Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector of Russia as of December 15, 2025: Sanctions, Exports, Oil and Gas Market, Domestic Fuel Prices, Renewable Energy Sources, and Global Commodity Trends. A Detailed Analytical Review for Investors and Industry Participants.
The latest developments in the fuel and energy complex as of December 15, 2025, attract the attention of investors and market participants due to their contradictions. The United States has made an unprecedented tightening of sanctions against the Russian oil industry, leading to a restructuring of global energy trading and underscoring the ongoing geopolitical tension. However, oil prices in the global market remain relatively stable and hover near multi-month lows: oversupply and cautious demand keep rates around moderate levels. The North Sea Brent blend is trading at approximately $60-62 per barrel, while American WTI is in the $57-59 range, about 15% lower than a year ago, reflecting ongoing corrections from the peaks of the energy crisis of 2022-2023. The European gas market also demonstrates a stable equilibrium: underground storage facilities in the EU are over 70% full, providing a solid buffer going into winter, and exchange gas prices are maintained at relatively low levels (around $9 per million BTU, significantly lower than figures from last year).
Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum, with many countries setting new records in renewable energy generation, although for the reliability of energy systems, states still rely on traditional resources. As a result, amidst the green transformation and escalating sanctions confrontation, governments and companies must balance between decarbonization strategies and energy security. In Russia, following a recent spike in fuel prices, authorities are implementing a comprehensive set of measures to stabilize the domestic oil product market - from export restrictions to record subsidies for oil producers. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity sectors as of the current date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Moderate Demand Keep Prices Low
Global oil prices remain at relatively low levels influenced by fundamental factors. After noticeable growth in production in 2024-2025 by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+), along with increased supplies from the U.S. and other independent producers, market expectations of oversupply have intensified. At the same time, global oil demand is growing only moderately: the slowdown of the Chinese economy in the first half of the year and improved energy efficiency are restraining consumption, although by the end of 2025, the global macroeconomic situation started to improve. Collectively, these factors prevent prices from rising: Brent hovers around $60 per barrel, while WTI is below $60. In comparison, oil traded significantly higher just a year ago, so the current quotes reflect a gradual return of the market to normalcy after a tumultuous period of volatility. OPEC+, facing the threat of market oversaturation, has suspended production increases for the first time in a long while, deciding to keep quotas unchanged at least in the first quarter of 2026. Recent forecasts suggest that next year, global oil supply could exceed demand by approximately 3-4 million barrels per day; however, recent sanctions restrictions have slightly reduced the expected surplus. The International Energy Agency noted that sanctions against specific supplier countries (primarily Russia and Venezuela) are reducing available volumes in the market, while the recovering economy adds confidence in demand. In its December report, OPEC confirms the increase in oil consumption in 2026 and anticipates a more balanced market: according to the cartel's estimates, global demand and supply will be close to each other next year. Thus, the oil market enters 2026 with cautious optimism: despite the pressure from excessive stocks, OPEC+ measures and economic recovery could prevent prices from falling further.
Gas Market: Comfortable Stocks in Europe and Moderate Fuel Prices
The gas market's focus is on Europe, which confidently navigates the beginning of the winter season thanks to accumulated reserves. European countries filled their underground storage ahead of schedule to high levels: by mid-December, gas reserves exceed 75% of storage capacity, significantly higher than average figures from previous years. These comfortable reserves provide a reliable buffer in case of cold weather spikes and help keep prices in check. Currently, spot prices at the TTF hub fluctuate around €25-28 per MWh (approximately $8-9 per MMBtu), remaining moderate and about a third lower than a year ago. Even periods of colder weather do not lead to sharp price spikes, as the market is balanced due to diversified supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and reduced consumption. This situation is favorable for European industry and energy at the onset of winter, as it lowers the burden on the budgets of households and businesses compared to the crisis of 2022.
