Current News in the Fuel and Energy Complex as of September 9, 2025: Balancing Oil Prices and Oil Products, OPEC+ Decisions, Record Gas Reserves in the EU, Energy Transition, Sanctions, and Stabilization of Fuel Prices in Russia. A Comprehensive Overview for Investors and Market Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of September 9, 2025, present a mixed picture for investors and market participants. On one hand, the global oil market maintains a precarious balance in the mid-$60 range per barrel, as an oversupply and slowing demand continue to suppress price growth. On the other hand, geopolitical tensions are once again escalating—Western countries are tightening sanctions against Russia's energy sector, and the protracted conflict surrounding Ukraine continues to pose risks to supply stability.
Meanwhile, Europe is confidently preparing for the winter season by rapidly filling gas storage facilities and maintaining moderate gas prices. Concurrently, the global energy transition is gaining momentum, with many countries setting new records in renewable energy generation, although traditional resources remain essential for system reliability. In Russia, following an unprecedented spike in motor fuel prices in August, measures implemented by authorities (including an extended ban on fuel exports) are gradually stabilizing the domestic market.
Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of the current date.
Oil Market: A Fragile Price Balance Between Surplus and Risks
By the beginning of autumn, global oil prices exhibit relative stability. The benchmark Brent blend has settled in the range of approximately $65–67 per barrel, while American WTI is trading at $62–64. Current quotes are about 10% lower than last year's levels, reflecting a gradual normalization of the market after the peaks of the 2022–2023 energy crisis. Several factors are influencing price dynamics:
- Cautious Increase in OPEC+ Production. During an online meeting on September 7, member countries of the alliance agreed to raise the collective oil production quota in October by only 137,000 barrels per day. The pace of supply increase has significantly slowed compared to previous months—by comparison, production is increasing by 547,000 b/d in September. Thus, the alliance has almost quadrupled its monthly growth, signaling a desire to avoid market oversaturation. In upcoming OPEC+ meetings, there may even be a pause in further easing restrictions, considering signs of a surplus forming and a rise in global oil stocks.
- Record Non-OPEC Production. Alongside the cartel's actions, additional pressure on prices is being exerted by suppliers not included in the deal. Specifically, oil production in the U.S. has reached an all-time high, exceeding 13.5 million barrels per day this summer. This is the largest single-nation contribution to global supply. Moreover, new barrels are actively coming onto the market from several other countries, such as Brazil and Guyana, which have increased production and exports in recent years. Growing competition among producers is reducing the influence of OPEC+ decisions on price dynamics.
- Weak Demand Growth. Global oil consumption is increasing much more slowly than in previous years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a growth in global demand in 2025 of only ~0.7 million b/d (over 2.5 million b/d in 2023). OPEC's own estimates have been revised to ~+1.2 million b/d for the year. The reasons include a slowdown in the global economy following a period of rapid recovery and the effects of high prices in previous years, which have encouraged energy conservation. An additional factor is the weakening industrial activity in China, which limits the appetite of one of the world's largest oil consumers.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty. The protracted conflict and sanctions confrontation create additional nervousness in the oil market. The lack of progress in peace negotiations means sanctions remain in place, with the likelihood of new restrictions being introduced (the U.S. has previously threatened 100% tariffs on Russian oil imports in the event of diplomatic failures). Simultaneously, the sanctions themselves and military risks (including recent drone attacks on oil infrastructure) add a "risk premium" to prices, preventing sharp downward movements. As a result, geopolitical factors are restraining a deeper price decline, although they do not provide a basis for a new rally.
Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, commented to Izvestia: The October increase in oil production of 137,000 barrels per day is the most modest increase in the past six months. Therefore, this OPEC+ decision will not lead to market destabilization. In the expert's opinion, Brent oil prices will remain below $70 per barrel until the end of the current year and may drop to around $60 in 2026.
