Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Markets as of November 24, 2025: Global Events, Analysis, Refining, Gas, Electricity, and Oil Products.
At the beginning of a new week, global oil and gas markets are responding to key geopolitical signals and industry events. Amidst attempts at diplomatic resolution of the Ukraine conflict, oil prices have dropped to a one-month low, while notable shifts are occurring in the energy sector—from increased LNG exports to Europe to record profits in oil refining and the compromise outcomes of the COP30 climate summit. Below is an overview of the main news and trends in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of November 24, 2025.
Global Oil Market: Hopes for Peace and New Sanctions
Oil prices are declining. Global oil prices finished last week at their lowest level in a month. Brent has dropped to around $62.5 per barrel, while WTI is at $58.1, which is 3% lower than the previous week. The decline in quotations was influenced by the U.S. initiative to achieve a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine: investors are pricing in the possibility of ending the protracted conflict and lifting some sanctions, which could restore additional volumes of Russian oil to the market. Simultaneously, risk sentiments are weakened by high interest rates in the U.S. and the strengthening dollar, making commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Sanctions and prospects for their lifting. On Friday, November 21, new U.S. sanctions against Russia's largest oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil came into effect. These restrictions aim to further reduce Russia's oil export revenues. However, the peace plan approved in the U.S. for Ukraine implies that if agreements are implemented, these sanctions could be lifted. The market is already pricing in such a possibility: the risk of disruptions in Russian supplies has slightly decreased, although experts warn that a real peace deal is far from guaranteed. Moscow and Kyiv currently assess the plan's terms with skepticism, and analysts note that a final agreement may take a considerable amount of time to negotiate.
Supply-demand balance. Fundamental factors in the oil market are shifting towards potential oversupply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its forecast in its latest report: it is anticipated that by 2026, the global oil market will transition to a slight surplus. OPEC+ plans to maintain a cautious policy—earlier, the cartel signaled a pause in production increases in Q1 2026 to prevent excess oil from international sources outside of OPEC. Bank analysts (including Goldman Sachs) also forecast a moderate decline in oil prices over the next one to two years due to a backlog in supply. An additional indicator of excess supply is the record volume of oil stored in tankers offshore: traders estimate that due to sanctions, a significant portion of Russian volumes is accumulating in floating storage, waiting for buyers. All these factors together keep oil prices under pressure.
Shale Production in the U.S.: The Test of $60
Low oil prices are beginning to take a toll on the U.S. shale sector. In the largest American oil basin—the Permian (in Texas and New Mexico)—there has been a reduction in drilling activity. Companies are mothballing drilling rigs, and a wave of layoffs has swept through the industry: the cost of shale oil for some independent producers is approaching current market prices around $60 per barrel, which raises doubts about the profitability of new wells. Reports from the region indicate that dozens of drilling rigs have been halted in recent weeks, and some oil service companies are optimizing their personnel.
However, experts note that the U.S. shale industry has navigated similar downturn cycles in the past and has demonstrated resilience. Major players with sustainable financing are using the moment to acquire assets: amidst declining production, merger and acquisition deals are picking up. Recently, the sector was energized by the news of a significant ExxonMobil deal to acquire a shale producer (which has strengthened the major's position in the Permian Basin). Consolidation is expected to continue, as smaller producers prefer to sell or merge rather than withstand price pressure. If prices remain at relatively low levels, a slowdown in U.S. production could balance the market and lead to a new contraction in supply in the second half of 2026, which, in turn, would support prices.
Oil Products and Refining: Surge in Margins and Infrastructure Problems
Record profits for refiners. Unlike crude oil, the markets for oil products are experiencing heightened tension. In November, refining margins in many key markets reached multi-year highs. According to industry analysts, European refineries are earning about $30–34 per barrel of crude in net fuel sales profits—levels not seen since 2023. A similar situation is observed in the U.S. (the 3-2-1 crack spread index is nearing record values) and Asia. Several factors have played into refiners' favor:
- Capacity reductions: A series of planned and unplanned refinery outages worldwide have led to decreased supplies of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. In the U.S. and Europe, some facilities have closed in recent years, and in Nigeria and the Middle East, new large refineries (such as Dangote, Al-Zour) have temporarily reduced output due to repairs and commissioning.
- Drone strikes and sanctions: Drone attacks on refining plants and pipelines in Russia during the conflict have decreased the country's product exports. At the same time, embargoes and tariffs on Russian oil products (imposed by Western countries) have limited the availability of diesel fuel in the global market, particularly in Europe.
