Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of January 20, 2026: Global Oil and Gas Market, Sanctions, Energy Prices, Electricity, Renewables, Coal, and Oil Refining.
The latest developments in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of January 20, 2026, are attracting the attention of investors and market participants due to their contradictory nature. The year commenced with heightened geopolitical tensions: former hopes for a relaxation of sanctions were replaced by a new wave of confrontation following decisive actions by the United States to halt underground oil supplies, raising questions about the prospects for easing sanction pressures. At the same time, the global oil market remains relatively stable under the influence of fundamental supply and demand factors – Brent crude prices are holding around the mid-$60 per barrel mark, reflecting a fragile balance. The European gas market, on the other hand, has faced a new wave of volatility: a harsh winter is rapidly depleting storage levels to about 50% of capacity and driving gas prices higher, although record LNG supplies are alleviating shortages. Simultaneously, the global energy transition is gaining momentum – by the end of 2025, many regions set new records for "green" electricity generation, yet traditional resources continue to play a critical role in ensuring the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, following last year’s fuel crisis, authorities prolonged regulatory measures, which helped stabilize the situation in the domestic oil products market by the end of the year. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Excess Supply and Moderate Demand Keeping Prices Steady
Global oil prices remain at relatively moderate levels, influenced by a balance between abundant supply and cautious demand. The North Sea benchmark Brent is trading around $63–65 per barrel, while the American WTI blend hovers in the $58–60 range. These levels are approximately 15–20% lower than prices a year ago, reflecting a gradual correction following the extreme peaks of the 2022–2023 energy crisis. The market continues to show signs of oversupply: OPEC+ countries are generally adhering to a policy of limited production increases, but the anticipated resurgence of supplies from sanctioned sources (such as Venezuela) and rising output outside of OPEC are applying downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, global oil consumption is growing at a slower rate: analysts estimate that global demand will increase by less than 1 million barrels per day in 2026, significantly lower than in previous years. Geopolitical factors are causing short-term price fluctuations – recent unrest in Iran and related supply disruption risks have pushed Brent to multi-month highs, although subsequent de-escalation signals quickly cooled the market. Overall, fundamental trends indicate that without a significant surge in consumption (e.g., sharp demand growth in China) or new disruptions, supply will continue to outstrip demand. Many forecasts for 2026 align around an average price level in the low $60s per barrel. Thus, oil remains within a limited range: excess supply prevents prices from soaring, while potential risks keep them from crashing – the market is balancing in anticipation of further signals.
Gas Market: Winter Demand Drains Reserves and Heats Prices
The gas market is currently focused on the situation in Europe, where a cold winter has led to a sharp rise in prices and accelerated consumption of reserves. As of mid-January, underground gas storage (UGS) facilities in the EU have been depleted to about half their capacity: the total filling level has decreased to around 50%, representing a withdrawal of more than 30 billion cubic meters since the beginning of winter. Against this backdrop, exchange prices for gas have soared: spot prices at the TTF hub exceeded $450 per thousand cubic meters (approximately €40–45/MWh), having risen by about 30% over the past week. The main reasons are increased consumption during the severe cold and high demand on the energy sector, which forces a more active withdrawal of gas from reserves. However, the situation is eased by record liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries: LNG imports to Europe in January may reach around 10 million tons (20–25% more than a year earlier), and on some days in the middle of the month, historically maximum daily regasification volumes were recorded. Thanks to the influx of LNG, European countries are currently able to compensate for the decline in reserves and avoid severe fuel shortages, albeit at higher prices. If weather conditions normalize, price growth is expected to slow, stabilizing the market, especially given the reduced industrial demand. However, continued frosts or supply disruptions would maintain pressure on the European gas market. The further development of the situation will depend on the balance between incoming volumes of imports (including supplies from Norway and North Africa) and the intensity of gas withdrawals until the end of the winter season. In general, European energy is experiencing a test of resilience at the beginning of 2026 again, although accumulated reserves and diversification of sources provide hope to pass it without critical consequences.
