Key News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Monday, February 9, 2026
At the beginning of February 2026, global oil prices remain relatively stable, hovering in the high $60 range per barrel. The benchmark Brent is trading around $68–70, while the American WTI is in the $64–66 range. Following a decline in the second half of 2025, prices have partially recovered due to coordinated actions by OPEC+ and various geopolitical factors. However, persistent market pressures remain due to oversupply and uncertainty in the global economy. Western countries continue to increase sanctions pressure: starting in February, the price cap on Russian oil has been lowered to approximately $45 per barrel, and the European Union this week announced its 20th package of sanctions against Russia, which includes a complete ban on servicing maritime transportation of Russian oil and the inclusion of dozens of vessels from the "shadow fleet" in the sanctions list. These measures complicate Russia's export deliveries and increase the risk of logistical failures. At the same time, India is witnessing a sharp decline in purchases of Russian oil—January data shows imports have fallen to less than a third compared to last year, signaling a potential reorientation of trade flows.
In the domestic market of Russia, the government continues to monitor fuel prices closely. The Federal Antimonopoly Service is conducting unplanned inspections of oil companies in response to inflation risks in this sector. The winter cold has led to new records for energy consumption: several regions are experiencing peak loads on energy systems and historical maximums in gas demand. However, the energy system is coping with the increased load by utilizing reserves, successfully avoiding serious disruptions. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is accelerating—investments in renewable energy are hitting record highs, and for the first time, the share of "green" generation in the EU exceeded the output from fossil fuels at the end of 2025. This review examines current trends in global oil and gas markets, analyzes the situation in Russia's fuel and energy complex, and highlights key events in the coal, electricity, and renewable energy segments.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus and Sanction Pressure
At the beginning of February, oil prices stabilized at mid-levels after moderate growth. The North Sea Brent is holding around $68–70 per barrel, and the American WTI is in the $64–66 range, bouncing back from lows ($60) at the end of 2025. The market is supported by signals from OPEC+ regarding its readiness to limit supply in light of fragile demand. Major oil exporters suspended planned production increases at the end of last year and confirmed the extension of existing production restrictions at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026, aiming to prevent overproduction during the seasonally weak winter demand. Key factors and risks for the oil market include:
- OPEC+ Policy and Demand. Members of the alliance continue to adhere to significant voluntary production cuts (approximately 3.7 million barrels per day), forgoing previously planned increases. OPEC forecasts global oil demand to grow by about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 (to around 105 million barrels per day), but notes that a slowing Chinese economy and high interest rates in the US and Europe may adjust these expectations. The oil alliance is closely monitoring the market and is ready to respond promptly to prevent imbalances: short-term geopolitical incidents (such as recent escalations in the Middle East) have already demonstrated OPEC+'s readiness to intervene when necessary to stabilize prices.
- Sanctions and Redistribution of Flows. The sanctions confrontation surrounding Russian oil is intensifying and continues to affect the global market. The new 20th EU sanctions package tightens constraints: European companies are prohibited from insuring and financing vessels transporting oil from Russia, and the blacklist of violating vessels has been expanded. Additionally, from February, Western countries reduced the price cap on Russian oil to $45, increasing pressure on Moscow's export revenues. Despite this, Russian hydrocarbons continue to find buyers in Asia, though competition for these markets is increasing. In January, India—the largest importer of Russian oil in 2025—reduced purchases to around one-third of the previous year's level, partially reorienting its imports to other sources. This reflects the flexibility of Asian consumers and compels Russian exporters to redirect shipments more actively to China, Turkey, Southeast Asia, and other alternative markets.
Therefore, this combination of factors prevents oil prices from collapsing but also limits their growth. The market accounts for both the risks of an economic slowdown (reducing demand) and the possibility of a supply deficit in the second half of the year if sanctions significantly diminish supply. For now, prices remain relatively stable, and volatility is low by recent historical standards.
Natural Gas Market: Decreasing Stocks in Europe and Record LNG Imports
By February 2026, the European gas market remains relatively calm, despite increased winter consumption. Underground gas storage (UGS) facilities in the EU are depleting rapidly due to the heating season, but relatively mild weather in late January and record LNG deliveries are helping to avoid shortages and price shocks. Futures at the TTF hub are holding steady at about $10–12 per million BTUs, which is significantly lower than 2022 peaks and reflects market confidence in resource availability this winter. In Russia, historical daily gas consumption records were reported at the start of February due to anomalous frost for several consecutive days that set records for withdrawal from the gas transportation system.
Several key trends are shaping the gas market:
- Depleting Stocks and New Injection Season. Winter withdrawals are rapidly reducing gas inventories in Europe's storage facilities. By the end of January, UGS in the EU dropped to around 45% of total capacity—its lowest level for this time of year since 2022 and significantly below the multi-year average (approximately 58%). If current trends continue, stocks could fall to about 30% by the end of March. To raise levels back to comfortable 80–90% before next winter, European importers will need to inject around 60 billion cubic meters of gas in the inter-season. Meeting this goal will require maximizing purchases during warmer months, especially since a significant portion of current imports is being consumed immediately.
