Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Market: Oil, Gas, Electricity, and RES — Energy Sector News January 4, 2026

News from the Oil, Gas, and Energy Industry – Sunday, January 4, 2026: OPEC+ Maintains Production Policy; Sanctions Pressure Intensifies; Gas Market Stability; Acceleration of Energy Transition

The current events in the fuel and energy sector (FEC) as of January 4, 2026, attract investor attention due to a combination of market stability and geopolitical tension. The focus is on the meeting of key OPEC+ countries, where it was decided to maintain existing production quotas. This indicates that the global oil market continues to experience an oversupply, keeping Brent prices around $60 per barrel (almost 20% lower than a year ago, following the largest decline since 2020). The European gas market demonstrates relative resilience: even in the midst of winter, gas levels in EU underground storage remain above historical averages, which, together with record LNG imports, keeps gas prices at a moderate level. At the same time, the global energy transition is accelerating, with many countries setting new records for renewable generation and increasing investments in clean energy. However, geopolitical factors continue to introduce uncertainty: the sanctions standoff regarding energy exports not only persists but intensifies, leading to localized supply disruptions and altering trade routes. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.

Oil Market: OPEC+ Decisions and Price Pressure

• OPEC+ Policy: At its first meeting of 2026, the OPEC+ group decided to leave production unchanged, honoring its promise to suspend quota increases for Q1. In 2025, the alliance already increased total output by nearly 2.9 million barrels per day (about 3% of global demand), but the recent sharp price drop has compelled countries to act cautiously. Maintaining these restrictions is aimed at preventing further price declines, although opportunities for price appreciation are currently limited – the global market remains well supplied with oil.
• Oversupply: Analysts forecast that in 2026, oil supply will exceed demand by approximately 3-4 million barrels per day. High output levels in OPEC+ countries, along with record production in the US, Brazil, and Canada, have led to significant oil inventory build-ups. Onshore storage facilities are filled, and a fleet of tankers is transporting record volumes of oil, signaling market saturation. This exerts downward pressure on prices: Brent and WTI are trading in a narrow corridor around $60.
• Market Demand Factors: The global economy shows moderate growth, supporting global oil demand. A slight increase in consumption is expected, mainly from Asia and the Middle East, where industry and transportation are expanding. However, a slowdown in Europe and the tight monetary policy in the US are restraining demand growth. In China, the government's strategy to fill reserves smoothed price fluctuations last year: Beijing actively purchased falling oil for strategic reserves, which set a sort of "floor" for prices. In 2026, China has limited room to further increase reserves, making its import policy a decisive factor for the oil market.
• Geopolitics and Prices: The key uncertainty for the oil market remains geopolitics. The prospects for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine are still unclear; therefore, sanctions on Russian oil exports continue to be in place. Should progress occur within the year leading to sanctions being lifted, a return of significant Russian volumes to the market could exacerbate the oversupply and exert additional downward pressure on prices. For now, the maintenance of restrictions supports a certain balance, preventing prices from falling too low.

Gas Market: Stable Supplies and Price Comfort

• European Stocks: EU countries entered 2026 with high gas reserves. As of early January, Europe’s underground storage is filled to over 60%, slightly below record levels from a year ago. Thanks to a mild start to winter and energy-saving measures, the withdrawal of gas from storage is occurring at moderate rates. This creates a solid buffer for the remaining cold months and calms the market: exchange prices for gas are maintained in the range of ~$9-10 per million BTU (around €28-30 per MWh according to the TTF index), significantly lower than the crisis peaks of 2022.
• LNG Imports: To compensate for reduced pipeline supplies from Russia (by the end of 2025, Russian gas exports via pipelines to Europe fell by more than 40%), European countries have increased their purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In 2025, EU LNG imports grew by approximately 25%, primarily driven by supplies from the US and Qatar, as well as the commissioning of new terminals. The steady influx of LNG has allowed Europe to mitigate the effects of reduced Russian gas and diversify supply sources, enhancing energy security.
• The Asian Factor: Despite Europe’s focus on LNG, the balance in the global gas market also depends on demand from Asia. Last year, China and India increased gas imports to support industry and power generation. At the same time, trade frictions led China to cut purchases of US LNG (additional tariffs on energy imports from the US were imposed), redistributing some demand in favor of other suppliers. If Asian economies accelerate in 2026, competition between Europe and Asia for LNG shipments could intensify, potentially driving prices upward. However, at present, the situation appears balanced, and under normal weather conditions, experts expect relative stability to persist in the gas market.
• Future Strategy: The European Union aims to consolidate the progress made in moving away from Russian gas. The official goal is to end gas imports from Russia by 2028, which entails further expanding LNG infrastructure, developing alternative pipeline routes, and boosting domestic production/substitution. At the same time, governments are discussing extending storage filling targets for the coming years (at least 90% by October 1). These measures are designed to ensure resilience in the event of cold winters and market volatility in the future.

