Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Saturday, December 20, 2025: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Oil Refining (Refineries), and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market.
As December draws to a close, significant changes are occurring in the global fuel and energy complex. Years of record-low energy prices, combined with geopolitical shifts, create an ambiguous environment that captures the attention of investors and market participants. On one hand, oil trades near its lowest levels in recent years amid expectations of supply surplus and positive signals regarding a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Eastern Europe. On the other hand, gas prices in Europe continue to decline despite the onset of winter due to a record influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the same time, global coal demand in 2025 has reached a record peak and is likely to start declining steadily as the energy transition accelerates.
Against this backdrop, governments and major companies in the industry are adapting their strategies. Some are making efforts to ease sanctions-related tensions and ensure stability in fuel supply, while others are increasing investments in both traditional oil and gas sectors and in green energy. Below is a detailed overview of key events and trends in the oil, gas, power, and commodity segments as of this date.
Oil Market
The global oil market continues to face pressure, with prices hovering near their lowest levels in recent years. The benchmark Brent crude trades close to $60 per barrel (sometimes dipping below the psychologically significant mark), while American WTI is around $55. These are the lowest levels seen since approximately 2020. Key factors influencing the decline in oil prices include:
- Expected Supply Surplus: Projections for 2026 indicate that global production may exceed demand. Non-OPEC countries (primarily the United States and Brazil) have ramped up oil production to record volumes. At the same time, the growth rate of global demand is slowing — industry estimates suggest that oil consumption increased by around +0.7 million barrels per day in 2025 (compared to more than +2 million bpd in 2023). This is leading to inventory buildups and increasing pressure on prices.
- Hope for a Ceasefire in Ukraine: Progress in negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv has raised expectations for a partial easing of sanctions and a return of some Russian oil exports to the market. The prospect of a peace agreement further bolsters forecasts for increased supply, which additionally pulls oil prices down.
- OPEC+ Policy: After several months of gradually increasing production quotas, the OPEC+ alliance has decided to pause further increases in Q1 2026. The cartel is demonstrating caution amid the risk of market oversupply and expresses a willingness to adjust production if necessary, although no official announcements regarding any extraordinary steps have been made yet.
Collectively, these factors have caused oil prices to be significantly lower now than at the beginning of the year. There is a strong likelihood that Brent and WTI will finish 2025 at minimal levels not seen since mid-2020. The decline in raw material prices has already had a noticeable impact on the petroleum products segment.
Oil Products Market and Refining
By the end of the year, prices for oil products have decreased following the drop in crude oil prices. Gasoline and diesel fuel prices have fallen in most regions of the world. In the United States, retail gasoline prices decreased practically in all states as the holiday season approached, easing the financial burden on consumers. European refiners, previously having shifted to alternative feedstock in place of Russian oil, have stable supply lines. Global refineries maintain a high level of processing, taking advantage of cheaper crude, although fuel demand remains moderate. Overall, refining margins remain stable, and there is no shortage of gasoline or diesel fuel in the global market.
In Russia, following a sharp rise in gasoline prices in early autumn, government measures (including temporary export restrictions) have cooled down the market. By December, wholesale and retail fuel prices within the country stabilized, reducing social tensions and risks for the domestic petroleum products market.
Gas Market and LNG
The gas market presents a paradoxical situation: despite an early and cold start to winter, natural gas prices in Europe continue to decline. Dutch TTF hub quotes have dropped below €30 per MWh — the lowest level since spring 2024, about 90% lower than the peak values during the 2022 crisis and 45% lower than prices at the beginning of this year. The main reason for this is the unprecedented influx of liquefied natural gas, compensating for the decrease in pipeline supplies from Russia. Gas storage facilities in the EU are filled to approximately 75%. Although this is below multi-year average levels for December, combined with record LNG imports, it is enough to maintain stable prices even in cold weather.
- Europe: Record LNG import volumes have allowed gas prices to decrease, despite rising consumption during the heating season. In 2025, more than half of European LNG imports were supplied by exporters from the US, redirecting tankers from Asian markets. As a result, the spread between high European prices and lower American prices has significantly narrowed.
