Main News of the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of November 17, 2025: Sanctions Change Trade Flows, Cold Weather Affects Gas Supplies, Share of Renewable Energy Grows. Trend Analysis and Forecasts for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex as of November 17, 2025, are unfolding against a backdrop of contradictory trends, capturing the attention of investors and market participants. Geopolitical tensions remain high: the West is expanding sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector, forcing a reconfiguration of hydrocarbon trade flows. At the same time, some conflicts are showing signs of de-escalation – a ceasefire continues to hold in the Middle East, and the U.S. and China maintain a temporary trade truce, improving global demand forecasts. Oil prices have stabilized at moderate levels after a recent decline: North Sea Brent is trading around $63–65 per barrel, while American WTI is hovering near $59–61. These levels are significantly below summer peaks and about 10% lower than values a month ago, which reflects expectations of an oil surplus by the end of the year. Traders anticipate a scenario in which supply in Q4 will exceed demand, thereby restraining price growth. At the same time, factors persist that prevent prices from plummeting – the market is factoring in sanction risks and potential supply disruptions.
Oil Market: Surplus Persists, Export Flows Change
The global oil market continues to balance in a state of fragile equilibrium. By mid-November, oil prices have stabilized after falling during the autumn: North Sea Brent is trading around $63–65 per barrel, and American WTI is near $59–61. These levels are significantly lower than summer peaks and about 10% lower than month-ago values, reflecting expectations of an oil surplus by year-end. Traders are operating under a scenario where supply in Q4 will exceed demand, limiting upward price movement. Concurrently, factors are present that prevent prices from falling sharply – the market is accounting for sanction risks and potential supply interruptions.
- Production Growth Amid Slowing Demand. OPEC+ countries are on schedule to increase oil production (with December expected to see an increase of 137,000 barrels per day, followed by a pause until April). Outside the alliance, major producers such as the U.S., Brazil, and others have reached record levels of output, adding to supply. However, global oil consumption growth is slowing: recent forecasts indicate that global demand will increase by less than 0.8 million barrels per day in 2025 (compared to +2 million barrels per day in 2023) due to economic slowdown and energy-saving measures.
- Sanctions and Redistribution of Flows. New U.S. and U.K. sanctions against subsidiaries of major Russian oil companies (such as Rosneft, Lukoil, etc.) are coming into effect, complicating Russian oil exports. Moscow is forced to redirect supplies to alternative markets. Under pressure from Western partners, Indian refiners have indicated their readiness to significantly cut purchases of Russian oil starting from the end of November to comply with sanction restrictions. The potential loss of India as a key buyer may radically reshape global raw material flows, escalating competition for markets. Russian exporters are already offering raw materials at deeper discounts in an attempt to retain Asian clients.
- Geopolitical Risks Support Prices. Military conflicts continue to threaten the stability of energy supply. The confrontation surrounding Ukraine remains unresolved: in mid-November, a Ukrainian drone attack on the port of Novorossiysk damaged oil infrastructure, causing a temporary halt in shipments and triggering a price spike of over 2%. Tension in the Middle East has somewhat decreased due to the ceasefire, but the situation remains fragile. Such risks create a sort of "geopolitical premium" in the market, preventing prices from falling further.
Gas Market: Buffer and Test of Cold Weather
The situation on the gas market is defined by seasonal balancing between high stock levels and weather challenges. Europe is entering the heating season with underground storage filled to an average of 80–82% — significantly below the record high of 92% from a year ago, but still providing a substantial buffer. Thanks to a mild autumn, European gas prices previously dropped to comfortable lows: the TTF base futures recently fell to around €30 per MWh (about $10 per MMBtu), marking the lowest level since spring 2024. However, the anticipated cold spell is returning volatility to the market: with winter frost approaching, prices have rebounded from previous lows and begun to rise.
- High Stocks vs. Increased Consumption. Meteorologists are warning of a sharp drop in temperatures in Western Europe (5–7 °C below normal), which will significantly increase gas consumption for heating in the coming week. If winter proves harsh and prolonged, European stocks may deplete faster than usual, provoking a new surge in prices and necessitating increased gas imports.
