Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Industry News for Wednesday, December 17, 2025. Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, Oil Refineries, Key Events and Trends in Global Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) on December 17, 2025, are attracting the attention of investors, market participants, and major fuel companies due to their contradictory nature. The fall in oil prices to multi-year lows coincides with a sharp rise in gas prices in the United States, creating a mixed picture in global energy markets. The global oil market remains under pressure from excess supply and sluggish demand, with Brent prices hovering around $60 per barrel (the lowest levels in the last four years), reflecting a fragile balance of factors. Meanwhile, the gas sector exhibits divergent trends: in Europe, prices remain moderate due to high inventories, while in America, wholesale gas prices are hitting records, triggering a localized energy crisis. Concurrently, against the backdrop of ongoing sanctions against Russia, its oil and gas revenues are plummeting, prompting authorities to continue supporting the domestic fuel market. At the same time, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—renewable energy is hitting record levels in many countries, although states are not yet abandoning traditional resources for the reliability of their energy systems. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of the given date.
Oil Market: Excess Supply and Moderate Demand Pressuring Prices
Global oil prices continued to decline under the influence of fundamental factors. The North Sea Brent is trading around $60 per barrel, while American WTI is near $56. Current levels are approximately 20% lower than a year ago, reflecting the continued market correction following price peaks in previous years. Multiple factors are influencing price dynamics:
- OPEC+ Production Increase: The oil alliance is overall increasing market supply, despite falling prices. Key participants of the agreement have partially restored production volumes: in December 2025, the total quota was raised by approximately 137,000 barrels per day (as part of a previously announced plan). Although OPEC+ has taken a pause for the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal demand decline, current production levels remain high.
- Supply Growth Outside OPEC: In addition to OPEC countries, other producers have also ramped up production. In the United States, oil production reached record levels (around 13 million barrels per day), and significant export growth is shown by countries in Latin America and Africa. Collectively, this is adding more oil to the market and reinforcing the trend toward supply surplus.
- Slower Demand Growth: The pace of global oil consumption growth has slowed down. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects demand growth in 2025 to be less than 1 million barrels per day (compared to approximately 2.5 million in 2023), while OPEC's estimates are around +1.3 million b/d. Reasons include weakened economic activity in several countries, increased energy efficiency, and relatively high prices in previous years that have stimulated energy conservation. An additional factor is muted industrial growth in China, which limits the appetite of the world's second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitics and Expectations: Market uncertainty continues to be influenced by international relations dynamics. On one side, the continuation of sanctions against Russia and relative instability in the Middle East could support prices; however, the general supply surplus mitigates this effect. On the other hand, signals of a possible dialogue (such as discussions in the U.S. regarding plans for Russia's reintegration into the global economy after the resolution of the conflict) somewhat lower the geopolitical "premium" in oil prices. As a result, prices fluctuate within a narrow range without sharp spikes, lacking the impetus for a new rally or collapse.
The cumulative impact of these factors results in a surplus of supply over demand, keeping the oil market in a state of excess. Exchange prices confidently remain significantly below the levels of previous years. Some analysts believe that if current trends persist, the average price of Brent could drop to around $50 per barrel in 2026.
Gas Market: European Stability and Price Surge in the U.S.
In the gas market, divergent trends are observed. Europe and Asia are entering winter relatively confidently, while North America is experiencing an unprecedented price surge for fuel. The regional situation can be summarized as follows:
- Europe: EU countries have entered the winter season with strong gas inventories. Underground storage facilities were approximately 75% full at the beginning of December (compared to around 85% a year ago). Thanks to this buffer and a steady influx of LNG, exchange prices remain low: TTF hub prices have fallen below €30/MWh (≈$320 per thousand cubic meters). This situation is favorable for European industry and electricity at the threshold of peak winter demand.
- U.S.: The American gas market, in contrast, is experiencing a price shock. Wholesale prices at the Henry Hub have surpassed $5.3 per million BTU (≈$180 per thousand cubic meters)—more than 70% higher than a year ago. This rise is due to record levels of liquefied natural gas exports: significant volumes of American LNG are going abroad, provoking shortages in the domestic market and raising tariffs for electric power plants and consumers. Underinvestment in gas infrastructure has exacerbated the problem of market segmentation between internal and external markets. As a result, several energy companies were forced to increase coal usage to contain costs—expensive gas temporarily raised the share of coal generation in the U.S.