International Politics: Intensified Sanctions and New Risks

• Escalation in Venezuela: At the beginning of the year, a high-profile event occurred: the US launched a military action against the Venezuelan leadership. American special forces captured President Nicolás Maduro, who was accused by Washington of drug trafficking and power usurpation. Simultaneously, the US tightened oil sanctions: in December, a naval blockade of Venezuela was announced, and several tanker shipments of Venezuelan oil were intercepted and confiscated. These actions have already reduced oil exports from Venezuela – in December, they fell to approximately 0.5 million barrels per day (almost half the November level). While Venezuelan oil production and refining continue to operate normally, the political crisis creates uncertainty for future supplies. The market is aware of these risks: despite Venezuela's small share in global exports, the hardline stance of the US signals potential consequences to all importers seeking to bypass sanctions.
• Russian Energy Resources: Dialogue between Moscow and the West regarding the reassessment of sanctions on Russian oil and gas has yielded no significant results. The US and EU are extending existing restrictions and price caps on Russian raw materials, linking their easing to progress in Ukraine. Moreover, the American administration signals its willingness to impose new measures: additional sanctions on companies in China and India that aid in transporting or purchasing Russian oil in violation of established limits are under discussion. Market responses to these signals maintain a “risk premium,” particularly in the segment of tanker transportation, where freight and insurance costs for oil of dubious origin are rising.
• Conflicts and Supply Security: Military and political conflicts continue to impact energy markets. Tensions in the Black Sea remain high: during the holidays, reports emerged of strikes on port infrastructure related to the standoff between Russia and Ukraine. So far, this has not caused serious export disruptions, but the risk for oil and grain transportation through maritime corridors remains elevated. In the Middle East, disputes between key OPEC players – Saudi Arabia and the UAE – have intensified due to the situation in Yemen, where UAE-backed forces have clashed with Saudi allies. However, within OPEC, these disagreements have not yet hindered cooperation: historically, the cartel has sought to separate politics from the overarching goal of maintaining stability in the oil market.

Asia: Strategies of India and China Amidst Challenges

• India's Import Policy: Facing tightened Western sanctions, India is forced to navigate between the demands of its allies and its energy needs. New Delhi has not officially joined the sanctions against Moscow and continues to purchase significant volumes of Russian oil and coal on favorable terms. Russian raw material supplies account for over 20% of India's oil imports, and a sharp decline is considered impossible. However, logistical and financial constraints have emerged: by the end of 2025, Indian refineries had slightly reduced crude oil purchases from Russia. Traders estimate that in December, Russian oil supplies to India decreased to ~1.2 million barrels per day – the lowest level in the past couple of years (compared to a record ~1.8 million bpd a month earlier). Seeking to avoid shortages, Indian Oil, the largest refinery corporation, has activated an option for additional oil supplies from Colombia and is working on contracts with Middle Eastern and African suppliers. Concurrently, India insists on preferential treatment: Russian companies offer Urals oil at a discount of ~$4-5 to Brent pricing, maintaining the competitiveness of these barrels even under sanctions pressure. In the long term, India is increasing its domestic production: the state-owned ONGC is developing deepwater fields in the Andaman Sea, and the first drilling results are promising. Despite these moves towards self-sufficiency, the country will remain heavily dependent on imports (with over 85% of consumed oil derived from foreign purchases) for the foreseeable future.
• China’s Energy Security: The largest Asian economy continues to balance between increasing domestic production and rising imports of energy resources. China, not having joined the sanctions against Russia, has capitalized on the situation to increase its purchases of Russian oil and gas at reduced prices. By the end of 2025, China's oil imports approached record levels, reaching about 11 million barrels per day (just shy of the 2023 peak). Gas imports, both LNG and pipeline, also remain at high levels, enabling the fuel supply for industrial enterprises and heating during the economic recovery period. At the same time, Beijing is annually increasing its domestic production: oil production in China reached a historical record of ~215 million tons (≈4.3 million bpd, +1% y/y) in 2025, and natural gas output exceeded 175 billion m³ (+5-6% year-over-year). While the rise in domestic production helps meet part of the demand, China continues to import about 70% of its consumed oil and approximately 40% of gas. To enhance energy security, the Chinese government is investing in exploring new fields, enhancing oil recovery technologies, and expanding storage capacities for strategic reserves. In the coming years, Beijing will continue to build significant oil reserves, creating a “safety cushion” against market shocks. Thus, India and China – the two largest consumers in Asia – are flexibly adapting to the new environment, combining import diversification with the development of their resource base.

