Current Energy Market News as of September 13, 2025: Stable Oil and Gas Prices, Export Flows, Stabilization Measures in the Russian Fuel Market, Renewable Energy Records Worldwide, and Europe's Preparation for Winter. A Detailed Overview for Investors and Energy Market Participants.
The current situation in the fuel and energy complex as of September 13, 2025 is characterized by a relative balance in global markets and noticeable activity in the sector. Global oil prices remain at a stable level: the North Sea benchmark Brent is trading in the mid-range of $60 per barrel (around $65–67), while the American WTI is about $62–64 per barrel. These levels are approximately 10% lower than a year ago, reflecting a gradual cooling of the market after the peaks of the energy crisis in 2022–2023. Total oil supply currently exceeds demand, which restrains price increases. At the same time, geopolitical risks prevent prices from falling too deep: escalating conflicts in the Middle East periodically add a “risk premium” to prices and lead to short-term spikes. The European gas market is confidently moving through the preparatory period for winter: EU countries have accumulated gas volumes close to record levels in underground storage, keeping spot gas prices at moderate levels significantly below the extreme peaks of last winter. Simultaneously, there is a rapid energy transition worldwide: many countries are breaking records for renewable energy (RE) capacity installation, although traditional resources are still needed for the reliability of energy systems.
Russia continues to adapt to external constraints and reorient its energy resource exports towards eastern markets. Amid ongoing sanctions pressure from the West, new contracts for oil and gas supplies to friendly countries in Asia, such as China, India, and Central Asian nations, are being signed. Large-scale infrastructure projects (oil and gas pipelines) are also being implemented to compensate for the decrease in exports to Europe and strengthen energy partnerships with the East. In the domestic fuel market, after a summer spike in prices, the Russian authorities have successfully implemented a series of stabilization measures: export restrictions on petroleum products have been extended, control over gasoline and diesel availability at gas stations has been intensified, and the damping mechanism for subsidies has been adjusted. Early results are already apparent—wholesale fuel prices have stopped rising, and retail prices have stabilized. Below is a detailed overview of key events and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus Keeps Prices Stable Amid Geopolitical Risks
As autumn begins, a fragile equilibrium has been established in the global oil market. The price per barrel remains relatively stable due to a combination of oversupply and moderate demand. At the same time, geopolitical tensions occasionally cause fluctuations in prices. Several key factors influence price dynamics:
- OPEC+ Policy. At an extraordinary online meeting on September 7, member countries of the alliance agreed on a slight increase in production quotas starting in October—approximately +137,000 barrels per day in total. However, in September, more significant easements are in effect—the total allowable production level among participants has risen by about 0.55 million b/d. Not all participants adhere strictly to limits: according to the IEA, some countries (e.g., Kazakhstan and Iraq) exceeded their quotas in August, and the total production of the group was more than 1 million b/d above agreed levels. Thus, the alliance strives to avoid market oversaturation, but the actual increase in supplies poses the risk of creating a new surplus. If signs of surplus intensify, OPEC+ may reconsider plans and suspend further production increases.
- Record Production Outside OPEC. Non-OPEC countries are also actively increasing oil production. This summer, daily oil production in the U.S. exceeded 13.5 million barrels, setting a historic high and reinforcing America's position as the largest producer. Additional volumes are coming from other regions: exports from Brazil, Guyana, and new oil projects in Africa continue to rise. Increased competition among exporters reduces the influence of OPEC+ decisions on the global oil market and maintains high supply levels.
- Slowing Demand Growth. Global oil consumption is increasing much more slowly than in previous years. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2025 global demand is expected to grow by only ~0.7 million b/d, while in 2023 the increase exceeded 2.5 million. OPEC's forecast is slightly higher—around +1.2 million b/d in 2025. Restraining factors include the overall slowdown in the global economy following the post-pandemic recovery phase and the effects of high prices in previous years, which encouraged energy conservation. Additionally, there is a slight weakening of industrial activity in China: the Chinese economy is now growing at lower rates, limiting the appetite of the world's second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitical Risks. Ongoing instability in several regions prevents oil prices from declining significantly. In September, the military conflict in the Middle East escalated, causing a brief spike in prices to local highs in recent months. Although the direct impact of this crisis on global oil supplies is currently limited, traders are pricing in a premium in case of escalation. Any hints of threats to oil infrastructure or shipping in the region are immediately reflected in market prices. As a result, geopolitics plays a dual role: on the one hand, preventing oil prices from falling too low, and on the other, not creating conditions for sharp price increases, maintaining uncertainty in the market.
