Oil and Gas and Energy Sector News for Friday, January 23, 2026: Global Oil and Gas Market, Power Generation, Renewable Energy, Coal, Oil Products, Key Trends, and Events in the Global Energy Sector.
The global fuel and energy sector (FEC) market is witnessing a revival as of January 23, 2026. Oil prices are experiencing an upward trend due to new data and events, while gas prices in Europe are rising sharply owing to anomalous cold weather, and the energy sector is recording significant changes. Key focal points include Venezuela's return to the oil market, the price surge of gas in the EU, as well as records and trends in electricity generation. Below is an overview of the major events in the oil, gas, and energy sector relevant to investors and stakeholders in the global energy market.
Global Oil Market: Price Trend and Supplies
Global oil prices continued their moderate increase. March futures for Brent are hovering around $65 per barrel following the release of U.S. inventory data and amid limited supplies. Although oil prices experienced an approximate 18% decline in 2025 due to concerns of market oversaturation, the new year is showing relative stabilization. Key OPEC+ countries are maintaining agreements to keep production limited: earlier, eight leading exporters within the alliance decided to freeze planned increases in oil production for the first quarter of 2026. This move aims to uphold the balance of supply and demand following a period of declining prices.
Conflicting factors are acting on the oil market. On one hand, there has been an unplanned reduction in supply: in Kazakhstan, production at the largest field, **Tengiz**, has been temporarily halted due to a technical incident. The operator declared force majeure, canceling the shipment of approximately 700,000 tons of oil in January-February. This implies a temporary decrease in the export of Caspian oil through the CPC pipeline, offering slight price support. On the other hand, new sources of raw material are emerging in the market: the U.S. is effectively easing oil sanctions against Venezuela. American company Valero Energy purchased its first batch of Venezuelan oil – the first in years – under agreements between Washington and Caracas. Venezuela's return to the global oil market after an extended hiatus increases the availability of crude and could enhance market competition in the long run.
Overall, the oil market is balancing between OPEC+'s efforts to support prices and the influx of additional volumes of oil. Despite sanctions pressure, global producers are maintaining high production levels. For instance, oil production in Russia in 2025 remained at the previous year's level (approximately 516 million tons), indicating the flexibility of oil companies in redirecting export flows. While oil prices are held within a relatively narrow range, investors in oil companies are assessing risks: on one hand, limited supply and geopolitical factors bolster quotes, while on the other, potential demand slowdown and new supply sources (Venezuela, Guyana, increased production in Brazil, etc.) may restrict price growth.
Gas Market: European Prices Skyrocket Due to Cold Weather
The European gas market is experiencing a significant price surge this winter. Anomalous cold and energy factors have caused spot gas prices in the EU to approach the psychological threshold of $500 per thousand cubic meters. At the Dutch hub TTF, gas prices soared more than 10% in just one day, reaching their highest level since mid-2025. The primary reason is extreme cold: the current January is one of the coldest in the last 15 years in Europe, several degrees colder than normal. The frosty weather and clear, windless conditions have curtailed wind energy production, increasing the burden on gas-fired power plants and the energy system.
Simultaneously, gas reserves in European storage facilities are rapidly depleting. The average filling level of European underground gas storage is already around 48-49%, which is nearly 15 percentage points below the multi-year average for this time of the season. In other words, gas from storage is being consumed faster than usual – estimates suggest that the extraction timeline is ahead of previous years by approximately a month. If cold weather persists, there is a risk that by the end of winter gas storage facilities could be close to minimum levels, thereby increasing market volatility.
- Supply Constraints: Since the beginning of 2025, Europe has lost transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, leading to a reduction in pipeline supplies. The deficit has been attempted to be compensated by increasing the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
- Record LNG Imports: In 2025, European countries purchased around 109 million tons of LNG (approximately 142 billion cubic meters post-regasification)—28% more than the previous year. In January 2026, LNG imports may reach a record 10 million tons (+24% year-on-year), despite terminal capacities being utilized only halfway. This indicates that infrastructure still has the capacity to increase LNG intake.
- System Load: High gas extraction for heating and electricity generation, coupled with reduced wind generation, has exposed vulnerabilities in the energy system. European energy companies are compelled to burn more gas to maintain electricity supply, relying on storage facilities as the most flexible reserve. Concurrently, gas prices have risen in the U.S.—one of the key LNG suppliers—slightly limiting the ability to quickly ramp up exports of American fuel to Europe.
Looking ahead, the situation in the gas market will depend on weather conditions and global supply. If February and March are milder, price increases may halt and allow Europe to stabilize its stored reserves. However, the current surge creates a "long tail" effect: the EU will need to replenish depleted storage at an accelerated pace in summer 2026. This implies sustained high demand for LNG in the global market for at least the coming months. Analysts also note that in the mid-term, new large LNG projects in North America and the Middle East are expected to enter the market, potentially alleviating price pressures by 2027. For now, however, European gas consumers are entering the end of the winter season with heightened scarcity risks, and the market requires flexibility and additional fuel volumes for stabilization.
