Current News in the Oil and Gas Industry and Global Energy as of December 9, 2025: Oil, Gas, Coal, Renewable Energy, OPEC+ Policy, Sanction Risks, Demand in Asia, and the State of the Global Energy Market.
Global Oil Prices
On Tuesday, global oil prices remained under pressure, slightly below recent highs. Brent futures fell to approximately $62.9 per barrel, while WTI dropped to $59.2. Market participants are awaiting the decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve on interest rates set for December 9-10: markets estimate an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. A relaxation in monetary policy may boost oil demand; however, the prospects for a peaceful agreement regarding Ukraine and potential easing of sanctions are restraining price increases.
- Expectations of a rate cut by the U.S. Fed stimulate risk-taking and energy demand.
- Negotiations regarding Ukraine remain stagnant, preserving uncertainty about the future volume of Russian oil in the global market.
- OPEC+ decisions stabilize production by limiting short-term supply fluctuations.
Negotiations on Ukraine and New Sanctions
The slowdown in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine this week intensifies uncertainty in the energy market. Both Ukrainian and Russian parties have yet to reach substantial progress, with key disagreements concerning security guarantees and the status of disputed territories. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with EU leaders in London, while former U.S. President Donald Trump promoted his own peace plan, which could lead to a drastic increase in Russian oil supply if an agreement is reached.
- The G7 currency union and the European Union are discussing a total ban on maritime services for Russian tankers, replacing the current price cap.
- The Biden administration is ramping up pressure on Maduro's regime in Venezuela: strikes have been conducted against drug-trafficking vessels, and steps to change the government are being discussed.
- Independent Chinese refiners are increasing purchases of sanctioned Iranian and Russian crude, leveraging new quotas and price discounts.
OPEC+ and Production Quotas
In its latest meeting in early December, OPEC+ countries agreed to an annual evaluation of the production capacities of participants. This initiative aims to align quotas with actual production capabilities and bolster investor confidence in cartel agreements. Saudi representatives noted that the decisions taken stabilize the market and reward those who invest in increasing output.
- Capacity audits will begin in 2026 to establish baseline production levels for 2027.
- Nineteen OPEC+ countries will involve foreign consultants to assess their capacities; Russia, Iran, and Venezuela will utilize alternative methods due to U.S. sanctions.
- OPEC+ aims to account for the "actual gap" between quotas and current production levels in several countries.
Increasing Demand in Asia: India and China
India is exhibiting record demand for petroleum products. In November, domestic fuel consumption reached a six-month high, particularly driven by diesel sales. New Delhi is actively purchasing Russian oil at significant discounts, despite U.S. pressure. During a recent visit by President Putin to India, discussions regarding guarantees for consistent fuel supply took place; however, local refiners are cautiously diversifying imports through non-Russian channels. This surge in demand reflects Asia's economic revival as it emerges from the pandemic.
- Diesel imports to India rose by 12% month-on-month, with overall demand exceeding last year's levels by approximately 3%. State-owned refineries have planned loadings from alternative sources in January.
- China is increasing its coal imports for the heating season: in November, purchases rose compared to October but remain below last year's volumes. Strategic reserves ensure fuel availability for 35 days.
- Given record energy consumption this winter, China will continue to rely on coal generation and fuel imports due to production constraints in its overcapacity reduction campaign.
Natural Gas and Electricity Sector
Natural gas prices in Europe have fallen to their lowest levels in nearly a year and a half, driven by mild weather, record LNG supplies from the U.S., and expectations of easing sanctions. January TTF futures are trading at around $335-$340 per thousand cubic meters, and European underground gas storage (UGS) is stabilized above 70% capacity. In the U.S., cold weather has led to a sharp rise in prices in the Northeast region: wholesale prices at Algonquin have exceeded $20/MMBtu, prompting utilities to revert to coal.
- Europe: Mild December and abundance of LNG keep prices low, reducing risks of fuel shortages for the heating season.
- U.S.: Record cold weather in northeastern states drives local prices up and increases demand for coal generation.
- Power Supply: The European Commission is preparing a centralized plan to modernize cross-border electricity networks to alleviate bottlenecks and reduce electricity costs.
- Increased electricity demand (including due to data centers and AI) encourages U.S. companies (NextEra, Exelon) to enter into new "green" contracts and invest in capacity.
Renewable Energy and Climate Policy
At the COP30 summit in Brazil, countries agreed to increase financial support for climate adaptation but refrained from imposing strict commitments to phase out fossil fuels. The central theme remains the contradiction between oil and gas interests and global emissions reduction goals. China and India are enhancing their influence in developing "green" technologies: China is promoting the export of solar panels and batteries, while India has launched new wind and solar parks. The conference concluded with ongoing debates about climate ambitions—formally adopting an adaptation program but without specific deadlines or control mechanisms.
- A key decision at COP30 is the tripling of climate adaptation funding from developed countries.
- The final documents lack a strict roadmap for reducing oil and gas production: hydrocarbon-producing countries maintain their positions.
- Technologies: Green electronics manufacturers are ramping up production capacity. Wind and solar power plants continue to increase production while simultaneously investing in energy networks.
Trends in the Coal Market
Due to rising natural gas prices, some consumers are reverting to coal. In the U.S., coal extraction and production at coal-fired power plants are increasing: many companies are reducing their gas generation capacity in favor of cheaper coal. This results in higher coal emissions but ensures reliability of energy supply during peak winter demand.
- U.S.: Winter demand and record LNG exports are pushing gas prices higher, encouraging utilities to return to coal.
- Asia: China and India maintain high coal import purchases for electricity generation. Despite seasonal fluctuations, supply volumes remain significant.
- Prices: On the global market, coal has risen following a summer low, although the increase is capped by substantial coal stocks in Chinese warehouses.
Oil Refining and Petroleum Products
The petroleum products market remains tight: global gasoline and diesel prices have risen due to seasonal demand. Major refineries are operating at full capacity to compensate for supply constraints and meet internal needs. Potential lifting of sanctions on Russia could alter the balance of petroleum product supplies and adjust price dynamics in the fuel market. Refineries are preparing for possible changes in supply routes, increasing product inventories and reshaping logistics.
- Diesel demand remains high, especially in Asian countries and emerging markets, where economic activity is strengthening.
- European refineries are boosting fuel stocks and preparing alternative loading schemes in anticipation of possible revisions in sanctions restrictions.