Gas Market: High Stocks in Europe Ensure Price Stability
In the gas market, the focus is on Europe, where preparations for the autumn-winter period are proceeding quite successfully. EU countries have proactively filled their underground gas storage with volumes close to maximum capacity. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, total stocks have surpassed 87-90 billion cubic meters—only slightly below last year's records, but significantly above the long-term average for this date. By the beginning of autumn, Europe has confidently achieved over 80% of the total storage capacity, steadily moving towards the target of 90% fullness by November 1. Thanks to this, futures and spot gas prices remain relatively low: by late summer, prices hovered around $380–400 per thousand cubic meters, notably lower than last year's peaks. The European market feels secure—even the start of the heating season does not trigger panic, given the accumulated gas reserves and diversified supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, experts note that further storage replenishment is becoming more challenging: due to limited supply growth in the global market, EU countries must compete for LNG with Asian buyers. Nevertheless, the European gas sector is currently approaching winter in a balanced state, with gas prices fluctuating within a comfortable range for consumers.
Geopolitics: Sanction Opposition and Regional Conflicts
Political factors continue to exert a significant influence on the global energy sector. The U.S. and their allies continue to tighten sanctions on Russia amid the extended crisis surrounding Ukraine. In addition to existing price caps on Russian oil, new sanctions are being imposed against shipping companies, insurance, and trading intermediaries involved in exporting Russian energy resources circumventing the embargo. Washington links the easing of its position to progress in resolving the conflict: as long as there is no diplomatic movement, Western countries threaten to impose additional restrictions. Meanwhile, non-Western nations continue to cooperate with Russia on favorable terms, which frustrates officials in Europe and the U.S. and leads to targeted measures against Moscow’s partners.
Another destabilizing factor remains the increasing tensions in the Middle East. In September, armed conflict flared up again in one region, which briefly pushed oil prices to several-month highs. Although the direct impact of this outbreak of violence on global oil supplies has been limited, the market reacted instantly: investors priced in additional risk. Any potential expansion of the conflict, especially if oil fields or transportation of raw materials are threatened, can trigger a new surge in energy prices. Thus, the geopolitical environment simultaneously impacts the energy sector: on one hand, it supports prices from decreasing, while on the other, it increases volatility and overall uncertainty for investors and market participants.
Asia: Increasing Import of Energy Resources and Strengthening Domestic Production
- India. Facing Western sanctions pressure, New Delhi openly states the impossibility of sharply reducing dependence on critically important Russian energy sources. Imported oil and petroleum products from Russia play a key role in meeting India’s rapidly growing demand. Indian companies continue to purchase Russian resources, taking advantage of substantial discounts—traders estimate the discount to be $4–5 to the price of Brent. Even under the threat of secondary sanctions and U.S. tariffs, supplies are not stopping. Simultaneously, the Indian government is taking measures to reduce future reliance on imports: large-scale programs are underway to increase domestic production. Specifically, the state company ONGC is actively conducting exploratory drilling on the deep-water shelf, aiming to discover new oil and gas fields. These efforts are intended to ultimately increase the share of domestic production and diminish the economy's vulnerability to external shocks.