The combined influence of these factors creates a surplus of supply over demand in the oil market, keeping the situation close to a surplus. Exchange rates confidently remain below the last year's highs. Many analysts believe that if current trends continue, by 2026, the average Brent price could drop to the $55–60 per barrel range. However, the potential for a sharp price collapse is limited by geopolitical tensions and the cautious position of OPEC+.
Gas Market: Record Reserves in Europe Maintain Prices at Moderate Levels
In the gas market, Europe remains the focal point, where EU countries have proactively built substantial fuel stocks ahead of winter. By early September, underground gas storage in the European Union is over 90% full, significantly ahead of schedule and exceeding the target level set for November. The active import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) during the summer months has enabled rapid accumulation of record reserves of blue fuel. As a result, gas future prices are held at a relatively low level: futures on the TTF hub are trading around €30/MWh (approximately $400 per thousand cubic meters)—substantially lower than the peaks observed during the 2022 crisis. This price situation significantly eases the burden on European industry and energy systems ahead of the heating season.
However, uncertainty persists: a potential increase in LNG demand in Asia this winter could divert some supplies and push prices upwards. For now, the situation for the EU is favorable: record reserves and stable supplies allow a relatively confident entry into the winter period. European regulators emphasize their intention to continue the policy of maintaining high gas volumes in storage to ensure energy security.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Intensified Pressure on the Energy Sector
The United States and its allies are increasing sanctions pressure on the energy sector against the backdrop of the protracted conflict in Ukraine. Following the failure of peace initiatives, Washington has imposed punitive tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil (similar measures threaten China if it significantly increases imports from Russia). Meanwhile, the European Union has expanded sanction restrictions targeting transport companies and traders assisting in circumventing the existing oil embargo. The ongoing confrontation intensifies uncertainty for companies and investors.
At the same time, there has been an increase in drone attacks on Russian FEC facilities. In recent weeks, several incidents have temporarily incapacitated individual oil refining capacities, including drone strikes on major refineries and export infrastructure sections. Although global supplies currently compensate for these local losses, further escalation of military risks could seriously destabilize commodity prices. Thus, geopolitics remains a key factor of uncertainty for the global energy market: external political pressure and the risk of infrastructure incidents continue to influence player sentiment and long-term industry plans.
Asia: India and China Balance Beneficial Imports with Rising Production
- India. Facing Western sanctions pressure, New Delhi openly states its inability to sharply reduce its critical imports of Russian energy resources. These supplies play a key role in the country’s energy security. To maintain the Indian market, Russian suppliers are offering significant discounts: the Urals blend is sold to India a few dollars cheaper than Brent. Consequently, India continues to actively purchase large volumes of oil and oil products from Russia on favorable terms, satisfying its growing demand. Simultaneously, the Indian leadership is focusing on reducing import dependency in the long term. On August 15, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a national program for exploring deep-water oil and gas fields. Under this plan, the state company ONGC is already drilling wells in the Andaman Sea, aiming to increase its hydrocarbon production in the future. This "deep-water mission" aims to accelerate the discovery of new reserves and bring India closer to its goal of energy independence.
- China. The largest economy in Asia is simultaneously increasing energy imports while boosting domestic production. Beijing has not joined the Western sanctions, remaining one of the top buyers of Russian oil and gas at favorable prices. Domestic oil and gas production in China is also rising: since the beginning of 2025, national companies have extracted approximately 127 million tons of oil (+1% compared to last year) and 152.5 billion cubic meters of gas (+6%). However, this is still insufficient to meet the economy's needs: China continues to import over 70% of its consumed oil and about 40% of its gas. Seeking to strengthen long-term energy security, Moscow and Beijing recently reached an agreement to construct a new pipeline, "Power of Siberia 2," to Western China. The realization of this project in the coming years will significantly increase Russian gas exports to the Chinese market. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers—India and China—will continue to play a key role in the global raw materials markets, combining strategies for securing imports with developing their own resource bases.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and New Challenges for Energy Systems
The global transition to clean energy in 2025 continues to gain momentum, reaching new heights. In the European Union, the total electricity generation from solar and wind farms surpassed generation from coal and gas plants for the first time by the end of 2024 (this trend persisted into 2025). In the U.S., the share of renewable sources in electricity production exceeded 30%, marking a historic record for the American energy system. China, the world leader in installed renewable energy capacity, annually brings dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines online, continuously breaking its own records for "green" generation. According to the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 will exceed $3 trillion, with more than half of this funding directed to renewable projects, modernization of grid infrastructure, and energy storage systems.