- Role of LNG in the Balance. Liquefied natural gas remains a key source for meeting EU needs following the sharp reduction in pipeline supplies from Russia. LNG imports into Europe are staying high thanks to record exports from the U.S., Qatar, and other producers. Meanwhile, gas demand in Asia remains moderate: the slowdown in China’s economy and filled storage facilities in East Asia mean that this fall there has been virtually no competition between Europe and Asia for LNG. This balance in the global LNG market has helped keep European prices from sharp spikes.
Electric Power: Record Renewables and Reliability of Energy Systems
Global electricity markets are undergoing large-scale structural changes associated with the growth of renewable energy shares and the modernization of power grids. Throughout 2025, many countries have recorded record electricity generation volumes from renewables, gradually displacing coal generation. Analysts estimate that in the first half of 2025, global renewable generation surpassed generation from coal-fired power plants for the first time. In several developed countries, the share of solar and wind energy at certain times reaches 80–100% of consumption (during specific hours in Europe). Similar trends are observed in major economies in Asia (China, India) and North America (U.S., Canada), indicating successful progress in the global energy transition. However, such rapid growth of renewables presents new challenges for ensuring the stability of energy systems during the transition period.
- Reliability of Energy Supply. The variable nature of wind and solar generation requires accelerated development of energy storage systems and backup capacity. Gas and coal power plants are currently used to cover peak loads during winter hours, although their role is gradually decreasing. In countries with developed energy systems, it is expected that existing reserve capacity will be sufficient even during abnormal cold spells, although prices for electricity may rise during peak periods. Energy companies are actively investing in grid modernization and industrial storage systems to maintain reliable energy supply as the share of renewables increases.
- Government Policies and New Technologies. Governments around the world are supporting the transition to decarbonize the energy sector. New ambitious goals for renewable energy shares by 2030 have been set in the European Union; China and India are implementing large-scale programs for solar and wind power plants; in the U.S., updated clean energy incentives are being introduced. Concurrently, interest in "clean" nuclear and hydrogen technologies is growing as important elements of future energy systems. Thus, the energy sector is moving toward a more sustainable model: "green" capacity is increasing, infrastructure is being updated, and measures are being taken to maintain the stability of energy supply during the transition period.
Coal Sector: Demand at Peak, Surplus Pressures Prices
A turning point has emerged in the coal industry: global demand has stabilized around historical highs and is starting to gradually decline, while production remains high. Traditional industrial markets are feeling increasing pressure from environmental regulations and competition from cheaper renewables.
- Peak Consumption Achieved. Global coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record of ~8.8 billion tons in 2024, but growth halted in 2025. Global forecasts indicate a "plateau" phase during 2025–2026, followed by a decline in demand as climate policies tighten and renewable energy development accelerates.
- Surplus Supply and Falling Prices. Coal production remains at maximum levels, leading to excess supplies in the market. Global coal prices have dropped to their lowest values in years, diminishing the profitability of coal companies. Exporters with high costs (including some Russian enterprises) are facing particular difficulties. The market is reacting: many producers are forced to cut back on production and investments in an attempt to adapt to the new realities.
Refining and Fuel Market: Market Stabilization and Price Control
After the turbulence of early autumn, the global petroleum product market is showing signs of stabilization. The decline in oil prices, coupled with a seasonal reduction in fuel demand (following the end of the summer driving season), has allowed refineries to increase output and replenish gasoline and diesel stocks. In Europe and the U.S., wholesale fuel prices have retreated from September peaks, leading to a moderate decrease in consumer fuel costs. The situation in the domestic market of Russia, which experienced a severe gasoline shortage in September, has also normalized thanks to emergency measures taken by the authorities.
- Crisis Measures in Russia. The Russian government has temporarily banned the export of gasoline and diesel fuel while increasing subsidies to refiners to direct more resources towards the domestic market. These steps have rapidly eliminated shortages: fuel production has returned to previous levels, gas stations are supplied, and wholesale prices are decreasing. Authorities have announced plans to gradually lift export restrictions as stability in the market solidifies.
- Global Stabilization of Fuel Prices. In the autumn, the global petroleum products market received a respite. Increased exports of gasoline and diesel from OPEC and Asian countries partially compensated for missing volumes from Russia, and seasonal declines in consumption allowed for fuel reserves to be replenished. Prices for gasoline and diesel in key regions have returned to early summer levels: in Europe and the U.S., fuel has noticeably decreased compared to September's highs. It is expected that during winter, consumption of diesel and heating fuel will traditionally rise, but with stable oil prices, sharp fluctuations in petroleum product prices are not anticipated.
