Global News on Oil, Gas, and Energy as of December 5, 2025: Price Dynamics of Oil and Gas, OPEC+ Policies, Sanctions, Energy Markets in Europe and Asia, Russian Energy Sector, Renewable Energy, and Coal. Analytics for Investors and Industry Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of December 5, 2025, demonstrate a mixed dynamic in global markets amid cautious hopes for peaceful resolution and ongoing risks of oversupply. Global oil prices remain near multi-month lows: Brent crude fluctuates around $62-63 per barrel, while US WTI is around $59. These levels are significantly lower than those seen mid-year and reflect a combination of factors—from expectations of progress in peace negotiations to signs of oversupply. Conversely, the European gas market is entering winter relatively confidently: underground gas storage (UGS) in EU countries is over 85% full, providing a substantial safety margin, and wholesale prices (TTF index) are kept below €30 per MW·h, which is considerably lower than peak prices seen in previous years.
At the same time, geopolitical tension surrounding energy continues to simmer. The West is intensifying sanctions on the Russian energy sector—on December 4, the European Union legally confirmed a phased abandonment of Russian gas imports by 2027 and a swift reduction of remaining oil supplies from Russia. Attempts at diplomatic conflict resolution have yet to yield tangible results, and consequently, restrictions and supply risks remain. Within Russia, authorities are extending emergency measures to stabilize the domestic fuel market following an autumn fuel shortage of gasoline and diesel, imposing strict export limits on refined products. Concurrently, global energy is accelerating its “green” transition: investments in renewable energy are hitting record highs, with new incentives being introduced, although traditional resources—oil, gas, and coal—still play a crucial role in the energy balance of most countries. Comprehensive analysis of the situation is available for investors and industry participants.
Oil Market: Hopes for Peace and Oversupply Pressure Prices
At the beginning of December, oil prices are under pressure and showing volatility near local lows. The North Sea Brent blend, after relative stability in the autumn, has dropped to around $62 per barrel, while WTI futures have fallen to $59. Current prices are approximately 15% lower than levels seen a year ago. The market is pricing in a potential easing of restrictions on Russian oil contingent on the success of peace negotiations between Moscow and Washington, which reduces the geopolitical premium in prices. Simultaneously, concerns regarding oversupply are intensifying: industry data indicate rising inventories of crude oil and fuel, while the seasonal decline in demand at year-end and a slowdown in China's economy constrain consumption. The OPEC+ oil alliance, during its meeting on November 30, confirmed the maintenance of current production quotas until the end of 2026, signaling an unwillingness to increase supply and risk price collapse. As a result, the combined influence of these factors has shifted the market balance toward excess supply. Prices remain low as market participants assess the prospects for a peace agreement and further steps from OPEC+ in response to changing conditions.
Gas Market: Winter Begins with Comfortable Stocks and Moderate Prices
The European natural gas market is approaching the peak of the heating season without sharp upheavals. Thanks to timely fuel injection and a mild start to winter, EU countries are entering December with significantly filled gas storage facilities and relatively low prices. This mitigates the threat of a repeat of the crises seen in 2022. Key factors in the current state of the European gas market include:
- High UGS Fill Levels: According to industry monitoring, the average gas storage filling level in the EU exceeds 85%, significantly above the norm for the start of winter. The accumulated reserves create a reliable “safety cushion” in anticipation of prolonged cold spells and supply disruptions.
- Record LNG Imports: European consumers continue to actively purchase liquefied natural gas in the global market. Weakening demand for LNG in Asia has freed up additional volumes for Europe, partially compensating for the fall in pipeline supplies from Russia. As a result, the inflow of LNG remains high, helping to keep prices at moderate levels.
- Moderate Demand and Diversification: Mild weather at the beginning of winter and energy conservation measures are restraining gas consumption growth. At the same time, the EU is diversifying its sources: gas imports from Norway, North Africa, and other regions are increasing, enhancing energy security and reducing dependence on Russian supplies.
- Price Stabilization: Wholesale gas prices are now nearly three times lower than the extreme peaks of last year. The Dutch TTF index is holding around €28-30 per MW·h. The loading of storage and market balancing have helped avoid new price surges even amid reductions in gas imports from Russia.
Thus, Europe is entering winter with a impressive safety margin in the gas market. Even in the case of a cold snap, accumulated stocks and flexible supply chains through LNG can mitigate potential shocks. However, in the long term, the situation will depend on weather conditions and global demand, particularly if energy needs in Asia start to rise again.
Russian Market: Fuel Shortages and Extension of Export Restrictions
In autumn 2025, Russia experienced increasing issues related to a shortage of motor fuel (gasoline and diesel) in the domestic market due to the convergence of several factors. A rise in seasonal demand (harvest campaigns increased fuel consumption) coincided with a decrease in supply from refineries, some of which reduced output due to unscheduled repairs and drone attacks on infrastructure. In several regions, there were disruptions in gasoline supplies, prompting the government to intervene swiftly to stabilize the situation. Authorities have implemented emergency measures that remain in effect:
- Ban on Gasoline Exports: At the end of August, the Russian government imposed a temporary complete ban on the export of motor gasoline by all producers and traders (with the exception of supplies under intergovernmental agreements). Initially, the measure was planned to last until October but has now been extended at least until December 31, 2025, due to ongoing pressure in the domestic fuel market.
- Restriction on Diesel Exports: Simultaneously, until the end of the year, the export of diesel fuel by independent traders is banned. Oil companies with their own refineries retain the option for limited diesel exports to avoid halting refining. This partial ban aims to ensure adequate supplies of refined products within the country and prevent a recurrence of shortages.
