Global News from the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Saturday, January 24, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Sanctions, Global Energy Markets, and Key Trends for Investors and Energy Companies.
The current events in the fuel and energy complex on January 24, 2026, attract attention from investors and market participants due to their scale and contradictory trends. Geopolitical tensions remain high: the USA and EU are increasing sanctions pressure in the energy sector, leading to a further redistribution of global oil and gas flows. At the same time, mixed signals are observed on the global energy markets. Oil prices stabilized at moderate levels after a decline in 2025—the North Sea Brent is holding around $63–65 per barrel, and American WTI is in the range of $59–61. This is significantly lower than the levels a year ago (about $15–20 cheaper than in January 2025), reflecting a fragile balance between supply surplus and restrained demand. Meanwhile, the European gas market is facing harsh winter cold, resulting in a rapid drawdown of fuel from underground storage facilities, which has decreased reserves below 50% capacity and caused a price spike of approximately 30% since the start of the month. However, the situation is far from the energy crisis of 2022—the accumulated reserves and LNG inflows allow for meeting the heightened demand, keeping price increases in check. The global energy transition is meanwhile gaining momentum: many regions are setting new records for electricity generation from renewable sources, although countries are still relying on traditional resources to ensure the reliability of their energy systems. In Russia, following last year's price surge in fuels, authorities have extended emergency measures—including export restrictions and subsidies—into early 2026 to stabilize the domestic fuel market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: OPEC+ Restrains Production Amid Surplus Risks
Global oil prices are maintaining relative stability at relatively low levels, influenced by fundamental supply and demand factors. Currently, Brent is trading around $63–65 per barrel, while WTI is within $59–61. Current prices are 15–20% lower than a year ago, reflecting market oversupply after the peaks of 2022-2023 and moderate demand. Several key factors simultaneously affect the dynamics of oil prices:
- OPEC+ Policy: Fearing potential oversupply, the alliance of leading exporters adopts a cautious strategy. In early January 2026, OPEC+ participants confirmed the continuation of existing production limits at least until the end of Q1. Major countries (including Saudi Arabia and Russia) have extended voluntary cuts, aiming to prevent market oversaturation amidst seasonally low demand. This move indicates a commitment to maintaining price stability and marks a turnaround from the production increases seen in the previous year.
- Weak Demand Growth: Global oil consumption growth remains modest. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand is expected to rise by only ~0.9 million barrels/day in 2026 (compared to ~2.5 million barrels/day in 2023). OPEC forecasts a growth rate of about +1.1 million barrels/day. These moderate expectations are tied to a slowdown in the global economy and the impact of high prices from previous years, which have encouraged energy conservation. Structural factors also play a role—for instance, slower industrial growth in China and saturation of post-pandemic demand.
- Stock Build-up and Non-OPEC Supplies: In 2025, global oil stocks significantly increased—analysts report commercial inventories of crude and petroleum products growing by an average of 1–1.5 million barrels a day. This was a result of active production increases outside OPEC, primarily in the U.S. and Brazil. The American oil industry reached record production levels (around 13 million barrels/day), while Brazil increased supplies from new offshore fields. An oversupply created a "buffer" in the form of high inventories, which exert downward pressure on prices despite occasional disruptions (such as temporary export cuts from Kazakhstan or local conflicts in the Middle East).
The cumulative impact of these factors keeps the oil market close to a surplus situation. Brent and WTI prices fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking momentum for either significant growth or steep declines. Several investment banks predict that if current trends persist, the average Brent price in 2026 could drop to around $50. Nevertheless, market participants continue to monitor geopolitical events—sanctions and situations in various oil-producing countries—that could potentially shift the supply and demand balance.
Gas Market: Europe Faces Cold Spells, Prices Rise
The gas market is currently focused on Europe, where countries are facing a serious winter challenge at the beginning of the year. By the start of the heating season, European nations had high supplies: underground gas storage (UGS) facilities were nearly 100% full as of December 2025. However, prolonged frosts in January 2026 led to rapid consumption of these reserves—by the end of the month, the overall UGS fill level in the EU dropped below 50%. Such a swift gas draw has not been seen for several years, and the market responded with rising prices. Futures at the TTF hub surged to ~€40/MWh (around $500 per 1,000 m³), compared to approximately €30/MWh in December.
