Current Events in the Fuel and Energy Complex as of September 11, 2025: A Fragile Balance in the Oil Market, Increased Sanction Pressure and Middle Eastern Tensions, Record Gas Reserves in Europe, Accelerated Energy Transition, and Stabilization of the Fuel Market in Russia.
The latest developments in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of September 11, 2025, reflect a mixed picture. The global oil market maintains relatively stable prices, with Brent quotations hovering around the mid-$60 per barrel mark, supported by an oversupply and slowing demand. At the same time, new geopolitical risks, including the escalating conflict in the Middle East, prevent oil prices from decreasing and occasionally trigger short-term price spikes. The European gas market confidently enters the autumn-winter season with record fuel reserves in storage, which keeps gas prices at a moderate level. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum, with several countries setting new records in renewable energy generation, though traditional resources remain necessary for the reliability of energy systems.
Faced with an intensification of Western sanctions, Russia is increasing its energy cooperation with non-Western countries, redirecting oil and gas exports eastward. New deals are being struck with Asian partners, and infrastructure projects are being implemented to compensate for declining supplies to the West. In the domestic fuel market, after a summer price surge, a set of stabilization measures has been activated: the ban on the export of gasoline and diesel has been extended, control over fuel supply to gas stations has been strengthened, and adjustments to the damping mechanism are being prepared. The first effects are already noticeable—a halt in the rise of petroleum product prices, and the market is gradually stabilizing. Below is an overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: A Fragile Balance Between Surplus and Risks
By the beginning of autumn, global oil prices are demonstrating relative stability after a volatile summer. The benchmark Brent is trading in the range of $65–67 per barrel, while American WTI is at $62–64. These levels are approximately 10% lower than a year ago, reflecting a gradual recovery of market balance after the peaks of the 2022–2023 crisis. The dynamics of prices are influenced by several factors:
- Oil Supply. On an online meeting on September 7, OPEC+ agreed to raise production quotas from October by just 137,000 barrels per day, slowing the pace of supply expansion (with an increase of 547,000 barrels in September). Concurrently, non-OPEC production is reaching record levels: in the summer, the U.S. produced over 13.5 million barrels per day, with new volumes coming to market from Brazil, Guyana, and others, intensifying competition and weakening the influence of OPEC+ actions.
- Weak Demand Growth. Global oil consumption is increasing significantly slower than in previous years. According to the IEA, in 2025 global demand is expected to grow by only ~0.7 million barrels per day (compared to +2.5 million in 2023). OPEC forecasts an increase of around +1.2 million barrels per day. The reasons include a slowdown in the global economy following an active recovery phase and the effects of high prices in previous years, which have stimulated energy conservation. Additionally, the weakening of industrial activity in China is limiting the appetite of the second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitical Tension. The protracted conflict surrounding Ukraine and the escalation of the situation in the Middle East continue to maintain nervousness in the oil market. Increased sanction pressure on Russia and persisting military risks force traders to factor in an uncertainty premium in their quotes.
As a result, the combination of oversupply and sluggish demand prevents oil from experiencing a new price rally. Even amid geopolitical threats, a serious shortage does not currently seem imminent—forecasts suggest a relatively narrow price corridor will be maintained in the fall. Traders are closely monitoring the development of conflicts and sanctions, assessing their impact on future oil supplies.
Gas Market: Adequate Supplies, Prices Under Control
The gas market is primarily focused on Europe, where storage facilities are filled to record levels ahead of the winter season. By early September, gas reserves in the EU's underground storage exceeded 90% of total capacity, significantly ahead of schedule and already surpassing the November target level. A massive import of LNG over the summer has led to gas reserves reaching historical highs. This situation keeps wholesale gas prices relatively low: futures at the TTF hub are around €30/MWh (≈$400 per thousand cubic meters), which is significantly lower than the peaks of 2022. This price situation alleviates the burden on European industries and energy sectors at the onset of the heating season.
However, some uncertainties remain. A rise in demand for LNG in Asia is expected this winter, which could divert some supplies away from Europe and slightly increase prices. Nonetheless, the current situation for the EU is favorable: record reserves and diversified supplies allow the region to enter the cold season without the risk of shortages. European regulators emphasize their commitment to maintaining high storage levels and expanding gas import sources for energy security. Concurrently, Russia is seeking new markets for its gas in Asia: agreements have been reached at the Eastern Economic Forum to increase exports to Kazakhstan, and the "Power of Siberia - 2" pipeline project to China has gained momentum. These measures aim to partially compensate for the lost European market.
Geopolitics: Sanctions and Regional Conflicts
Political factors continue to shape the dynamics of energy markets. The U.S. and its allies, responding to the prolonged conflict in Ukraine, are intensifying sanctions against the Russian fuel and energy complex. The European Union has reduced the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to ~$50 per barrel as of September 3 and has tightened restrictions on tankers and insurers involved in exports priced above the new limit. Additionally, the EU has imposed sanctions on several intermediaries that facilitated circumvention of the oil embargo. These measures complicate the logistics and financing of Russian energy supplies, increasing uncertainty for market participants. In response, Russia is strengthening cooperation with partners outside the West—in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa—advancing joint oil and gas projects to partially compensate for the loss of the European market. However, completely neutralizing sanction pressure has not yet been achieved.
