Global News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for November 20, 2025: Price Dynamics of Oil and Gas, Sanctions, Production, Renewable Energy, Coal, and Key Trends in the World Energy Sector.
Global Oil Prices: Decline Amid Peace Prospects
The global oil market is experiencing a price decrease following reports of potential progress in peace negotiations regarding the armed conflict in Ukraine. As of November 19, prices for Brent oil fell by approximately 2.8% (to ~$63 per barrel), and WTI dropped by 2.9% (to ~$59 per barrel) by midday. Investors reacted to news of a U.S. peace initiative, which revived hopes for an end to hostilities. The prospect of agreements reduces the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices and shifts the market's focus to underlying supply and demand fundamentals, which currently point to an oversupply situation.
Oil prices had already been under pressure prior to this news due to concerns of overproduction. Last week, Brent and WTI lost about 4% amid signals of impending market surpluses. A brief uptick in prices on Tuesday was followed by another decline on Wednesday, solidifying the downward trend. Analysts note that if military risks to oil supplies diminish, the market will concentrate on the current supply and demand balance, which indicates excess supply.
Risks of Oil Oversupply and OPEC+ Actions
Fundamental indicators of the oil market signal a likely oversupply in the coming months. Several industry organizations have revised their forecasts, indicating a potential saturation of the oil market by 2025-2026:
- OPEC and IEA Estimates: The November report from OPEC notes that the global oil market may face an oversupply by 2026 (previously anticipated to be a deficit). The International Energy Agency also highlighted an acceleration in production growth, which could lead to an overhang of oil stocks.
- U.S. Production: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. oil production will hit a historical high by the end of 2025, further amplifying global supply.
Against this backdrop, the OPEC+ alliance is gradually increasing production following an extended period of restrictions. Since April 2025, the cartel has shifted its strategy from reducing output to a phased increase, aiming to reclaim lost market positions and prevent price surges. This autumn, OPEC+ countries raised their collective quota by approximately +137,000 barrels per day in October and by an equal amount in November, easing previously voluntarily held volumes. However, many participants in the agreement are already operating at full capacity, causing actual supply gains to lag behind announcements.
Nevertheless, OPEC+'s current policy aims to stabilize the market—largely influenced by pressure from Donald Trump's U.S. administration, which is demanding lower energy prices.
Sanctions and the Restructuring of the Oil Market
Geopolitical factors continue to impact the oil industry. New U.S. sanctions imposed in October against major Russian oil companies "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" will take effect on November 21, which is expected to gradually reduce Russian oil export volumes. Several buyers in China and India have already begun to turn away from these companies' crude, transitioning to alternative suppliers.
Russian authorities assert that the sanctions have not yet had a significant effect on production levels. According to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, oil production in Russia remains stable, and the new restrictions have not reduced output volumes. He also emphasized that Russia has compensated for prior quota excesses under the OPEC+ agreement and does not plan to voluntarily cut production beyond established agreements.
Experts note that upcoming peace negotiations could potentially pave the way for easing sanctions. The U.S. has already signaled a willingness to revisit the restrictions in the event of progress in conflict resolution. A gradual de-escalation of geopolitical tensions over time could allow a return to freer oil trade.
Notably, the sanctions regime and military risks have already impacted the global oil products market. In particular, recent restrictions and drone strikes on Russian refineries triggered a spike in gasoline prices in the U.S. to their highest levels since 2022. Thus, conflicts and sanctions affect the entire supply chain—from oil extraction to fuel costs for end consumers.
Russian Oil Production and the Domestic Market
Russia, despite external pressures, is gradually increasing oil production. According to Alexander Novak, the country expects to fully meet its quotas under OPEC+ (~9.5 million barrels per day) by the end of 2025. As of November, production had nearly reached this level (in October, production lagged by ~70,000 bpd), and Moscow maintains its annual production forecast at around 510 million tons.
Russian oil companies have fully compensated for excess production from previous months under the OPEC+ agreement and do not plan to voluntarily reduce output beyond the established quota. In other words, no additional production restrictions from Russia are currently anticipated.
On the domestic fuel market, the situation stabilized by November. Government-imposed restrictions on petroleum product exports, seasonal demand decreases, and the return of refineries from maintenance have saturated the market. Wholesale and retail prices for gasoline and diesel, which surged in September, have rolled back to more familiar levels. Fuel companies have restored normal supplies at gas stations, while authorities continue monitoring prices to prevent a new shortage.
The Natural Gas Market: Europe and the U.S.
- Europe: Gas prices in Europe have decreased to their lowest levels in nearly a year and a half. In mid-November, futures at the TTF hub fell to ~$364 per 1,000 m3 due to low demand and a substantial influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Mild weather and high storage levels allowed the EU to enter the winter season without price shocks. Despite Europe's shift away from Russian gas, some volumes under long-term contracts are still arriving, albeit their proportion is steadily decreasing. Experts expect a surplus in the global LNG market from the second half of 2026, which could further lower prices.
- U.S.: In the United States, however, the era of cheap gas has ended—the prices have reached a three-year high. The Henry Hub price index soared to ~$162 per 1,000 m3, marking a record since 2022, amid a sharp rise in LNG exports (exceeding 0.5 billion cubic meters per day) and increased domestic demand as cold weather sets in. High gas prices are already forcing several utilities to switch to coal generation to curb expenses and meet electricity demands.
Coal Sector and Electric Power Industry
The global coal market is relatively stable as of late 2025 after periods of sharp fluctuations. In Europe, energy coal prices dropped to a four-year low in the autumn; however, they regained some ground with the onset of the heating season. Early cold weather temporarily increased coal use for electricity generation in October, although the overall trend toward decarbonization remains intact.
In the U.S., rising natural gas prices triggered the opposite effect: energy companies ramped up coal-fired power plant usage, halting a years-long decline in coal's share. Although this is a temporary phenomenon tied to fuel price dynamics, it underscored the importance of diversifying energy sources for the reliability of the energy system.
In China, a sharp increase in coal consumption was also observed in the autumn. A combination of cold weather in the north and abnormal heat in the south of the country led to a spike in electricity demand, which had to be met through increased output from coal-fired power plants (amid a temporary drop in renewable energy generation). This elevated domestic coal prices and illustrated how significantly weather conditions impact the energy sector.
Despite these short-term surges, the long-term prospects for the coal industry remain subdued. The anticipated natural gas surplus by 2026 and large-scale construction of renewable energy projects will restrict coal use growth. Investors are becoming increasingly cautious regarding coal projects, focusing on low-carbon development goals.
Renewable Energy and Climate Goals
Renewable energy sources (RES) continue to strengthen their presence in the global energy balance. The United Kingdom recently announced a major offshore wind project: a consortium of EDP Renewables (Portugal) and Engie (France) has secured rights to develop a 1.5 GW floating offshore wind farm in the Celtic Sea off the coast of Wales. This project aims to accelerate the decarbonization of the British electricity sector: By 2030, London plans to increase installed capacity of offshore wind farms to 50 GW and virtually eliminate fossil fuels from generation.
Other countries are also ramping up investments in RES, viewing them as a means to enhance energy security and reduce dependence on fuel imports amid volatile oil and gas prices.
Industry organizations, however, urge against allowing a shortage of traditional resources during the transition period and insist on adequate investments in oil and gas to avoid further price spikes. At the same time, scientists warn that CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in 2025 could set a new record, complicating the fulfillment of climate goals. In the lead-up to the United Nations Climate Summit COP30, governments and energy companies are under pressure to meet heightened environmental standards. The balance between meeting the growing energy demand and fulfilling environmental commitments becomes a key challenge for the entire fuel and energy complex.
