Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for October 26, 2025: Fed and Bank of Japan Expectations, Big Tech Reports, Oil at Lows and Gold at Highs
Sunday, October 26, brings a relative calm to global markets; however, it is crucial for investors to remain vigilant as a new week approaches. The spotlight is on the upcoming decisions from key central banks (the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan), which may set the direction for global financial flows. Simultaneously, the third-quarter earnings season continues, with major US tech giants poised to release reports that could significantly impact market sentiment. The price dynamics of commodities remain contrasting: oil is holding at its lowest levels in months, while gold is setting new records, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets. The weekend provides market participants in Russian and European markets a moment to reassess strategies and prepare for a flurry of important events in the coming week.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- All day - Europe: Transition to winter time (clocks set back one hour).
- 18:30 - China: Cumulative profit of industrial enterprises (y/y, accumulated) for September.
Asia: Signals from China and Expectations in Japan
- China: Industrial profits from January to September are likely to remain negative, reflecting weak domestic demand and deflationary pressures. A lack of signs of recovery could prompt Beijing to implement new economic stimulus measures.
- Japan: The upcoming meeting of the Bank of Japan (at the end of next week) is causing investors to act cautiously. Rising inflation has heightened expectations for a potential rollback of ultra-loose policies. Any hint from the regulator regarding a rate hike or changes to bond yield control will impact the yen and the Nikkei 225 dynamics, which is why activity in Tokyo before the central bank's decision is expected to be subdued.
Central Banks and Global Policy: Fed, ECB, and Bank of Russia
- US Fed: At the meeting in early November, the market expects the current rate (~5.5%) to be maintained against the backdrop of slowing inflation and cooling US economic conditions. However, the rhetoric from the Fed is crucial: any hints from Jerome Powell regarding the future course—be it a prolonged pause or preparations for a rate cut in 2026—will significantly affect bond yields, the dollar exchange rate, and growth stock valuations.
- ECB: The European Central Bank signaled last week that the tightening cycle has peaked, keeping rates unchanged. Inflation in the Eurozone is still higher than target, so the ECB intends to maintain tight financial conditions. New data on GDP and prices will confirm or refute the justification for this pause: a stable slowdown in price pressure will support the ECB's decision, while an unexpected rise in inflation could rekindle talks about rate hikes.
- Russia: The Bank of Russia maintained the key interest rate at a high (double-digit) level on October 24, continuing its battle against inflation and supporting the ruble. For the Russian market, this means maintaining expensive credit, but it demonstrates the regulator's determination to curb price growth. Investors will incorporate the central bank's signal and fresh macro data (for example, on industry) into their forecasts for corporate earnings and rates.
Energy Markets and Commodities
- Oil: Oil prices remain under pressure. Brent is hovering around $65 per barrel, while WTI is near $60, at multi-month lows. Quotes are being pressured by expectations of rising supply and a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have lowered risk premiums. Concerns about a slowing global economy and weak demand are also limiting the growth potential. Should the downward trend continue, OPEC+ countries may discuss new production restrictions to stabilize the market.
- Gold: Gold is trading at historical highs, exceeding $4300 per ounce. The precious metal is benefiting from heightened demand as a "safe haven" amidst global uncertainty and expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy. A decline in bond yields and a weaker dollar further support price growth. Many investors are using gold to hedge risks in their portfolios.
Corporate Reports: Asia and Russia
- India: Conglomerate Reliance Industries reported approximately a 10% increase in net profit (y/y) for July–September. Strong results from its telecom and retail divisions offset volatility in the oil and gas segment, bolstering investor confidence in the company's diversified business.
- China and East Asia: In China, the corporate reporting season is gaining momentum, with major state banks and IT giants soon to present their third-quarter results. The market is anticipating signals regarding the financial sector's condition: an increase in non-performing loans or a slowdown in revenue among economic leaders will intensify concerns for China’s prospects. In Japan, many companies from the Nikkei 225 have exceeded forecasts for the half-year, supporting the upward trend in the market. New reports from industrial and tech corporations early in the week will reveal whether this positive momentum can be maintained.