- Asia: In key Asian markets, gas prices remain relatively stable. Importers in the region are secured by long-term contracts, and a mild start to winter has not created a spike in demand. In China and India, gas consumption growth remains moderate due to muted economic growth, preventing heightened competition with Europe for LNG shipments. However, analysts caution that a sudden cold snap or accelerated economic growth in China could shift the balance: heightened demand in Asia could reinvigorate global gas prices and intensify the competition for LNG between East and West.
Thus, the global gas market presents a dual picture. Europe is currently enjoying relatively low prices and comfortable inventories, while expensive gas in North America has created local difficulties for energy supply. Market participants are closely monitoring weather and economic factors that could alter this balance in the coming months.
International Politics: Sanction Pressure and Cautious Signals for Dialogue
In the geopolitical sphere, the confrontation over Russia's energy resources persists. In late October, the European Union approved its 19th sanctions package, further tightening restrictive measures. In particular, any financial and logistical services related to the purchase, transportation, or insurance of Russian oil for key Russian oil and gas companies were completely banned—closing the last loopholes for exporting raw materials to Europe. At the beginning of 2026, the anticipated 20th EU sanctions package is expected to affect new sectors (including nuclear, steel, oil refining, and fertilizers), further complicating trade operations with Russia.
Simultaneously, the diplomatic horizon has seen the first hints of a possible compromise in the future. According to insiders, in recent weeks the U.S. has presented European allies with a series of proposals for gradually reintegrating Russia into the global economy—of course, contingent on peace and crisis resolution. While these ideas are still unofficial and no easing of sanctions has been introduced, the mere existence of such discussions indicates a search for pathways to dialogue in the long term. Currently, the sanctions regime remains strict, and energy resources from Russia continue to be sold at significant discounts to a limited number of purchasing countries. Markets are closely monitoring developments: the emergence of real peace initiatives could improve investor sentiment and soften the sanctions rhetoric, while a lack of progress threatens new restrictions for the Russian energy sector.
Asia: India and China Between Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Facing Western sanctions, New Delhi has made it clear that it cannot sharply cut imports of Russian oil and gas, as they are crucial for national energy security. Indian consumers have secured favorable conditions: Russian suppliers are offering Urals oil at significant discounts (estimated at no less than $5 below Brent prices) to maintain their market share in India. As a result, India continues to purchase Russian oil in large quantities at preferential prices and is even increasing the import of oil products from Russia to meet growing demand. Parallelly, the government is taking steps to reduce future dependence on imports. In August 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a national program for deepwater oil and gas exploration. Within this framework, the state company ONGC started drilling ultra-deep wells (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea, and initial results appear promising. This “deepwater mission” is aimed at discovering new hydrocarbon reserves and bringing India closer to the goal of energy independence.
- China: Asia's largest economy is also increasing its energy resource purchases while ramping up domestic production. Chinese importers remain the leading buyers of Russian oil (Beijing has not joined sanctions and capitalizes on the opportunity to acquire raw materials at reduced prices). Analysts estimate that in 2025 total crude oil imports into China will increase by approximately 3% compared to the previous year, whereas gas imports will decrease by around 6% due to increased domestic production and moderate demand. Concurrently, Beijing is investing significant resources in developing its national oil and gas extraction: in 2025, oil production in China increased by about 1.7%, while gas production rose by more than 6%. The increase in internal production helps partially meet economic needs but does not eliminate the need for imports. Given the massive scale of consumption, China's reliance on external supplies remains high: it is expected that in the coming years the country will import no less than 70% of its used oil and around 40% of gas. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers—India and China—will continue to play a key role in global raw material markets, combining strategies for securing imports with the development of their resource base.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy is rapidly accelerating. Many countries are setting records for electricity generation from renewable sources (RES). In Europe, by the end of 2024, total generation at solar and wind power plants first exceeded electricity production at coal and gas-fired power plants. This trend has continued into 2025: thanks to the commissioning of new capacities, the share of "green" electricity in the EU is steadily growing, while coal's share in the energy mix is decreasing again (after a temporary increase during the 2022–2023 crisis). In the U.S., renewable energy has also achieved historic levels—over 30% of total generation comes from RES, and the total volume of electricity generated by wind and solar has, in 2025, for the first time, surpassed that generated by coal plants. China, a leader in installed "green" capacities, launches dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines each year, continuously setting new generation records. Companies and investors worldwide are pouring colossal sums into clean energy development: according to IEA estimates, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 exceeded $3 trillion, with more than half of this funding directed towards RES projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems. In line with this trend, the European Union has set a new goal—to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% from 1990 levels by 2040, establishing an extremely high pace for phasing out fossil fuels in favor of low-carbon technologies.