Energy Transition: Records of Renewable Sources and the Role ofTraditional Generation

• Growth in Renewable Generation: The global transition to clean energy continues to accelerate. By the end of 2025, many countries recorded historic records in electricity generation from renewable sources. In the European Union, total generation from solar and wind plants for the first time surpassed production from coal and gas-fired power plants. In the US, the share of renewables in electricity production exceeded 30%, and the overall amount of energy derived from solar and wind surpassed that from coal-fired plants for the first time. China, remaining the world leader in installed renewable capacity, introduced tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines last year, renewing its own records for green energy. According to the International Energy Agency, total global investments in the energy sector exceeded $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of these funds directed towards renewable projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems.
• Integration Challenges: The impressive growth of renewable energy brings new challenges alongside its benefits. The main issue is ensuring the stability of the energy system with the increasing share of variable sources. In 2025, many countries faced the need to balance the increased generation from solar and wind against the traditional generation reserves. In Europe and the US, gas-fired power plants continue to play a key role as flexible capacity, covering peak loads or compensating for declines in renewable generation during adverse weather. Similarly, China and India, despite large-scale construction of renewables, continue to commission modern coal and gas plants to meet rapidly growing electricity demand. As a result, the energy transition stage is characterized by a paradox: on one hand, new "green" records are being set, while on the other, traditional hydrocarbon sources remain necessary for the reliable functioning of the energy system during the transition period.
• Policy and Goals: Governments around the world are enhancing incentives for "green" energy – tax breaks, subsidies, and innovative programs aimed at accelerating decarbonization are being implemented. Major economies are declaring ambitious goals: the EU and the UK aim for carbon neutrality by 2050, China by 2060, and India by 2070. However, achieving these targets not only requires investments in generation but also the development of energy storage and distribution infrastructure. Breakthroughs in industrial storage are anticipated in the coming years: lithium-ion battery costs are declining and their mass production (particularly in China) has risen by tens of percent per year. By 2030, global capacities of storage systems could exceed 500 GWh, enhancing the flexibility of energy systems and allowing for the integration of even more renewables without the threat of disruptions.

Coal Sector: Resilient Demand Amidst the Green Transition

• Historical Peaks: Despite the move towards decarbonization, global coal consumption reached a new record in 2025. According to IEA data, it amounted to approximately 8.85 billion tons (+0.5% compared to 2024), driven by increased demand in the energy and industrial sectors of several countries. Particularly high coal usage persists in the Asia-Pacific region: rapid economic growth, coupled with a lack of alternatives in some developing countries, supports significant demand for coal fuel. China – the world's largest consumer and producer of coal – approached peak consumption levels again: annual output from Chinese mines exceeds 4 billion tons, largely covering domestic needs. India has also increased coal usage to ensure about 70% of its electricity generation.
• Market Dynamics: Following the price shocks of 2022, global thermal coal prices stabilized within a narrower range. In 2025, coal prices oscillated in equilibrium with supply and demand: on one hand, high demand in Asia and seasonal fluctuations (for instance, increased consumption in hot summer months for cooling) on the other hand, a rising export from countries like Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, and Russia kept the market balanced. While many states announce plans to gradually cut back on coal use to meet climate goals, no significant reduction in the share of coal is forecasted on the horizon for the next 5-10 years. For billions of people worldwide, electricity from coal-fired power plants continues to ensure basic stability of energy supply, particularly where renewables have not yet fully replaced traditional generation.
• Outlooks and Transition Period: Global coal demand is expected to start declining noticeably only by the decade's end, as new renewable capacities come online, as well as advancements in nuclear energy and gas generation. However, the transition will be uneven: in some years, local spikes in coal consumption may occur due to weather-related factors (for example, droughts reducing hydropower generation or harsh winters). Governments find themselves balancing between energy security and environmental commitments. Many countries are implementing carbon taxes and quota systems to stimulate movement away from coal, while simultaneously investing in retraining workers in the coal sector and diversifying economies in coal-producing regions. As a result, while the coal sector remains significant, the "green" agenda of developed countries gradually limits its long-term prospects.