International Politics: Tanker Incidents Escalate Sanction Confrontation
The geopolitical landscape in the oil and gas sphere has notably complicated in the first weeks of the year. On January 7, the U.S. Navy conducted an operation to intercept oil tankers suspected of circumventing sanctions: among the detained vessels was a tanker under the Russian flag associated with the transportation of Venezuelan oil. Moscow sharply condemned the capture of the ship in international waters, calling Washington's actions illegal, while the Venezuelan government demanded the return of the cargo and respect for sovereign rights. This incident effectively negated the emerging warming in dialogue between Russia and the United States, intensifying the sanction confrontation once again. Currently, no easing of the sanction regime is observed – all previously implemented restrictions on Russian energy resources remain in effect. Moreover, U.S. authorities have indicated readiness to tighten pressure: during 2025, new sanction packages against Russia were proposed in the U.S. Congress, and the administration openly warns of the possibility of introducing additional measures if there is no progress in resolving the crisis. Measures against third countries are not ruled out: Washington has discussed options for secondary sanctions, including trading tariffs against major consumers of Russian oil – for example, ideas were raised to impose 100% duties on exports from China to the U.S. if Beijing does not limit purchases of Russian energy resources. While such radical measures remain hypothetical for now, the overall atmosphere remains tense. Markets are closely monitoring developments in the situation: any hints of a resumption of constructive dialogue could ease the sanction rhetoric and improve investor sentiment, whereas further escalation threatens new barriers to global energy trade. Thus, political factors continue to exert significant influence on the global FEC, sustaining uncertainty for oil and gas companies and investors.
Asia: India and China Balancing Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Facing geopolitical pressures, New Delhi continues to advocate for its own interests in energy security. A sharp reduction in Russian oil and gas imports is deemed unacceptable by Indian leadership – these supplies cover a significant portion of the country's needs. Indian refiners are still actively purchasing Urals grade Russian oil, with exporters from Russia offering increased discounts (estimated at around $5–6 off Brent prices) to maintain this vital Indian market. Thanks to these favorable conditions, India not only meets its domestic demand at advantageous prices but also increases imports of oil products from Russia, filling the gap in its own fuel production. Meanwhile, the Indian government takes steps to reduce dependency on external sources in the long run. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a large-scale program for developing hydrocarbon production – emphasizing the exploration of deep-sea fields. In August 2025, the state company ONGC began drilling ultra-deep wells (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea, and preliminary results have been encouraging. Advancement of this “deep-water mission” is expected to help unlock new oil and gas reserves, bringing India closer to its goal of increasing self-sufficiency and decreasing import reliance.
- China: The largest economy in Asia is simultaneously increasing energy resource imports and boosting domestic production. Beijing has not joined the Western restrictions and is taking advantage of the situation to ramp up oil and gas purchases from Russia and the Middle East at relatively low prices. According to Chinese customs statistics, in 2024, the country imported about 212 million tons of oil and 246 billion cubic meters of natural gas, increasing these volumes by 1.8% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to the previous year. In 2025, imports remained at a high level – preliminary estimates indicate further (albeit more moderate) growth in oil (~2%) and gas (~5%) purchases. Simultaneously, China is increasing domestic production: national oil and gas companies extracted over 210 million tons of oil in 2025 (around +1% year-on-year) and approximately 210–220 billion cubic meters of natural gas (+5–6%). These increases partially compensate for the rising demand but do not eliminate the need for imports. Chinese authorities continue to invest in exploration and new production technologies, seeking to slow the growth of import dependence. However, considering the scale of the economy and the limitations of the local resource base, China’s dependence on external energy resource supplies will remain substantial: experts estimate that in the coming years, the country will cover at least 70% of its oil needs and around 40% of its gas needs through imports. Thus, India and China – the two largest Asian consumers – continue to play key roles in global raw material markets, combining import security strategies with the development of domestic production and infrastructure.
Energy Transition: Records in Renewable Energy and Continued Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy reached new heights in 2025. Many countries set record electricity generation figures from renewable sources (RES), with solar and wind power plants continuing to be actively commissioned. By the end of 2025, the share of “green” generation in Europe reached a historical maximum: in certain quarters, more than half of electricity generated in the EU came from solar, wind, and other RES. In the U.S., renewable energy has also strengthened its position – as of early 2026, its contribution to electricity generation consistently exceeds 30%, and the combined output of wind and solar plants has outpaced coal-fired electricity generation. China, being the world leader in installed RES capacity, adds tens of gigawatts of new “clean” capacity annually, continually breaking its own generation records. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), total global investments in the energy sector in 2025 exceeded $3 trillion, with over two-thirds of this amount directed toward the development of low-carbon technologies – renewable energy, nuclear generation, grid modernization, and energy storage systems. Such extensive funding accelerates the progress of the energy transition and contributes to lowering the costs of implementing new technologies.
