Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy for Friday, December 26, 2025: Global Oil and Gas Markets, OPEC+ Decisions, Renewables, Coal, Refineries, Electricity, and Key Trends in the Fuel and Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
The latest events in the global fuel and energy sector on December 26, 2025, attract the attention of investors and market participants with conflicting signals. Intensive diplomatic negotiations continue regarding the resolution of the prolonged conflict in Eastern Europe, yet no concrete results have emerged so far. The U.S. and European partners have extended unprecedented security guarantees to Kyiv in exchange for a ceasefire, instilling cautious optimism regarding the prospects for a peace agreement. Nevertheless, no formal agreements have been reached, and the stringent sanctions regime against the Russian energy sector remains fully intact.
The global oil market remains under pressure from an oversupply and weakened demand. Prices for the benchmark Brent crude hover around $62 per barrel – close to the lowest levels observed since 2021, indicating a formation of surplus crude oil. The European gas market shows resilience: even during peak winter consumption, gas storage facilities in the EU are filled to about two-thirds of capacity, effectively excluding the risk of shortages. Stable liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and alternative pipeline fuels are keeping wholesale prices at moderate levels, significantly lower than the peaks of 2022, easing the burden for consumers.
Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum. Many countries are setting new records for electricity generation from renewable sources, although traditional coal and gas-fired power plants still play an important role in maintaining the reliability of energy systems. Simultaneously, there is a resurgence of interest in nuclear energy in several regions as a stable low-carbon source. Global coal consumption is estimated to have reached an historical peak in 2025 and is on the brink of decline. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
OPEC+ Keeps Production Steady to Stabilize the Market
- At the December meeting, OPEC+ members decided to maintain current oil production quotas for the first quarter of 2026 to prevent a potential oversupply in the market.
- OPEC+ countries have already returned approximately 2.9 million barrels per day to the market from previously reduced volumes, but a cumulative reduction of around 3.2 million bpd remains in place and has been extended until the end of 2026.
- The meeting occurred amid a renewed U.S. effort to reach a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. OPEC+ noted that successful negotiations and a potential easing of sanctions could lead to additional oil volumes entering the market, while a failure would intensify the sanctions pressure and restrict exports from Russia.
Oil Prices Remain Stable
Global oil prices are closing the year without sharp fluctuations, settling within an average range. Brent is holding steady around $62-$63 per barrel, while WTI is around $58-$59, reflecting a balance between stable demand and sufficient supply in the oil market.
- Earlier this week, oil prices rose by about 2% due to strong macroeconomic data from the U.S.: GDP growth in Q3 exceeded expectations, reinforcing demand forecasts for energy commodities.
- As the holiday season approached, trading activity on exchanges decreased, further limiting volatility and contributing to relative price stability by year-end.
Natural Gas: Comfortable Stocks and Moderate Prices
The natural gas market entered winter relatively calmly. In Europe, even the cold weather in December did not trigger any panic: gas storage facilities in the EU remain over 65% full of total capacity, significantly exceeding historical averages for year-end. Such a level of reserves virtually guarantees the absence of gas shortages this winter.
- Wholesale gas prices are holding at moderate levels. Futures for gas at the TTF hub are trading around €27 per MWh (approximately $320 per thousand cubic meters)—the lowest in nearly 18 months, significantly below the price peaks of 2022.
- Active LNG imports continue to replenish European storage: by the end of 2025, total LNG imports into Europe are expected to approach record levels. High volumes of supply are keeping prices from rising even with increased demand during the cold period.
- Looking ahead, potential price risks could arise from competition for LNG from Asia, should economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region accelerate and lead to increased Asian demand. However, for now, the balance in the gas market remains favorable for consumers.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Impact on Energy Supply
Political conflicts and sanctions continue to have a significant impact on global energy markets, presenting both threats of supply disruptions and hopes for improved conditions. In recent weeks, market attention has been focused on diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis: negotiations involving the U.S., EU, Ukraine, and Russia (including meetings in Berlin and Anchorage) demonstrated the parties' willingness to find a compromise.
So far, no breakthrough has occurred, meaning that strict sanctions against Russian oil and gas exports remain in place. Moreover, Washington has previously signaled its readiness to tighten measures in the absence of progress: the possibility of 100% tariffs on all Chinese exports to the U.S. was discussed if Beijing does not reduce its purchases of Russian oil. However, the continuation of dialogue has allowed the postponement of the harshest measures, and in the coming weeks, markets hope for positive developments. Any rapprochement may improve investor sentiment and soften the sanction rhetoric, while failure in negotiations threatens a further escalation of trade restrictions. Thus, the political factor remains a key uncertain driver for oil and gas supplies in 2026.
Renewable Energy: Wind Records and Investments
The renewable energy sector continues to grow rapidly worldwide, setting new capacity records and attracting significant investments—even amid ongoing geopolitical instability. The year 2025 has been significant for "green" energy, demonstrating its resilience and investment appeal.
- The United Kingdom achieved a historic peak in wind power generation on December 5, producing 23,825 MW, which accounted for more than half of the country’s consumed power at that moment. This record was made possible by strong winter winds and the expansion of offshore wind farms.