- China. Not having joined Western sanctions, Beijing remains one of the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas on favorable terms, while simultaneously increasing domestic production. According to Chinese customs statistics, in 2024, the PRC imported over 210 million tons of oil and about 245 billion cubic meters of natural gas, surpassing the previous year's figures by 2–6%. The growth continues in 2025 at a more moderate pace due to a high base. Despite efforts to boost production (in the first seven months of 2025, China produced around 126 million tons of oil and 152 billion cubic meters of gas, which is 1–6% more than the previous year), the Chinese economy still relies on imports for about 70% of its oil needs and 40% of its gas needs. Aiming to enhance energy security, Beijing is accelerating joint projects with Russia. During the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, the parties signed binding agreements to construct the main gas pipeline “Power of Siberia 2” through Mongolia and to expand export routes. These steps will ultimately allow China to receive up to 100 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually, further linking the energy systems of both countries and reducing the risks of fuel shortages for China.
Comment: “In the long term, the project is beneficial for both countries: China can mitigate the risks of shortages that have intensified after trade wars, while Russia can increase export revenues, which are crucial for macroeconomic stability,” noted Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, in a comment for the newspaper “Vzglyad”.
Overall, the largest economies in Asia continue to play a key role in global raw material markets. India and China are simultaneously increasing domestic production capacities while boosting imports of available resources, striving to meet the needs of their rapidly growing economies. Their adept balancing of external purchases and the development of their own resource base will largely determine global demand for oil and gas in the coming years.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and New Challenges
The global transition to clean energy in 2025 is reaching a new phase, setting historical records. In the European Union, as of the end of 2024, total electricity generation from solar and wind sources for the first time surpassed that generated by coal and gas-fired power plants. This trend is continuing into 2025: the commissioning of new RE capacities is proceeding at an accelerated pace. According to the European Commission's forecasts, around 90 GW of solar and wind power plants will be installed in the EU this year—a record growth showcasing the commitment of European countries to the energy transition. In the U.S., the share of renewable sources in electricity generation has also reached a historical maximum: more than 30% of total generation now comes from RE. For the first time, electricity production from solar and wind energy in America has surpassed output from coal-fired power plants. China has solidified its status as the global leader in installed RE capacity, annually commissioning tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines while regularly breaking its own records for green generation.
Investments in alternative energy are steadily increasing from both private businesses and the government. According to IEA estimates, total capital investments in the global energy sector in 2025 will exceed $3 trillion for the first time, with over half of these funds directed towards RE projects, network infrastructure development, and energy storage systems. However, the rapid growth of renewable energy also brings new challenges. Energy systems must adapt to the increasing share of variable sources: when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing, backup capacities or stored resources need to come online. Many countries are actively developing industrial batteries, pumped storage stations, and smart grids to enhance the flexibility and reliability of power supply. Thus, the energy transition is confidently moving forward, setting records but simultaneously requiring massive investments in infrastructure and maintaining reserves of capacity for grid balancing.
Traditional Energy: Coal and Nuclear Retain Key Positions
Despite the commitment of many countries to decarbonization, traditional energy sources continue to hold significant positions in the global energy landscape. The global coal market remains relatively stable due to ongoing high demand, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. China—the largest producer and consumer of coal—maintains annual production levels exceeding 4 billion tons, meeting most of its vast needs. However, during peak periods, such as summer heat and record energy consumption, domestic volumes are barely sufficient; Beijing continues to import coal to avoid electricity shortages. India is also increasing coal usage: about 70% of the country's electricity generation comes from coal-fired power plants, and absolute consumption of this fuel is rising alongside the economy. A number of other developing Asian countries (including Indonesia, Vietnam, and Pakistan) are constructing new coal power blocks, striving to meet the rapid growth in electricity demand.
Major global coal exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—have increased production and shipments in recent years, due to which prices have fallen from extreme levels in 2022 to moderate values and remain relatively stable. Although many developed countries officially declare complete abandonment of coal in the foreseeable future, in practice, some are forced to postpone the shutdown of coal-fired power plants for energy security reasons. A telling example is Italy, which has recently postponed its timeline for a complete transition away from coal generation, acknowledging the necessity of this fuel to reliably handle peak loads in the coming years. Alongside coal, increasing attention is being paid to nuclear energy as a clean and stable source of baseload generation. Russia, through the state corporation "Rosatom," is implementing projects for the construction of new nuclear power plants abroad—from the Middle East to Southeast Asia—while prolonging the resource of existing power blocks within the country and planning sites for new reactors. Nuclear generation, along with coal, ensures the stable operation of energy systems, complementing the variable nature of RE. For investors, this suggests that traditional sectors—coal, oil, gas, and nuclear—will remain in demand in the foreseeable future. Demand for fossil fuels will remain significant, and prices are expected to remain within a relatively balanced range without sharp fluctuations unless unforeseen shocks occur.