- Record LNG Deliveries. A reduction in pipeline supplies is being compensated for by unprecedented imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In 2025, European countries purchased around 175 billion cubic meters of LNG (+30% from the previous year), and in 2026, imports are projected to reach 185 billion. The increase in purchases is supported by an expansion in global supply: the commissioning of new LNG plants in the USA, Canada, Qatar, and other countries is leading to a rise in global LNG production of about 7% this year (the maximum rate since 2019). The European market is counting on making it through the heating season thanks to high LNG purchases, especially since the EU has decided to completely stop importing Russian gas by 2027, requiring the replacement of approximately 33 billion cubic meters annually with additional LNG volumes.
- Shift to the East. Russia, having lost the European gas market, is increasing supplies to the East. Volumes through the "Power of Siberia" gas pipeline to China have reached record levels (close to the design capacity of approximately 22 billion cubic meters per year), while Moscow is expediting negotiations for the construction of a second pipeline through Mongolia. Russian producers are also increasing LNG exports to Asia from the Far East and the Arctic. However, even with the eastern direction, total gas exports from Russia have significantly decreased compared to pre-2022 levels. The long-term realignment of gas flows continues, establishing a new global map of gas supply.
Overall, the gas market enters the second half of winter without the previous turbulence: prices remain moderate, and volatility has dropped to a minimum in recent years.
Oil Products Market and Refineries: Stabilization of Supply and Regulatory Measures
The global oil products market (gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.) is relatively stable at the beginning of 2026 after a period of price shocks in prior years. Fuel demand remains high due to recovery in transportation activity and industrial growth; however, increased global refining capacity is easing the ability to meet this demand. Following deficits and price peaks in 2022–2023, the situation regarding the supply of gasoline and diesel is gradually normalizing, although some regions still experience disruptions. Key trends in the fuel market include:
- Increase in Refining Capacities. New refineries are coming online in Asia and the Middle East, increasing global fuel output. For example, the modernization of the Bapco refinery in Bahrain has expanded its capacity from 267,000 to 380,000 barrels per day, while new facilities have begun operations in China and India. OPEC estimates that global refining potential will increase by approximately 600,000 barrels per day annually from 2025 to 2027. The increase in oil product supply has already led to a decrease in refining margins compared to the record levels of 2022–2023, alleviating price pressure for consumers.
- Price Stabilization and Local Imbalances. Gasoline and diesel prices have come down from peak levels, reflecting lower oil prices and increased fuel supply. However, local spikes are still possible: for instance, recent cold spells in North America temporarily increased demand for heating fuel, while in certain European countries, a higher premium on diesel persists due to logistics chain adjustments following the embargo on Russian supplies. Governments are employing smoothing mechanisms—from reducing fuel taxes to releasing part of strategic reserves—to keep prices in check during sudden spikes in demand.
- Government Regulation of the Market. In some nations, authorities are directly intervening in the fuel market to stabilize supply. In Russia, following the fuel crisis of 2025, export restrictions on oil products remain in place: the ban on exports of gasoline and diesel for independent traders has been extended until summer 2026, allowing oil companies only limited overseas shipments. Simultaneously, the damping mechanism has been extended, whereby the government compensates refineries for the price difference between domestic and export prices, encouraging supplies to the internal market. These measures have alleviated fuel shortages at gas stations while underscoring the importance of manual management. In other regions (for example, in some Asian countries), authorities are also resorting to temporary support measures—reducing taxes, subsidizing transport, or increasing import supplies—to mitigate the effects of sharp price fluctuations.
Electricity Sector: Rising Demand and Network Modernization
The global electricity sector is facing accelerated demand growth accompanied by significant infrastructure challenges. According to the IEA, global electricity consumption is expected to grow by more than 3.5% annually over the next five years—substantially outpacing the total energy consumption growth. The drivers include the electrification of transportation (increasing the electric vehicle fleet), the digitalization of the economy (expansion of data centers, development of AI), and climate factors (increased use of air conditioning in hot climates). After a stagnation period in the 2010s, electricity demand is rapidly increasing again even in developed countries.
At the beginning of 2026, extreme cold resulted in record peak loads on energy systems in several countries. To avoid outages, operators had to utilize backup coal and oil-fired power plants. Although by the end of 2025 the share of coal in the EU's electricity production dropped to a record low of 9%, this winter, some European states temporarily brought back retired coal power plants to meet peak demands. At the same time, infrastructure bottlenecks have emerged: insufficient network capacity has forced restrictions on energy output from renewable sources on windy days to avoid overloads. These events highlight the need for accelerated upgrades to grid infrastructure and the development of energy storage systems.
