Global News on the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, February 6, 2026: Oil and Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Oil Products, and Key Market Trends in the Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC).
The global fuel and energy complex (FEC) is exhibiting high dynamism as the weekend approaches. Oil prices responded with a decline to diplomatic signals, the gas market is adapting to new supply realities, and the energy transition is gaining momentum worldwide. These processes are influencing investors and companies in the fuel and energy sector, shaping the industry's development strategy. Below, we outline key news and trends in the oil, gas, and energy sectors for February 6, 2026.
Fall in Oil Prices Ahead of US-Iran Talks
Oil prices have declined in anticipation of dialogue between Washington and Tehran. After two days of growth, the price per barrel of WTI crude corrected to approximately $64, while North Sea Brent is trading around $69 per barrel. Investors note that the willingness of the US and Iran to hold negotiations in Oman on February 6 has partially eased the geopolitical premium on oil prices. Previously, the market had factored in risks of escalation—fears of strikes against Iranian oil infrastructure kept prices elevated. Now, diplomatic signals from the administration of President Donald Trump and Iran's agreement to discuss the nuclear program have lowered traders' anxiety.
Nevertheless, volatility in the oil market persists, as the outcomes of the negotiations remain uncertain. The US insists on an expanded agenda, including security issues, while Iran wishes to restrict the discussions to sanctions and nuclear aspects. The uncertainty around achieving concrete agreements at the initial stage of the meetings is keeping market participants from excessive optimism. Additionally, new data from the US indicated that commercial crude oil inventories decreased less than expected (by approximately 3.5 million barrels according to EIA), which limited the potential for a new price rally. Overall, oil companies and investors are closely monitoring the Washington-Tehran dialogue, understanding its significance for the supply balance in the oil market.
Sanctions, Conflicts, and Redirection of Oil Supplies
Geopolitical factors continue to impact global oil and gas markets. The war in Ukraine remains in focus: ongoing strikes on energy infrastructure heighten market anxiety. President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the direct impact of conflict escalation on oil prices and urged the US to enhance support for Ukraine. Any escalation or, conversely, easing of the sanctions standoff between Russia and the West immediately reflects on global oil and gas prices.
Meanwhile, the pressure from sanctions is leading to a redistribution of oil flows in the global market. The White House is seeking ways to displace Russian oil from key sales markets. President Donald Trump stated that he secured a promise from India to gradually reduce its imports of Russian energy resources. As an incentive, the US is prepared to reduce trade tariffs for New Delhi—this move aims to increase supplies of American and Venezuelan oil to India. Although the Indian side has yet to officially confirm the cessation of imports from Russia, pressure is being felt: Indian refineries have reported difficulties with payments and fears of secondary sanctions, leading them to reduce the procurement of premium grades from Russia. Previously, Indian refineries profited greatly from substantial discounts on Russian oil, supplied at prices significantly below global levels.
According to analysts, Russia's budget is facing serious challenges due to falling oil and gas revenues. The key reasons for the decline in Russia's export earnings include:
- Reduction in purchases of Russian oil by major importers (primarily India).
- Increases in the discounts for Russian crude (over 20% below global market prices).
- High domestic interest rates, hindering the development of the sector.
- Labor shortages in the oil and gas sector.
In January alone, the Russian budget's revenues from oil and oil products exports halved, dropping to the lowest level since Summer 2020. Western sanctions against Russian oil and oil products (including price caps and tanker fleet restrictions) are increasingly affecting sales volumes. Russian oil exports at the beginning of 2026 decreased to ~1.2–1.3 million barrels per day (compared to record levels of ~1.7 million b/d in 2024-2025), and experts believe that Moscow will be forced to sell smaller volumes in Asia while continuing to offer discounts. As a result, global oil flows are being adjusted: an increasing share of imports in India and other Asian countries is accounted for by Middle Eastern grades and resources from Africa and Latin America. FEC market players are preparing for a prolonged period of changes driven by the sanctions standoff.
Oil Production and Supply: Risks and Forecasts
Fundamental indicators of the oil market are attracting close attention. Global oil demand in 2026 continues to grow and is projected to reach a record 106.5 million barrels per day (up by 1.4 million b/d compared to the previous year). However, supply-side limitations are showing. In Europe, the largest oil field, Johan Sverdrup (Norway), has reached its production peak and is beginning to see a decline in output. According to Equinor's management, production at Sverdrup will decrease by 10-20% this year. As Norway has become the primary oil supplier to the EU following Russia's exit (accounting for up to 15% of the European market), the decline at this key North Sea field is causing concern among buyers. Experts note that the surplus production period experienced in recent years may shift to a deficit if the decline in production at aging fields is not compensated by new projects. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has previously indicated that approximately $540 billion needs to be invested annually worldwide into exploration and development of new oil and gas fields to offset natural production declines and satisfy growing demand.