Potential risks of intensified competition for energy resources from Asia loom ahead if economic growth in Asia-Pacific countries accelerates and they begin to actively procure additional batches of LNG. However, currently, the European gas balance appears stable. Moreover, the European Union is taking strategic steps towards complete independence from Russian energy resources. At the political level, an agreement has been reached to phase out imports of Russian gas: a complete ban on LNG shipments from Russia is planned starting at the end of 2026, and pipeline gas – from the autumn of 2027. This continues the EU's course towards enhancing energy security, initiated after the events of 2022. Already, imports of Russian gas have declined to around 13% of total supplies to the EU, while the share of Russian oil in European imports has fallen below 3%. Thus, Europe secures itself with gas from alternative sources and confidently reduces its dependence on Russia, which will in the long term lower the vulnerability of its market and contribute to price stability.
International Politics: New U.S. Sanctions Transform the Global Oil Market
Geopolitical factors continue to exert significant influence on the fuel and energy market. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the United States sharply increased the sanctions pressure on the Russian oil and gas sector. In October, the U.S. administration imposed direct sanctions against the two largest oil companies in Russia – Rosneft and Lukoil, which account for about two-thirds of Russian oil exports. These measures, effective from the end of November, target the very core of Russia's oil sector and effectively demonstrate that even the leading companies in the country are no longer "too big" for sanctions. As a result, Moscow's export capabilities have faced new obstacles: according to industry analysts, oil and gas revenues for the Russian budget in November fell by about a third compared to last year, reaching their lowest level since the beginning of the sanctions war in 2022. The strike against major exporters has led to disruptions in getting Russian oil to the global market: traders report an increase in volumes of Russian oil seeking buyers and stored aboard tankers at sea since traditional trade chains have been disrupted.
Many states, which previously increased their purchases of Russian energy resources, have begun to reassess their policies due to sanctions and market conditions. Turkey, India, Brazil, and several other major importers have reduced their purchases of Russian oil as the year ends, striving to avoid secondary sanctions and issues with financial transactions. However, China remains a key buyer: Beijing, not having joined Western sanctions, continues to purchase large volumes of Russian oil and gas, although it insists on substantial discounts. Exporters from Russia are forced to offer discounts to the global price to maintain the Asian market – according to trading platforms, Urals brand is trading with a spread of about $15-20 relative to Brent. Additional pressure on Moscow comes from the European Union, which has previously almost ceased importing Russian oil and oil products and is now legislatively formalizing a complete refusal of Russian gas in the coming years. Consequently, the global oil market is undergoing structural changes: Russian companies are hurriedly selling foreign assets (refineries, distribution networks in Europe and other regions), making space for competitors, while traditional crude trading flows are being redirected. Although dialogue between Moscow and Washington regarding energy is currently practically frozen, the continuation of sanctions escalation remains a serious factor of uncertainty for the market. Investors are closely monitoring the situation: further tightening of restrictions or retaliatory steps from Russia may affect global prices, while any hints of easing tensions would be viewed as a positive signal. For now, the status quo remains, with sanctions confrontation persisting, and market participants adapting to the new reality of a fragmented oil and gas landscape.
Asia: India and China Between Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Facing pressure from Western sanctions, New Delhi clearly prioritizes energy security and does not intend to sharply reduce purchases of Russian energy resources. Russian oil and gas remain critical elements in the country’s import structure, and a sudden refusal of these resources is deemed unacceptable given the needs of the economy. Instead, India has negotiated favorable terms: Russian suppliers are offering increased discounts on Urals oil (estimated at around $5 per barrel to the price of Brent), allowing Indian refineries to procure raw materials at reduced rates. As a result, India continues to actively purchase Russian oil under preferential conditions and is even increasing imports of oil products from Russia to meet the rising domestic fuel demand. At the same time, the government is intensifying its long-term strategy to reduce dependence on imports. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of an extensive program for the exploration of deep-water oil and gas fields during his August Independence Day address. Under this initiative, the state corporation ONGC has commenced ultra-deep drilling (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea, and the initial results have been deemed promising. This "deep-water mission" aims to stimulate the discovery of new hydrocarbon reserves and bring India closer to the goal of increasing self-sufficiency in energy resources in the future.