At the same time, traditional energy carriers continue to play a significant role in ensuring the stability of energy systems. Despite several countries' plans to gradually reduce fossil fuel use, short-term demand for it remains high. In 2025, global coal consumption reached a new record – around 8.85 billion tons, which is only 0.5% more than the previous year, but underscores the ongoing importance of this resource. High coal consumption is concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region: China continues to burn colossal volumes (Chinese mines extract over 4 billion tons of coal per year, barely meeting domestic demand during peak periods), while India obtains over 70% of its electricity from coal-fired plants and annually increases its absolute coal consumption alongside economic growth. Other developing countries in Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, etc.) continue to commission new coal units to meet the growing demands of industry and households. Global coal suppliers – such as Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa – maintain high levels of production and export, which has allowed the coal market to return to more normal levels after extreme price spikes in 2022. Energy coal prices have fluctuated within a narrow range in recent months, reflecting the balance of supply and demand: consumers are supplied with fuel while producers receive stable sales at profitable prices. Experts agree that in the next 5–10 years, coal generation, especially in Asia, will retain a significant share in the energy balance even with accelerated growth of RES. Thus, the global energy transition is entering a phase of coexistence between old and new sources: renewable energy enjoys record growth, but traditional generation (coal, gas, oil) remains necessary to meet base demand and support the reliability of energy systems.
Russian Oil Product Market: Stabilization Following Last Year’s Crisis
In the domestic segment of Russia’s fuel market, after a spike in prices in the second half of 2025, a relative calm has emerged. The government and relevant agencies took emergency measures aimed at normalizing the situation and preventing a repeat of fuel shortages. Thanks to these measures, along with seasonal decreases in demand toward the end of the year, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have rolled back from peaks and stabilized. However, authorities continue to closely monitor the situation, extending key restrictions and support mechanisms for the industry into early 2026:
- Extension of Export Restrictions. The ban on the export of certain oil products (including diesel, marine fuel, and gasoil) for independent producers, introduced in the fall of 2025, has been extended at least until the end of February 2026. Now the restrictions cover all players: the embargo applies to all gasoline and diesel exports, including major oil companies and independent fuel firms, except in cases of special permits.
- Increase in Domestic Supplies. The Ministry of Energy of Russia has mandated oil companies to increase fuel shipments to the domestic market. Under agreements with producers, major refineries are directing priority volumes of gasoline and diesel to domestic exchange trading, limiting mutual exchange purchases. Additionally, a mechanism for sales quotas to small wholesalers is under consideration to eliminate shortages in certain regions and prevent monopolization by large traders.
- Subsidies and Dampening Mechanism. The state maintains financial support for refiners: budget subsidies and the reverse excise tax on oil products (dampener) compensate companies for part of the lost profit when selling fuel at domestic prices. These measures incentivize refineries to retain more products in the domestic market without reducing capacity utilization.
As a result of these combined efforts, by January 2026, the fuel crisis has largely been brought under control. Average retail prices for gasoline and diesel at gas stations have only increased moderately (within 5–7% year-on-year, which corresponds to inflation), despite the previous spike in exchange quotes. Filling stations are well supplied with fuel, and fuel sales volumes on the St. Petersburg Exchange were reaching record levels by the end of 2025, indicating ample supply. According to government statements, while the risk of shortages remains, the government is prepared to continue extending export restrictions and increasing interventions from reserves. An additional stabilizing factor has been the growth of fuel supplies from allied Belarus and the completion of repairs at major refineries, which increased the overall output of oil products. At the same time, threats to the market are not fully eliminated: the risk of unplanned disruptions remains – for example, in the form of accidents or drone attacks on oil infrastructure, as has occurred previously. Nevertheless, the beginning of 2026 finds the Russian oil product market in a relatively balanced state. The government, relevant ministries, and FEC companies will continue to monitor the situation and, if necessary, implement new measures to ensure the stable supply of fuel to the country and keep consumer prices within acceptable limits.
