Key News from the Oil and Gas Industry and Energy Sector for Friday, January 2, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Refineries, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
Main Trends in the Global Energy Market
The year 2025 concluded for the oil and gas sector amidst conflicting factors: oil prices fell by nearly 20% due to fears of oversupply, while geopolitical tensions continue to sustain demand for "safe" assets. Analysts believe that an oversupply may emerge in the oil markets in 2026, putting downward pressure on prices; however, local restrictions (the EU ban on petroleum products from Russia, attacks on refineries) are limiting exports and keeping prices at high levels, particularly for diesel fuel.
Trends in the gas markets are changing rapidly: Europe is phasing out transit through Ukraine and plans to completely eliminate dependence on Russian gas by 2028, increasing LNG imports. Asia is also restructuring supply routes in response to trade disputes. Meanwhile, global electricity demand is rising due to the rapid development of data centers, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicles, stimulating investments in renewable energy and energy storage.
Oil Market: Prices and Forecasts
- Price Outlook: Experts predict that Brent crude oil will trade in the range of $60–65 per barrel in 2026. Total supply is expected to exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day, leading to an oversupply of stocks.
- OPEC+ Policy: OPEC+ countries have suspended production increases and maintained previously announced production cuts. The total level of reductions remains at around 3.2 million barrels per day, equivalent to ~3% of global demand.
- Demand: The global economy demonstrates steady growth, leading to an increase in oil demand by several hundred thousand barrels per day in 2026. Active consumption growth is observed in Asia and the Middle East, while U.S. shale oil production is beginning to decline slightly.
- Geopolitics: Prospects for a peaceful resolution in Ukraine could sharply alter the oil market balance. Lifting sanctions and the return of Russian volumes to the market would lead to increased supply, while their retention would support prices.
Gas Market: Supplies and Demand
- Pipeline Exports: Russian gas exports via pipelines to Europe fell by over 40% by the end of 2025 due to the cessation of the Ukrainian route. The EU plans to completely eliminate imports of Russian gas by 2028, leaving only a few transit routes.
- LNG and Alternatives: European countries are actively increasing LNG purchases from the U.S., Qatar, and other suppliers. At the same time, Asia has sharply reduced LNG imports from the U.S. following the imposition of tariffs on American energy. Demand for LNG in China and India continues to grow as these countries seek to diversify fuel sources.
- Regional Trends: Turkey is investing in gas infrastructure and storage to enhance its energy security. In China, demand for natural gas is expected to grow until 2035-2045 (up to 620-650 billion cubic meters per year), driving further expansion of gas networks.
Renewable Energy and Electricity
- Electricity Demand: Electricity consumption in many countries is growing at record rates. In the U.S., it may exceed 4.2 trillion kWh by 2026 due to the boom of data centers, the development of AI, electrification of transport, and the housing and utilities sector.
- Renewable Energy Share: The share of renewable sources in electricity generation is steadily increasing. By 2030, the total installed capacity of "green" generation may exceed 4.6 TW (with 80% from solar plants), and a significant increase in the share of wind and solar power is expected in the coming years due to incentive policies and decreasing technology costs.
- Energy Storage: The implementation of battery systems is gaining momentum. Chinese manufacturers are leading in this area — estimates indicate that their exports of lithium-ion batteries for storage grew by 75% in 2025. Global investments in storage are also increasing and could surpass $60 billion by the end of the year.
Coal Sector
- Global Demand: According to IEA forecasts, coal consumption is expected to reach a record 8.85 billion tons in 2025 (+0.5% compared to 2024) and will begin to gradually decline by the end of the decade as renewable, nuclear, and gas generation capacities grow.
- Regional Dynamics: In India, coal demand has decreased due to heavy rains and increased hydropower, while in the U.S. it has risen amid rising gas prices. China, the largest coal consumer (30% more than the rest of the world combined), showed stabilization in 2025, but a decline in coal's share of the energy mix is expected by the 2030s.
- Environmental Factors: Countries continue to balance between climate goals and energy security. Even under pressure for decarbonization, the coal sector remains significant in several regions, creating uncertainty in policies and investments.
Refining and Petroleum Products
- Diesel Deficit: In 2025, the margin for European diesel rose by approximately 30% while oil prices fell. This is attributed to attacks on Ukrainian refineries and the EU's ban on importing fuel from Russian oil. Limited diesel supply supports high spreads on petroleum products.
- New Capacities: Large-scale projects for building refineries in developed countries are not planned, hence the market for petroleum products is experiencing a structural deficit. Investors expect high margins to persist until refining capacities increase.
- Venezuela: PDVSA is accumulating heavy residues in storage as sanctions limit the export of fuel oil and fuel. This exacerbates the deficit of marine fuel and affects regions dependent on Venezuelan exports.
Corporate Events and Projects
- Contracts and Investments: Major companies are signing large agreements. Italian Saipem secured a $425 million contract for the development of the largest gas field, Sakarya, in Turkey. British Harbour Energy has become the operator of the Mexican Zama field (≈750 million barrels of oil) and has concluded deals worth $3.2 billion in the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening its position.
- Mergers and Acquisitions: In December 2025, Harbour Energy acquired a 32% stake in the Zama project and gained control over the LLOG asset in the Gulf of Mexico, making the company the operator of two of the largest independent projects in the region.
- Sanctions and Licenses: Regulators continue to influence the energy sector. In Serbia, the NIS oil refinery (owned by Gazprom Neft) received a temporary OFAC license until January 2026, allowing it to resume operations after a halt related to U.S. sanctions.
Financial and Market Indicators
- Market Trends: Leading stock indices of energy companies reflect the situation in raw material markets. At the end of 2025, Middle Eastern indices declined following the fall in oil prices (for instance, the Saudi Arabia index fell by 1%), and shares of major oil and gas companies showed a slight decrease.
- Regulation and Monetary Policy: Central banks influence the investment climate. For example, in Egypt, a reduction in the key rate by 100 basis points supported stock market growth (+0.9%), stimulating domestic demand. Similar measures are being discussed in other developing countries.
- Commodity Currencies: The currencies of energy-exporting countries remain relatively stable due to fiscal and budgetary mechanisms. The Russian ruble, Norwegian krone, and Canadian dollar are supported by revenues from oil and gas sales, which limits their volatility amid falling prices.