- China: The largest economy in Asia is also increasing its energy procurement while investing in the growth of its domestic production. Chinese companies remain the leading buyers of Russian oil and gas: Beijing does not support sanctions against Moscow and has capitalized on the situation by importing Russian raw materials at favorable prices. According to customs statistics from China, in 2024, the country imported about 212.8 million tons of oil and 246.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas – these volumes increased by 1.8% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to the previous year. In 2025, imports continue at a high level, although the growth rates have slightly slowed due to the high base effect and the general rise in oil prices. Simultaneously, China is stimulating domestic oil and gas extraction: from January to September 2025, national companies extracted about 180 million tons of oil and 210 billion cubic meters of gas, which slightly exceeds levels from the same period last year. Growth in domestic production partially compensates for the increased demand but does not eliminate China's need for external supplies. The Chinese authorities continue to invest in the development of fields and enhanced oil recovery technologies, seeking to slow down the growth of imports. Nonetheless, given the scale of the economy, China's reliance on imported energy resources remains significant: experts estimate that in the coming years, the country will import at least 70% of its oil and around 40% of its gas. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers – India and China – continue to play a key role in global commodity markets, combining strategies for importing resources with developing their own resource base.
Energy Transition: Growth of Renewable Energy and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy is rapidly gaining momentum. In 2025, many countries reported new records in electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), primarily solar and wind. The European Union reported that for the entirety of 2024, total generation at solar and wind power plants surpassed electricity generation at coal and gas thermal power plants for the first time. This trend continued into 2025: the commissioning of new capacities has further increased the share of "green" electricity in the EU, while the share of coal in the energy balance is gradually decreasing following a temporary increase during the crises of 2022-2023. In the United States, renewable energy has also reached historical heights – at the beginning of 2025, over 30% of total generation came from RES, and the overall output from wind and solar surpassed production from coal-fired plants for the first time. China, being the world leader in installed RES capacity, adds tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines annually, constantly breaking its own records in "green" generation. In total worldwide, companies and investors are directing unprecedented funds into the development of clean energy: according to estimates from the International Energy Agency, total investment in the global energy sector in 2025 exceeded $3 trillion, with more than half of that directed towards RES projects, as well as the modernization of grid infrastructure and energy storage systems. International climate agendas also provide additional impetus – at the recent UN climate summit (COP30), global leaders reaffirmed their commitment to emission reduction goals, implying accelerated expansion of low-carbon energy in the coming years.
At the same time, energy systems still require traditional generation to ensure stability and cover peak loads. The rapid growth of solar and wind installations creates new challenges for network balancing during hours when renewable generation temporarily becomes unavailable – at night, during windless weather, or during extreme loads. To guarantee uninterrupted power supply, in certain cases, operators must revert to using gas-fired and even coal power plants again. For example, in some regions of Europe last winter, output from coal-fired plants was temporarily increased during periods of calm and cold weather, despite the environmental toll of such a step. Recognizing these risks, governments in many countries are investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage stations) and "smart" grids capable of flexibly redistributing loads. These measures aim to enhance the reliability of power supply as the share of RES grows. Experts predict that by 2026-2027, renewable sources may surpass coal generation globally, firmly establishing themselves as the leading power generation sources. However, over the next few years, there remains a significant need to maintain traditional power plants as reserves and a fallback against outages. Thus, the global energy transition is reaching new heights while requiring a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources to ensure that energy systems remain resilient and flexible.
Coal: Stable Market Amid Sustained High Demand
Despite the accelerated development of renewable sources, the global coal market maintains significant volumes and remains a key part of the global energy balance. Demand for coal products remains consistently high, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and electricity needs support the intensive use of this fuel. China – the world's largest coal consumer and producer – continues to burn coal at practically record rates in 2025. Annual production at Chinese mines exceeds 4 billion tons, covering a lion's share of the country’s domestic needs. However, this barely meets peak demand during certain periods: for example, in hot summer months when air conditioning is widely used, China's energy system faces heightened loads, and coal generation remains indispensable to prevent outages. India, with substantial coal reserves, is also increasing its consumption: over 70% of the country's electricity is still generated from coal-fired plants, and absolute coal usage is rising alongside the economy. Other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) are advancing projects for constructing new coal power plants to meet the growing energy consumption of populations and industries.