Electric Power and Renewable Energy: Record Share and Decline of Coal
In global electricity generation, the transition to clean sources continues to gain traction. Renewable energy sources (RES) have set a new record in the European energy balance: by the end of 2025, the combined share of wind and solar generation in the European Union exceeded the share of electricity generated from fossil fuels for the first time. Wind and solar power plants accounted for approximately 30% of electricity generation in the EU, compared to coal and gas stations, which contributed around 29%. This symbolic turning point signifies that green energy in Europe has ascended to a leading position, surpassing fossil sources in generation.
Positive shifts are not confined to Europe. For the first time in half a century, simultaneous declines in electricity generation from coal have been recorded in the two largest developing economies—China and India. According to industry analysis, in 2025, coal-fired power plants in China and India produced less energy than in the previous year, made possible by a record increase in RES capacities. The growth of solar and wind farms in these countries was sufficient to cover the increased electricity demand, thereby reducing the reliance on coal. This moment is considered historic: the synchronous decline of coal generation in the two largest coal-importing countries signals the onset of structural changes in the Asian energy sector.
- Record Investments: Global energy companies and investors are channeling significant funds into the development of RES. Worldwide, there is a continued buildup of solar and wind energy capacities, supported by government initiatives and private capital. Many oil and gas corporations have announced diversification plans, investing in solar and wind projects, energy storage, and hydrogen production.
- Coal Sector Contraction: Although demand for coal temporarily remains high in certain regions (e.g., Southeast Asia), a global trend toward its decrease is observable. G7 countries and many developing economies are setting a course for a phased reduction of coal generation over the coming decades. The diminishing role of coal contributes to emission reductions and stimulates demand for gas and RES as less carbon-intensive sources.
- Electricity Sector Challenges: The rising share of renewable generation necessitates the modernization of energy systems. For instance, the recent cold spell revealed that when wind is absent, the burden shifts to traditional generation, particularly gas. To ensure the stability of electricity supply, countries are investing in energy storage systems, the development of "smart" grids, and backup capacities. This improves the reliability of power supply amid the volatility of renewable sources.
In summary, the energy transition continues to deepen. The year 2025 was one of the warmest on record and also saw a record increase in clean energy. This confirms the inseparable link between climate goals and the restructuring of the energy sector. For the electricity market, the global trend is clear: the share of RES will continue to rise, while traditional types of generation (coal, and in the future gas) will gradually be assigned a shrinking niche. Energy investors are taking these changes into account, betting on sustainable and eco-friendly projects, which also impacts the capitalization of companies in the sector.
Energy Geopolitics and Sanctions: New Strikes and Adaptation
Geopolitical factors continue to exert powerful influence on oil and gas markets. In 2026, sanction pressure on traditional energy exporters is expanding, while some countries are experiencing localized relaxations. In the U.S., discussions are underway regarding a new sanctions package targeting the Russian fuel and energy sector: the so-called "Sanctions Against Russia Act – 2025" envisages the introduction of 500% tariffs on trade in Russian-origin oil, gas, coal, oil products, and uranium for any countries continuing such transactions. The Donald Trump administration suspended this bill last year; however, signals emerged in January 2026 regarding a willingness to revisit it—with the stipulation that such stringent measures would be applied only if necessary. Nevertheless, even the threat of such tariffs is already influencing the behavior of buyers of Russian raw materials.
India, which had become the largest importer of Russian oil, has significantly reduced its purchases. According to market data, supplies of Russian oil to Indian refineries at the beginning of 2026 dropped nearly by half compared to peak volumes from mid-2025. This occurred after Washington intensified pressure: in August 2025, the U.S. raised tariffs on Indian goods by 25%, and in October introduced sanctions against several large Russian energy companies. As a result, Indian refineries diversified their sources of raw materials, reducing Russia's share. Similar actions are being taken by several other countries: fearing secondary sanctions, they are scaling back cooperation with Moscow in the oil and gas sector. Many western fuel companies and traders have previously exited the Russian market altogether, forcing Russia to redirect exports to friendly jurisdictions (China, Turkey, the Middle East, Africa) and offer discounts on its oil.
The European Union continues to adhere to a sanctions policy in the energy sector. In implementing the oil embargo and price cap, the EU has intensified monitoring of compliance with restrictions. For instance, on January 22, France detained a tanker carrying Russian oil in the Mediterranean Sea, suspecting it of violating sanction requirements. According to President Emmanuel Macron, the operation was conducted in conjunction with allies and demonstrates Europe's determination to combat circumvention of imposed measures. The detained vessel was redirected to port for investigations; this precedent signals to the market that European regulators will strictly curb unauthorized export of oil and oil products from Russia.