Russian Oil Products Market: Government Measures Stabilized Fuel Prices
By early autumn, positive results from emergency government measures aimed at normalizing prices were beginning to be felt in the Russian motor fuel market. This summer, wholesale exchange prices for gasoline and diesel in Russia reached historic highs: in August, the price of gasoline A-95 on the St. Petersburg commodity exchange exceeded 82,000 rubles per ton, breaking records from 2023. The reasons for such a sharp increase were a combination of several factors: a seasonal surge in demand, scheduled repairs at several major refineries, and highly advantageous export opportunities, which led oil companies to redirect part of their fuel to foreign markets. The rapid spike in prices in mid-summer prompted authorities to intervene swiftly to prevent a fuel crisis at gas stations.
Starting in August, the government imposed strict export restrictions on petroleum products, redirecting additional volumes to the domestic market. A complete ban on the export of automotive gasoline and diesel fuel was introduced on August 1—initially for three weeks, and then extended. For vertically integrated oil companies, this embargo is now effective until September 30, 2025, and for independent traders and smaller refineries until the end of October. In addition to the export embargo, a comprehensive set of stabilization measures has been implemented. State control over fuel distribution has been intensified: refineries are mandated to prioritize supplying fuel to Russian gas stations and to minimize sales via exchanges (from where resources could go to export). Authorities encourage direct contracts between refineries and gas station networks, bypassing intermediaries to reduce speculative resales. The damping mechanism—an inverse excise tax system that mitigates the difference between export and domestic prices—remains operational: the government compensates oil companies for part of the lost profit from selling fuel domestically. In September, it was decided to retroactively adjust the parameters of the damping mechanism from August 1st—the base price thresholds from which compensations are calculated have been raised by about 5%. This will result in increased payments to refiners from the budget and further reduce incentives to export gasoline and diesel.
Thanks to this package of measures, by early September, the situation in the fuel market had noticeably stabilized. Wholesale prices have stopped rising and even showed a decrease in some weeks. Retail prices for gasoline and diesel at gas stations are kept under control: since the beginning of the year, the average fuel price nationwide has increased by less than 5%, comparable to the general inflation level and significantly lower than the price increases observed during the summer. The government states its readiness to extend export restrictions if necessary and to deploy additional resources (including fuel sales from state reserves) to prevent fuel shortages in regions. As a result, the Russian petroleum products market has approached equilibrium in the autumn: fuel availability is sufficient, and costs for consumers have stabilized at an acceptable level.
Now, the industry is discussing new approaches to long-term price regulation. For instance, the Russian Fuel Union proposed abandoning strict adherence of gas station price increases to inflation and instead using a broader index that also considers tax burdens, tariffs, and other costs. Experts have received this initiative with mixed feelings: on one hand, expanding indicators for market monitoring may provide regulators with additional data, on the other hand, such measures do not eliminate fundamental imbalances. Analysts point out the necessity of increasing refining profitability and fuel retail margins to lessen cost pressure on consumer prices. In particular, recommendations have been voiced to reduce excise taxes on gasoline and diesel, which would enhance margin profitability for domestic sales.
Thus, the set of emergency measures implemented by the government has yielded initial results, allowing for the stabilization of the fuel market situation. Authorities intend to continue adhering to a proactive approach—preventing sharp price spikes and ensuring a balance between producers' and consumers' interests. The autumn period finds the Russian fuel and energy complex in a more stable state: oil prices are maintained within a comfortable range, the gas sector is prepared for winter, renewable energy is setting records, and the domestic fuel market is under strict control. These trends create a favorable environment for investors and industry companies, although persistent geopolitical risks require ongoing monitoring of the situation and flexible responses to changes in the market conditions.
