readiness to reduce purchases of Russian oil to avoid secondary sanctions. On one hand, such actions increase uncertainty and create a risk premium in oil prices. On the other hand, global supply continues to be redirected along alternative routes, and an immediate raw materials shortage has not occurred in the market. As a result, oil prices fluctuate in a narrow range, without gaining momentum for either a new rally or a collapse.
The combined impact of these factors creates a moderate surplus of supply over demand. The market is balancing on the edge of surplus, and exchange prices firmly remain significantly below last year's peaks. Many analysts warn that if current trends persist, the average annual price for Brent could fall to around $50 per barrel by 2026. For now, market participants are adopting a wait-and-see position, tracking both fundamental indicators (inventories, production levels) and political signals from OPEC+ and key powers.
Gas Market: Full European Storage Ensures Price Stability
The gas market remains focused on Europe, which has successfully completed the fuel injection season. EU countries have achieved storage capacities exceeding 95% – significantly above the 90% target level set at the beginning of winter, marking a record in recent years. Such a high reserve before the heating season strengthens the region's energy security. By mid-November, the volume of gas in underground storage in several Western European countries roughly matches the amount available last year during the peak of winter, allowing for an optimistic outlook for the upcoming cold months.
High reserves and stable liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies maintain a relatively calm pricing environment on the European gas market. Futures for gas at the Dutch TTF hub fluctuate around €31-33/MWh (approximately $380 per thousand cubic meters) – several times lower than the crisis peaks of 2022. Supply and demand in Europe are currently close to balance: moderate consumption and a warm start to autumn have allowed reserves to increase without a surge in prices. EU importers continue to actively purchase LNG worldwide – regasification terminals are operating at high loads, receiving tankers from the U.S., Qatar, Africa, Australia, and other regions. This compensates for the cessation of pipeline supplies from Russia: since January 2025, transit of Russian gas through Ukraine has been completely halted, and the Yamal-Europe pipeline has been closed due to sanctions, leaving the Turkish Stream via the Balkans as the only pipeline route for gas from Russia to the EU (around 50 million cubic meters per day, a mere fraction of previous volumes).
As a result of diversification of supplies, Europe enters winter nearly free from dependence on Russian gas. Risks remain of course: abnormally cold weather could increase fuel consumption, and competition with Asia for spot LNG parcels may intensify if the economies of China and other regional countries accelerate. However, as of now, the balance in the European gas market appears stable and prices are relatively low. This situation is favorable for the industry and energy sectors in Europe ahead of peak load periods, reducing the likelihood of a repeat of the price shocks seen in recent history.
International Politics: Western Energy Partnerships and New Sanctions
Western countries are taking coordinated steps to restructure global energy connections amid geopolitical tensions. At the beginning of November, major agreements were made at an energy forum in Athens aimed at reducing Russia’s influence on the European gas market. For instance, the American company ExxonMobil signed a contract for the exploration and production of natural gas in Greek waters in partnership with local firms. Simultaneously, Greece signed its first long-term deal for LNG imports from the U.S.: starting in 2030, the country will receive no less than 0.7 billion cubic meters of LNG annually, with prospects for increasing this to 2 billion cubic meters. These deals fit into the overall strategy of the European Union to replace Russian energy resources: in July, the EU and the U.S. concluded a trade agreement in which Europe committed to purchasing around $250 billion annually in American energy resources (oil, gas, nuclear fuel) over the next three years.
U.S. officials openly state their intention to eliminate "every last molecule" of Russian gas from the markets of Western Europe. The new energy partnership is already yielding results: the European market has quickly reoriented towards LNG, and countries like Greece are transforming from end consumers of Russian gas into hubs for distributing American fuel throughout Europe. At the same time, the EU is tightening its own restrictions: a plan for a complete ban on imports of Russian LNG by 2027 has been approved, and previous embargoes on oil and oil products from Russia have already been introduced. Thus, Europe’s energy map is rapidly changing – the share of the U.S., the Middle East, and other alternative suppliers is steadily increasing.