At the same time, energy systems still rely on conventional generation for stability. The rising share of solar and wind creates challenges for balancing the grid during times when RES are unavailable (such as at night or during calm periods). To meet peak demand and reserve capacity, gas and even coal power plants are being used again in some cases. For example, in certain European countries last winter, it was necessary to temporarily increase production at coal plants during windy cold weather—despite the environmental costs. Similarly, in the fall of 2025, the high cost of gas in the U.S. forced energy specialists to temporarily increase coal generation. To enhance the reliability of energy supply, many governments are investing in developing energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage plants) and smart grids that can flexibly manage load. Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable sources will surpass fossil fuels in global electricity generation volume, ultimately overtaking coal. However, in the coming years, the support of traditional power plants remains necessary as a safeguard against shortages. In other words, the global energy transition is reaching unprecedented heights but requires a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources.
Coal: Stable Market Amid High Demand
The accelerated development of renewable energy has not diminished the coal industry's key role. The global coal market remains a significant and vital segment of the energy balance. Demand for coal is consistently high, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and electricity needs support intensive consumption of this fuel. China—the world’s largest consumer and producer of coal—is burning coal at nearly record levels in 2025. Chinese mines are extracting over 4 billion tons of coal annually, meeting most internal needs; however, this volume is barely sufficient during peak load periods (for example, during summer heat when air conditioners are widely used). India, which has large coal reserves, is also increasing its coal consumption: over 70% of electricity in the country is still generated from coal-fired plants, and coal consumption continues to grow along with the economy. In other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.), the construction of new coal-fired power plants is ongoing to meet the growing needs of the population and industry.
Supply in the global market has adapted to this steady demand. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa—have significantly boosted production and shipments of thermal coal to foreign markets in recent years. This has allowed prices to remain relatively stable. Following price spikes in 2022, thermal coal prices have returned to their usual range and have fluctuated in recent months without sharp changes. The balance between supply and demand looks well-adjusted: consumers continue to receive fuel, and producers maintain consistent sales at favorable prices. While many countries have announced plans to gradually reduce coal use for climate goals, in the short term, this resource remains indispensable for powering billions of people. Experts estimate that in the next 5–10 years, coal generation—especially in Asia—will maintain a significant role despite global decarbonization efforts. Thus, the coal sector is currently going through a period of relative equilibrium: demand remains consistently high, prices are moderate, and the industry continues to be a pillar of the global energy landscape.
Russian Oil Product Market: Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
In the domestic fuel segment of Russia, emergency measures were taken in the last quarter to normalize the pricing situation. As early as August, wholesale market prices for gasoline in the country reached new record highs, exceeding 2023 levels. The reasons were a spike in summer demand (tourism season and harvest campaign) and limited fuel supply due to unscheduled refinery repairs and logistical disruptions. The government was forced to tighten market regulation, promptly implemented a set of measures to cool prices:
- Export Ban: A complete ban on the export of automotive gasoline and diesel fuel was implemented in September and later extended until the end of 2025. This measure applied to all producers (including major oil companies) and aims to direct additional volumes to the domestic market.
- Distribution Control: Authorities tightened monitoring of fuel shipments within the country. Refineries were instructed to prioritize domestic market needs and prevent speculative trading between suppliers. Concurrently, efforts are being made to develop direct contracts between refineries and fuel companies (retail gas station networks) to eliminate excess intermediaries from the sales chain and prevent speculative price increases.
- Industry Subsidies: Incentives for fuel producers have been retained. The budget compensates oil companies for part of the lost revenues when supplying to the domestic market (the damping mechanism), which incentivizes them to direct sufficient volumes of oil products to domestic gas stations, despite lower profitability compared to export.
The combination of these measures is already yielding results—the fuel crisis was largely managed in the fall. Despite record stock market prices for gasoline, retail prices at gas stations rose much more slowly (about 5% year-to-date, which roughly aligns with overall inflation). A shortage at gas stations has been avoided; the network of gas stations is adequately supplied with necessary resources. The government, for its part, is prepared to extend export restrictions as needed (considering, in particular, a further extension of the ban on gasoline and diesel exports until February 2026) and promptly engage fuel reserves to stabilize the market. Oversight of the situation remains at the highest level—the relevant ministries and the Deputy Prime Minister are overseeing the issue, assuring that all efforts will be made to maintain stable fuel supply to the domestic market and keep prices within acceptable limits for consumers.