Priorities for the development of the electricity sector include:
- Modernization and Expansion of Networks. Increased loads necessitate large-scale updating and expansion of electricity grid infrastructure. Many countries are launching accelerated programs for construction of high-voltage lines and digitalization of energy system management. According to the IEA, over 2500 GW of new generation capacity and major consumers worldwide are waiting to connect to the grids—bureaucratic delays are measured in years. It is projected that annual investments in electricity networks will need to increase by about 50% by 2030; otherwise, the development of generation will outpace infrastructure capabilities.
- Reliability and Energy Storage. Energy companies are implementing new technologies to maintain stable electricity supply amidst record loads. Energy storage systems are being developed widely—large-scale industrial battery farms are being built in California and Texas (USA), Germany, the UK, Australia, and other regions. These batteries help balance daily peaks and integrate uneven renewable generation. Concurrently, network security is being enhanced: the industry is investing in cybersecurity and upgrading equipment, considering the risks of declining reliability due to extreme weather, infrastructure wear, and cyberattack threats. Governments and energy companies are directing significant funds toward increasing the flexibility and resilience of energy systems to prevent blackouts in the context of a growing reliance on electricity in the economy.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth and New Challenges
The transition to clean energy continues to accelerate. The year 2025 set a record for the commissioning of renewable energy (RE) capacities—primarily solar and wind power plants. Preliminary data from the IEA indicates that in 2025, the share of RE in total global electricity generation equaled that of coal (about 30%), while nuclear generation also reached a record level. In 2026, clean energy is expected to continue its production growth at a leading pace. Global investments in the energy transition are hitting new highs: according to BNEF, in 2025, more than $2.3 trillion was invested in clean energy and electric transport projects (+8% from 2024). Governments of major economies are intensifying support for "green" technologies, viewing them as a driver of sustainable growth.
Despite the impressive progress, the rapid development of RE is accompanied by challenges. The experience of winter 2025/26 showed that with a high share of intermittent generation, having backup capacities and storage systems is critically important: even advanced "green" energy systems are vulnerable to weather anomalies. To increase stability, some countries are adjusting their policies: for instance, Germany is considering extending the operation of nuclear reactors, recognizing that an immediate phase-out of nuclear energy may be premature, and the EU is temporarily relaxing some climate regulations to avert price spikes. However, the long-term course towards decarbonization remains unchanged—its implementation requires a more flexible and balanced approach that combines accelerated deployment of RE while maintaining the reliability of energy supply.
Coal Sector: High Demand in Asia Amidst Coal Phase-Out
In 2026, the global coal market remains on the rise: global coal consumption is holding at historically high levels despite efforts to reduce its use. According to the IEA, in 2025, global demand for coal exceeded 8 billion tons—close to the record levels. The primary reason is persistently high demand in Asia. Economies such as China and India continue to burn huge volumes of coal for electricity generation and industrial needs, compensating for the decrease in coal use in Western Europe and the US.
- Asian Appetite. China and India account for the lion's share of global coal consumption. China, which accounts for nearly 50% of global demand, even with its production of over 4 billion tons of coal annually, finds itself needing to increase imports during peak periods. India is also ramping up production, but with rapid economic growth, it must import significant quantities of fuel (mainly from Indonesia, Australia, and Russia). High Asian demand keeps coal prices at relatively high levels. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, and Russia—have increased revenues due to stable orders from Asian countries.
- Gradual Phase-Out in the West. In Europe and North America, the coal sector continues to shrink. After a temporary spike in coal use in the EU in 2022–2023, its share is again declining: by the end of 2025, coal accounted for less than 10% of electricity generation in the European Union. Record investments in RE and the return to service of nuclear facilities are pushing coal out of the energy balance of developed countries. Investments in new coal projects have virtually ceased outside of Asia. It is expected that in the second half of the decade, global demand for coal will begin to decline sustainably, although in the short term, this type of fuel will retain its importance for covering peak loads and industrial needs in developing economies.
Forecast and Prospects
Despite a series of winter challenges, the global fuel and energy complex enters February 2026 without signs of panic, though in a state of heightened readiness. Short-term factors—extreme weather and geopolitical tensions—support price volatility in oil and gas; however, the systemic balance of supply and demand generally remains stable. OPEC+ continues to play its role as a stabilizer, keeping the oil market from experiencing deficits, while prompt redirection of supplies and increased production by other countries (e.g., the US) compensates for local disruptions.
If no new shocks occur, oil prices are likely to remain near current levels until the next OPEC+ meeting, when the alliance may review quotas based on the situation. For the gas market, the coming weeks will be critical: mild weather in the latter half of winter may help to lower prices and begin restocking, while a new cold front threatens price surges and challenges for Europe. In spring, EU countries will face a large-scale campaign to fill UGS for the next heating season—competition with Asia for LNG is expected to be fierce.
Investors are closely monitoring political signals. Possible progress in resolving geopolitical conflicts (such as peace negotiations regarding Ukraine) or, conversely, an escalation of tensions (intensifying standoffs between the US and Iran) could significantly influence market sentiment. However, the long-term development vectors—technological changes, global energy transition, and climate agenda—will continue to shape the face of the global fuel and energy sector, steering investment directions and industry transformations for years to come.
