Global News from the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector on January 13, 2026: Venezuela, Geopolitics, Oil, Gas, Coal, Refined Products, Refineries, and Key Global Energy Events for Investors and Market Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of January 13, 2026, present an ambiguous picture for investors and market participants. A significant geopolitical shift has occurred in Venezuela: the US-backed new government is striving to restore oil production, instilling cautious optimism for growth in global supply. At the same time, global oil prices continue to face pressure from oversupply and weakening demand – Brent crude remains around $60 per barrel following a significant decline last year. The European gas market demonstrates resilience even amid a cold winter: underground gas storage (UGS) in the EU is over 80% full, and record LNG deliveries help keep prices at moderate levels. The global energy transition is gaining momentum – many countries are hitting new records for generation from renewable sources (RES), although to ensure the reliability of energy systems, governments are not relinquishing traditional resources. In Russia, authorities are extending fuel export restrictions and taking measures to stabilize the domestic refined products market after recent price spikes. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors on this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Weak Demand Continue to Pressure Prices
The global oil market at the beginning of 2026 maintains relative price weakness amid an oversupply situation. The benchmark Brent crude is trading around $60 per barrel, while US WTI is hovering around $55–57, marking minimal levels over the past four years. Oil prices fell roughly 20% in 2025, making it the weakest year since the pandemic of 2020. The primary reasons include recovery in production and increased exports from key players while demand growth remains sluggish.
After the peaks of the energy crisis in 2022, many producers ramped up deliveries: OPEC+ countries gradually lifted previously imposed production limits, and US production hit a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 (a slight decline is expected in 2026). New projects are contributing to the increase in global supply: oil production is rising in Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and other countries. Over the past weekend, OPEC+ kept production quotas unchanged, aiming to protect the market from sharp fluctuations; however, analysts still estimate an oil surplus of 0.5 to 3 million barrels per day in the coming months. Overall, supply currently outpaces demand, and until new factors emerge, the balance remains tilted towards surplus, keeping oil prices at moderate levels.
Gas Market: Europe Withstands the Cold Winter Thanks to Reserves and LNG
On the gas market, the primary focus is on Europe, experiencing the early months of winter without the previous upheavals. Despite an unusually cold December, European countries successfully maintained high stock levels: according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU underground storage was approximately 85% full at the beginning of January. This impressive stock level is a result of a mild winter start, record LNG imports from the US and Qatar, and measures aimed at energy conservation and reduced industrial consumption. Even the Arctic cold wave that struck Central Europe at the end of December only slightly increased gas withdrawals from storage, which was promptly compensated by increased LNG supplies. Prices for gas in the region are at moderate levels, significantly lower than the peaks of 2022, and analysts forecast an end to the heating season with a comfortable surplus (expected at least 50–60% full UGS by spring). This indicates heightened resilience of the European gas market owing to diversified supplies and infrastructural reforms.
On a global scale, the gas market situation also remains relatively stable. Demand in Asia is steadily rising, but without sharp spikes: China and India are increasing LNG imports under long-term contracts, insulating themselves from the volatility of spot prices. Concurrently, new gas export capacities are coming online – from LNG plants in North America to projects in the Middle East – increasing the available supply on the global market. This balance allows for the avoidance of gas shortages even amid local weather or geopolitical risks, keeping world gas prices within a relatively narrow range.
International Agenda: Sanctions Against Russia and Tentative Continuation of Dialogue
Relations between Russia and the West continue to impact the energy sector, although there has been no direct progress in resolving the sanctions standoff. Following the change of administration in Washington in 2025, contacts between the US and Russia have intensified: in August, the presidents of the two countries met in Alaska, signaling a willingness to continue dialogue. However, fundamental disagreements persist, and all major sanctions against the Russian energy sector remain in place. Moreover, the US introduced targeted restrictions in January against several intermediaries transporting Russian oil, aiming to strengthen oversight of compliance with the price cap.
Nevertheless, analysts believe that President Donald Trump's administration will avoid harsh measures that could spike global oil and gasoline prices in the US: controlling fuel costs for consumers remains a priority. Meanwhile, Europe is set on a long-term reduction of dependence on Russian energy sources: the EU plans to extend mandatory targets for filling gas storages and legally enshrine the cessation of pipeline gas imports from Russia. Russia itself is redirecting oil and gas exports to alternative markets – primarily in Asia – offering significant price discounts to buyers from China, India, and other countries. This redistribution of flows mitigates the impact of sanctions, although it does reduce the export revenues of Russian oil and gas companies.
