FEC News September 14, 2025: Sanctions, Oil and Gas Price Surge, Fuel Market Stabilization in Russia

Current Energy Sector News as of September 14, 2025: Sanction Pressure from the U.S. and EU, Rising Oil and Gas Prices, the Situation in Russia's Oil Products Market, Measures to Stabilize the Domestic Market, Renewable Energy Trends, and Global Energy Prospects.

Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of September 14, 2025, are characterized by heightened geopolitical tension and ambiguous market impact. Following the summer meeting between leaders of Russia and the U.S., there has been no direct progress in relations, and the sanction pressure is only increasing—Washington is looking for new leverage, even considering trade tariffs against key buyers of Russian energy resources. The global oil market is showing moderate price growth: Brent crude prices have risen to the upper tier of $60 per barrel amidst a blend of factors related to supply surplus and new risks. The European gas market continues to appear relatively stable—gas storage facilities are almost fully stocked; however, uncertainty surrounding future supplies has led to a slight increase in prices. Concurrently, the global energy transition is gaining momentum: many countries are reporting new records in renewable energy generation, even though traditional resources remain in play to ensure grid reliability. In Russia, which experienced a severe fuel crisis in August, authorities are implementing unprecedented measures to stabilize the domestic fuel market—by mid-September, the situation began to normalize, wholesale prices ceased to reach record levels, and supply shortages at gas stations were localized. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of the current date.

Oil Market: Price Increase Amid Sanction Risks and Factor Balancing

Global oil prices showed a slight uptick last week, remaining within a relatively narrow range due to the mixed influence of fundamental factors. The North Sea Brent blend is trading around $66–68 per barrel, while U.S. WTI is hovering around $63–65. Current prices are about 10% lower than year-ago levels, reflecting an ongoing market correction following the peaks of the energy crisis in 2022–2023. Price dynamics are influenced by several key factors:

• OPEC+ Production Increase: The oil alliance continues to gradually boost supply in the market. In September 2025, the total production quota for deal participants was raised by approximately 0.55 million barrels per day, continuing the trend of recent months. Since April, restrictive quotas have been systematically eased, leading to an increase in global oil and petroleum product stocks.
• Slowing Demand: The growth rate of global oil consumption is declining. The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its demand growth forecast for 2025 to around +0.7 million barrels/day (compared to over 2.5 million barrels/day in 2023). Even OPEC's estimates are now more subdued—around +1.3 million barrels per day for 2025. A slowing global economy, high prices from previous years, and declining industrial growth in China are limiting consumer appetites and promoting energy conservation.
• Geopolitical Risks: The sanction standoff has entered a new phase. The lack of progress in negotiations means that U.S. sanction pressure on Russia remains and, in some contexts, intensifies. Washington is openly discussing severe measures—up to 100% tariffs—against countries that continue to purchase Russian oil, adding a risk premium to the market. In parallel, the situation in the Middle East is tense: recent strikes against Hamas targets have heightened tensions, keeping oil prices elevated.

The combined effects of these factors keep the global oil market in a state close to balance, with a slight oversupply over demand. Despite the weekly rise in prices, no sharp price jumps have occurred—Brent remains significantly below last year's highs. Traders are adopting a wait-and-see approach, monitoring both fundamental indicators (stocks, production levels) and political signals. Many analysts believe that if current trends persist, the average Brent price may fall to about $50 per barrel in 2026. So far, the moderate price growth at the end of summer indicates more of a temporary market reaction to new risks rather than the beginning of a prolonged rally.

Gas Market: Europe Nearing Full Storage, Prices Slightly Increasing

Within the gas market, the main focus remains on Europe. EU countries have rapidly filled their underground gas storage ahead of autumn—by September, the filling level of European UGS facilities exceeded 90% of total capacity, significantly ahead of schedule and nearly reaching the target for November 1. This buffer before the winter season helps to stabilize price fluctuations. However, amid ongoing uncertainty regarding long-term supplies, market prices for gas have shown a slight increase: October futures at the TTF hub rose to approximately €35/MWh (around $400 per thousand cubic meters) compared to about €30/MWh a month earlier. Nevertheless, current price levels remain relatively moderate by historical standards.