Thus far, OPEC+ countries are adhering to a cautious policy, maintaining market balance. Additional barrels could come onto the market if sanctions on Iran are successfully lifted—the ongoing negotiations regarding the nuclear deal aim for this. At the same time, the potential for rapid supply increases from other regions is limited. Oil production in the US, having reached record export levels after the imposition of sanctions against Russia, may soon stabilize. Industry data shows that American producers have already realized significant increases over the past three years, and further export growth faces infrastructural and geological limitations. Therefore, the question of investment activity among oil companies is becoming a priority—without investments in new projects in the coming years, the global market risks facing a supply deficit.
Gas Market: European Winter and Global Trends
The natural gas market is also undergoing structural changes, reflecting a new reality of energy security. European countries are concluding the winter season with noticeably depleted reserves: gas stocks in the EU fell to approximately 44% of total capacity by the end of January—one of the lowest figures in recent years. However, gas prices in Europe remain relatively stable, without panic spikes. Factors at play include mild weather, energy-saving measures, and most importantly—record volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. In 2025, Europe increased LNG purchases by approximately 30%, reaching a historical maximum of over 175 billion cubic meters, compensating for the cessation of pipeline supplies from Russia.
In early February, the European Union legally enshrined the course towards completely halting purchases of Russian gas. A new regulation has been adopted, requiring EU countries to prepare national plans for phasing out gas from Russia and diversifying sources by March. In effect, by 2027, Europe plans to eliminate its dependence on Russian pipeline gas entirely and even LNG, closing the door on the return of Russian fuel to its market. The lost volumes (estimated by the IEA to be around 33 billion cubic meters between 2025-2028) will be replaced by alternatives: primarily through increased LNG imports from North America, the Middle East, and Africa.
The global gas market is preparing to support Europe and meet demand in Asia. Forecasts indicate that global LNG production will grow by approximately 7% in 2026—the highest rate since 2019. New export terminals are being launched in the US, Canada, and Mexico, significantly increasing supplies. Major importers in Asia, such as China, are also ramping up purchases to support their economic recovery. Consequently, despite the decrease in European reserves this winter, traders do not anticipate acute fuel shortages: additional LNG shipments are sufficient to replenish storage by summer. However, experts warn that Europe should remain vigilant. To reliably get through the next winter, the EU must actively inject gas, and price signals (e.g., the current “contango” price structure or spot quote levels) will influence the pace of inventory replenishment. Nonetheless, at present, regional energy companies are confident in their ability to ensure energy systems by leveraging global gas supply and diversification measures.
Coal and the Energy Transition: Regional Differences
Oil and gas are not the only strategic resources undergoing changes. The coal sector is experiencing a stark contrast between regions in the context of the global energy transition. Europe is rapidly phasing out coal: Czech Republic has entirely ceased coal production as of February 1, 2026, closing the last mine after 250 years of operation. Now, Poland remains the only country in Europe where industrial coal mining continues. European energy companies are transitioning power plants to gas and renewable energy sources (RES), and coal mines are deemed unprofitable and exhausted. The Czech decision was motivated by the fact that the national electricity system no longer relies on coal, and the extraction costs exceed market prices by more than double. Meanwhile, outside of Europe, many countries continue to actively utilize coal to secure their energy supply and stability:
- China: Coal production reached a record 4.83 billion tons in 2025. Coal still covers more than half of China's electricity needs. To avoid power shortages, Beijing is building new coal-fired power plants until 2027 while simultaneously developing renewable energy.
- India: The government is simultaneously expanding coal production and investing in RES. State support measures have allowed the reopening of 32 previously closed mines, and production is increasing. The goal is to reach around 1.5 billion tons of coal per year and transition to exporting surplus fuel. Coal helps reduce energy imports and ensures the operation of power plants for grid stability.
- Japan: Around 30% of total electricity generation in 2026 is provided by coal. Authorities officially refer to coal-fired power plants as essential for the reliability of the energy system—as a reserve in case of disruption in solar and wind energy supply and to reduce reliance on expensive imported gas. Despite plans to gradually reduce emissions, coal remains a strategic reserve for the Japanese economy.
