Latest News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sectors for Monday, January 12, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Sanctions, Geopolitics, and Key Global Energy Projects. Analytical Review for Investors and Market Participants.
Current events in the global fuel and energy complex on January 12, 2026, are capturing the attention of investors and market participants due to a combination of supply surplus and geopolitical shifts. The new year commenced with an unprecedented move by the United States regarding Venezuela— the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro, which could reshape oil supply routes. However, demand for energy resources remains sluggish, heightening concerns about market oversaturation.
The global oil market continues to exhibit declining prices under pressure from the supply surplus: total production exceeds demand, and a surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day is expected in the early months of 2026. Brent crude prices are hovering around $60 per barrel, approximately 15% lower than levels at the beginning of last year, reflecting a fragile balance between oversupply and geopolitical risks. The European gas market is confidently navigating the mid-winter period, with underground gas storage in the EU filled to over 60%. Mild weather in December and record shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are keeping prices at relatively low levels (around €28–30 per MWh, or $9–10 per MMBtu). Meanwhile, the global energy transition continues at a robust pace—with many countries recording new highs in electricity generation from renewable sources (RES) throughout 2025, although traditional resources are still needed to ensure the reliability of energy systems.
In Russia, following last year's spike in fuel prices, authorities are continuing manual regulation of the domestic oil product market—extended export restrictions and other measures are in place to normalize the situation. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of the current date.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus and Venezuelan Factor Weighing on Prices
Global oil prices at the beginning of 2026 remain under downward pressure from fundamental factors. After several months of gradual decline, prices accelerated their fall amid expectations of abundant supply. Total oil production notably increased over the past year: OPEC countries boosted exports, while non-OPEC production growth was even more substantial. As a result, the market entered 2026 with a surplus—estimates suggest that in the first half of the year there could be an oversupply of up to 3 million barrels per day, with demand growth slowing (about +1% per year versus the usual ~1.5%). Against this backdrop, the benchmark Brent fell to approximately $60 per barrel, while U.S. WTI dropped to around $57, marking a 15–20% decrease from year-ago levels.
Additional pressure on the market comes from the situation in Venezuela. The unexpected arrest of Nicolás Maduro by the U.S. in early January opened prospects for a potential easing of the American oil embargo against Caracas. Washington has already expressed its readiness to engage companies to restore Venezuela's oil industry and announced a deal to supply up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the U.S., effectively redirecting part of the exports that previously went to China. These developments have heightened expectations for increased global supply and triggered further price declines. Simultaneously, the surplus oil situation is prompting OPEC+ countries to consider next steps—despite a recent consensus to maintain current production quotas, key alliance members signal readiness to resume cuts if prices fall below comfortable levels. At this time, no new official agreements have been announced, and the market is closely monitoring the rhetoric from Saudi Arabia and its partners regarding potential price stabilization.
Gas Market: Comfortable Stocks in Europe Keep Prices in Check
In the gas market, the focus remains on the situation in Europe, which is experiencing winter much more calmly than during the peak energy crisis of 2022–2023. EU countries entered 2026 with underground gas storage filled to over 60%, significantly above historical average levels for mid-winter. Mild weather in December and record imports of liquefied natural gas have aided in reducing withdrawals from storage. As of early January, gas prices in Europe remain at relatively low levels, with the Dutch TTF index trading around €28–30 per MWh (about $9–10 per MMBtu). Although prices have risen slightly in recent weeks due to colder weather and seasonal demand increases, they are still significantly lower than the peak levels seen during the 2022–2023 crisis.
European consumers have compensated for the near-total cessation of pipeline gas supplies from Russia with unprecedented increases in LNG purchases. In 2025, LNG imports into Europe rose by approximately 25% compared to 2024, reaching a record ~127 million tons—with the bulk of additional volumes coming from the U.S., Qatar, and African countries. The commissioning of new floating LNG terminals in Germany and other EU countries has expanded capacity and bolstered the region's energy security. Forecasts suggest that the EU will conclude the current heating season with substantial reserves (approximately 35–40% storage capacity by spring), instilling confidence in the resilience of the gas market. In the Asian market, LNG prices remain somewhat higher than in Europe, with the Asian JKM index exceeding $10 per MMBtu; however, the overall global gas market is in a state of relative equilibrium thanks to increased supply and moderate demand.
Geopolitics: Venezuela Under U.S. Control, OPEC+ Disagreements, and New Sanction Risks
Geopolitical factors are once again exerting significant influence on the energy landscape. Two high-profile events have taken precedence. First, a severe political crisis has unfolded in Venezuela: the U.S. announced on January 3 the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro and its intention to assume control of the country until a transitional government is formed. President Donald Trump stated that American oil companies will be attracted to restore Venezuela's dilapidated oil infrastructure and increase production. Investors reacted to these moves without panic: although Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves in the world, its current production is minimal, and even with an influx of investment, supply growth will take years. Second, internal disagreements within OPEC+ have surfaced: Saudi Arabia and the UAE have entered a sharp conflict (amid events in Yemen), leading to the most serious split among allies in decades. Nevertheless, the January meeting of eight key OPEC+ countries proceeded without drama—participants unanimously supported maintaining current production quotas, demonstrating commitment to a shared strategy for market stability.