According to relevant officials, the fuel crisis that emerged in autumn is localized and temporary in nature. Emergency reserves were mobilized, and refining is gradually recovering following unscheduled downtime. By the beginning of winter, the situation has stabilized somewhat: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have retreated from September peaks, although they remain above last year's levels. The priority for the government is to fully supply the domestic market and prevent a new spike in prices, so tight export restrictions may be extended into 2026 if necessary.
Sanctions and Policy: Intensified Pressure from the West and Search for Compromises
The collective West continues to tighten its policy regarding the Russian FEC, showing no signs of softening sanctions. On December 4, EU leaders finalized the plan for a complete and indefinite ban on imports of Russian pipeline gas by the end of 2026 (with a halt to LNG purchases by 2027) as part of a new sanctions package. This move is intended to deprive Moscow of a significant portion of its export revenues in the medium term. Hungary and Slovakia, which depend on Russian resources, traditionally opposed the initiative; however, their objections could not block the collective decision of the EU.
Simultaneously, the United States is ramping up its own pressure. The administration of President Donald Trump is taking a hard stance towards countries cooperating with Russia in the energy sector. In particular, Washington imposed increased tariffs on a range of Indian goods in 2025, partially in response to India's purchases of Russian oil, and has signaled a review of easing measures for Venezuela. These steps create uncertainty around the future supply of Venezuelan oil on the global market. Meanwhile, direct negotiations between Moscow and Washington regarding conflict resolution have not yielded notable progress—a recent consultation in Moscow involving US envoys concluded without breakthroughs. The conflict in Ukraine continues, and all previously imposed restrictions on Russian energy exports remain in place. Western companies continue to avoid new investments in Russia. Thus, the geopolitical standoff surrounding energy persists, adding long-term risks and uncertainty to the market.
Asia: India and China Focus on Energy Security
The largest developing economies in Asia—India and China—continue to focus on ensuring their energy security while balancing the benefits of cheap imports and external pressures. Asian countries actively leverage opportunities to purchase energy resources under favorable conditions while simultaneously developing domestic projects and cooperation. The current situation is as follows:
- India: Under pressure from the West, New Delhi temporarily reduced purchases of Russian oil in late autumn; however, India remains one of Moscow's key clients. Indian refineries continue to process discounted Urals oil to meet domestic fuel needs and redirect excess refined products for export. President Vladimir Putin visited India on December 4, highlighting the close ties between the two countries. It is expected that on December 5, at a summit in New Delhi, the parties will discuss new agreements on long-term oil supplies and potential projects in the gas sector. Russia is also looking to increase imports of Indian goods to balance trade, despite US sanctions pressure (including high tariffs on Indian exports due to cooperation with Russia in the oil sector).
- China: Despite an economic slowdown, Beijing maintains a key role in the global energy market. Chinese companies are diversifying their import channels: additional long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas purchases (including from Qatar and the USA) are being signed, pipeline gas supplies from Central Asia are being expanded, and investments in overseas oil and gas production are increasing. Concurrently, China is gradually ramping up its own hydrocarbon production, although this is still insufficient to fully cover domestic demand. The country continues to make significant coal purchases to safeguard its energy system during the transition period. Both India and China are actively investing in renewable energy development; however, they do not intend to abandon traditional sources—oil, gas, and coal—which still form the backbone of their energy balance in the coming years.
Renewable Energy: Record Investments Supported by Governments
The global transition to clean energy continues to gain momentum, setting new investment and capacity installation records. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global investment in renewable energy exceeded $2 trillion in 2025—more than double the total investment in the oil and gas sector during the same period. The primary flow of capital is directed toward the construction of solar and wind power plants, as well as related infrastructure—high-voltage grids and storage systems. At the COP30 climate summit, world leaders reaffirmed their commitment to accelerate greenhouse gas emissions reductions and significantly increase renewable energy capacities by 2030. To achieve these objectives, a range of initiatives is proposed:
- Expedited Approval Processes: Shorten review times and simplify the issuance of permits for the construction of renewable energy facilities, modernization of grids, and implementation of other low-carbon projects.
- Expansion of Government Support: Introduce additional incentives for "green" energy—special tariffs, tax breaks, subsidies, and government guarantees—to attract more investments and reduce risks for businesses.
- Funding Transitions in Developing Countries: Increase international financial assistance for emerging market economies to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy where domestic resources are scarce. Targeted funds are being created to lower the costs of "green" projects in the most vulnerable regions.
The rapid growth of renewable energy is already causing shifts in the global energy balance. According to analytical centers, carbon-free sources (renewables alongside nuclear power) account for over 40% of electricity generation worldwide, and this share continues to grow steadily. Experts note that while there may be fluctuations in the short term due to weather conditions or spikes in consumption, the long-term trend is evident: clean energy is gradually displacing fossil fuels, moving towards the advent of a new low-carbon era.
Coal: High Demand Supports the Market, But the Peak is Near
Despite global efforts to decarbonize, the global coal market in 2025 remains one of the largest in history. Global coal consumption is sustained at record levels—around 8.8-8.9 billion tons per year, a slight increase over the previous year's figures. Demand continues to grow in developing Asian economies (primarily in India and Southeast Asia), compensating for the reduction in coal use in Europe and North America. According to the IEA, global coal consumption even declined slightly in the first half of 2025 due to increased generation from renewables and mild weather; however, a slight increase (~1%) is expected by the year's end. Thus, 2025 will mark the third consecutive year with near-record levels of coal burning.
Coal production is also increasing—especially in China and India, which are ramping up domestic production to reduce import dependency. Prices for thermal coal remain stable as high Asian demand maintains market balance. However, analysts believe that global coal demand has reached a plateau and will gradually decline in the coming years as renewable energy development accelerates and climate policies tighten.