Despite this noticeable spike, current gas prices remain vastly lower than the peaks of the 2022 crisis, when prices exceeded €300/MWh. The European market is relatively resilient to demand shocks due to measures taken and external supplies. A significant volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) continues to arrive in Europe, compensating for decreased withdrawals from storage during the cold spells. At the same time, gas demand has increased in other regions, including North America and Asia, where unusual cold temperatures are also observed. This has led to a global rally in gas prices: in the U.S., prices at Henry Hub have reached their highest since 2022, while the Asian spot index JKM has risen to levels seen at the end of last year. Nevertheless, thanks to established logistics and diversified sources, Europe is currently avoiding gas deficits: even with declining reserves, supplies continue from various countries (Norway, North Africa, Qatar, the USA, etc.), cushioning the impact of the cessation of pipeline gas imports from Russia.
Experts note that after an extremely cold January, European storage facilities may end the winter at significantly lower levels than last year. This will create a new challenge for refilling them ahead of the next heating season, potentially supporting prices. Meanwhile, the launch of several new LNG projects worldwide in 2026-2027 should increase supply and alleviate market pressures in the medium term. In the coming weeks, the situation in the gas market will depend on the weather: if February proves milder, price growth is likely to slow, and the remaining reserves should be sufficient. Thus, even amidst current winter stress, the European gas industry demonstrates adaptability, navigating seasonal demand peaks without panic, albeit at somewhat elevated prices.
International Politics: Sanctions Pressure and Export Reorientation
Geopolitical factors continue to exert significant influence on energy markets. At the start of 2026, the West is not easing the sanctions pressure on the Russian oil and gas industry—instead, new restrictive measures are being introduced. The European Union agreed in December 2025 to a plan for a complete and permanent cessation of imports of Russian energy resources: specifically, pipeline gas purchases from Russia should be reduced to zero by the end of 2026, with a phased elimination of dependence on Russian LNG also planned. In addition, the EU has imposed a ban on importing petroleum products made from Russian oil at foreign refineries—this measure aims to close loopholes through which Russian oil was indirectly entering the European market in the form of gasoline or diesel processed in third countries.
The United States, for its part, is hardening its rhetoric and is prepared for new actions. The U.S. administration is considering additional sanctions against a number of countries and companies that help Moscow circumvent existing restrictions. Washington openly warns large purchasing countries (such as China and India) against increasing imports of Russian oil. Legislative initiatives are moving through Congress to impose high tariffs on goods from countries that actively trade in energy resources with Russia. Although these proposals are still under discussion, the fact of intensifying pressure increases uncertainty in global oil and gas trade.
In response, Russia continues to redirect its export flows towards friendly markets. Oil and LNG supplies to Asia remain high: China, India, Turkey, and several other countries continue to be the largest buyers of Russian hydrocarbons, benefiting from discounted prices. Alternative currencies (yuan, rupee) and payment schemes that reduce dependence on the dollar and euro are being utilized more frequently. Concurrently, the Russian government has announced plans to develop its own tanker fleet and insurance mechanisms to minimize the impact of Western sanctions on oil export logistics. A partial normalization of relations with Venezuela and Iran has also been a significant event: these oil-producing countries are coordinating their market positions to jointly counter U.S. sanctions pressure.
Thus, an ongoing confrontation on the international stage affects the energy sector. Sanctions and countermeasures are reshaping the configurations of oil and gas flows: the share of supplies to the West is declining while the Asia-Pacific region becomes increasingly significant. Investors are assessing risks: on one hand, further escalation of sanctions could lead to disruptions and price fluctuations; on the other hand, any hints of dialogue or compromise (such as extensions of export deals through intermediaries or humanitarian exceptions) could improve market sentiment. For now, the baseline scenario is a continuation of the West's hardline stance and exporters' adaptation to new realities, which is already reflected in prices and forecasts.
Asia: India and China Balance Between Importing and Domestic Production
- India: New Delhi is striving to strengthen its energy security and reduce dependence on hydrocarbon imports while simultaneously maneuvering under external pressures. Since the onset of the Ukrainian crisis, India has sharply increased purchases of affordable Russian oil, ensuring the domestic market has access to inexpensive raw materials. However, in 2025, faced with the threat of Western sanctions and tariffs, the Indian government somewhat reduced Russia's share in oil imports, increasing supplies from the Middle East and other regions. At the same time, India is betting on developing its own resources: in August 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a National Deep-Sea Oil and Gas Exploration Program. As part of this initiative, the state-owned ONGC is already drilling ultra-deep wells on the shelf, hoping to discover new reserves. Concurrently, the country is rapidly developing renewable energy (solar and wind power plants) and LNG infrastructure to diversify its energy mix. However, oil and gas remain the foundation of India's fuel and energy balance, essential for industrial and transportation operations. India must delicately balance between the benefits of importing cheap fuel and the risks of Western sanctions.
