Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Thursday, December 25, 2025. Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Refineries, and Key Events in the Global Fuel and Energy Complex – Overview and Analysis for Investors and Market Participants.
Today’s overview covers key events in the global fuel and energy complex. Oil markets are concluding the year relatively stably, aided by the measured actions of OPEC+ and an increase in supply, while geopolitical factors—from sanctions to attempts at peaceful resolutions—continue to impact deliveries. The energy sector is witnessing record achievements in renewable and nuclear energy, while global coal demand reaches a historical peak ahead of an expected decline.
OPEC+ Maintains Production to Stabilize the Market
- It was decided to keep current oil production quotas for the first quarter of 2026 in order to prevent a potential oversupply in the market.
- OPEC+ countries have already returned about 2.9 million barrels per day back to the market from previously reduced volumes, but the total production cut of ~3.2 million barrels per day is still in effect until the end of 2026.
- The meeting took place amid a renewed U.S. effort to reach a peaceful agreement between Russia and Ukraine. OPEC+ takes into account that the success of negotiations and a possible easing of sanctions may add additional oil volumes to the market, while failure could intensify sanctions and limit Russian exports.
Oil Prices Remain Stable
Global oil prices are entering the end of the year without sharp fluctuations, remaining within an average range. Brent is holding around $62–63 per barrel, while WTI remains at about $58–59, reflecting a balance between steady demand and sufficient supply.
- At the beginning of the week, prices increased by approximately 2% due to strong macroeconomic data from the U.S.: GDP growth in Q3 exceeded forecasts, boosting fuel demand expectations.
- Additional support for prices came from supply disruption risks. New U.S. sanctions against Venezuela's oil sector and strikes on oil export infrastructure in the Black Sea heightened market concerns.
- Nevertheless, by the end of 2025, Brent had decreased by about 15%. The oil market exhibited an unusually narrow price corridor ($60–80), even amid geopolitical upheavals—thanks to record production in the U.S. (over 13.5 million barrels per day) and increased supplies from non-OPEC countries, compensating for shocks.
- Refineries ramped up product output, while commercial crude oil and fuel inventories in the U.S. rose in December, helping to stabilize gasoline and diesel prices from spikes at year-end.
Natural Gas: Comfortable Stocks and Moderate Prices
The natural gas market has entered winter relatively calmly. In Europe, wholesale gas prices have stabilized around €27 per MWh—at their lowest since spring 2024—thanks to high stocks and a steady inflow of LNG.
- EU underground gas storage facilities are over 70% full as winter begins, significantly above multi-year averages and reducing the risk of shortages even in cold weather.
- LNG imports remain high, compensating for the cessation of pipeline supplies from Russia. Major consumers (Germany, Italy, etc.) are actively purchasing LNG on the spot market, diversifying their sources.
- In the U.S., gas prices (Henry Hub) are around $5 per million BTU. Record production levels and high LNG export volumes keep the American market balanced, though periods of anomalous cold can trigger short-term price spikes.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Impact on Energy Supply
Political conflicts and sanctions continue to affect global energy markets, creating both threats of disruptions and expectations for improvement in the future.
- The U.S. administration has tightened measures against Venezuela's oil sector: sanctions target tankers transporting Venezuelan oil. In December, several vessels were intercepted and forced to return, threatening local storage capacity and reducing production in the country.
- Amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, strikes on energy infrastructure have intensified. In November, a Ukrainian drone damaged the CPC pipeline terminal near Novorossiysk, cutting Kazakh oil exports of CPC Blend in December by a third (to ~1.14 million barrels per day) and forcing a redirection of some volumes away from the Black Sea.
- Despite the tightening of U.S. sanctions against major Russian oil companies ("Rosneft" and "LUKOIL") in the fall, their impact on the global market has been limited. Russian oil exports remain close to multi-month highs due to alternative logistics, although Urals crude trades at a significant discount to Brent.