- United States: After a prolonged decline in coal's role, demand unexpectedly grew by ~8% in 2025. This was due to high natural gas prices and increased energy consumption (e.g., from data centers and other energy-intensive sectors). US authorities even temporarily halted the retirement of old coal-fired power plants, and coal production received a boost as part of the strategy to enhance energy independence.
Thus, the global energy balance in the coal sector varies significantly. While European fuel companies hasten to phase out coal to fulfill climate commitments, Asian economies and other countries continue to rely on this fuel source to address energy security concerns. The transition to clean energy is occurring unevenly: regions rich in renewable resources actively implement green technologies, whereas others are compelled to retain coal in their energy mix to ensure stable power supply and affordable electricity prices.
Growth of Renewable Energy and Technological Trends
Renewable energy sources (RES) continue to gain momentum in the global FEC, as evidenced by investment figures. In particular, China is demonstrating unprecedented growth in the green sector: new data shows that over 90% of the increase in investments in the Chinese economy over the past year has been driven by the development of clean energy and electric transport. Production and export of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and electric vehicles brought China around 15.4 trillion yuan in revenue in 2025—over a third of the country's GDP growth. Essentially, renewable energy and adjacent high-tech sectors have become a driver of economic development, compensating for the slowdown in the traditional industrial sector.
Similar trends are observed in other regions. Around the world, governments are entering into new cooperation agreements on RES, creating supply chains for hydrogen energy, and seeking access to critical minerals (lithium, copper, rare earth elements) for battery and electronics production. Thus, energy companies are proactively seeking opportunities to develop resources and invest in raw material processing. Technological advancements are also opening new opportunities: efficient sodium batteries are emerging as an alternative to lithium-ion batteries, which may reduce dependence on scarce lithium in the future. In the energy generation sector, interest is growing in geothermal installations—modern techniques allow for heat extraction in unconventional areas, and the application of artificial intelligence mitigates risks during exploratory drilling. Several innovative geothermal projects are already nearing commercial viability, indicating diversification within the clean energy sector.
Against the backdrop of accelerated RES development, integrating these sources into the energy system is becoming increasingly relevant. Countries are investing in energy storage systems and "smart" grids to balance the uneven output of solar and wind farms. For instance, surplus solar and wind generation in China is planned to be directed towards producing "green" hydrogen, which can later serve as an energy carrier or raw material in industry. Such projects, alongside advancements in battery and hydrogen technologies, are attracting investors worldwide. Energy and oil companies are increasingly participating in green initiatives globally, seeking to adapt to the shifting energy demand structure. As a result, renewable energy is moving beyond being a niche sector: it is becoming a full-fledged economic sector that creates jobs, stimulates innovation, and reduces the carbon footprint of the energy industry.
International Deals and Corporate Initiatives in Energy
Major energy and fuel companies continue to build partnerships to strengthen their positions in the global market. This week, a landmark agreement in the oil and gas industry was announced: the Turkish National Oil Company TPAO signed a memorandum of understanding with American oil giant Chevron. The parties intend to jointly explore possibilities for oil and natural gas exploration and production both in Turkey and abroad. According to Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar, this collaboration is aimed at supporting the development of new projects—from the Gabar field in Turkey to initiatives in the Black Sea—and transforming TPAO into a global company. Earlier in January, TPAO entered a similar agreement with ExxonMobil to search for oil and gas on the Black and Mediterranean Sea shelves. These deals reflect the overall warming of relations between Ankara and Washington and Turkey's strategy to reduce its near-total dependency on energy imports. By expanding TPAO's operations abroad and attracting international expertise, Turkey is systematically moving towards enhancing its energy security.
Other countries are also betting on partnerships. In the context of the energy transition and geopolitical instability, joint projects allow for risk-sharing and investment attraction. For example, Middle Eastern countries continue cooperating with Asian consumers on LNG and oil projects, entering into long-term contracts for energy supply. Concurrently, companies across different sectors—from oil and gas to electricity—are joining forces to develop electric vehicle charging infrastructure, carbon capture projects, and other promising areas. In nuclear energy, Rosatom is actively participating in international forums and signing new agreements to construct reactors (including nuclear power plants in Egypt and other countries), ensuring the export of Russian technologies and loading for its enterprises. Wind and solar companies are forming consortia to develop offshore renewable energy parks, while multinational energy corporations are investing in energy storage startups.
The global energy market is international, and close cooperation between companies across different countries is becoming the norm. For investors, this signals that the sector is pursuing sustainability through diversification and technological exchange. International deals, whether in oil, gas, electricity, or RES, help strengthen supply chains and prepare for future challenges. Ultimately, global energy security increasingly relies on collective efforts rather than isolated actions by individual states or companies.
