Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of December 1, 2025: Trends in the Oil Market, Gas Balance in Europe, Development of Renewable Energy Sources, Dynamics of the Coal Sector, and Prospects for Refineries. Analysis for Investors and Energy Companies.
Current events in the global energy market are unfolding under the pressure of oversupply and geopolitical uncertainty. Oil prices remain close to two-year lows amid weak demand, while European gas reserves approach record levels, ensuring stability during the heating season. Against this backdrop, global investors are actively channeling funds into green energy and infrastructure modernization, taking into account long-term trends toward a transition to clean energy. Below is an overview of key news in the oil, gas, and energy sectors as of December 1, 2025.
Oil Market: Supply and Demand Balance
- OPEC+ Output Increase: OPEC+ participants have agreed to a slight increase in quotas for December (approximately +137,000 barrels per day), while maintaining a pause on further increases in Q1 2026 due to concerns about market oversaturation. This supports a supply surplus and restrains significant price growth.
- Slowing Demand: The International Energy Agency notes weak global oil consumption dynamics. Demand is growing much slower than last year, coupled with inventory build-up (especially in the U.S.), applying downward pressure on prices.
- U.S. Stocks: U.S. commercial oil inventories continue to rise (Department of Energy reports show an increase last week), while the number of active drilling rigs remains close to historical lows. Meanwhile, U.S. production (13.8 million barrels per day in September) is breaking records, raising concerns about market oversupply.
- Geopolitical Context: Negotiations between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine regarding conflict resolution remain at the forefront for investors. Statements about readiness for peace have temporarily lowered oil prices (in anticipation of sanctions being lifted), but the lack of guarantees keeps uncertainty intact. Even in the case of a peace agreement, any lifting of restrictions on the export of Russian oil would be gradual, making its effect on global prices unlikely to be immediate.
Gas Market: Stock Levels and Regional Trends
- European Stocks: As of early December, European underground storage is filled to about 75–80% of total capacity, significantly exceeding average levels of previous years and providing a buffer for the cold season. This situation eliminates panic buying and sharp price spikes for gas.
- Prices and LNG: European gas prices (TTF) are maintained below €30/MWh — the lowest since the energy crisis began. The U.S. and other suppliers are actively increasing liquefied gas exports (in 2025, LNG imports in the EU doubled compared to the same period last year). Meanwhile, Russia continues to redirect gas eastward; supplies to China via the Power of Siberia are increasing, and Gazprom is boosting supplies to Turkey, compensating for the complete halt of transit through Ukraine.
- Route Changes: Europe continues to diversify its supply — new LNG terminals and inter-regional gas pipelines (through North Africa, Azerbaijan, etc.) are being built. Russia is seeking new routes and sales mechanisms: land routes to China are being considered, the expansion of LNG flows from Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG is accelerating, and new gas pipelines for southern routes are being discussed.
Electric Power and Renewable Energy: Investments and Innovations
- Record Growth in Green Generation: Many countries have broken historical records for electricity generation from wind and solar sources. Major wind and solar projects have been completed in Europe, the U.S., and China. Investors are putting record amounts into expanding clean energy and developing energy storage systems (lithium-ion and alternative batteries) to enhance grid flexibility with a high share of renewable sources.
- Climate Agenda: At the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, leaders agreed on annual investments of around $148 billion for modernizing power grids and energy storage solutions, as well as launching a global carbon trading system. The final declaration did not include direct calls for phasing out hydrocarbons, reflecting an attempt to consider the interests of fuel exporters and supporters of the green transition.
- Nuclear Power: Russia has announced a large-scale nuclear power plant development program — by 2042, an additional 38 power blocks (about 30 GW) are planned to be commissioned, raising the share of nuclear generation to a quarter of the energy balance. At the same time, China, the U.S., and several European countries are investing in new small modular reactors and exploring innovative nuclear technologies, supporting the role of nuclear power in ensuring grid stability.
Coal Sector: Demand and Prices
- Growth in Asia: China has entered the 2025/2026 heating season with record coal production — in October-November, electricity generation from coal plants exceeded last year's figures by 7-8%. However, mining restrictions in China (per "anti-inflation" measures) are leading to raw material shortages and rising domestic prices: at port terminals, coal quotations have increased by nearly 40% compared to this year's low.
- Europe and the World: In contrast to Asia, Europe and the U.S. continue to reduce coal consumption (in favor of gas and renewables). Some countries are systematically closing coal-fired power plants, reducing demand. According to World Bank estimates, global coal demand decreased by about 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 due to the rapid growth of green generation, although a resurgence in industrial growth could alter this dynamic.
- Prices and Trade: Limited production from major exporters (Indonesia, Australia) and growing demand in Asia support global coal prices. European traders are reducing purchases, but the market remains volatile; major players are already entering into long-term contracts for coal supplies in 2026, anticipating prices will continue to rise.
Refined Products and Refineries: Domestic Market and Exports
- Tax Incentives Abroad: At the end of November 2025, Russia enacted a law allowing oil companies to reclaim excise taxes for refining oil at foreign refineries under a "tolling" scheme. This mechanism applies to gasoline and diesel produced from Russian oil at foreign refineries (including Belarusian ones), stimulating processing abroad and increasing the export of refined products to Asia and Europe.
- Stabilization of the Domestic Market: After an autumn fuel shortage, the government imposed restrictions on gasoline and diesel exports and expanded damping instruments. By the end of November, domestic wholesale prices for automotive fuel began to decrease, which allowed the elimination of shortages at gas stations. This stabilizes retail prices and reduces inflationary pressure on the economy.
Russian Oil and Gas Sector: Finances and Infrastructure
- Financial Results: The total net profit of the largest Russian oil and gas companies fell almost by half (to about 2 trillion rubles) in the nine months of 2025, and the number of unprofitable enterprises sharply increased. This is attributed to the decline in the average export price of Urals (to ~$65–70 from $75–80 a year earlier), the strengthening of the ruble, and rising costs (insurance, logistics) in the context of sanctions.
- Gas Segment: Gazprom remains profitable due to high contract prices and market diversification. Despite the complete halt of transit through Ukraine, the company has increased supplies via the Power of Siberia and Turkish Stream. The government supports the sector through modernization programs for gas transportation infrastructure and the construction of new underground gas storage facilities.
- Oil Segment: Oil production in Russia is close to its maximum, but revenues are falling due to sanctions and market oversaturation. The launch of new projects is hampered by restrictions (sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil), prompting Gazprom Neft and Rosneft to redistribute capacities in favor of petrochemicals and exports to eastern markets, while domestic refineries operate at reduced capacity.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Impact on Energy Markets
- Diplomatic Negotiations: The energy market is keenly reacting to news regarding the negotiation process in Ukraine. While there have been no real shifts toward peace, local price reactions are limited to expectations of future changes. Investors understand that any agreement will only lead to a gradual easing of export restrictions, so fundamental supply and demand factors remain the primary influence on prices.
- International Diversification: Western countries continue to systematically reduce their dependence on Russian energy resources. Europe is increasing purchases from the U.S., the Middle East, and other regions, as well as expanding programs for green energy. The U.S. and its allies are ramping up their own oil and gas production to bolster energy security while simultaneously supporting sanctions against Russian oil and gas projects.