An additional factor of instability has emerged in the form of the Middle Eastern conflict. In recent days, Israel has expanded military operations against Hamas beyond the Gaza Strip, targeting the group's leaders in Doha, Qatar, and facilities linked to Hamas in Yemen. These unprecedented attacks have sharply heightened tensions in the region and sparked a wave of protests from Arab nations supporting Qatar—a major LNG exporter and key mediator in negotiations. News of bombings in Doha has triggered a approximately 1% rise in oil prices as investors fear the expansion of war. Qatar is one of the largest suppliers of liquefied gas, and any threats to its stability immediately impact market expectations. Furthermore, increased attacks by Yemeni Houthis on vessels in the Red Sea add risks to shipping through the Suez Canal—a key route for oil and gas exports from the Gulf. No direct disruptions to energy supply have been reported so far, but the situation remains tense. If the conflict in the Middle East continues to broaden, it could seriously disrupt global fuel supply chains, leading the market to include a heightened risk premium in energy prices.
Asia: Rising Imports and Domestic Production
- India. Under sanction pressure from the West, New Delhi asserts that it cannot renounce critically important Russian energy supplies. Oil and petroleum products from Russia play a key role in meeting India's growing demand. Russian companies are attracting Indian consumers with substantial discounts, ensuring continued purchases even amidst threats of American tariffs. At the same time, India is launching development programs to boost domestic production and gradually reduce reliance on imports.
- China. Beijing, which has not joined the sanctions, remains one of the primary buyers of Russian oil and gas under favorable terms while simultaneously increasing its own production. Nevertheless, China still imports over 70% of its oil and about 40% of its gas, which is why the country is accelerating joint projects with Russia (such as the "Power of Siberia - 2" pipeline) to strengthen its energy security.
Energy Transition and Traditional Energy Sources
The transition to clean energy is gaining momentum in 2025, reaching new record levels. In the European Union, the total generation of electricity from solar and wind power plants surpassed coal and gas plant generation for the first time by the end of 2024, and this trend has continued into 2025. In the U.S., renewable energy's share has also risen to historic levels of 30%. China, the global leader in renewable energy, adds dozens of gigawatts of new solar and wind power capacity annually, continuously breaking its own records for "green" generation.
At the same time, traditional sources continue to play a crucial role. Major coal exporters (Indonesia, Australia, Russia, etc.) have increased production in recent years, allowing global prices to drop from the peaks of 2021–2022 to moderate levels and stabilizing them. Demand for coal remains high, especially in Asia: China mines billions of tons yet still imports coal during peak consumption periods; approximately 70% of India's electricity is generated by coal plants, and overall coal consumption is rising. Many developing countries in Asia are also building new coal power units to meet rapidly growing electricity demand. Although countries declare a gradual phase-out of coal, it remains irreplaceable for reliable energy supply in the near term. Notably, even in Europe, coal plant closures have been postponed for energy security reasons (for example, Italy has delayed its complete exit from coal). Overall, traditional energy sources—coal, oil, gas, as well as nuclear power—continue to serve as foundational pillars of the global energy landscape alongside renewable energy sources. For investors, this means that demand for fossil commodities will remain strong in the coming years, and prices are likely to stay within a balanced range without drastic fluctuations.
The Russian Fuel Market: Stabilization of Fuel Prices
As autumn approaches, the Russian government's emergency measures to normalize prices for gasoline and diesel are beginning to yield results. In August, wholesale fuel prices soared to record levels due to panic buying, scheduled repairs at several refineries, and excessive export profits. This prompted authorities to swiftly enhance regulation. Starting from the beginning of August, a ban on the export of gasoline and diesel was implemented to redirect additional volumes to the domestic market. Subsequently, the ban was extended—for oil companies until September 30 and for independent traders until the end of October. Concurrently, control over supply to the domestic market has been intensified: refiners have been instructed to prioritize supplying fuel to Russian gas stations, minimizing sales on exchanges which could lead to exports. Authorities are also encouraging direct contracts between refineries and gas station networks, bypassing intermediaries. The damping mechanism—subsidy system compensating oil companies for lost profits on domestic fuel sales—continues to operate.
Additionally, the government has decided to retroactively adjust the parameters of the damping mechanism as of August 1, raising the threshold prices for calculating compensation by approximately 5%. This will increase payments to refiners from the budget and further decrease their incentives for exporting fuel. Corresponding amendments have been submitted to the State Duma. By early September, the situation has stabilized: wholesale prices have started to decline, and retail prices at gas stations have stopped rising. Since the beginning of the year, gasoline and diesel have increased in price on average by less than 5%—within the overall inflation rate and significantly slower than the summer surge. The government has stated its readiness, if necessary, to extend export restrictions and implement additional measures to prevent fuel shortages. As a result, the Russian fuel market is nearing equilibrium: fuel prices have stabilized, ensuring affordability for consumers and predictability for the industry.