China, which has been the primary recipient of Venezuelan oil, has sharply condemned the U.S. actions, calling them “a gross interference” in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. Beijing has indicated that it will protect its energy interests: China is likely to ramp up oil purchases from Russia and Iran or take other steps to compensate for potential losses in Venezuelan volumes. The renewed escalation between leading powers heightens geopolitical risks for the market: investors fear that competition for resources will intensify and that political actions will add to price volatility.
Meanwhile, the sanctions confrontation between the West and Russia in the energy sector continues without significant changes. At the end of 2025, Moscow extended its ban on oil and oil product supplies to buyers complying with the G7/EU price cap until June 30, 2026, reaffirming its position of not recognizing the imposed restrictions. European sanctions against the Russian fuel and energy complex remain in place, and the export routes for Russian energy resources have been entirely redirected to markets in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. There is no significant easing of sanctions or breakthroughs in dialogue between Russia and Western nations—global markets must operate within a new paradigm divided by sanction barriers.
Additionally, Washington is discussing new radical pressure measures: a legislative proposal to impose a 500% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil. Such steps are aimed at further reducing Moscow's oil revenues and effectively punishing key importers of its crude (primarily India and China), which risks further exacerbating the sanctions confrontation.
Additional uncertainty is introduced by the situation in Iran. Since the end of last year, mass anti-government protests have continued there—the most serious challenge to the regime in recent years. The Trump administration has threatened a strong response if Iranian authorities use force against demonstrators; in response, Tehran's leadership exhibits inflexibility, limiting communication with the outside world. Currently, these events have no direct impact on Iranian oil export volumes, but the risk of escalation in the region raises market anxiety—participants are considering the likelihood of disruptions if the crisis deepens.
Asia: India and China Balance Between Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Faced with pressure from the West over cooperation with Russia (the U.S. has doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50% since August 2025), New Delhi firmly states that it does not intend to reduce imports of Russian oil and gas at the expense of its energy security. Russian suppliers are compelled to offer significant discounts on Urals oil (around $5 below Brent prices), allowing India to continue actively purchasing crude at favorable prices and even increase imports of oil products from Russia to meet rising demand. Simultaneously, the country is striving to reduce its long-term dependence on imports: in 2025, a national program was launched for exploring deepwater oil and gas fields, in which the state company ONGC began drilling in the Andaman Sea. By the end of the year, the discovery of the first natural gas field in this region was announced, instilling hope for the gradual strengthening of India's resource base. Additionally, despite external pressure, India and Russia expanded calculations in national currencies and joint projects in the oil and gas sector throughout 2025, demonstrating their commitment to partnership.
- China: The largest economy in Asia is also increasing energy resource purchases while enhancing its domestic production. Beijing has not joined the Western sanctions and has taken advantage of the situation to import oil and LNG from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela at reduced prices, remaining a leading buyer of Russian energy resources. According to Chinese customs, in 2024, the country imported approximately 212.8 million tons of crude oil and 246 billion cubic meters of natural gas—1.8% and 6.2% more than the previous year. In 2025, imports continued to grow but at a more moderate pace due to a high base. Simultaneously, Chinese authorities are encouraging the growth of domestic oil and gas production: from January to November 2025, national companies extracted approximately 1.5% more oil than in the same period the previous year and increased natural gas production by nearly 6%. However, these gains only partially cover consumption increases—China's economy still relies on imports for about 70% of its oil and 40% of its gas. The government is investing significant resources into developing fields and technologies to enhance oil recovery, but considering the massive scale of demand, China's dependence on external supplies will remain substantial. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers—India and China—will maintain a key role in global raw material markets, combining import security with the development of their resource bases.
Energy Transition: Record Growth of Renewables While Maintaining the Role of Traditional Generation
The global shift to clean energy is notably accelerating. In 2025, many countries set new records in electricity generation from renewable sources (solar, wind, etc.). For the first time in a year, Europe produced more electricity from solar and wind power than from coal and gas-fired power plants, reinforcing the trend toward gradual phasing out fossil fuels. In the U.S., the share of renewable energy also reached a historic high—over 30% of generation—while total output from wind and solar surpassed production at coal-fired stations for the first time. China, remaining the world leader in installed renewable capacity, is continuously commissioning dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind farms, consistently breaking records in "green" generation.
According to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 exceeded $3.3 trillion, with over half of these funds directed toward renewable energy projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems. Investment in clean energy may further increase in 2026 due to government support programs. For instance, in the U.S., around 35 GW of new solar power stations are planned for commissioning throughout the year—a record figure, accounting for almost half of all anticipated new generating capacity. Analysts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable energy could surpass coal in global electricity generation for the first time.