Global coal production and trade have adapted to the ongoing high demand. Major exporters – Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa – have increased production and export supplies of thermal coal in recent years, allowing prices to remain at moderate levels. After the price spikes of 2022, thermal coal prices have returned to more familiar values and have fluctuated within a narrow range in recent months. The balance of demand and supply now appears balanced: consumers are guaranteed their necessary fuel supplies, while producers have a stable market with profitable prices. Although several countries have announced plans to gradually reduce coal use in the future for climate goals, in the short term, coal remains an indispensable resource for providing electricity to billions of people. Most experts believe that over the next 5-10 years, coal generation – particularly in Asia – will continue to play a significant role, even amid global decarbonization efforts. Thus, the coal sector is experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand remains consistently high, prices are moderate, and the industry is still one of the fundamental pillars of global energy.
The Russian Oil Products Market: Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
In the internal fuel segment in Russia, emergency steps are being taken in the second half of 2025 to normalize the price situation and prevent fuel shortages. Back in August, wholesale exchange prices for automotive gasoline in the Russian Federation reached new historical highs, exceeding the records set in the previous year. This occurred against a backdrop of several factors: high summer demand (active car tourism, harvesting in the agricultural sector), limited fuel supplies, and unscheduled stoppages at several oil refineries. Accidents and drone attacks in late summer damaged several large refineries, reducing gasoline output and leading to local supply disruptions in several regions. Faced with an impending fuel crisis, the government was forced to intensify manual market regulation. On August 14, an emergency meeting of the task force on monitoring the situation in the fuel and energy complex, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, was held. Following this meeting, a set of measures to reduce price hysteria and stabilize supplies in the domestic market was announced. Among the main steps:
- Fuel Export Restrictions: A temporary ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel from the Russian Federation, introduced in late summer, has been extended indefinitely. The government has directly mandated oil companies to redirect supplies to the domestic market. Authorities are also discussing the possibility of introducing quotas or a complete embargo on diesel fuel exports to ensure priority supplies for domestic consumers.
- Distribution Control and Refinery Operations: Regulators have intensified monitoring of fuel distribution within the country. Producers are mandated to prioritize meeting domestic market needs and avoid exchange resales that previously drove prices up. One of the reasons for the shortages was unscheduled stoppages at major refineries, so particular attention is focused on the rapid restoration of their operations and preventing similar disruptions. The Ministry of Energy, in collaboration with the FAS and the St. Petersburg International Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange, is developing long-term measures – for example, switching to direct contracts between refineries and gas stations to bypass exchange intermediaries – to make the fuel distribution system more transparent and resilient.
- Subsidies and Dampening Mechanism: The government has increased financial support for refiners to curb prices at gas stations. Budget payments for the reverse excise tax on fuel (the so-called "dampener") continue without interruption, compensating companies for the difference between export and domestic revenue. In October, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree prohibiting the suspension of compensation payments to oil producers until May 2026, effectively removing previously existing limitations on the size of subsidies. According to the Ministry of Finance, in the first nine months of 2025, oil companies received about 715.5 billion rubles under the fuel dampening program – an unprecedented amount of state support aimed at stabilizing prices. These measures encourage companies to retain a larger volume of oil products in the domestic market, despite higher prices abroad.
The comprehensive measures implemented aim to gradually stabilize fuel prices in Russia and prevent shortages at gas stations. The extension of export limitations should increase the supply of gasoline domestically by hundreds of thousands of tons monthly – previously, these volumes were sent abroad. Concurrently, extensive subsidies maintain economic motivation for oil companies to saturate the domestic market. The government declares its readiness to continue taking preventive actions: if necessary, restrictions on the export of oil products will be extended, and additional resources will be quickly directed from state reserves to the regions. To date, the intensity of the fuel crisis has been somewhat alleviated: despite record wholesale prices, retail prices for gasoline and diesel at gas stations have risen much more moderately (by units of percentage since the beginning of the year, close to overall inflation). Gas stations are adequately supplied with fuel, and it is expected that the implemented measures will gradually cool exchange quotations. Monitoring of the situation continues at the highest level – relevant ministries and the government of the Russian Federation are prepared to introduce new mechanisms if necessary to ensure stable fuel supply to the domestic market and keep prices for end consumers within acceptable limits.
