Global News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of January 31, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Oil Products, and Key Trends in the Global Fuel and Energy Complex for Investors and Market Participants.
The end of January 2026 is characterized for the global fuel and energy complex by the continuation of geopolitical tensions and a significant restructuring of global energy resource flows. Western countries maintain stringent sanctions against Russia—the European Union has introduced new restrictions on energy trade. At the same time, the heightened situation surrounding Iran in the Middle East has raised concerns about potential oil supply disruptions, leading to a sharp rise in prices.
The global oil market has seen a noticeable spike in prices after several months of relative stability. The benchmark Brent blend has exceeded $70 per barrel for the first time since July, while WTI has approached $65, reaching six-month highs amid increased risks. The European gas market is adapting to winter under new conditions, effectively without Russian gas, and is currently stable: high stock levels in storage facilities and diversification of supply sources have helped avoid shortages. However, by the end of January, gas reserves in EU underground storage (UGS) have decreased to approximately 44% of total capacity—the lowest level for this date since 2022—and could fall below 30% by spring, presenting a significant challenge for replenishment.
The energy transition is gaining momentum: in 2025, a record amount of renewable energy capacity was added globally, although the reliable operation of energy systems still requires dependence on traditional resources. For instance, a recent anomalous cold snap in the U.S. forced energy producers to sharply increase coal-fired generation to meet peak demand. In Asia, the demand for coal and hydrocarbon raw materials remains high, supporting commodity markets despite climate concerns. In Russia, following a spike in fuel prices last autumn, authorities extended emergency measures to limit the export of oil products to maintain stability in the domestic fuel market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and commodity sectors at the end of January 2026.
Oil Market: Prices Rise Amid Middle Eastern Risks
Global oil prices have significantly risen by the end of January. Brent prices remain above $70 per barrel (hovering around $71), while WTI trades around $65—these are the highest levels since mid-2025. This increase came after a period of relative stability in the latter half of 2025 when excess supply and moderate demand held prices around $60. The primary driver of the current rally has been geopolitics: the intensification of the conflict surrounding Iran and threats to maritime navigation through the Strait of Hormuz—a key artery for global oil trade—have led to a risk premium built into prices.
Nevertheless, fundamental factors in the oil market still indicate significant supply availability. OPEC+ countries increased production in the second half of 2025, seeking to regain lost market share, resulting in a surplus of about 2 million barrels per day. Additional volumes are also coming from outside the cartel: the U.S. has partially lifted restrictions on Venezuelan production, allowing its oil to return to the market, while production in America is close to record levels. Global demand for oil has slowed amid weakening world economic conditions (particularly a decline in growth rates in China) and energy-saving effects following the price shocks of previous years. Some analysts forecast that in the absence of new shocks, the average price of Brent in 2026 may hold around $60–62 per barrel due to the ongoing oversupply. In the short term, however, price dynamics will depend on developments in the geopolitical situation. Potential escalation of conflict in the Middle East could push prices higher, while progress in negotiations (e.g., on Iranian or Ukrainian issues) could ease market tension. Additionally, financial factors come into play: expectations for a shift in the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy weaken the dollar, which temporarily supports commodities, including oil. Thus, oil is trading in an elevated range due to geopolitical risks, but underlying supply abundance may restrain further price increases.
Gas Market: Winter Stability and Challenges for Stock Replenishment
The European natural gas market enters the final phase of winter relatively calmly, thanks to reserves created and new supply routes established. By the start of the heating season, EU countries filled their underground gas storage (UGS) facilities to over 90%, providing a buffer for the cold months. As of the end of January, stock levels have decreased to approximately 44% of total capacity, the lowest figure for this time of year since 2022. However, gas exchange prices remain comparatively moderate and significantly lower than the peaks seen last winter. This is facilitated by several factors: mild weather for most of the season, record purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the global market, and stable pipeline supplies from Norway, North Africa, and Azerbaijan. Thanks to the diversification of supply sources, Europe is currently managing to meet current demand, compensating for the absence of Russian gas.