Oil Refining and Oil Products: Diesel Shortages and New Restrictions

• Diesel Shortage: At the end of 2025, the global oil product market faced a paradoxical situation: oil prices were declining, while refining margins, especially for diesel fuel, significantly increased. In Europe, diesel production profitability rose approximately 30% year-on-year. The reasons are structural and geopolitical. On one hand, the EU's ban on the import of oil products produced from Russian oil has reduced the available supply of diesel and other light oil products in the European market. On the other hand, military actions have led to attacks on refineries: strikes on Ukrainian refineries and infrastructure have restricted local fuel production. As a result, diesel supply in the region has become constrained, and prices remain high despite the overall cheapness of oil.
• Limited Capacities: Globally, the oil refining industry is experiencing a shortage of spare capacities. In developed countries, major oil companies have closed or repurposed several refineries in recent years (partly for environmental reasons), and new refining projects are not expected in the near term. This means that the oil product market remains structurally deficient in certain types of fuel. Investors and traders expect that high margins on diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline will persist for at least as long as new capacities do not come online or until demand decreases due to the transition to electric vehicles and other energy sources.
• Impact of Sanctions and Regional Aspects: Sanction policies continue to impact refining and the trading of oil products. Venezuela’s state company PDVSA, for instance, has accumulated significant stocks of heavy oil residues (bunker fuel) due to export restrictions: American sanctions have severely curtailed the market for this raw material. This leads to a shortage of marine fuel in regions previously reliant on Venezuelan supplies and forces consumers to seek alternative suppliers. In other regions, however, opportunities arise: some Asian refineries are increasing their intake by processing discounted Russian oil and partially satisfying demand in African and Latin American countries where fuel shortages are felt.

Russian Fuel Market: Ongoing Stabilization Measures

• Export Restrictions: To prevent shortages in the domestic market, Russia is extending the emergency measures introduced in the fall of 2025. The government has officially extended the complete ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel until February 28, 2026. This measure releases additional volumes of fuel for domestic consumption – estimated at 200 to 300 thousand tons per month, which were previously exported. Consequently, gas stations within the country are better supplied with fuel during the winter season, and wholesale prices have significantly retreated from the peak levels seen in late summer.
• Financial Support for the Industry: Authorities are maintaining a comprehensive set of measures to incentivize refiners to direct sufficient volumes of fuel to the domestic market. From January 1, excise duties on gasoline and diesel fuel have been increased (by 5.1%), raising the tax burden; however, oil companies continue to receive compensation through a damping mechanism. The “damping” process reimburses part of the difference between high global prices and lower domestic prices, allowing refineries to avoid losses when selling fuel domestically. Thanks to subsidies and compensations, the plants find it economically viable to redirect products to domestic gas stations, ensuring stable prices for end consumers.
• Monitoring and Operational Response: Relevant government agencies (Ministry of Energy, Federal Antimonopoly Service, etc.) continue daily monitoring of the fuel supply situation in the regions. Control over refinery operations and supply logistics has been intensified; authorities have declared readiness to immediately deploy reserves or introduce new restrictions if disruptions occur. A recent incident at one southern refinery (the Ilsky plant in Krasnodar region was attacked by a drone, causing a fire) confirmed the effectiveness of this approach: the incident was quickly contained, and there were no disruptions in gasoline supply. As a result of this complex of measures, retail prices at gas stations remain under control: over the past year, their growth was only a few percent, close to the overall inflation rate. As the 2026 sowing campaign approaches, the government intends to continue proactive measures, preventing new price spikes and maintaining uninterrupted fuel supply to the economy.

Financial Markets and Indicators: The Energy Sector's Response

• Stock Dynamics: The stock indices of oil and gas companies generally reflected the decline in oil prices at the end of 2025. In oil-dependent Middle Eastern markets, corrections were seen: for instance, the Saudi Tadawul fell by about 1% in December, while the shares of major global oil and gas corporations (ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, etc.) recorded slight declines amid falling profits in the upstream segment. However, in the first days of 2026, the situation stabilized: investors priced in the anticipated OPEC+ decision and perceived it as a factor of predictability, leading to neutral-positive dynamics in industry equity prices.
• Monetary Policy: The actions of central banks indirectly influence the fuel and energy sector. In several developing countries, monetary easing has begun: for example, the Central Bank of Egypt reduced its key rate by 100 basis points in December following a period of high inflation. This supported the local stock market (+0.9% index for Egypt over the week) and may stimulate domestic energy demand. In leading economies, conversely, rates remain high to combat inflation, which somewhat cools business activity and restrains fuel consumption growth, but simultaneously prevents capital outflow from raw material markets.
• Commodity Exporters’ Currencies: The currencies of resource-exporting countries maintain relative stability despite the volatility of oil prices. The Russian ruble, Norwegian krone, Canadian dollar, and several currencies from Persian Gulf countries are supported by substantial export inflows. At the end of 2025, amid falling oil prices, these currencies weakened only slightly, as the budgets of many listed countries were balanced with lower price assumptions. The presence of sovereign funds and currency pegs (as in Saudi Arabia) also smooths fluctuations. For investors, this signals relative reliability: resource-dependent economies are entering 2026 without signs of currency crises, positively impacting the investment climate in the energy sector.