However, the tightening of sanctions has side effects for market participants. **India**, which has become the largest buyer of discounted Russian oil, is now forced to reevaluate its strategy. In late October, the U.S. added Russian oil companies "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" to its sanctions lists, complicating transactions with them. Indian refiners have indicated their readiness to drastically cut purchases of crude from these companies to avoid losing access to the U.S. financial system and facing secondary sanctions. According to traders, some Indian refineries have already halted long-term contracts with Rosneft. These steps could reduce total imports of Russian oil into India (which reached record levels of 1.5-1.7 million b/d in 2025) and shift Indian demand to Middle Eastern and African suppliers, albeit at higher prices. Thus, the Washington’s sanctions pressure effectively forces a redistribution of global oil flows: Russian companies have to increase discounts and primarily focus on China, Turkey, and several other countries that have not joined the sanctions.
India and China: Import Adjustments and Rising Domestic Production
The largest Asian economies continue to balance between importing energy resources and developing domestic production. **India**, facing sanctions pressure, is at a crossroads: maintain advantageous purchases of cheap Russian oil or avoid breaking trade relations with the West. Until recently, India had actively increased shipments of Russian oil, receiving significant discounts (averaging $5-10 off Brent price for Urals grade). This allowed Russian oil to comprise about 34% of India's raw material imports. However, new U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, along with the threat of high tariffs on Indian goods in the U.S. market, compel New Delhi to reduce dependency on Russian supplies. Major Indian oil companies signal their readiness to nearly completely abandon purchases from sanctioned Russian producers by early 2026. In the short term, India is replacing the lost volumes with imports from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE) and Africa, even though this leads to a slight increase in raw material costs. Simultaneously, the Indian government is accelerating the development of its oil fields: following the announcement in August of a national "deep-water mission" to search for oil and gas, the state corporation ONGC has already begun drilling ultra-deep wells in the Andaman Sea. Initial reports indicate promising results, which raises hopes for increased domestic production and reduced reliance on imports in the future.
**China**, on the other hand, remains the largest buyer of Russian hydrocarbons but is simultaneously focusing on ramping up its own energy base. Beijing has not joined Western sanctions, leveraging the situation to increase imports at lower prices. Although in the first three quarters of 2025, China cut its crude oil imports from Russia by approximately 8% compared to last year's record high (to around 74 million tons for 9 months), Russia still ranks first among oil suppliers to China. Concurrently, Chinese companies are actively sourcing raw materials from Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Brazil, and other countries to diversify sources. Total oil imports by China for January-September increased by roughly 2.5% year-on-year, surpassing 420 million tons (about 11.3 million barrels per day). Alongside imports, China is boosting domestic production: in the first three quarters of 2025, national producers extracted around 150 million tons of oil (+1-2% year-on-year) and about 170 billion cubic meters of natural gas (+5-6% year-on-year). The development of fields, especially offshore and hard-to-reach ones, remains a strategic priority to reduce dependence on external supplies. Nevertheless, the scale of China’s economy is such that in the foreseeable future, the country will retain its status as the largest importer of energy resources: experts estimate that even with increased production, China will need to cover at least 70% of its oil needs through imports and around 40% for gas. Thus, India and China – two key consumers in Asia – are adapting their energy strategies to the new global reality, combining the pursuit of advantageous import opportunities with efforts to develop domestic production.
Energy Transition: New Records in Renewables and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy continues to gain momentum in 2025. Many regions have achieved impressive milestones in renewable energy. **In Europe**, by the end of 2024, the total electricity generation from solar and wind power plants for the first time exceeded generation from coal and gas power plants, and this trend has persisted into 2025. The share of "green" electricity in the EU’s energy balance steadily rises, displacing coal after a brief return of coal in 2022-2023. **In the U.S.**, renewables now account for over 30% of electricity generation; total wind and solar generation at the beginning of 2025 surpassed coal generation for the first time. **China** maintains global leadership in installed renewable energy capacity: tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines are being added annually, breaking previous records. According to the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 will exceed $3 trillion, with more than half of this funding directed to developing "green" energy, upgrading power grids, and energy storage systems.