- USA: In North America, on the contrary, gas futures have risen amid forecasts of anomalously cold weather. At the Henry Hub, prices rose above $5 per MMBtu due to the threat of a polar vortex and a spike in heating demand. However, domestic gas production in the US remains at record high levels, which curbs price increases as the weather normalizes.
- Asia: By the end of the year, the gas market in Asia appears relatively balanced. Demand in key countries in the region (China, South Korea, Japan) has been moderate, causing part of the additional LNG to be redirected to Europe. Prices at Asian hubs, such as JKM, have remained stable and avoided sharp spikes as competition for gas shipments between Europe and Asia has noticeably weakened compared to the situation in 2022.
Thus, the global gas market enters winter with much more confidence than a year ago. Existing supplies and flexible supply channels are sufficient to meet demand even during severe cold. The maneuverability of the LNG market plays a key role: tankers can be quickly redirected to the needed region, smoothing out local imbalances. If the temperature during this season does not exceed normal limits, the price situation for gas consumers will remain favorable.
Coal Sector
The traditional coal industry reached a historic peak in consumption in 2025; however, a slowdown is anticipated ahead. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal consumption increased by approximately 0.5% — reaching a record 8.85 billion tons. Coal remains the largest source of electricity generation in the world, but its share in the energy balance is expected to gradually decline: analysts predict that global coal demand will plateau followed by a decline by 2030 due to the expansion of renewable energy and nuclear generation. Nevertheless, regional dynamics differ:
- India: Coal consumption declined (only the third time in the past 50 years) due to an unusually strong monsoon season. Abundant rainfall increased generation at hydropower plants and reduced demand for electricity from coal-fired power plants.
- USA: In the United States, on the other hand, coal usage rose. This was facilitated by high natural gas prices in the first half of the year and political support for the coal industry. The new presidential administration in Washington has halted the closure of several coal-fired power plants, temporarily boosting demand for coal for electricity generation.
- China: The largest consumer of coal in the world has maintained its level of use at last year’s figures. China burns 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined. However, gradual reductions in consumption are expected by the end of the decade as colossal capacities of wind, solar, and nuclear energy come online.
Thus, 2025 is likely to mark the peak year for the global coal industry. Going forward, increasing competition from gas (where possible) and especially from renewable energy sources will displace coal from the energy balance of many countries. However, in the short term, coal remains in demand in developing Asian economies where energy consumption growth is still outpacing the construction of new clean capacities.
Electricity and Renewable Energy
The electricity sector continues to transform under the influence of climate agendas and fuel price fluctuations. In 2025, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in global electricity generation reached new heights: many countries have introduced record capacities of solar and wind power plants. For instance, China has significantly increased solar generation, while Europe and the US have commissioned new offshore wind farms and large-scale photovoltaic projects, spurred by government support and private investments. By the end of the year, global investments in green energy remain high, nearly matching fossil fuel investment levels.
The rapid growth of RES, however, poses challenges for ensuring the stability of energy systems. This winter in Europe, the variable weather factor has come to the forefront: periods of weak wind and short daylight hours have increased the load on traditional generation. At the beginning of the season, EU countries were forced to temporarily increase gas and coal output due to an anti-cyclone that caused a drop in wind power generation, leading to price spikes in electricity in certain regions. Nevertheless, due to the growth of RES capacities and a significant share of gas in the energy balance, serious energy supply issues have been avoided. Governments and energy companies are also actively investing in energy storage systems and grid modernization to smooth peak loads and integrate renewable energy.
Climate commitments from countries continue to shape the direction of the industry. At the recent global climate summit (COP30) in Brazil, calls were made to accelerate the energy transition. A number of countries agreed to triple the introduction of RES capacities by 2030 and significantly enhance energy efficiency. At the same time, interest in nuclear energy is reviving in many regions: new nuclear power plants are being built, and the lifespan of existing ones is being extended to ensure base generation without carbon emissions. Overall, the electricity sector is moving toward a cleaner and more sustainable future, although the transition period requires a delicate balance between reliability of supply and environmental objectives.
