Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, December 19, 2025: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Refineries, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market
By the end of December, significant changes are observed in the global fuel and energy complex (FEC). The combination of multi-year price lows for raw materials and geopolitical shifts creates an ambiguous backdrop, attracting attention from investors and market participants. On one hand, oil is trading at its lowest levels in recent years, driven by expectations of oversupply and signals of progress in resolving the conflict in Eastern Europe. On the other hand, gas prices in Europe continue to decline even amidst winter cold due to record liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments. Simultaneously, global coal demand reached its peak in 2025 and is close to beginning a sustainable decline as the energy transition accelerates.
In this context, governments and companies are adapting their strategies. Some are making efforts to ease sanctions-related confrontations and stabilize supplies, while others are ramping up investments in both the oil and gas sectors and green energy. Below is a detailed overview of key events and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of the current date.
Oil and Oil Products
The global oil market remains under pressure, with prices close to multi-year lows. The Brent crude is hovering around $60 per barrel (occasionally dipping below this psychological threshold), while American WTI is trading around $55 – marking the lowest levels since 2020. Key factors influencing the decline in oil prices include:
- Expected Supply Surplus: A surplus of production over demand is projected for 2026. Non-OPEC countries (primarily the US and Brazil) have ramped up production to record levels. Meanwhile, the pace of global demand growth is slowing; industry forecasts indicate that demand increased by about +0.7 million barrels per day in 2025 (compared to over +2 million in 2023), leading to inventory accumulation and putting downward pressure on prices.
- Hopes for Peace in Ukraine: Progress in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has created expectations for a partial lifting of sanctions and a return of some Russian crude exports to the market. The prospect of a ceasefire has bolstered forecasts for increased supply, further contributing to the decline in oil prices.
- OPEC+ Policy: After several months of gradually increasing production quotas, the OPEC+ alliance has decided to halt further increases in the first quarter of 2026. The cartel is signaling caution amidst the risk of market saturation and its readiness to adjust production if necessary, although no plans for unannounced actions have been officially declared.
Influenced by these factors, oil prices have significantly decreased compared to the beginning of the year. There is a probability that Brent and WTI will end 2025 at minimal levels since mid-2020. The drop in raw material prices has already reflected on the oil product market: gasoline and diesel have become cheaper in most regions. In the US, retail gasoline prices have dropped ahead of the holiday season in almost all states, reducing consumer spending. European refiners, having switched to alternative raw materials instead of Russian oil, have stable supplies. Global refineries maintain a high level of processing, benefiting from cheaper oil, although the demand for fuel remains moderate. The refining margin is generally stable; there is no shortage of gasoline or diesel on the global market.
Gas Market and LNG
A paradoxical situation is developing in the gas market: despite an early and cold winter, natural gas prices in Europe continue to decline. Dutch TTF hub prices have dropped to below €30 per MWh – the lowest level since spring 2024, nearly 90% lower than the peak crisis levels of 2022 and approximately 45% below the prices at the beginning of the year. The primary reason is the unprecedented influx of liquefied natural gas, which compensates for the decrease in pipeline supplies from Russia. Gas storage facilities in the European Union are about 75% full, which, although lower than the average long-term levels for December, together with record LNG imports, ensures sufficient resources for stable prices even in cold weather.
- Europe: High volumes of LNG imports have reduced gas prices despite increased consumption during the heating season. In 2025, more than half of European LNG imports were provided by suppliers from the US, redirecting cargoes from Asian markets. This has led to a noticeable narrowing of the spread between European prices and lower American gas prices.
- USA: In North America, on the contrary, gas futures rose against forecasts of anomalously cold temperatures. At the Henry Hub, prices rose above $5 per MMBtu due to the threat of a polar vortex and the associated spike in heating demand. However, US domestic gas production remains high, which curbs price increases as weather normalizes.
- Asia: The Asian gas market is relatively balanced by the end of the year. Demand in key countries (China, South Korea, Japan) has been moderate, leading to some additional LNG shipments being diverted to Europe. Prices at Asian hubs, such as JKM, remained stable and avoided sharp spikes, as the competition for cargo between Europe and Asia has weakened compared to the situation in 2022.
As a result, the global gas market is entering winter in a much more confident state than a year ago. The available reserves and flexible import supplies are sufficient to cover needs even during periods of severe cold. The key role is played by the maneuverability of the LNG market: tankers are rapidly redirected in favor of Europe, smoothing regional imbalances. If the temperature during this winter does not deviate from average long-term values, the pricing situation for gas consumers will remain favorable.
Coal Sector
The traditional coal sector reached a historic peak in consumption in 2025, but prospects indicate an imminent slowdown. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal consumption rose by approximately 0.5% – reaching a record 8.85 billion tons. Coal remains the largest source of electricity generation globally, but its share is expected to gradually decline: analysts predict coal demand will plateau with a subsequent decline by 2030 due to the expansion of renewable energy and nuclear generation. Regional dynamics, however, vary:
- India: Coal consumption has decreased (for only the third time in the last 50 years) due to an exceptionally strong monsoon season. Abundant rains increased hydroelectric generation and reduced demand for electricity from coal-fired plants.
- USA: In contrast, coal use has increased. This was driven by high natural gas prices in the first half of the year and political support for the industry. The new presidential administration in Washington has suspended the phase-out of several coal-fired power plants, temporarily boosting coal demand for generation.
- China: The world’s largest coal consumer maintained its usage at last year's levels. China burns 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined; however, a gradual decline in consumption is expected by the end of the decade as colossal capacities in wind, solar, and nuclear energy are commissioned.
