Current Global News in Oil, Gas, and Energy on December 16, 2025: Oil and Gas Prices, Energy Market, Renewables, Coal, Refineries, Processing, and Global Trends. A Comprehensive Overview for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
The latest developments in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of December 16, 2025, are drawing attention from investors and market participants due to their complexity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed readiness to abandon the pursuit of NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe—this step instills hope for possible de-escalation of the prolonged conflict. Meanwhile, the sanctions pressure on Russia is intensifying: the European Union has extended the freeze on Russian assets indefinitely until the conflict is resolved and is discussing a complete ban on the remaining supplies of Russian oil starting in early 2026, while already agreeing to permanently stop importing Russian gas by 2027. Fundamental factors of oversupply and slowed demand continue to dominate the global oil market—Brent crude prices remain around the lower end of $60 per barrel, reflecting a fragile balance of power. The European gas market is demonstrating relative resilience: underground gas storage in the EU is over 85% full, providing a buffer ahead of winter and keeping prices at a moderate level. In the meantime, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—new records in generation from renewable sources are being set in various regions, although countries have not yet given up on traditional resources for the reliability of their energy systems. In Russia, after previous price spikes, authorities are continuing the implementation of a package of measures aimed at stabilizing the situation in the domestic fuel market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, power, coal, and renewable sectors, as well as petroleum product and processing markets on this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply Keeps Prices at Multi-Year Lows
Global oil prices maintain a relatively stable yet low level, influenced by fundamental factors. The North Sea Brent is trading at around $60–62 per barrel, while U.S. WTI is near $57–59. Current quotes are about 15% lower than year-ago levels, reflecting a gradual market correction following the peaks of the energy crisis of 2022–2023. The primary pressure on prices stems from oversupply amidst moderate demand growth. In September, global oil production reached a record 109 million barrels per day, and although volumes slightly contracted in November (by about 1.5 million barrels per day) due to targeted OPEC+ restrictions and disruptions among some producers, overall supply remains ample. Global oil stocks have risen to a four-year high—approximately 8 billion barrels, indicating an oversupply of about 1–2 million barrels per day for much of the year. OPEC+ signals readiness to maintain or even tighten production restrictions through 2026, seeking to prevent further price declines. Sanctions against exporters like Russia and Iran have decreased their oil exports, but this is not yet sufficient for a significant market shortage—other players, including Middle Eastern countries, have ramped up supplies. The market structure is nearing contango (where near-term futures prices are lower than longer-term ones), indicating expectations of continued oversupply in the short term. At the same time, geopolitical risks—from the conflict in Eastern Europe to instability in the Middle East—continue to support the market, preventing prices from falling too low. As a result, oil prices balance on a narrow range, remaining at multi-year lows without sharp downturns, reflecting a fragile balance between oversupply and uncertainty factors.
Gas Market: Comfortable Stocks in Europe and Impact of Mild Weather
The European gas market looks calm and balanced as the year comes to a close. Storage levels in the EU remain high—about 85% of total capacity, significantly exceeding historical averages for December and ensuring supply reliability even with increased gas withdrawals due to winter. Exchange prices for gas have been kept at relatively moderate levels: January futures at the TTF hub in Europe trade around $350 per thousand cubic meters (approximately $35 per MWh), which is several times lower than peak crisis values of two years ago. Several factors contribute to this trend: firstly, relatively mild weather forecasts for the second half of December have lowered heating demand expectations. Secondly, active diversification of supplies is proving effective—Europe continues to receive stable volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S., Qatar, and other countries, compensating for the decrease in pipeline imports from Russia. Furthermore, the EU has politically committed to permanently abandon Russian gas by 2027, stimulating long-term contract agreements with alternative suppliers and the development of its own infrastructure (LNG terminals, interconnections).
The global gas market also reflects moderate dynamics. In the U.S., natural gas prices (Henry Hub) fell by about 20% in the first half of December—below $5 per million British thermal units—due to abnormally warm weather and increased production. Northern Asia, traditionally the largest LNG consumer, is not experiencing shortages this winter: China and Japan have accumulated sufficient stocks, and spot prices in Asia remain relatively restrained. Thus, the gas sector is entering winter in a fairly robust state. Despite geopolitical tensions and long-term structural changes in supply, the short-term outlook is favorable: stocks are adequate, prices are stable, and the market can absorb demand spikes without significant disruptions. Of course, sudden cold anomalies or supply disruptions may temporarily spike prices, but currently, there are no indications of a new gas crisis.
Electricity Sector: Rising Demand and the Need for Network Modernization
The global electricity sector is undergoing significant structural changes amid rising demand and the energy transition. Electricity consumption in many countries is hitting record highs. In the U.S., historical maximums are expected in 2025—around 4.2 trillion kWh—driven by the growth of data centers (including for AI and cryptocurrencies) as well as ongoing electrification of transport and heating. Similar trends are noticeable in other regions: globally, electricity demand is increasing by about 2-3% annually, outpacing the growth rate of the world economy, reflecting the digitalization and transition from fossil fuels to electricity across various sectors.