Geopolitics and Sanctions
Geopolitical factors continue to exert significant influence on global energy markets. The conflict in Eastern Europe and the related restrictions remain at the center of attention:
- Peace Talks: In December, notable progress in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine was observed, marking the most significant advancements since the conflict began. The US expressed its willingness to provide Kyiv with security guarantees similar to NATO, while European mediators noted a constructive course in dialogue. Hopes for a ceasefire have notably risen, despite Moscow stating it will not make territorial concessions. Growing optimism regarding a possible cessation of hostilities has already sparked discussions about the prospects of a partial lifting of oil and gas sanctions against Russia in the foreseeable future.
- Sanction Pressure: Meanwhile, Western countries indicate their readiness to intensify pressure if the peace process falters. Washington has prepared another package of restrictions against the Russian energy sector, which could be implemented if the negotiations collapse. Earlier in the autumn, the US and the UK expanded sanctions against oil giants "Rosneft" and "Lukoil," making it more difficult for them to attract investments and access technologies. In Europe, there is also an escalation of legal measures against Russian энергетической инфраструктуры: in early December, a court in the Netherlands, at the request of the Ukrainian side, seized assets of the operator of the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline, demonstrating a new level of sanction pressure on export routes.
- Infrastructure Risks: Hostilities and diversions continue to threaten energy facilities. The Ukrainian side has ramped up drone attacks on oil infrastructure deep within Russian territory. In particular, fires were reported at oil refineries in the Krasnodar region and along the Volga due to drone strikes. While these incidents only slightly reduce the overall supply of fuel, they underscore the persistent military risks for the sector until a durable peace is concluded.
- Venezuela: In Latin America, geopolitics also affects the oil market. Following the partial easing of the sanction regime against Venezuela in the fall, the US has intensified its oversight of compliance with the terms of the deal. In December, an incident occurred involving the detention of a tanker carrying Venezuelan oil due to suspected license violations. The state company PDVSA faced demands from buyers to increase discounts and revise supply terms. This complicated Caracas' efforts to boost exports, despite a recent US concession to temporarily increase production in exchange for political compromises from Venezuelan authorities.
Overall, the sanction standoff between Russia and the West, along with other international disputes, continues to introduce uncertainty into the global energy market. Investors are closely monitoring political events since any changes — from breakthroughs in peace dialogue to the imposition of new restrictions — can significantly impact prices for oil, gas, and other energy carriers.
Corporate News and Projects
Major energy companies and infrastructure projects around the world are concluding the year with a series of important decisions and events:
- Aramco Enters the Indian Market: Saudi Aramco has resumed plans to invest in a large refining complex in India. The company is close to acquiring a stake in the extensive West Coast Refinery project, aiming to establish a foothold in the rapidly growing Indian market and ensure long-term sales channels for its oil.
- New Project in Guyana: A consortium led by ExxonMobil has approved the development of another large offshore field in Guyana, aiming to commence production by 2028. Oil production in Guyana continues to grow rapidly, solidifying the country’s position as one of the most dynamically developing new oil producers.
- Record Wind Farm in the North Sea: The world's largest offshore wind farm, Dogger Bank, with a total capacity of 3.6 GW, has been completed in the North Sea. The project is realized by a consortium of European energy companies and is capable of supplying electricity to up to 6 million households in the UK. This milestone demonstrates the capabilities of large-scale green projects and marks an important step in the development of renewable energy.
- Transnational Oil Transit: Russian "Transneft" and Kazakh "KazTransOil" have signed an agreement for the transportation of Kazakh oil through Russian territory in 2026. The agreement ensures the continuation of cooperation in hydrocarbon exports, despite geopolitical complexities, and utilizes the existing pipeline infrastructure.
Overall, players in the oil and gas sector, as well as the energy sector, are adapting to the new market reality. Some are revising their asset portfolios considering geopolitical risks and changing conditions (like Aramco, expanding into new sales markets), while others are taking advantage of favorable circumstances to increase production and implement projects (like ExxonMobil with partners in Guyana). At the same time, investments in both traditional oil and gas directions and in the energy transition — from wind energy to hydrogen technologies — continue. The industry faces the necessity of striking a balance between short-term profitability and long-term decarbonization goals, and this choice defines key strategic decisions for companies as they approach 2026.