An active influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG) continues: European terminals have accepted record volumes in recent months. LNG imports have compensated for the decline in pipeline flows and accelerated the filling of storage facilities. In July, Europe imported more than 11 billion cubic meters of LNG (about 37% more than a year ago), and similar high volumes likely continued in August. As a result, the balance of supply and demand in the European gas market is currently quite stable. A key risk ahead is the potential for increased competition for LNG from Asia if economic growth and energy demand in the Asia-Pacific region accelerate towards winter. However, at the moment, industry and energy sectors in Europe are benefiting from a comfortable level of reserves and relatively stable prices. This creates favorable conditions ahead of the heating season, although market participants remain vigilant to any external shocks.

International Politics: Escalation of Sanctions and Global Restructuring of Energy Links

In the realm of international energy policy, there is a further escalation of the sanction standoff. Following the lack of tangible results at the Alaska summit, the U.S. has adopted a more hardline rhetoric and actions. The American administration, led by President Donald Trump, is intensifying pressure on partners worldwide to limit Russia's energy export revenues. In early September, both the Washington Post and Bloomberg reported that Trump, in discussions with European leaders, expressed willingness to impose large tariffs against India and China if they do not reduce Russian oil purchases—on the condition that the European Union also takes similar steps. The U.S. Treasury Department also confirmed that tightening sanctions against Moscow is possible, but it will only be effective if coordinated actions are taken with allies.

On the European side, further steps are being taken to sever energy dependence on the Russian Federation. As stated on September 10 by U.S. Secretary of Energy Christopher Wright, Brussels promised Washington to fully cease purchases of Russian gas by the end of 2026. In other words, from January 1, 2027, neither pipeline nor liquefied gas from Russia should enter EU countries. Until the end of this year and into 2026, Europeans plan to minimize imports, limiting themselves to occasional spot purchases. Meanwhile, Europe is increasing cooperation with alternative suppliers—long-term contracts for LNG supplies from the U.S., Qatar are actively being concluded, and plans are underway to increase terminal capacity for receiving liquefied gas.

All these measures indicate that sanction pressure on the Russian fuel and energy complex is reaching an unprecedented level. If the threats materialize, Russia may lose traditional sales markets in Europe almost entirely in the coming years, while trade barriers complicate the redirection of flows to Asia. At the same time, risks of retaliatory measures remain: for example, imposing tariffs against India and China will inevitably create tensions in global trade and may slow the growth of developing economies. Markets are closely monitoring developments in this situation. Any new sanctions actions or, conversely, signals for dialogue between key powers could significantly impact investor sentiment in the energy sector. For now, the status quo remains tense: negotiation processes are stalled, and the likelihood of further escalation of the sanction war is perceived as high.

Asia: India and China Continue Imports and Seek Energy Supply Balance

The two largest Asian energy resource consumers—India and China—occupy a special position in the current market configuration, balancing between the benefits of cheap energy imports from Russia and Western pressure. India has clearly indicated that sharply reducing the purchase of Russian oil and gas is unacceptable for its internal energy security. New Delhi continues to actively purchase Russian oil, negotiating favorable conditions. According to traders, Indian importers still receive Urals crude at a discount of about $4–5 to Brent prices, allowing them to keep domestic fuel prices stable. In addition, India is increasing imports of Russian oil products (diesel, fuel oil) to meet industrial and transportation sector demand.

At the same time, the Indian leadership is taking strategic steps to reduce long-term dependence on imports. In August, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a national program for exploring deepwater oil and gas fields. The state company ONGC has already begun drilling ultra-deep wells (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea, and initial results are seen as promising. This "deepwater mission" aims to unlock new hydrocarbon reserves and bring India closer to a partially self-sufficient energy supply within the next decade.

China, as the largest economy in Asia, is also focused on fully utilizing favorable conditions for imports while stimulating its domestic production. Chinese importers remain the leading buyers of Russian oil and gas: Beijing has not joined the sanctions and is taking advantage of the situation to purchase raw materials at reduced prices. In 2024, China imported about 213 million tons of oil and 246 billion cubic meters of natural gas, exceeding previous year's figures by 1.8% and 6.2%, respectively. In 2025, imports continue to grow, although the growth rate has slowed due to high bases. Simultaneously, China is increasing domestic oil and gas production: from January to July 2025, national companies produced 126.6 million tons of oil (+1.3% year-on-year) and 152.5 billion cubic meters of gas (+6%). The increase in domestic production partly offsets rising demand but does not negate significant reliance on imports.