- High diesel demand: Europe is experiencing a structural diesel fuel deficit—economic growth and cold weather are supporting demand, while domestic refining does not fully meet it. Imported supplies from Asia, the Middle East, and the U.S. are not always sufficient to close the gap, pushing diesel prices upward.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that due to this surge in refining margins, oil companies are revising their forecasts: despite gloomy expectations at the beginning of the year, the third quarter of 2025 proved extremely successful for the downstream segment. For instance, French TotalEnergies reported a 76% year-on-year profit increase in its refining business, thanks to favorable market conditions. Experts believe high margins will persist at least until the end of the year, encouraging refineries to increase utilization rates after fall maintenance is completed.
Pipeline accident in the U.S. Infrastructure issues are also impacting the refined products market. In November, a leak occurred in one of the largest product pipelines in the U.S.—the Olympic Pipeline, which delivers gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from Washington State to neighboring Oregon. The leak was discovered on November 11 near the city of Everett (WA), prompting the operator (BP) to halt pumping. The state authorities declared a state of emergency as the shutdown disrupted the supply of aviation kerosene to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. By the end of the week, emergency crews had excavated more than 30 meters of pipe in search of the damage, but the source of the leak was not immediately identified. One of the two pipeline lines has been partially restarted, but overall the system is not yet operating at full capacity. The incident highlights the vulnerability of fuel infrastructure: regional fuel supplies had to be replenished through trucking and reserve deliveries, causing local prices for jet fuel and gasoline to briefly spike. It is expected that the pipeline will return to full operation only after repairs and inspections are conducted.
Gas Market and European Energy Security
The European gas market enters the winter season relatively stable, yet energy security concerns remain a top priority. Due to active liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchases and consumption savings over recent months, gas storage facilities in EU countries are nearly at record levels as winter begins. This mitigates the risk of a sharp price spike in the event of cold weather. Meanwhile, European governments continue to diversify gas sources, reducing dependence on Russian supplies:
- New LNG terminals in Germany: The largest EU economy is increasing its capabilities to receive LNG. The fifth floating storage regasification unit (FSRU) is set to launch in 2026 at the mouth of the Elbe (Stade port). Already, LNG accounted for about 11% of Germany's total gas imports over the first three quarters of 2025. Construction of permanent terminals is progressing rapidly—as Berlin aims to fully replace the pipeline gas that was lost from Russia in 2022-2023.
- Balkan gas pipeline backed by the U.S.: In Southeast Europe, the long-discussed alternative gas pipeline project is set to begin. Bosnia and Herzegovina, with U.S. support, has renewed plans to construct a connecting line with Croatia— the so-called "Southern interconnector." Gas will flow from the Croatian LNG terminal on Krk Island, enabling Bosnia to reduce its reliance on Russian gas currently supplied through the "Turkish Stream." American partners have expressed willingness to be leading investors in the project. Previous implementations have been hampered by internal political disagreements in BiH, but now the project has received renewed support and momentum.
- Ukraine increases imports: Amid escalating conflict with Russia, Ukraine has faced significant challenges in its gas sector. Due to infrastructure shelling in recent months, the country has lost up to half of its own gas production. To get through the winter, Kyiv is significantly increasing fuel imports from neighboring countries. In November, the Trans-Balkan route for supplies was again activated—about 2.3 million cubic meters of gas per day began flowing from Greece (where an LNG terminal is located) through Romania and Bulgaria. Additionally, Ukraine is steadily receiving gas from Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. These measures are helping to offset the shortfall caused by the attacks and maintain energy supply for Ukrainian consumers during the winter period.
Energy security and politics. In several European countries, there is growing attention to control over critical energy infrastructure. For instance, the Italian government has expressed concern about Chinese investors' involvement in the equity of companies owning national electric grids and gas pipelines. Officials state that strategic networks must remain under reliable internal control—measures to limit the share of foreign shareholders in such assets are being discussed. This step aligns with the overall EU trend towards strengthening energy independence and protecting infrastructure from geopolitical risks.
Price situation. Thanks to high inventories and diversification of sources, spot prices for gas in Europe remain relatively moderate for this season. Regulators in several countries continue to protect consumers: in the UK, from December, the maximum tariff for households (price cap) is being slightly increased—by only 0.2%—reflecting the stability of wholesale prices. Nonetheless, electricity and heating bills remain above pre-crisis levels, and governments face the challenge of balancing market prices with the need to support their populations.
Electricity Generation and Coal: Conflicting Trends
In global electricity generation, two opposing trends are observable: the growth of renewable energy sources and the simultaneous increased use of coal to meet demand. This has particularly manifested in China and several developing Asian countries:
Record electricity production in China. In the PRC, electricity demand is rising sharply—October 2025 marked a historical high for generation for that month (over 800 billion kWh, +7.9% year-on-year). At the same time, output from thermal power plants (primarily coal-fired) increased by more than 7%, compensating for seasonal declines in output from wind and solar power stations. Despite efforts to develop renewables, around 70% of electricity in China is still generated from coal, so increased consumption inevitably leads to heightened coal burning.