- Russia: Major Russian issuers will release third-quarter reports closer to November. The periodic disclosure of operational metrics (production levels, extraction) from oil and gas, as well as metallurgy companies, has yet to produce surprises. The market is using this pause to prepare for key releases: results from blue-chip companies will clarify the influence of ruble depreciation and external factors on business.
Corporate Reports: USA and Europe
- USA: The American market will not receive new reports on Sunday, allowing Wall Street to take a breather before an eventful week ahead. Following an active start to the season (with results already released by major banks and initial IT companies), investors are shifting their focus to key releases in the coming days. The quarterly results of Big Tech are particularly noteworthy: Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, and Meta will report on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by Amazon on Thursday. These giants will largely set the tone for Nasdaq and S&P 500: strong earnings will enhance risk appetite, whereas disappointment from even one company may raise caution and prompt profit-taking in the technology sector.
- Europe: In Western Europe, October 26 is a holiday, resulting in a quiet corporate calendar. Starting Monday, a wave of releases from Euro Stoxx 50 leaders is expected. Investors will assess the fresh results from international bank HSBC and then the reports from industrial conglomerates and automakers for Q3. Several leading banks and insurers will present their numbers mid-week. An important question will be how high rates and economic downturns have affected company profits. A preponderance of positive surprises will support European indices, while disappointments may increase volatility among individual stocks and sectors.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: With no news on Sunday, Euro Stoxx 50 will orient itself to external factors at the start of the week. Investors are hopeful for favorable signals but remain aware that weak data from the US or China could temper growth.
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): On Monday, Tokyo will react to the weekend news. The Nikkei 225 has risen in recent months due to strong corporate reports and capital inflow. Unless sharp negative surprises occur (such as a spike in the yen or weak statistics from China), the ascending trend is expected to continue, although the upcoming meeting of the Bank of Japan may limit activity.
- MOEX (Russia): At the week's opening, the Russian market will balance external and internal factors. A positive external backdrop (rising metal prices, de-escalation of conflicts) will support stocks, while low oil prices and high central bank rates will limit growth, especially in the energy sector. The foundation for the Moscow Exchange remains relatively stable, but any fluctuations in commodities or news could swiftly adjust its dynamics.
Day’s Summary: What to Watch for Investors
- 1) Central Banks: Decisions from the Fed and the Bank of Japan in the coming days are key triggers for the markets. Any hint from the Fed regarding a change in direction (prolonged pause or preparations for a rate cut) will instantly reflect on bond yields, the dollar, and growth stocks. Similarly, signals about the winding down of ultra-loose policy from the Bank of Japan will provoke fluctuations in the yen and reassessments of Japanese assets.
- 2) Big Tech Reports: Quarterly results from giants like Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon could shift the focus from macroeconomic risks to corporate trends. It’s important to monitor not only the profits but also management forecasts. Strong reports from sector leaders will bolster Nasdaq and S&P 500, while significant disappointments from any company may enhance caution and provoke profit-taking within the technology segment.
- 3) Oil and Gold: Prolonged cheapening of oil has a dual impact. Cheap energy reduces costs and curbs inflation (a positive for commodity importers and the bond market), but it decreases revenues for oil and gas companies and exporting countries. For investors with commodity assets, it’s important to discern whether the current price decline is temporary or indicates a sustained drop in demand. Concurrently, record-high gold signals strong demand for protective instruments—this factor should be considered when balancing the portfolio between risky and safe assets.
- 4) Risk Management: It’s advisable to use the current pause to reassess the portfolio before potential volatility. Key events are on the horizon: central bank meetings, major company reports, and possible geopolitical news. By establishing limits for position fluctuations, adjusting stop-losses, and planning hedging strategies (gold, futures, currencies), investors can better protect their capital from unexpected market shocks.