- According to BloombergNEF, global investments in new renewable energy projects reached a record $386 billion in the first half of 2025. The majority of funds are being directed towards solar and wind generation, as well as energy storage systems needed for integrating renewable energy into the energy system.
- In the U.S., a federal court overturned a ban on the construction of new wind energy projects on federal lands and offshore, which had been enacted earlier in the year. This court ruling paves the way for the implementation of major offshore wind farms and supports states' plans to increase the share of clean energy.
- China maintains its global leadership in renewable energy: the total installed capacity of renewables in the country has surpassed 1.88 TW (about 56% of the total power capacity). The massive deployment of solar and wind plants, as well as storage systems, has allowed China to keep CO2 emissions at stable levels amid economic growth.
Nuclear Energy: The Return of Major Capacity
After a prolonged downturn in the global nuclear industry, signs of revival are emerging. Various countries are reassessing the role of nuclear generation as a stable low-carbon energy source, aiming to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and ensure the reliability of their energy systems.
- Japan is preparing for the partial restart of the largest nuclear power plant, Kashiwazaki-Kariwa. The energy company TEPCO has received approval from the Niigata Prefecture authorities and plans to launch Reactor No. 6, with a capacity of 1,360 MW, on January 20, 2026. This will be the first reactor brought back online by the company since the 2011 disaster. Full restoration of the 8.2-gigawatt plant is planned to occur in stages over several years.
- The Japanese government has announced support measures for the nuclear industry with the aim of at least doubling the share of nuclear generation in the country's energy balance by 2030. A system of government loans and guarantees is being introduced for reactor modernization; currently, 14 out of 33 reactors remaining after the Fukushima disaster have resumed operation.
- A return to nuclear energy is also being observed in other regions. In Europe, the Finnish reactor Olkiluoto-3 operated at full capacity in 2025, while France and the UK are investing in the construction of new nuclear plants. In the U.S., there are discussions about extending the lifespan of existing blocks and funding small modular reactor projects.
Coal Sector: Consumption Peak and Gradual Decline
The global coal market reached a historic peak in 2025, after which a trend reversal is expected. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal consumption increased by approximately 0.5% and reached about 8.85 billion tons in this year. However, no significant further growth is anticipated: rather, a gradual decline in coal demand is forecasted by the end of the decade, as renewables, nuclear, and natural gas progressively replace coal in power generation.
- In the U.S., coal consumption for electricity generation increased in 2025. This was facilitated by last year's spike in gas prices and a temporary administration directive to extend operations at certain coal-fired power plants that were previously slated for closure.
- China remains the largest consumer of coal, accounting for about 60% of the country's electricity generation. In 2025, coal demand in China stabilized; gradual reductions are expected by 2030, thanks to large-scale deployments of renewable capacity. Beijing's policy aims to achieve peak emissions by 2030, implying a reduced role for coal in the coming years.
Petroleum Products and Refining: High Margins at Year-End
By the end of 2025, the global petroleum products market exhibits high profitability for refineries. The decline in oil prices, combined with stable demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, has led to increased refining margins in many regions. Refiners are benefiting from the relative low cost of raw materials while still enjoying a healthy level of petroleum product consumption.
- Global indicative refining margins have risen to their highest levels in recent years. Significant growth in profitability is observed in the diesel segment, where demand remains high in transportation and industry.
- The construction of new refineries in Asia and the Middle East (e.g., major complexes in China and the Gulf countries) is increasing global refining capacity. However, the simultaneous closure of outdated facilities in Europe and North America helps maintain market balance for petroleum products, preventing oversupply and preserving profitability.
- In Russia, authorities extended the ban on gasoline and diesel fuel exports following the summer crisis to saturate the domestic market and reduce prices. These measures have stabilized the situation within Russia but have concurrently reduced diesel supply in the global market, contributing to maintaining high margins in Europe and Asia.
Corporate News: Deals and Strategies of Energy Companies
The end of the year is marked by significant corporate actions in the fuel and energy sector, reflecting companies' efforts to optimize asset portfolios and adapt to new market conditions. Oil and energy corporations are reassessing their strategies, focusing on enhancing the effectiveness of traditional businesses while investing in the transition to clean energy.
- BP announced the sale of 65% of its subsidiary Castrol (a lubricants manufacturer) to the American investment fund Stonepeak for $6 billion. The deal values the entire Castrol business at $10.1 billion; BP will retain a 35% stake in the new joint venture. The proceeds will be directed towards debt reduction and dividend payouts, aligning with the strategy to improve returns in the traditional oil segment.
- Despite sanctions, foreign partners maintain interest in Russian oil and gas projects. For instance, India's ONGC and Japan's SODECO have retained their stakes in the Sakhalin-1 project, while a preliminary agreement between ExxonMobil and Rosneft on compensation for past losses signals a willingness among major players to resume cooperation as soon as the political situation improves.
- The merger of technology and energy continues: American tech giant Alphabet (the parent company of Google) announced in December the acquisition of Intersect Power, focused on renewable energy and grid infrastructure projects (including supplying power to data centers), for $4.7 billion. This move will allow Alphabet to expedite the development of its own renewable-based generation and reduce dependence on overloaded power grids.