However, serious challenges lie ahead for the EU gas sector. If the current trend continues, by March, stock levels may fall to ~30%, requiring European companies to inject approximately 60 billion cubic meters of gas to return to last year's filling levels. Meeting such replenishment volumes without traditional Russian supplies is a daunting task. Ahead of the next heating season, the EU is actively enhancing its infrastructure for receiving LNG (new regasification terminals are being constructed) and securing long-term contracts with alternative suppliers. Additionally, in January, the strategic decision was confirmed for the EU to completely cease imports of Russian gas (both pipeline and LNG) by 2027, thereby ending decades of dependence. The volumes required to offset the shortfall are primarily planned to be substituted by the global LNG market: the International Energy Agency anticipates that global LNG supplies will reach a new record in 2026 (approximately 185 billion cubic meters) due to the launch of export projects in the U.S., Canada, and Qatar. Meanwhile, the price situation raises concerns: at the TTF gas hub, an abnormal backwardation price structure (summer futures being more expensive than winter ones) is seen, which reduces incentives for injecting gas into storage facilities. Experts warn that without specific support measures, such market conditions could complicate preparations for the next winter. Overall, the European gas market is now significantly more resilient than during the 2022 crisis; however, maintaining this resilience will require further diversification of supplies, development of storage systems, and possibly coordinated government actions to stimulate necessary stock levels.
International Politics: Sanctions and Energy
The sanctions confrontation between Moscow and the West continues to shape the landscape of global energy. At the end of 2025, the EU approved its 19th package of restrictive measures, a significant part of which targets the fuel and energy sector—from tightening the price cap on Russian oil to bans on the export of equipment and services for extraction. The United States and its allies also signal their readiness to intensify pressure: new sanction measures are being discussed, including mechanisms for seizing frozen Russian assets to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. While individual channels of dialogue between governments remain, there are currently no real signals of easing sanctions. For the markets, this means the continued division of energy flows into “permitted” and “alternative” categories. Russian oil and gas continue to be redirected to Asia at discounts—to countries such as China, India, and Turkey—while European consumers have completely pivoted to alternative sources. Two parallel pricing zones have effectively formed: a western zone where there is a complete rejection of Russian energy resources and an alternative zone where Russian barrels and cubic meters find demand, but at a depressed price and with elongated logistics. Investors and market participants are closely monitoring the sanctions policy since any changes directly impact supply routes and pricing dynamics.
Besides the Russia-Ukraine conflict, sanctions against other states also influence energy dynamics. In January, the U.S. and EU expanded their sanction lists against Iran amid ongoing repression of protesters and disputes over the nuclear program, complicating the trade of Iranian oil and adding market uncertainty. Simultaneously, the sanctions regime against Venezuela is gradually being recalibrated: following the easing of U.S. restrictions in autumn 2023, Venezuela's oil sector has begun to ramp up production, and major companies (ExxonMobil, Chevron, etc.) are exploring new projects in the country. This brings back a portion of previously lost heavy crude oil volumes to the global market. Geopolitical barriers also affect corporate transactions: for instance, the American investment fund Carlyle Group has agreed to acquire most of the foreign assets of Lukoil, which the second-largest oil company in Russia was compelled to sell due to sanctions. This example illustrates how international players are restructuring their strategies and assets under the pressure of sanctions. Overall, the energy sector remains a focal point of global politics: sanctions, conflicts, and diplomatic decisions directly determine global oil and gas flows, amplifying the role of political risks in the investment decisions of fuel and energy companies.
Energy Transition: Records and Balance
The global transition to clean energy in 2025 has been marked by unprecedented growth in renewable generation. Many countries have introduced record new capacities for solar and wind power plants:
- EU: approximately 85–90 GW of renewable energy sources were added in the year;
- U.S.: the share of renewable electricity exceeded 30% in the overall energy balance for the first time;
- China: dozens of gigawatts of new "green" plants were established, breaking national records for the commissioning of RE projects.