Coal shortages and rising prices. Paradoxically, while coal usage in China is hitting records, actual coal production in the PRC has decreased slightly. This is due to restrictions imposed by Beijing on mine operations (safety measures and combating excessive capacities). As a result, official data shows that in October, coal production was 2.3% lower than a year earlier. The reduction in supply on the domestic market has led to price increases: the benchmark price for energy coal at the largest port of Qinhuangdao has risen to 835 yuan per ton (approximately $117), which is 37% higher than the summer low. The deficit is also being compensated by imports—China is ramping up coal purchases from Indonesia and Australia, maintaining strong demand in the global market.
Global record in coal production. According to the IEA, global coal production is expected to rise to a new record of around 9.2 billion tons in 2025. The primary contributions to this growth come from China and India, where economic growth still heavily relies on coal energy. International experts express concern: persistently high coal burning complicates the achievement of climate goals. Nonetheless, in the short term, many countries are forced to balance between environmental commitments and the need for reliable energy supply.
Energy system under war impact. Meanwhile, in Europe, targeted strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure remain an issue. According to the operator "Ukrenergo," as of the morning of November 23, over 400,000 consumers remained without electricity, especially in eastern regions that have undergone night shelling. Repair crews are working around the clock, connecting backup systems and restoring power lines, but each new damage complicates peak load management during the autumn-winter period. Ukraine's power system is integrated with the European ENTSO-E, allowing for emergency electricity imports during shortages, but the situation remains extremely tense. International partners are providing assistance with equipment and financing to support the Ukrainian energy grid.
Renewable Energy: Projects and Achievements
The renewable energy sector is progressively developing globally, demonstrating new records and initiatives:
- Pakistan shifts to solar energy. The country is preparing for an important milestone: according to government statements, by 2026, electricity generation from rooftop solar panels will exceed daytime consumption in several major industrial zones. This will mark the first such occurrence in Pakistan's history. The active development of solar generation is part of a strategy to reduce dependence on expensive imported fuel. The installation of solar modules on factory and enterprise rooftops is subsidized by the government and attracts foreign investors. The excess daytime generation is expected to be used for battery charging and fed into the grid, enhancing the electricity supply during peak evening loads.
- New offshore wind project in Europe. The Ocean Winds consortium (a joint venture of Portuguese EDP and French Engie) has won the rights to build a large floating wind farm in the Celtic Sea (off the southwest coast of the UK). The planned capacity is several hundred MW, which will supply "green" electricity to hundreds of thousands of households. The project underscores the growing interest in floating turbines that can be installed at great depths, exploring new marine areas. The UK and EU countries are actively conducting auctions for offshore wind farms, seeking to meet goals for increasing the share of renewables in the energy balance.
- Investments in grid infrastructure. German corporation Siemens Energy has announced plans to invest €2.1 billion (approximately $2.3 billion) in constructing factories for electric grid equipment by 2028. The projects will cover several countries and aim to address "bottlenecks" in the electricity grid, which needs modernization to integrate renewable sources. Amid the ongoing crisis in the wind energy division, Siemens Energy is focusing on a more reliable business—energy transmission and distribution. The expansion of transformer, switchgear, and power electronics manufacturing capacities is supported by EU governments, as improving electricity networks is recognized as critical for successful energy transition.
- Corporations procure "green" energy. The trend of entering into direct agreements for the supply of renewable energy between energy companies and large businesses continues. For instance, French TotalEnergies signed an agreement with Google to supply electricity from new solar and wind power plants to Google data centers in Ohio (USA). The deal is long-term and will allow the IT giant to move closer to its goal of using 100% renewable energy, while the energy company secures sales for its renewable energy projects. Such corporate PPAs (power purchase agreements) are becoming significant components of the market, stimulating the construction of new renewable energy facilities globally.
Corporate News and Investments in the FEC
Several significant events have occurred in the corporate segment of the fuel and energy complex, reflecting the industry's restructuring under new realities:
- ExxonMobil pauses hydrogen project. American oil and gas giant ExxonMobil has taken a break from implementing one of its most ambitious projects for producing "blue" hydrogen. The planned large hydrogen plant (presumably in Texas) has been postponed due to insufficient demand from potential customers. According to Exxon CEO Darren Woods, clients are not ready to purchase large volumes of hydrogen at economically viable prices. This situation reflects a broader trend: the shift of traditional oil and gas companies to low-carbon technologies is proceeding slower than expected, as many such projects do not yet yield swift profits. Analysts note that ExxonMobil and other majors are revising the timelines for achieving their emissions reduction goals, focusing more on profitable directions—oil and gas production—in the current price environment.
