Oil and Gas News and Energy - February 28, 2026

Current Oil & Gas and Energy News for February 28, 2026: Market Dynamics of Oil and Decisions by OPEC+, Situation in Gas and LNG Markets, Electricity and RES, Coal, Refined Products, and Refineries. A Global Overview for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.

The global energy market enters the weekend with heightened volatility: oil is maintaining a "geopolitical premium" amid tensions in the Middle East and expectations regarding OPEC+ decisions. The gas and electricity markets are balancing between weather factors, LNG volumes, and generation status, while refined products and refineries signal an approaching seasonal shift in demand. For investors and market participants, the key question in the coming days is whether the risk premium in oil will persist and how quickly raw material and fuel flows will be redistributed between regions.

Oil: Prices Hold on Risk Premium and Supply Expectations

Oil prices finished the week with a noticeable increase, reflecting a reevaluation of supply risks through key maritime routes and the likelihood of short-term export disruptions from the Persian Gulf region. The market is pricing in scenarios where physical flows might be "reconfigured" (redirected shipments, rising spot premiums, increasing freight rates) even before actual supply constraints emerge. In this environment, spreads and differentials between oil grades become as important as the futures themselves: participants are particularly attentive to premiums for Middle Eastern benchmark grades and demand resilience in Asia.

• Drivers: Middle Eastern geopolitics, OPEC+ production expectations, demand dynamics in Asia, signals regarding U.S. inventories.
• Risks: rapid return of "excess supply" with eased tensions, increasing competition for market share.

OPEC+: Market Awaits "Fine-Tuning" of Quotas and Signals for Spring

The focus lies on a potential return to moderate production increases from key OPEC+ participants. The "small step" scenario is perceived as a compromise: it helps maintain market share amidst competition and possible summer demand growth while not overloading the balance against the backdrop of slowing global economic risks. Investors are also assessing the likelihood of expedited decisions in the event of severe geopolitical escalations: in such a configuration, not only official quotas matter, but also the real capacity to rapidly increase export shipments.

1. Baseline Scenario: cautious production increase starting in April while maintaining market "manageability."
2. Alternative Scenario: maintenance of restrictions in the event of decreased demand or rising inventories.
3. Stress Scenario: short-term supply increase by certain producers to offset possible disruptions.

U.S.: Inventory, Production, and Refineries — A Signal of Balance in Raw Materials and Fuel

U.S. statistics on oil balance indicate potential sharp weekly fluctuations on the raw material side: rising commercial inventories may coincide with lower refinery utilization and changes in imports. For the global energy market, this means that even with increasing oil inventories in the U.S., the situation with refined products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) may remain tighter due to processing constraints and seasonal demand dynamics. Market participants are also closely monitoring the profitability of processing and spreads on products, as these drive the motivation for refineries to increase capacities.

• What Investors Should Watch: trends in gasoline and distillate inventories, refinery utilization, and imports of raw materials and refined products.
• Market Conclusion: rising oil inventories alone are not "bearish" if the refined products market remains tight.

Gas and LNG: Europe, Asia, and Competition for Molecules

The gas market continues to operate under the logic of regional competition. Europe enters the end of winter with heightened sensitivity to weather and supply stability, while the role of LNG remains critical: increased volumes at terminals and flexible supplies smooth out price spikes. In Asia, LNG demand is traditionally supported by seasonal factors and electricity needs, while spot price dynamics reflect the struggle for "quick" shipments. For portfolios in the energy sector, this creates mixed effects: gas producers and LNG projects benefit from steady demand, while energy-intensive industries gain from periods of price pullback.

1. Europe: focusing on inventory levels in underground gas storage, weather conditions, and the availability of Norwegian and LNG flows.
2. Asia: demand from the energy sector and industry, sensitivity to freight and spot premiums.
3. U.S. internal demand balance, LNG exports, and weather surprises affecting Henry Hub.

Electricity and RES: Volatility Driven by Wind, Temperature, and Generation Availability

Electricity markets remain jittery where balance relies on weather-driven generation and limited system maneuverability. During periods of declining wind generation and rising consumption, gas generation plays a crucial role, directly linking electricity prices to gas quotations and carbon costs. Meanwhile, spikes in wind and high RES output can sharply "land" spot prices in specific markets. For the global energy market, this means that investment stories in RES increasingly depend on the quality of networks, storage solutions, flexible capacities, and power market rules.

• Focus for the Week: weather forecasts, intersystem flow utilization, and availability of nuclear and gas generation.
• Best Practice for Companies: hedging electricity and gas, managing load profiles, contracting RES.

Coal and Carbon: Renewed Interest in Coal and Price Anchors for Energy Balance

Coal remains a significant part of the energy balance in many regions, especially when gas is expensive or limited and electricity demand is high. Prices for thermal coal are supported by a combination of seasonal demand and logistical constraints, as well as competition between Atlantic and Pacific markets. Meanwhile, carbon markets in Europe react to the dynamics of RES output and gas burn: an increase in the share of wind and solar reduces the need for quotas for thermal generation, creating "windows" for correction. As a result, coal and carbon become components of the same equation, influencing energy companies' fuel mix decisions.

1. Coal: price support amid strong demand and supply constraints.
2. Carbon: sensitivity to wind, electricity demand, and generation structure.
3. Conclusion: coal remains a backup anchor for energy security where RES and grid infrastructure are not yet complete.

Refined Products and Refineries: Profitability, Seasonality, and Disruption Risks

The refined products segment is gradually shifting focus from winter distillates to preparing for spring-summer demand for gasoline and jet fuel. In this context, two factors are critical: planned refinery maintenance and the resilience of logistics (marine transport, bottlenecks in channels, freight). Even with relatively balanced oil inventories, local fuel shortages can create price spikes in individual markets. For oil companies and traders, this highlights the importance of managing product portfolios, optimizing processing, and accessing flexible logistics.

• What Matters to the Market: schedules for refinery maintenance, diesel and gasoline export flows, demand in aviation.
• Global Effect: refined product shortages may support oil prices even amid rising raw material inventories.

What This Means for Investors and Energy Sector Participants: Checklist for the Next 24 Hours

In the next 24–72 hours, key decisions and publications could quickly shift expectations for oil, gas, and electricity. Strategically, the energy market remains in a "risk reassessment" mode: geopolitics forms a premium in oil, OPEC+ sets the supply framework, while weather factors and RES determine gas and electricity volatility. In such an environment, those who manage risks and have access to physical flows are positioned to gain.

1. Oil: monitor news from the Middle East and comments ahead of OPEC+ decisions; evaluate grade differentials and spreads.
2. Gas and LNG: monitor weather models in Europe and North America, withdrawal/injection rates in storage, and spot dynamics in Asia.
3. Electricity and RES: watch wind and temperature forecasts, availability of baseload generation, and network constraints.
4. Coal and Refined Products: check logistics news, refinery maintenance schedules, and processing profitability.

Saturday, February 28, 2026, is marked by "the premium of uncertainty" in oil and high sensitivity of the energy sector to weather and infrastructure. For global energy portfolios, an optimal strategy involves a combination of risk discipline, a focus on flows (not just prices), and prioritization of companies with strong logistics, resilient processing capabilities, and competitive cost structures.