The generation structure is shifting towards cleaner sources, but infrastructural challenges are becoming increasingly pronounced. In Europe, the share of renewables in electricity production approached 50% for the first time in Q3 2025; however, this required compensating for generation variability through traditional capacities. Periods of low wind or drought (impacting hydroelectricity) forced some countries to temporarily increase output at gas and even coal power plants to meet demand. Electricity transmission networks are experiencing heightened stress due to the redistribution of energy flows between regions: for example, excess solar generation in the south needs to flow to consumers in the north, and so on. The European Union plans extensive upgrades and expansions of its electricity grid infrastructure, as well as reforms to market rules—particularly simplifying the permitting process for renewable energy generation and storage, to alleviate "bottlenecks," otherwise by 2040 up to 300 TWh of renewable energy could remain unused due to network limitations.
Energy experts identify several priority directions to ensure the reliability of energy systems during the energy transition:
- Modernization and expansion of electricity grids for efficient energy transmission between regions and integration of renewable sources.
- Widespread implementation of energy storage systems (industrial batteries), allowing for peak load smoothing and firming of renewable energy output.
- Maintaining sufficient backup capacities (gas, hydro, and nuclear power plants) in case of abnormal demand peaks or disruptions in renewable energy generation.
The realization of these measures requires significant investment but is critically important to maintaining supply reliability. Ultimately, the electricity sector enters 2026 with record demand and an increasing share of "green" generation, yet a successful transition to a low-carbon system will depend on the infrastructure's ability to adapt to new realities.
Renewable Energy Sources (RES): New Records and Global Growth
Renewable energy continues to set records and increase its share in the global energy balance. The year 2025 marked a historic event: the total electricity generation from RES (including wind, solar, hydro, and others) for the first time exceeded generation from coal globally. The rapid growth of solar and wind generation has allowed meeting the increase in electricity demand—solar power plants alone provided over 300 TWh of additional energy in the first half of the year, comparable to the annual consumption of a medium-sized country. Concurrently, global output from coal-fired power plants slightly decreased, reducing coal's share in electricity generation to about 33%, while RES reached about 34%.
Among the recent achievements in the RES sector are:
- A record wind generation in the UK—on December 5, the capacity of wind farms reached 23.8 GW, covering over 60% of the country’s electricity needs that day.
- China continues to lead in the deployment of clean energy: the total installed capacity of RES in China reached about 1889 GW (around 56% of all capacities), with over half of new cars sold in the country now being electric. This has helped keep CO2 emissions at a plateau for the past year and a half.
- Renewable energy dominates the structure of new capacity additions. By the end of 2025, over 90% of all new power plants worldwide were solar, wind, and other RES projects, while the share of gas and coal in new construction is minimal.
- Investments in "green" energy are hitting records even in developing countries: for instance, in the Philippines, RES projects worth nearly 480 billion pesos were approved in 2025, while several countries in the Middle East and Latin America launched large-scale programs to support solar and wind generation.
Despite these impressive successes, the RES sector also faces challenges. Regulatory uncertainty and grid limitations in some regions cause portions of RES potential to remain untapped. Experts urge governments and businesses to accelerate efforts to integrate renewable sources: setting ambitious goals, streamlining bureaucratic processes for new projects, investing in smart grids, and energy storage. Nevertheless, the overall trend is clear—renewable energy is becoming the main driver of generation growth worldwide, gradually displacing hydrocarbon sources and bringing the global energy system closer to a more environmentally friendly and sustainable model.
Coal: Decline in Demand and Price Drops Amid Energy Transition
The coal sector in 2025 is under pressure from the energy transition and competition from cleaner sources. Global coal demand has stabilized and begun to gradually decline in some key economies. In China and India—countries traditionally consuming a lion's share of coal—electricity generation growth this year has largely been supported by additions of new RES, allowing coal consumption to remain stable or even decrease in relative terms. Consequently, the share of coal generation in the world has declined by more than 1 percentage point compared to last year.
Global prices for thermal coal also reflect the weakening demand. By the end of the year, prices for Australian thermal coal dropped below $110 per ton, nearing minimal values for recent months. Since the beginning of 2025, coal prices have decreased by about 15–20%, aided by high stock levels, the recovery of production after disruptions, and a relatively mild winter in major consuming regions. European coal price indices saw slight strengthening in the fall amid decreased nuclear power generation and low RES output during certain weeks, but overall the trend remains downward.
The structural reduction in the role of coal in the energy systems of developed countries continues. Many nations are accelerating plans to phase out coal: in Europe, the last projects to decommission coal plants are set to finish by the end of the decade, in Australia, one of the largest power stations in Queensland has been announced for early closure six years ahead of schedule, and in the U.S., the share of coal in generation has fallen to 16% and is expected to continue declining as new RES and gas capacities come online. Nevertheless, coal still plays an important role in the global energy landscape—approximately one-third of electricity generation is still provided by coal-fired power plants, and for some developing countries, coal remains a cheap and accessible fuel for industry. In the next couple of years, coal demand may fluctuate depending on market conditions—gas prices, weather conditions, and economic activity. However, the long-term outlook indicates a gradual decline of the coal era: investments are shifting towards clean energy, financial markets are factoring in accelerated divestment from fossil fuels, and the coal sector is increasingly being relegated to the periphery of the global FEC.