- China: As the largest economy in Asia, China continues its course towards enhancing energy self-sufficiency, combining traditional resource extraction with record investments in clean energy. In 2025, China achieved historical highs in its internal oil and coal production, aiming to meet surging demand while reducing import dependency. Simultaneously, coal's share in electricity generation in China has fallen to a multi-year low (around 55%), as vast new capacities in solar, wind, and hydroelectric power are introduced. Analysts estimate that during the first half of 2025, China added more renewable energy-generating capacities than the rest of the world combined. This has even allowed for a reduction in absolute fossil fuel consumption within the country. Nevertheless, in absolute terms, China's appetite for energy resources remains enormous: oil and gas imports were still key sources to meet demand, especially in transportation, industry, and chemicals. Beijing continues to actively secure long-term contracts for LNG supplies and is developing nuclear energy, viewing it as an essential element of its energy balance. It is anticipated that in the new 15th Five-Year Development Plan (2026-2030), China will set even more ambitious targets for increasing the share of carbon-free energy. Meanwhile, the authorities clearly intend to maintain sufficient reserve capacities at traditional thermal power plants—Chinese leadership will not allow energy deficits, given past experiences with power outages in the last decade. As a result, China is moving along two parallel paths: on one hand, it is rapidly adopting clean technologies of the future; on the other, it maintains a robust foundation of oil, gas, and coal to ensure the stability of its energy system today.
Energy Transition: Growth of Renewable Energy and Balance with Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy continues to accelerate, confirming its irreversibility. In 2025, new records were achieved globally for electricity generation from renewable sources (RES). Preliminary estimates from industry analysts indicate that combined production from solar and wind exceeded electricity generation from all coal-fired power plants worldwide for the first time. This historic milestone was made possible by an explosive growth of RES capacities: in 2025, global solar generation increased by about 30% compared to the previous year, while wind generation rose nearly 10%. The new "green" kilowatt-hours were able to meet most of the growth in global electricity demand, allowing for a reduction in fossil fuel combustion in several regions.
However, the rapid development of renewable energy is accompanied by challenges. The main one is ensuring the reliability of energy systems with variable sources. During periods when demand growth outstrips RES capacity additions or when weather conditions diminish production (calm periods, droughts, extreme frosts), countries must resort to traditional generation to balance their grids. For example, in 2025, an economic revival in the U.S. temporarily resulted in increased electricity generation in coal-fired plants, as available RES capacity was insufficient to cover all additional demand. In Europe, weak winds and reduced hydro resources in the summer and autumn of 2025 compelled a temporary increase in coal and gas combustion to maintain energy supply. During the winter of 2026, severe cold in both North America and Eurasia caused a spike in electricity consumption for heating—traditional gas and coal plants had to urgently ramp up generation to compensate for falling output from RES. These instances underscore that while the share of solar and wind is unstable, coal, gas, and sometimes nuclear power plants serve as insurance, covering peak loads and preventing outages.
Energy companies and governments worldwide are actively investing in solutions to smooth out the variability of "green" generation. Industrial energy storage systems (powerful batteries, pumped storage plants) are being constructed, electricity grids are being modernized, and intelligent demand management systems are being implemented. All these efforts enhance flexibility and resilience in energy systems. Nevertheless, for the next several years, the global energy balance is set to remain hybrid. The rapid growth of RES is accompanied by a sustained significant role of oil, gas, coal, and nuclear energy, which provide basic stability. Experts predict that only by the end of this decade will the share of fossil resources in generation begin to confidently decline as enormous new RES capacities are deployed and climate initiatives are implemented. For now, traditional and renewable sources operate in tandem, providing both progress in decarbonization and uninterrupted energy supply for the economy.
Coal: Steady Demand Despite Climate Goals
The global coal market demonstrates how persistent the consumption of energy resources can be. Despite active efforts toward decarbonization, coal usage remains at record high levels worldwide. Preliminary data indicate that in 2025, global coal demand increased by about 0.5%, reaching around 8.85 billion tons—an all-time high. Most of this growth occurred in Asian countries. In China, which consumes over half of the world's coal, electricity generation from coal-fired plants, although reduced in relative terms due to the record introduction of RES, remains substantial in absolute volume. Moreover, fearing energy deficits, Beijing approved the construction of several new coal-fired power plants in 2025, aiming to establish reserve capacity. India and Southeast Asian nations also continue to actively burn coal to meet rising energy demands, as in many cases alternative generation failed to keep pace with economic growth.