Thus, 2025 is likely to be the peak year for the coal industry. In the future, increasing competition from gas (where feasible) and particularly renewable sources will push coal out of the energy balance of many countries. Nevertheless, in the short term, coal remains in demand in developing Asian economies where energy consumption growth is still outpacing the construction of new clean capacities.
Electricity and Renewable Energy
The electricity sector continues to transform under the influence of climate agendas and fuel price fluctuations. In 2025, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in global electricity generation reached new heights: many countries have introduced record capacities of solar and wind power plants. For instance, China has aggressively expanded solar generation, while new offshore wind farms and large photovoltaic projects have been commissioned in Europe and the US, driven by government support and private investment. By the end of the year, global investments in "green" energy remain high, closely approaching the volumes of investments in fossil fuels.
The rapid growth of RES, however, poses a challenge to the stability of energy systems. This winter in Europe, the factor of variable weather manifested itself: periods of low wind and short daylight increased the load on traditional generation. At the beginning of the season, EU countries had to temporarily increase gas and coal generation due to an anticyclone that led to a drop in output from wind farms, causing electricity prices to rise in certain regions. Nevertheless, thanks to the growth in RES capacities and a significant share of gas in the balance, serious supply issues were avoided. States and energy companies are also actively investing in energy storage systems and grid modernization to smooth peak loads and integrate renewable energy.
Countries' climate commitments continue to set the direction for the industry's development. At the recent global climate summit (COP30) in Brazil, calls were made to accelerate the energy transition. Several countries agreed to triple the introduction of RES capacities by 2030 and achieve a substantial increase in energy efficiency. Additionally, there is a resurgence of interest in nuclear energy in many regions: new nuclear plants are being built, and the lifespan of existing facilities is being extended to ensure baseload generation with no emissions. Overall, the electricity sector is moving towards a cleaner and more sustainable future, although the transition period requires a delicate balance between supply reliability and environmental goals.
Geopolitics and Sanctions
Geopolitical factors continue to exert a serious influence on global energy markets. Central to this is the conflict in Eastern Europe and associated restrictions:
- Peace Negotiations: December witnessed the most significant progress in peace dialogue over Ukraine since the onset of the conflict. The US expressed readiness to provide Kyiv with security guarantees similar to NATO's, while European mediators noted a constructive development in negotiations. Hopes for reaching a ceasefire have increased; however, Moscow has stated it will not agree to territorial concessions. Rising optimism regarding a possible cessation of hostilities has sparked discussions about the potential for a partial lifting of oil and gas sanctions against Russia in the future.
- Sanction Pressure: Concurrently, Western countries indicate their readiness to intensify pressure if the peace process stalls. Washington has prepared another package of restrictions against the Russian energy sector, which may be introduced in the event of a breakdown in negotiations. Previously, in the autumn, the US and UK expanded sanctions against oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, complicating their ability to attract investments and access technologies.
- Infrastructure Risks: Ongoing combat operations and sabotage continue to threaten energy facilities. The Ukrainian side has recently intensified drone strikes on oil infrastructure deep within Russian territory. Specifically, there were reports of fires at refineries in Krasnodar Krai and on the Volga due to drone strikes. While these incidents minimally reduce the overall level of fuel supply locally, they underscore the persistent military risks for the industry until a durable peace is achieved.
- Venezuela: In Latin America, geopolitics also affects the oil market. Following a partial easing of the sanctions regime against Venezuela last autumn, the US has tightened control over compliance with the terms of the deal. In December, an incident occurred involving the detention of a tanker carrying Venezuelan oil over suspected license violations. State-owned company PDVSA faced demands from buyers to increase discounts and renegotiate supply terms. This has complicated Venezuela's efforts to boost exports, despite the recent US authorization to temporarily increase production in exchange for political concessions from Caracas.
Overall, the sanctions standoff between Russia and the West, along with other international disagreements, continues to introduce uncertainty into the global FEC. Investors are closely monitoring political news, as any changes – from breakthroughs in peace negotiations to the introduction of new restrictions – could significantly impact oil, gas, and other energy prices.
Corporate News and Projects
Major energy companies and infrastructure projects around the world are concluding the year with a series of important events and decisions:
- Aramco Ventures into the Indian Market: Saudi Aramco has revived plans to invest in a large refining complex in India. The company is close to acquiring a stake in the West Coast Refinery project, aiming to establish a foothold in the rapidly growing Indian market and secure long-term sales channels for its oil.
- New Project in Guyana: A consortium led by ExxonMobil has approved the development of another major offshore field in Guyana, targeting production start-up by 2028. Oil production in Guyana continues to grow rapidly, strengthening the country's position as one of the most dynamically developing new oil producers.
- Record Wind Farm in the North Sea: The world's largest offshore wind farm, Dogger Bank, has been completed in the North Sea, boasting a total capacity of 3.6 GW. The project has been realized by a consortium of European energy companies and can provide electricity to up to 6 million households in the UK. This milestone marks a significant advancement in renewable energy development and showcases the potential for large-scale "green" projects.
Overall, players in the oil and gas and energy sectors are adapting to the new market reality. Some are reassessing their asset portfolios considering geopolitical risks and changing circumstances (like Aramco exploring new markets), while others are seizing favorable opportunities to increase production and carry out projects (like ExxonMobil and its partners in Guyana). Simultaneously, investments continue in both traditional oil and gas areas and in the energy transition – from wind energy to hydrogen. The industry faces the challenge of balancing immediate profitability with long-term decarbonization goals, and this balance is defining the key strategic decisions of companies as they approach 2026.