At the same time, energy systems still rely on traditional generation to maintain stability. The growth of solar and wind shares presents challenges for balancing the grid during hours when renewables do not generate sufficient power. Gas and even coal-fired power plants are still deployed to cover peak demand and reserve capacity. For example, last winter, in certain regions of Europe, it was necessary to temporarily ramp up coal-fired power generation during windless cold weather—despite the environmental costs. Governments in many countries are actively investing in energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage stations) and "smart" grids capable of flexibly managing load. These measures aim to enhance the reliability of energy supply as the share of renewables grows. Thus, while the energy transition reaches new heights, it requires a careful balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources: renewable generation sets records, but conventional power plants remain critically important for uninterrupted energy supply.
Coal: High Demand Supports Market Stability
Despite accelerated decarbonization efforts, the global coal market maintains significant consumption volumes and continues to be a crucial part of the global energy balance. Demand for coal remains high, primarily in Asia-Pacific countries, where economic growth and electricity needs sustain intensive use of this fuel. China— the world's largest consumer and producer of coal—in 2025 burned coal at nearly record levels. Production at Chinese mines exceeds 4 billion tons per year, covering a lion's share of domestic needs, but this is barely sufficient during peak load periods (e.g., hot summers with extensive use of air conditioning). India, possessing extensive coal reserves, is also increasing its usage: over 70% of the country's electricity is still generated from coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption is rising alongside the economy. Other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) continue to commission new coal-fired power plants to satisfy growing demand from the population and industry.
Global coal production and trade have adapted to persistently high demand. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—in recent years have increased production and export of thermal coal, which has helped keep prices relatively stable. After price peaks in 2022, thermal coal quotes have returned to more typical levels, recently fluctuating within a narrow range. For instance, the price of thermal coal in the European ARA hub is currently around $100 per ton, whereas two years ago it exceeded $300. Overall, the balance of supply and demand appears stable: consumers receive guaranteed fuel, and producers maintain steady sales at profitable prices. Although many countries are announcing plans to phase out coal for climate goals, in the coming 5–10 years, this energy resource will remain indispensable for supplying electricity to a significant portion of the population. Experts believe that in the upcoming decade, coal generation, especially in Asia, will retain a substantial role despite global decarbonization efforts. Thus, the coal sector is currently experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand is consistently high, prices are moderate, and the industry continues to serve as one of the pillars of global energy.
The Russian Fuel Market: State Regulation Stabilizes Fuel Prices
The internal fuel market in Russia continues to operate under emergency measures implemented to normalize prices following last year's fuel crisis.
- Extension of the export ban on fuel: The total ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel, imposed back in August 2025, has been repeatedly extended and remains in effect (at least until the end of February 2026) for all producers. This measure directs additional volumes—hundreds of thousands of tons of gasoline and diesel monthly—that were previously destined for export back to the domestic market.
- Partial resumption of supplies for large refineries: As the situation stabilizes, restrictions have been partially eased for vertically integrated oil companies. Since October, some large refineries have been allowed limited export shipments of fuel under government control. However, the export embargo still applies to independent traders, oil depots, and smaller refineries, preventing the leakage of scarce resources abroad.
- Control of distribution domestically: The government has intensified oversight of oil products movement in the domestic market. Oil companies are obliged to prioritize meeting domestic consumer needs and avoid the practice of speculative trading that previously inflated prices. Relevant agencies (Ministry of Energy, FAS in conjunction with the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange) are developing long-term measures—for example, establishing direct contracts between refineries and gas station networks, bypassing stock exchanges to eliminate unnecessary middlemen and smooth price fluctuations.
- Subsidies and price dampening mechanisms: The government continues to provide financial support to the sector. Budget subsidies and the reverse excise tax mechanism ("dampener") continue to compensate refiners for some of the lost export revenue. This encourages plants to direct a greater volume of gasoline and diesel to the domestic market without incurring losses due to lower domestic prices.
The combination of these measures has already yielded results: the fuel crisis has been kept under control. Despite record exchange prices during the summer of 2025, retail prices at gas stations have increased by only about 5% over the year (within inflation limits). Gas stations are adequately supplied with fuel, and implemented measures are gradually tempering the wholesale market.
The government has stated that it will continue to act preemptively: if necessary, restrictions on fuel exports will be extended into 2026, and in case of local disruptions, resources will be promptly directed from government reserves to problem regions. Monitoring of the situation continues at the highest level—authorities are ready to implement new mechanisms to guarantee stable fuel supply to the country and keep prices within acceptable limits for consumers. At the same time, representatives of the Ministry of Energy allow for the possibility that if stability is maintained, restrictions could be gradually lifted in the second half of 2026, although recent experience shows that the government will intervene swiftly to protect the internal market when necessary.