Following sharp price fluctuations in 2022, the coal market in 2025 transitioned to relative stability. Prices for thermal coal at major Asian hubs (e.g., Australian Newcastle) have remained significantly below peak levels seen during the crisis, although still somewhat higher than pre-crisis levels. This pricing dynamic has encouraged leading producing countries to maintain high levels of coal production and export. Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—these top exporters have increased supply in recent years, helping to satisfy high demand and avert market deficits. International experts believe that global coal consumption will plateau by the end of this decade and then begin to decline—as climate policies strengthen and coal generation is replaced by renewables. However, in the short term, coal continues to be a key part of the energy balance for many countries. It provides base load electricity generation and heating for industry, meaning that until a viable alternative emerges, coal-fired plants will continue to play an indispensable role in sustaining the economy.
Russian Fuel Market: Continuation of Measures to Stabilize Prices
By the beginning of 2026, relative stabilization in Russia's domestic fuel sector has been achieved through unprecedented government measures. In August–September 2025, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel in the country set historical records, exceeding levels of the crisis period in 2023. This was due to a combination of high summer demand (peak transportation and harvesting season) and a contraction in fuel supply—factors included unscheduled repairs and outages at several large oil refineries, partly due to drone attacks, which curtailed gasoline production. Faced with the threat of deficits and price shocks for consumers, authorities promptly intervened in market mechanisms, launching an emergency plan to normalize the situation:
- Export Ban: In mid-August 2025, the Russian government imposed a complete ban on the export of automotive gasoline and diesel fuel, applying it to all producers—from independent mini-refineries to the largest oil companies. This measure, which has been extended several times (most recently until the end of February 2026), returned hundreds of thousands of tons of fuel to the domestic market, previously sent abroad monthly.
- Partial Resumption of Supplies: Starting in October 2025, as the domestic market became saturated, strict restrictions began to be gradually eased. Major oil refineries were allowed to resume some export shipments under strict government supervision, while export barriers largely remained for smaller traders and intermediaries. Thus, the export channel was opened gradually to prevent a new spike in domestic prices. In fact, at the start of 2026, the export of petroleum products from Russia remains partially restricted—authorities deliberately withhold fuel volumes in the domestic market to ensure saturation.
- Fuel Distribution Control: One of the measures taken was to enhance control over the movement of petroleum products within the country. Producers were mandated to prioritize meeting the domestic market's needs and prohibited from engaging in mutual exchange purchases between companies (previously such transactions contributed to rising market prices). The government, together with relevant agencies (Ministry of Energy, Federal Antimonopoly Service), developed mechanisms for direct contracts between refineries and gas stations, bypassing market intermediaries. This is intended to provide a more direct and fair route for fuel to reach retail gas stations and avoid speculative price increases.
- Subsidization and Price Stabilization Mechanism: Financial measures are being utilized to suppress prices. The government has increased budget subsidies for oil refining enterprises and expanded the application of the stabilization mechanism (reverse excise tax), compensating companies for lost income when redirecting products to the domestic market instead of exporting them. These payments incentivize oil companies to supply sufficient volumes of gasoline and diesel to Russian gas stations without fearing significant losses from missed export revenue.
A complex of these measures has already yielded tangible results by the beginning of 2026. Wholesale fuel prices have retreated from their peak values, and retail price growth at gas stations has been moderate—over the entire 2025 year, gasoline and diesel increased by an average of 5-6%, roughly in line with overall inflation. A domestic fuel deficit has been successfully avoided: gas stations across the country, including remote rural areas during the peak of the fall harvest, were supplied with fuel. The Russian government states that it will continue to monitor the situation closely. At the first signs of a new imbalance, fresh export restrictions may be swiftly imposed, or fuel interventions may take place using state reserves. For players in the energy sector, such a policy means relative predictability in domestic prices, although exporters of petroleum products must contend with partial restrictions. Overall, the stabilization of the domestic fuel market reinforces confidence that even amid external challenges—sanctions and volatility in global prices—domestic gasoline and diesel prices can be maintained within acceptable limits, protecting the interests of consumers and the economy.
