Global Steel Production Analysis for October 2025 Based on WSA Data with a Focus on Russia: Decline in China, Growth in the USA, and the Impact of Current Dynamics on Investments in the Metallurgical Sector
According to the World Steel Association, global steel production in October 2025 amounted to 143.3 million tons, a decrease of 5.9% compared to October 2024 figures. Year-to-date (January to October), the output dropped by 2.1% compared to the same period last year. Production reductions were observed in Asia and Europe, whereas North America displayed growth.
- China: 72.0 million tons (-12.1% YoY).
- India: 13.6 million tons (+5.9% YoY).
- USA: 7.0 million tons (+9.4% YoY).
- Japan: 6.9 million tons (-1.0% YoY).
- South Korea: 5.1 million tons (-5.8% YoY).
- Russia: 5.3 million tons (-6.2% YoY).
- Germany: 3.1 million tons (-3.0% YoY).
- Iran: 3.3 million tons (+12.0% YoY).
The data underscores the divergent dynamics: the largest producer, China, is experiencing a sharp decline, while the USA and Iran are showing double-digit growth. India continues to expand, while the European market, led by Germany, remains in negative territory.
WSA statistics encompass 70 countries, accounting for approximately 98% of global steel production.
The average capacity utilization rate in the steel industry remains low, reflecting an oversupply amid weak demand. The situation is aggravated by the overall slowdown in the global economy and investment demand.
China: Ongoing Decline in Production
Steel production in China in October reached 72.0 million tons, a 12.1% decrease from the previous year. This marks the most significant monthly decline in recent years. Contributing factors include weak demand for construction materials, stricter environmental regulations, and high production costs; many steel mills are operating at extremely low profitability. Despite government stimulus measures, steel production in China has decreased by approximately 3.9% year-on-year during the first ten months of 2025.
USA: Accelerated Production Growth
The United States achieved a steel production level of 7.0 million tons in October, a 9.4% increase from last year. This acceleration is attributed to a revival in domestic demand and multi-billion-dollar investments in infrastructure development. American steel producers also note improved demand from construction and automotive sectors. As a result, steel production in the USA increased by approximately 3% over the first ten months of 2025.
India and Other Asian Markets: Slowing Growth Rates
India, the second-largest global steel producer, continues to expand output but at moderate rates. In October, production reached 13.6 million tons, reflecting a 5.9% increase year-on-year; however, this signifies a slowdown in growth compared to previous months. Weak domestic demand and restrictive export measures are hindering the expansion of India's steel industry. Other Asian countries show a mixed picture: Japan reduced its steel output by 1.0%, while South Korea experienced a 5.8% decline. Overall, steel production in Asia and Oceania fell by more than 8% in October.
European Sector: Decline in Germany and Stagnation
The European steel market is under pressure: in October, production in EU countries decreased by approximately 3.5%. Germany, the largest producer in Europe, produced 3.1 million tons (-3.0% YoY). The German steel industry continues to suffer from weak domestic demand and reduced export orders. Production decreases are also observed in other industrial countries in the region, where overall output remains at low levels.
Middle East: Growth Driven by Iran
Amid global stagnation, Iran shows rapid growth: its production in October reached 3.3 million tons, up 12.0% from the previous year. This growth is linked to a recovery in domestic demand and expanded capacity following the easing of international sanctions. Increased production in Iran and neighboring countries supports overall output levels, despite declines in some other nations within the region.
Russia: Steady Decline in Production
In Russia, steel production in October amounted to 5.3 million tons, a 6.2% decrease compared to October 2024. The rate of decline accelerated compared to September (-3.8%). Under pressure from Western sanctions and reduced external demand, which limits access to traditional markets, Russian steel producers continue to cut back on production and exports. Shares of major steel companies are attempting to consolidate after declines, but risks remain high.
Conclusions for Investors
The WSA data indicates significant changes within the industry: the decline in China is restraining the global market, whereas production growth in the USA creates a favorable environment for American producers. These trends shape new opportunities and risks. Investors should consider regional diversification in their investments and the high volatility of the steel sector.
- Accounting for uncertainty in the Chinese market is essential: the sharp decline in production may trigger price fluctuations in commodity and stock markets.
- The increase in production volumes in the USA makes American producers more attractive for investments in the steel sector.
- European and Russian steelmakers continue to face restraining factors, which keeps their stocks within a zone of heightened uncertainty.
- Diversifying the investment portfolio across regions and companies in the metallurgical sector will help balance risks and capitalize on local growth trends.
- The oversupply in the steel market creates additional pressure on raw material prices (e.g., iron ore) and contributes to the accumulation of inventory levels, which must be considered in strategic planning.