Venezuela: Change of Government and Return of Oil to the Global Market
In early January, Venezuela, which possesses the largest oil reserves in the world, came into the spotlight. A rapid change of government occurred in the country: as a result of a US-backed operation, President Nicolas Maduro was ousted and taken into custody, while the interim government in Caracas is led by Delcy Rodriguez. The Trump administration promptly announced plans to attract up to $100 billion in investments to revitalize Venezuela's dilapidated oil sector and significantly increase production in the near term. Initial export deals for Venezuelan oil have already been concluded: major trading houses Vitol (Netherlands) and Trafigura (Singapore) have received special licenses and begun shipments of crude from previously accumulated stocks.
According to agreements with the interim authorities, up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil will be sold in the upcoming weeks to US refineries and other buyers, ensuring much-needed cash inflows for the country. However, major international oil companies are acting cautiously: over the years of sanctions, Venezuela has accumulated debt problems and its oil infrastructure has severely degraded. Experts emphasize that even with political support from the US, restoring production to early 2010 levels (over 2 million barrels per day) will take several years. Nevertheless, Venezuela's return to the global oil market is already psychologically impacting prices, intensifying expectations of a prolonged supply surplus.
Asia: India and China Balancing Between Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Under increasing pressure from Western sanctions and striving to secure its energy supply, New Delhi has recently reduced imports of Russian oil and gas. The Indian government is diversifying its imports, focusing on supplies from the Middle East and its traditional partners. Concurrently, the country is stimulating domestic oil and gas production, attracting investments in the exploration of new fields. For the rapidly growing Indian economy, ensuring stable fuel supplies is a key priority, thus India is attempting to navigate between advantageous prices from sanctioned barrels and the risk of secondary sanctions.
- China: As the world's largest importer of energy resources, China continues to increase its own hydrocarbon production, striving to reduce dependence on external sources. In 2025, oil production in China rose and approached historical highs, yet domestic production covers only about 30% of the country's needs. Beijing is actively purchasing oil from external markets, taking advantage of favorable prices. Moreover, China remains a significant buyer of discounted Russian oil, although overall import volumes have stabilized due to economic slowdown. The Chinese government is also investing in strategic oil reserves and entering into long-term gas supply contracts to secure energy supply amidst geopolitical uncertainty.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global shift towards clean energy continues to accelerate. By the end of 2025, several countries reported record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources. For example, in the EU, the combined share of solar and wind in generation briefly exceeded 60% in the summer of 2025, China's annual installations of solar and wind capacities reached a new historical maximum, and in the US, renewable sources generated more than 20% of the total electricity output for the year for the first time. Investments in renewable energy remain on the rise globally, driven by both environmental goals and the desire for energy independence.
At the same time, ensuring the reliability of energy systems necessitates the retention of traditional generation. Due to the variability of solar and wind energy, many countries are forced to keep gas and coal power plants in reserve to cover peak loads and prevent outages. Governments are postponing the closure of individual coal-fired power plants and expanding energy storage system capabilities, but a complete abandonment of oil, gas, and coal in the energy mix does not seem feasible at present. Traditional energy resources continue to play a key role in meeting baseline demand, complementing the rapidly growing sector of renewable energy.
Coal: Steady High Demand and Its Role in Energy Balance
Despite the increasing focus on clean energy, the global coal market remains surprisingly resilient. Global coal demand in 2025 was close to record levels, with only a slight decline expected in 2026. The main growth in consumption comes from Asian economies – primarily China and India – where coal remains one of the main sources of electricity due to its availability and stability of generation. These countries continue to commission modern coal-fired power plants to meet growing demand, offsetting declines in coal usage in Europe and North America.
International coal prices remain relatively high but without sharp spikes, reflecting a balance of supply and demand. Major exporters – such as Indonesia, Australia, and Russia – maintain a consistently high level of production and exports, which allows them to meet buyers' needs. For many developing countries, coal remains a crucial part of the energy balance in the near term, providing energy for industry and households until alternative sources have scaled sufficiently.
The Russian Fuel Market: Measures to Stabilize Prices and Ensure Supplies
On the domestic refined products market in Russia, authorities continue to take steps to prevent price spikes and fuel shortages. After a surge in wholesale gasoline and diesel prices last autumn, the government implemented export restrictions that have been extended multiple times. In particular, the temporary ban on the export of motor gasoline has recently been extended until the end of February 2026.
These measures aim to saturate the domestic market and reduce price tensions: previously, some regions experienced supply disruptions and limits on fuel sales at gas stations. Concurrently, regulatory authorities have increased the sales quotas for oil companies on the exchange and adjusted the damping mechanism for subsidies to make domestic market supplies more profitable for refineries. As a result, by the beginning of 2026, the situation began to stabilize: wholesale prices have stopped rising, and retail prices at gas stations have slowed their growth. The government has stated its readiness to continue applying necessary tools – from higher export duties to direct interventions – to keep domestic fuel prices under control.