- Mining giant targets copper. In the sector of raw materials megadeals, a new potential consolidation process is underway. Australian company BHP Group has made a renewed offer to acquire British Anglo American. Anglo has recently agreed to merge with Canadian Teck Resources to concentrate on copper mining—a metal extremely in demand during the energy transition era (for electric vehicles, cables, renewable energy). Now BHP, already a leader in copper, aims to create an unprecedentedly large copper mining company capable of dominating the market. Anglo American management has yet to comment, and the details of discussions are not disclosed. If the deal goes through, it will redistribute power in the mining sector and give BHP control over strategic copper resources in South Africa, South America, and other regions.
- U.S. invests $100 billion in critical resources. The American Export-Import Bank (US EXIM) has announced an unprecedented financing program aimed at ensuring sustainable supplies of critical raw materials for the U.S. and its allies. This entails allocating up to $100 billion for projects related to the extraction and processing of rare earth metals, lithium, nickel, uranium, as well as for the development of liquefied gas and nuclear energy components. The first package of deals has already been formed: among them is insurance for $4 billion for the export of American LNG to Egypt and a $1.25 billion loan for the development of a large copper-gold deposit Reko Diq in Pakistan. The EXIM initiative aligns with the U.S. administration's policy of strengthening "energy dominance" and reducing dependence on China for raw materials needed in high-tech and energy sectors. Given Congress's approval of the bank's funding, significant U.S. involvement in raw material projects globally is expected in the coming years.
- Nuclear project in Hungary receives exemption. Amid sanction policies, a remarkable news item has emerged from Europe: the U.S. Department of the Treasury has granted a special license allowing certain companies to conduct transactions concerning the construction of a new nuclear power plant "Paks II" in Hungary. This project is being implemented with the participation of Russia's state corporation Rosatom, and previous sanction restrictions had created uncertainty in its financing. Now, an exception has been made, likely at Budapest's request and for the sake of maintaining energy security for a NATO ally. The license pertains to transactions related to the non-nuclear aspects of construction and reflects a pragmatic approach—the sanctions regime remains strict, but targeted relaxations are possible when they serve the interests of energy stability for European partners.
COP30 Climate Summit: A Compromise Without Abandoning Oil and Gas
The 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) concluded in Belem, Brazil, with final agreements reflecting the complexity of international negotiations in the energy sector. The final document of the summit was adopted with great difficulty and became a compromise between developed countries pushing for more decisive measures and a bloc of fuel-exporting states and developing economies:
Financial support for vulnerable countries. One of COP30's main achievements was the promise to triple climate financing for developing countries by 2035. Wealthy nations are prepared to increase assistance for projects aimed at adapting to climate change—building protective infrastructure, transitioning to renewable energy, combating desertification, and addressing flooding. This was a fundamental demand from Global South countries, which pointed out their disproportionate vulnerability to climate risks. The European Union, although initially criticizing the draft agreement as "insufficiently ambitious," ultimately did not block its adoption to initiate support mechanisms for the poorest countries. According to one of the EU negotiators, the agreement is "not perfect but will allow for the much-needed financing to be directed to the most vulnerable."
Disagreement on fossil fuels. The most controversial issue during negotiations was the fate of oil, gas, and coal. Attempts to include plans for "phasing out fossil fuels" in the preliminary draft of decisions failed—in the final text, such wording is absent. Countries in the so-called "Arab group," along with several other oil and gas producers, categorically opposed any mentions of directly reducing fossil fuel use. They insisted that it is far more important for them to discuss carbon capture technologies and "clean" utilization of oil and gas rather than curtailing production. As a result of the compromise, the theme of the energy transition is outlined in general terms, with no quantitative commitments to reduce the share of oil and coal. This concession disappointed several Latin American countries (Colombia, Uruguay, Panama openly demanded stricter phrasing) but was necessary for consensus.
Reactions and prospects. The compromise agreement of COP30 has received mixed reviews. On the one hand, it preserved the multilateral climate process and ensured a flow of funds into adaptation and "green" technology initiatives. On the other hand, the absence of specifics regarding the abandonment of hydrocarbons has been noted by experts as a missed opportunity to accelerate the implementation of the Paris Agreement. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who previously called for a "road map" for the phased abandonment of coal, oil, and gas, expressed cautious optimism, noting that dialogue continues and key decisions are still ahead. Meanwhile, the location for the next conference has already been determined: COP31 in 2026 will be hosted by Turkey. Ankara has reached an agreement with Australia to co-organize the summit on Turkish territory. The world will closely watch whether bolder steps toward decarbonizing the global economy can be achieved at the next meeting.
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