Petrochemical Products: Stabilization of Fuel Prices After Autumn Shortages
The petroleum products market at the close of 2025 is showing signs of stabilization following the turbulence witnessed in the fall. In October to early November, disruptions at several major refineries (planned maintenance and unplanned outages) led to local shortages of diesel fuel and kerosene in certain markets. Against this backdrop, global refining margins surged to levels comparable to the period immediately following the conflict's onset in 2022, with particularly high "crack spreads" for diesel fuel, given its increased demand during the heating season and in industry.
However, by mid-December, the situation has normalized. Many refineries have resumed full production, making up for lost output. Stocks of gasoline and distillates in the U.S. and Europe began to recover, which has lowered wholesale prices. Retail gasoline prices in the U.S. have decreased from summer peaks and are now around 5–10% lower than a year ago, thanks to falling oil prices and stabilized demand. In Europe, diesel fuel costs have also retreated from recent highs, alleviating inflationary pressure on the transport sector. In Asia, where there was excess demand for jet fuel during the year due to the recovery of air travel, jet fuel imports increased as winter approached, saturating the market and halting price growth.
It is worth noting that changes in global petroleum product trading continue to be influenced by geopolitics. EU countries have declined imports of Russian petroleum products since February 2023, redirecting purchases towards the Middle East, Asia, and the U.S. Meanwhile, Russia has redirected some diesel and gasoline exports to Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. This shift requires time for market recalibrations, but generally, the global fuel supply system has adapted: there are no fuel shortages, although logistics have become longer. In the outlook for early 2026, new changes may occur—if the European Commission implements intentions to completely ban imports of Russian oil, this would indirectly affect the petroleum products market, forcing EU refineries to operate solely on alternative crude. Nonetheless, at the moment, the petroleum products market is entering winter relatively calmly: the supply of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is sufficient to meet demand, and prices fluctuate within a familiar seasonal range without signs of new price shocks.
Oil Refining (Refineries): Industry Modernization and Transition to Clean Fuels
Refineries worldwide are undergoing a transformation period, attempting to adapt to changing demand and environmental requirements. A clear trend is observable in Europe: refineries are shifting towards producing cleaner types of fuel. Under pressure from tightened EU emission norms and competing with new high-tech refineries in the Middle East and Asia, European refiners are investing billions of euros in modernization. The key goal is to increase the production of eco-friendly products, such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), biodiesel, renewable propane, and other biofuels, which are increasingly in demand in the transport sector.
Another development direction is deep processing and integration with petrochemicals. Major oil companies are striving to increase margins by processing crude oil not only into fuel but also into petrochemical products (plastics, fertilizers, etc.). Many modern refineries are effectively becoming integrated complexes capable of flexibly adjusting product output based on market conditions—for example, increasing jet fuel or fuel oil production if demand rises or processing part of the feedstock into naphtha for petrochemicals.
Key trends in the transformation of oil refining include:
- Decarbonization of processes: implementing carbon capture technologies, transitioning to hydrogen fuel and renewable energy sources for the energy supply of the refineries themselves to reduce manufacturing carbon footprints.
- Optimization of capacities: closing outdated and less efficient refineries in regions with excess capacities (for instance, in Europe) and launching new modernized plants closer to centers of growing demand—in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
- Flexibility of the feedstock base: the ability to process various types of feedstock—from traditional crude oil of different grades to biofeedstock (vegetable oils, waste) and synthetic crude. This allows refineries to operate amidst supply changes caused by sanctions or market conditions.
The global volume of oil refining in 2025 is on the rise following the recovery in fuel consumption. According to industry forecasts, by 2026, the total capacity utilization of refineries worldwide could reach approximately 84 million barrels per day, surpassing levels of 2024–2025. A significant portion of new capacity additions is concentrated in the Middle East (for example, expansions of major Saudi and Kuwaiti complexes) and Asia (new refineries in China and India), where domestic demand for fuel and petrochemicals is growing. At the same time, regional restructuring continues: North America and Europe are consolidating the industry, focusing on efficiency and ecology, while modern "full-cycle" plants are being built in developing economies.
Sanction and geopolitical factors have also impacted oil refining. Russian refineries, facing embargoes on exporting certain products and periodic restrictions, have redirected distribution towards the domestic market and friendly countries, while the Russian government introduced temporary export bans and quotas for gasoline and diesel in the fall of 2025 to stabilize domestic prices. These measures led to saturating the domestic market and subsequently reducing gasoline prices at filling stations in Russia by December. In the long term, international experts predict that global oil refining will increasingly move towards oil-consuming regions and areas with increasing demand for petroleum products, while also adapting to the "green" turn—from producing alternative fuels to reducing emissions. The refining sector enters 2026 in a relatively favorable state—margins for most players remain positive due to the previous period of high prices. However, the continued success of the industry will depend on its ability to change: producing cleaner fuels, operating more efficiently, and fitting into a new energy reality where the share of oil is gradually decreasing.