The rapid growth of solar and wind generation creates new challenges for energy infrastructure. Even achieving record indicators, renewables are still variable sources – their generation depends on the weather and time of day. To ensure reliable energy supply, countries must maintain sufficient capacities for traditional generation. During periods of low renewable generation – for example, during calm weather or at night – gas and coal plants are utilized to cover peak demand. In the last heating season, some European countries had to temporarily increase the load on coal power plants during windless weather, despite the environmental costs. In response to these challenges, governments and companies are actively investing in creating energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped-storage stations) and "smart" grids capable of flexibly redistributing loads. Experts predict that by 2026-2027, renewable sources could surpass coal in global generation volumes. However, in the near years, the need for reserves from traditional power plants will remain, playing a role in safeguarding against outages. Thus, the global energy transition is accompanied by new records and investments but requires a delicate balance between implementing "green" technologies and maintaining energy system stability.
Coal Sector: High Demand in Asia Amid Stable Prices
Despite the acceleration in renewable development, the global coal market remains a significant segment of the energy balance. Demand for coal in 2025 remains high, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. **China** – the largest consumer and producer of coal – continues to burn massive volumes of fuel. Annual coal production in China exceeds 4 billion tons, meeting the lion's share of domestic needs. However, during peak demand periods (for example, hot summer months for air conditioning or cold winter months for heating), even these colossal volumes are occasionally not sufficient, prompting China to ramp up imports from countries like Indonesia, Russia, and Australia to avoid shortages. **India** is also increasing coal consumption in tandem with economic growth and electrification: national coal production has hit records, exceeding 900 million tons per year, yet the rapidly growing energy demand also necessitates increases in imports. Other emerging Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh) are commissioning new coal power plants to meet the energy needs of their populations and industries.
Prices for thermal coal in 2025 have stabilized relatively after sharp spikes observed during the global energy crisis. On the key Asian market (Australian Newcastle coal), prices are holding in the range of $130-$150 per ton, significantly lower than the peaks of over $400 reached in 2022. This price correction is explained by a restoration of balance between supply and demand: increased production in exporting countries (Australia, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa) and a slight decrease in demand in Europe and North America (where the coal exit has accelerated) have compensated for rising consumption in Asia. As a result, the global coal market has entered a phase of relative stability. However, environmental regulations and investments in clean energy gradually limit the prospects for long-term demand growth for coal. It is expected that global coal consumption will plateau in the coming years and then begin to slowly decline as many countries implement decarbonization goals for their economies. For now, coal continues to play a significant role, providing base generation and industrial production, especially in developing economies.
The Russian Fuel Market: Extended Export Restrictions to Stabilize Prices
In the domestic market for petroleum products in Russia, a set of measures is being implemented in the second half of 2025 to normalize the pricing situation. In September and October, there was some decline in wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel following a surge in demand during the preceding summer. The Russian government, aiming to prevent shortages and a new price spike, has extended temporary limitations on fuel exports. In particular, the previously instituted ban on gasoline exports for all manufacturing companies and trading intermediaries was first extended to September and then renewed until the end of the current year. At the same time, from autumn, limitations on diesel fuel exports for independent traders, who do not have their own production, were introduced – this measure aims to close loopholes for the export of deficit fuel abroad. According to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, these steps should ensure priority supply to the domestic market.
As a result of the implemented package of measures, the situation at gas stations has noticeably stabilized. Exchange prices for gasoline and diesel receded from peak levels, and retail prices are rising at moderate rates – approximately 5-6% since the beginning of the year, which is close to overall inflation. Gas stations across the country have sufficient fuel volumes, coinciding with the completion of the harvest campaign and the onset of the winter season. The government has also increased the volumes of subsidized fuel sales in the domestic market and tightened control over the sale of petroleum products to prevent a repeat of the sharp price spikes seen in spring and summer. Additionally, long-term measures are under discussion – such as raising export duties and adjusting the damping mechanism – to create a more resilient system for supplying the domestic market.
As a result of these efforts, Russia's internal fuel market has entered the winter period in a relatively balanced state. Authorities have managed to quell price panic and create a fuel stock reserve. Market participants note that the further price dynamics will depend on the global market situation (the ruble exchange rate, oil prices) and the discipline in adhering to the introduced limitations. Nevertheless, at this point, the Russian fuel sector exhibits signs of stabilization, which is particularly important for the economy and the population during the high consumption season of energy resources.