The rapid growth of the RE sector raises concerns about the reliability of energy systems. During periods of calm or lack of sunlight, backup capacities from traditional power plants are still necessary to meet peak demand and prevent disruptions in energy supply. For instance, during a severe cold snap in the U.S. in January 2026, grid operators had to increase coal-fired generation by over 30% to satisfy the sharp rise in electricity consumption—this highlighted the importance of having sufficient capacity reserves in extreme conditions. It is for this reason that energy storage projects are being actively implemented worldwide: large battery farms for electricity storage are being constructed, and technologies for storing energy in the form of hydrogen and other fuels are being researched. The development of storage systems will help smooth out fluctuations in renewable energy generation and enhance the resilience of energy systems as the share of renewable energy grows.
Energy companies, meanwhile, are seeking a balance between environmental goals and maintaining profitability. The experience of BP, which in 2025 announced a reduction in investments in renewable energy and the write-down of several billion dollars in “green” assets, showed that even industry giants must adjust their strategies. Despite the booming growth in the clean sector, traditional oil and gas businesses still generate the bulk of profits, and shareholders demand a cautious approach. “Green” projects must be developed without compromising financial stability. The energy transition continues at a rapid pace, but the main lesson of 2025 is the need for a more balanced strategy that combines the expedited implementation of renewable energy with maintaining the reliability of energy systems and the profitability of investments in the sector.
Coal: High Demand in Asia
The global coal market in 2025 continued to thrive, despite global goals to reduce coal usage. The main reason is the persistently high demand in Asia. Countries like China and India continue to burn vast amounts of coal for electricity generation and industrial needs, compensating for the decline in consumption in Western economies. China currently accounts for nearly half of global coal consumption, and even though it produces over 4 billion tons a year, it must increase imports during peak demand periods. India is also ramping up its own production but, due to rapid economic growth, is forced to purchase significant volumes of fuel abroad—mainly from Indonesia, Australia, and Russia.
Strong Asian demand supports coal prices at relatively high levels. Major exporters—from Indonesia and Australia to South Africa—boosted revenues in 2025 thanks to steady orders from China, India, and other regional markets. In Europe, on the other hand, following a temporary surge in coal usage in 2022–2023, its share is declining again due to the rapid development of renewable energy and the return of several nuclear power plants to operation. Overall, despite the climate agenda, coal is likely to retain a significant part of the global energy balance in the coming years, although investments in new coal capacities are gradually decreasing. Governments and companies aim to strike a balance: meeting current coal demand, especially in developing countries, while simultaneously accelerating the transition to cleaner energy sources.
The Russian Market: Restrictions and Stabilization
Since autumn 2025, the Russian government has been manually intervening in the regulation of the fuel market, restraining price growth domestically. After wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel reached record levels in August, authorities imposed a temporary ban on the export of key oil products, which has since been extended until February 28, 2026. The restrictions cover the export of gasoline, diesel fuel, fuel oil, and gasoil. These measures have already had a tangible effect: by winter, wholesale prices for motor fuel within the country have decreased by tens of percent from peak levels. The rise in retail prices has significantly slowed, and by the end of the year, the situation at gas stations has stabilized—fuel stations are supplied with fuel, and the panic demand from consumers has subsided.
For oil companies and refineries (refining plants), such restrictions mean lost profits in external markets; however, authorities are demanding that businesses "tighten their belts" for the sake of price stability within the country. The extraction cost for oil at most Russian fields remains low, so even the price of Russian export oil below $40 per barrel does not lead to direct losses and allows for maintaining profitability. However, the reduction in export revenues threatens the implementation of new projects that require higher global prices and access to foreign sales markets for profitability. The government refrains from direct subsidization of the sector, stating that the situation is under control and that fuel and energy companies are still generating profits even with decreased exports. The domestic fuel and energy sector is adapting to new conditions. The main task for 2026 is to maintain a balance between restraining domestic energy prices and supporting export revenues, which are critically important for the budget and sector development.