The Chinese authorities continue to invest in developing oil fields and implementing new technologies to enhance well productivity; however, considering the immense scale of the economy, China's dependence on external energy supplies will remain substantial. Analysts estimate that in the coming years, the country will import at least 70% of the oil it consumes and about 40% of its gas. Thus, India and China continue to play a key role in global raw material markets, combining strategies for securing foreign imports with the development of their own resource base. Despite external pressure, both powers are strengthening energy cooperation with Russia and other suppliers, seeking to diversify routes and currencies to minimize sanction risks to their economies.

Energy Transition: Records in Renewable Generation and the Role of Traditional Energy

The global transition to clean energy continues to gain momentum. Many countries are recording new records in electricity generation from renewable sources (RES), indicating a steady increase in the share of solar and wind in the energy balance. In Europe, by the end of 2024, the total output from solar and wind power plants exceeded electricity generation from coal and gas-fired power plants for the first time. This trend continued into 2025: due to new capacity coming online, the share of “green” electricity in the EU continues to rise, while coal use is declining after a temporary uptick during the 2022–2023 crisis. In the U.S., renewable energy has also reached historic levels—at the beginning of 2025, more than 30% of all generation came from RES, with the total output from wind and solar plants surpassing generation from coal plants for the first time.

China, the world leader in installed renewable capacity, adds tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines each year, continuously updating its records for "green" electricity production. Companies and investors worldwide are pouring massive funds into clean energy development. According to IEA estimates, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 will exceed $3 trillion, with more than half of these funds directed towards RES projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems. Thus, financial flows are increasingly transitioning from the fossil fuel segment to clean energy, laying the groundwork for accelerating the energy transition.

At the same time, energy systems continue to rely on traditional generation to ensure stability and cover peak loads. The rising share of solar and wind generation presents challenges for balancing the grid during hours when RES do not generate electricity (nighttime or calm winds). In some cases, gas-fired and even coal-fired power plants are still engaged to meet peak demand and reserve capacity. For example, in certain regions of Europe last winter, coal-fired plants had to briefly ramp up production during windless weather, despite the environmental costs. Governments in various countries are actively investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped hydro storage) and "smart" grids capable of flexibly managing loads. These measures are aimed at improving supply reliability as the share of RES grows.

Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable sources could become the leading producers of electricity globally, definitively surpassing coal. However, in the coming years, there remains a need for support for classical power plants as a safeguard against disruptions. Consequently, the global energy transition is reaching new heights—“green” energy is setting records, while traditional capacities are gradually receding to the background. Nonetheless, the period of coexistence and seeking balance between them will continue until energy storage and management technologies catch up with the rapid growth of RES.

Coal Market: High Asian Demand Maintains Stability

Despite the rapid development of renewable energy, the global coal market continues to hold stable positions and remains an important part of the global energy balance. Demand for coal products remains high, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and electricity demand support the intensive use of this fuel. China, the world's largest consumer and producer of coal, continues to burn coal at nearly record rates in 2025. Chinese mines extract over 4 billion tons of coal yearly, covering a lion's share of domestic needs. However, this barely suffices to meet peak demand during extreme loads (e.g., hot summers with mass air conditioning use). India, possessing abundant coal reserves, is also increasing its usage: over 70% of the country's electricity is still generated at coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption is rising alongside the economy.

Other developing countries in Asia, such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Bangladesh, are moving forward with plans to build new coal-fired power plants to meet the growing energy needs of their populations and industries. While more states declare intentions to reduce their coal shares in the future for climate goals, in the short term, this resource remains indispensable for reliable energy supply for billions of people.

Global coal extraction and trade have adapted to the ongoing high demand. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—have increased production and external shipments of thermal coal in recent years. This has helped keep coal market prices relatively stable. Following price peaks in 2022, energy coal prices have returned to more normal levels and have fluctuated within a narrow range in recent months. The supply-demand balance appears balanced: consumers receive guaranteed fuel volumes, and producers have stable sales at profitable prices.