The rapid growth of solar and wind share, however, also brings new technical challenges. During periods when the sun does not shine or the wind dies down, traditional power plants' backup capacity remains necessary to cover peak demand. Many countries are actively investing in creating large-scale energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped hydro storage) and "smart" grids to enhance energy supply stability. Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable energy could take the lead globally in electricity generation volume, finally overtaking coal. However, in the coming years, there will still be a need to support classic power plants as insurance against disruptions. Thus, the global energy transition reaches new records but requires a fine balance between green technologies and traditional resources to ensure system stability.
Coal: High Demand with Relatively Stable Prices
Despite efforts to decarbonize, the coal sector in 2025 remains a large and stable part of the global energy mix. Demand for coal products remains high, primarily in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and electricity needs support intense consumption of this fuel. China, the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, extracts over 4 billion tons annually, with virtually all of this volume burned in domestic power plants. During peak summer loads, even these record volumes fall short, forcing China to import additional batches of coal to meet demand. In India, about 70% of electricity is still generated from coal-fired power plants, and coal consumption is rising alongside the economy. Several other developing countries in Asia are also building new coal-fired power plants to meet their rapidly growing electricity demand.
The world's largest coal exporters (Indonesia, Australia, Russia, etc.) have significantly increased their production in recent years. This supply growth has helped to lower prices after record peaks in 2021–2022. Currently, coal prices are held at relatively moderate levels, providing power sectors with affordable raw materials, while mining companies enjoy stable profits. Many countries declare plans to phase out coal generation; however, in the near future, this resource remains indispensable for ensuring reliable electricity supply to millions of people, especially in Asian countries. Thus, the global coal market is in relative equilibrium: demand is consistently high, while prices remain moderate.
Russian Oil Products Market: Export Restrictions Stabilize Fuel Prices
In the Russian fuel market, decisive steps have been taken to normalize prices for oil products by the end of summer. In August, wholesale exchange prices for gasoline and diesel reached new historical highs amid frantic demand, disruptions at several refineries, and extraordinarily profitable exports. This forced authorities to prolong and tighten restrictive measures. A comprehensive set of measures currently being implemented includes:
- Extension of the Export Ban. The Russian government extended the complete ban on the export of automotive gasoline and diesel fuel until September 30 (the restriction, imposed in early August, was initially set for several weeks). This measure directs additional volumes of oil products to the domestic market, increasing fuel supply within the country.
- Strict Supply Control. Oversight of fuel distribution within Russia has been intensified. Refiners are instructed to prioritize domestic market needs, excluding intermediary resale of resources on the exchange. Authorities encourage direct contracts between refiners and sales companies, bypassing exchange platforms. The damping mechanism for compensations ("reverse excise tax") continues to operate, reimbursing producers for part of their losses and encouraging the allocation of sufficient fuel volumes to gas stations.
Thanks to these measures, by the end of August, the growth of wholesale prices had ceased, and retail prices at gas stations remained under control (since the beginning of the year, they have increased by less than 5%, aligning with overall inflation). The government states its readiness to extend restrictions if necessary and utilize additional resources to prevent fuel shortages. As a result, the situation in the oil products market is gradually stabilizing—sharp price spikes are not forecasted for the fall. Thus, the set of decisions taken helps to calm the motor fuel market and keep prices for end consumers within acceptable bounds.