Renewable Energy: Wind and Investment Records
The renewable energy sector continues to gain momentum worldwide, setting new records in capacity and attracting massive investments—despite political risks.
- On December 5, the UK achieved a historic peak in electricity generation from wind—23,825 MW—providing over half of the country's needs at that time. This record was bolstered by strong winter winds and the expansion of offshore wind farms.
- According to BloombergNEF, global investments in new renewable energy projects reached a record $386 billion in the first half of 2025. The majority of funds are directed towards solar and wind generation development, as well as energy storage systems for integrating renewables.
- In the U.S., a federal court overturned a ban on the construction of new wind energy projects on federal lands and the continental shelf, previously imposed earlier this year. This decision paves the way for large offshore wind farms and supports state plans to increase the share of clean energy.
- China maintains global leadership in renewables: the total capacity of renewable sources in the country surpassed 1.88 TW (about 56% of total capacity). The large-scale deployment of solar and wind power plants, along with storage systems, has allowed China to keep CO2 emissions stable despite economic growth.
Nuclear Energy: The Return of Major Capacity
After a prolonged decline in the global nuclear sector, a revival is underway. Countries are reassessing the role of nuclear generation as a stable low-carbon energy source, aiming to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
- In Japan, preparations are underway for the partial restart of the country's largest nuclear power plant, Kashiwazaki-Kariwa. TEPCO has received approval from Niigata Prefecture authorities and plans to launch Unit 6, with a capacity of 1,360 MW, on January 20, 2026—the first reactor launched by the company since 2011. The full restoration of the 8.2-gigawatt plant will be phased and take several years.
- The Japanese government has announced support measures for the nuclear industry to double the share of nuclear in the energy balance. A system of government loans and guarantees for reactor modernization will be introduced; currently, 14 out of 33 reactors remaining after the Fukushima disaster have resumed operation.
- A return to nuclear energy is also observed in other countries. In Europe, Finland has launched the Olkiluoto-3 reactor, while France and the UK are investing in new nuclear power plants; in the U.S., extending the operational life of existing units and funding modular reactors is being considered.
Coal Sector: Peak Consumption and Gradual Decline
The global coal market reached a historical peak in 2025, but a trend reversal is anticipated ahead. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal consumption rose by 0.5% to 8.85 billion tons in 2025. A gradual decline in coal demand is expected by the end of the decade as renewable energy, nuclear, and natural gas displace it in generation.
- In the U.S., coal consumption for electricity generation increased in 2025. This was driven by last year’s spike in gas prices and a presidential directive to extend the operation of coal-fired power plants that were preparing for closure.
- China remains the largest coal consumer, accounting for about 60% of the country's electricity generation. In 2025, coal demand in China stabilized; gradual reductions are expected by 2030 due to significant increases in renewable capacities. Beijing's policy aims for peak emissions by 2030, which implies a reduction in the role of coal.
Corporate News: Deals and Strategies of Energy Companies
The end of the year is marked by significant corporate steps in the energy sector, reflecting companies' desire to optimize their portfolios and adapt to new conditions.
- BP is selling 65% of its subsidiary Castrol (lubricants) to American investment fund Stonepeak for $6 billion. The deal values the Castrol business at $10.1 billion; BP will retain 35% in the new joint venture. The proceeds will be used to reduce debt and pay dividends, in line with the strategy to enhance returns from traditional areas.
- In Russia, foreign partners are showing interest in returning to the market despite sanctions. India's ONGC and Japan's SODECO have retained their stakes in Sakhalin-1, and a preliminary agreement between ExxonMobil and Rosneft regarding loss compensation signals the willingness of major players to resume cooperation once the political situation improves.
- Technological deals are happening in electricity and infrastructure. For example, American Alphabet (parent company of Google) announced in December the purchase of Intersect Power, which develops renewable energy and data center projects, for $4.7 billion. This will allow Alphabet to accelerate the development of its own renewable generation and reduce its dependence on overloaded power grids.