Experts agree that in the next 5–10 years, coal generation, especially in Asia, will maintain a significant role, despite global decarbonization efforts. Thus, the coal sector is currently experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand is consistently high, prices are moderate, and the sector continues to serve as one of the cornerstones of global energy, even amid the transition to cleaner sources.

Russian Oil Products Market: Measures Stabilize Prices and Supply

On the internal fuel market in Russia, a gradual stabilization of the situation is emerging after a turbulent August. In the first half of August, wholesale exchange prices for gasoline and diesel in the country hit historic records, exceeding even the peaks of 2023. Fuel shortages were felt in several regions—primarily in the Far East and South—due to a combination of factors: high seasonal demand (summer transportation and harvest campaigns), planned repairs at several refineries, and unscheduled production disruptions. In response, the government took emergency steps and increased market regulation. Under the chairmanship of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, a set of measures was developed to cool price frenzy and increase supply in the domestic market, including:

• Extension of Export Ban on Fuel: The complete ban on the export of motor gasoline and diesel from Russia, introduced on August 1, has been extended until the end of September. The restriction applies to all producers—from vertically integrated oil companies to independent refineries and oil depots—with the aim of directing as many volumes as possible to the domestic market.
• Possible Partial Resumption of Exports from October: Subject to normalization of market balance, restrictions are planned to be eased from October. Major refineries may be allowed to resume some export shipments, while small players are likely to remain under a ban. The decision will depend on the dynamics of wholesale prices and fuel stocks at the end of September.
• Enhanced Monitoring of Fuel Distribution: One reason for the shortage was the unscheduled shutdown of several refineries (accidents and drone attacks in August knocked out capacities at several plants). Authorities have tightened market oversight: producers are instructed to first meet domestic market needs and exclude cross-purchasing practices between companies that previously inflated prices. The Ministry of Energy, the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service, and the St. Petersburg Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange are working on long-term measures to transition to direct contracts between refineries and distribution companies, bypassing the exchange to remove unnecessary intermediaries from the sales chain.
• Subsidies and Dampening Mechanism: The state continues to provide financial support to oil companies to keep fuel inside the country. Budget subsidies and the reverse excise tax (“dampener”) compensate companies for some of the lost revenues from missed export earnings, encouraging increased supplies at gas stations in the regions.

The combination of these measures is already yielding initial results. By mid-September, the frenzy in exchange trading started to subside: wholesale prices for gasoline retreated from peak levels. If at the beginning of August, a ton of AI-92 and AI-95 cost over 72 and 82 thousand rubles, respectively, in September, the prices fell by about 5-7%. Retail prices at gas stations have risen much more modestly—about 5-6% since the beginning of the year, which is only slightly above overall inflation. Authorities state they will continue to act preemptively: if necessary, export restrictions can be extended, and resources from the federal reserve fund are being rapidly directed to problematic regions.

According to government estimates, by September there will be a stable surplus of gasoline in the domestic market. Scheduled repairs at refineries, which were idle over the summer, are concluding, and monthly gasoline production is expected to be around 3.4 million tons, while average domestic consumption is about 3.2 million. Additional volumes are directed to replenish stocks and supply remote regions. For instance, about 120 fuel trucks daily are shipped to Primorsky Krai beyond earlier volumes, and hundreds of railway tankers with fuel are on their way to Crimea. These efforts have already helped ease the supply shortages in the most problematic spots: automotive fuel is now available at gas stations in all regions, although some areas still have limits on sales per person to prevent speculative demand.

In summary, by mid-September, the Russian government has largely managed to stabilize the situation in the domestic fuel market, although issues are not completely resolved. Oversight of the FEC market remains at the highest level: the specialized headquarters led by A. Novak continues daily monitoring, and additional mechanisms are ready to be introduced at the slightest threat of imbalance. Investors and market participants in the FEC region of the CIS are closely watching developments: the extensive sanction standoff, the redistribution of global oil and gas flows, and the authorities' efforts to adapt to new conditions will determine the sector's outlook in the coming months.