Simultaneously, sanction confrontations on a global scale are taking on a selective character. Alongside a tough stance on Russian energy resources, Washington is making overtures to other players: as noted, the U.S. has eased restrictions regarding Venezuela, partially allowing the export of Venezuelan oil to the global market in exchange for political concessions. Furthermore, in January 2026, the American administration announced the introduction of an additional 25% tariff for countries that continue cooperation with Iran in the oil and gas sphere—as part of a strategy to exert pressure on Tehran. Thus, the geopolitical landscape is diverse: some supply channels are being closed, while others are opened. The energy markets are adapting to the new realities: alternative logistics chains are emerging, "shadow" fleets of tankers to circumvent restrictions are developing, and new trading partnerships are forming. In the short term, sanctions create uncertainty and regional supply imbalances— for instance, Europe and the U.S. are tightening control over Russian exports, while Asia benefits from discounts. However, in the long term, participants in the FEC market are seeking stability: even under sanctions, Russian oil exports remain close to pre-crisis levels, and global flows of oil and gas are gradually readjusting, reducing system vulnerability to political factors.
Market Outlook: Demand, Investments, and Energy Transition
Forecasts for the oil and gas sector in 2026 reflect cautious optimism. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for oil in 2026 is expected to reach approximately 104.8 million barrels per day—just 0.8% more than in 2025. The slowdown in growth is attributable to modest economic expansion and energy-saving measures. In developed countries, oil demand is stagnating or declining structurally: for instance, the consumption of oil products in Europe and Japan remains at multi-year lows, while in the U.S.—the largest consumer—the overall level of oil consumption is expected to remain close to 2025 figures. The primary growth in demand is shifting to developing economies in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, with China still leading. However, even in China and India, demand is growing less dynamically than previously anticipated, partially due to accelerated electrification and the penetration of RES.
On the supply side, however, a more substantial increase is anticipated. Non-OPEC+ producers are planning to ramp up production: by 2026, non-OPEC combined supplies could increase by more than 1 million barrels/day. Most of the new volume will come from projects in the Western Hemisphere. In Brazil, significant oil fields on the pre-salt shelf will continue to come online, adding about 0.2 million barrels/day to the country’s output (up to 4 million barrels/day) according to EIA forecasts. New players are also entering the arena: Guyana is ramping up exports from its recently developed offshore blocks; Canada is increasing oil production from tar sands; and the U.S. shale sector is remaining resilient even with moderate oil prices due to increased efficiency and decreased costs. These factors will likely lead the global oil market to face pressure from surplus supply. Major investment banks have already adjusted their price forecasts: for instance, Goldman Sachs expects the average annual price of Brent in 2026 to be about $56 per barrel, while analysts at JPMorgan forecast a range of $57-58 per barrel for Brent in 2026-2027. This is significantly lower than the levels at the beginning of the year, indicating a probable shift in balance toward buyers unless new force majeure events occur.
The gas market in the medium term is also moving toward a state of abundance in supply. Industry reports indicate that significant liquefaction capacities will come online in the U.S., Qatar, and East Africa in 2026-2027. A wave of new LNG could create a situation in the gas market where buyers dictate terms—especially in Asia and Europe, where growth in gas demand is expected to slow due to high bases in previous years and climate policies. Experts believe that after the current winter price spike, gas quotes may experience some relaxation by late 2026: additional LNG volumes and inventory replenishment will lower the risk of shortages. Nevertheless, the gas market will remain volatile: the impact of weather anomalies, resource competition between Europe and Asia, and geopolitics (such as the situation regarding gas exports from the Eastern Mediterranean or Central Asia) will intermittently induce price fluctuations.
Investments in the energy sector remain at a high level, despite all transformations. Major oil and gas powers are declaring large-scale investments in the sector. For instance, Russia plans to invest around 4 trillion rubles in petrochemical development and oil refining by the end of the decade (as stated by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak). Similarly, Middle Eastern countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) are implementing mega-projects to expand refining capacities and LNG production, aiming to monetize resources before the peak of global demand. Concurrently, an increasing amount of funds is being directed toward clean energy: global investments in renewable projects, energy efficiency, and electric transport are at record high levels. Traditional oil and gas companies face a choice—either enhance returns from existing fields and refineries or pivot toward new energy markets. In practice, most energy holdings are balancing these tasks by investing in both oil and gas extraction as well as in low-carbon directions.
Thus, the beginning of 2026 presents a mixed picture for investors and participants in the FEC market. On one hand, the oil and gas sector continues to generate significant profits and remains the backbone of global energy supply—demand for oil and gas, while growing slowly, is approaching record levels in absolute terms. On the other, the structural shift toward clean energy sources is accelerating, gradually transforming the industry. Oil and gas markets will closely monitor the balance in the coming months: whether OPEC+ will have the resolve to prevent oversaturation, how quickly global LNG will meet new needs, and what steps major economies will take in energy policy. In 2026, industry uncertainty remains high, but it also creates new opportunities—from advantageous raw material purchases during price dips to investments in innovative energy projects. Market participants, whether oil and fuel companies or financial investors, are adapting to a new reality where business resilience is defined by the ability to respond to geopolitical challenges while simultaneously being prepared for the energy transition. Ultimately, the global fuel and energy sector enters 2026 in a state of fragile equilibrium, signaling the necessity for balanced strategic decisions to maintain stability and growth.
