Current News from the Fuel and Energy Complex as of September 15, 2025: Oil and Gas Under Sanctions Pressure, Rising Role of China and India, Renewable Energy Records, and Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices in Russia. Comprehensive Overview of the Energy Market for Investors and Companies.
The latest events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of September 15, 2025, attract the attention of investors and market participants due to their ambiguity. Following the summer summit between Russia and the United States, there have been no significant developments in relations—on the contrary, a number of steps from Washington and its allies signal an intensification of sanctions pressure, although channels for dialogue remain open. The global oil market is experiencing increasing pressure due to a supply surplus and weakening demand: Brent prices hover around the average mark of $60–70 per barrel, reflecting a fragile balance of factors. The European gas market demonstrates relative stability: underground gas storage facilities (UGS) in the EU are over 90% full, providing a buffer ahead of winter and keeping prices at a moderate level. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—many countries are reporting new records in electricity production from renewable sources, although for the reliability of energy systems, governments still do not abandon traditional resources. In Russia, following a recent spike in fuel prices, authorities are implementing emergency measures aimed at stabilizing the situation in the domestic oil products market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, energy, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus Increases Pressure on Prices
Global oil prices remain under pressure from fundamental factors, staying at relatively low levels. The North Sea Brent blend is trading around $65–68 per barrel in mid-September, while American WTI is in the range of $60–64. These values are approximately 10–15% lower than a year ago, reflecting a gradual market correction following the price peaks during the energy crisis of 2022–2023. Several key factors influence price dynamics:
- OPEC+ Production Growth: The oil alliance continues to methodically increase supply. In September, participating countries agreed to an additional increase in the total production quota (approximately +137 thousand barrels/day, after +548 thousand b/s the previous month). Despite relatively low prices, OPEC+ demonstrates a readiness to regain lost market shares, leading to an increase in global oil and petroleum product stocks.
- Slowing Demand: The pace of global oil consumption is slowing. The International Energy Agency (IEA) maintains a pessimistic outlook, expecting demand growth of less than 1 million barrels/day in 2025 (compared to approximately 2.5 million in 2023). OPEC estimates demand growth even more modestly, at around +1.3 million b/s. Reasons include a weakening economy (including China's GDP slowdown) and the effect of high prices from previous years, which promote energy conservation.
- Non-OPEC Stocks and Supply: US commercial oil stocks unexpectedly increased at the beginning of September, signaling a market surplus. Simultaneously, producers like Saudi Arabia have ramped up crude oil exports (according to Kpler, a sharp increase in Saudi shipments is expected in September due to the end of the domestic demand season). Additionally, a reduction in petroleum product exports from Russia has freed up additional crude oil volumes for the global market.
- Geopolitics and Finance: Amid weak macroeconomic data in the US, expectations for easing by the Federal Reserve intensified, weakening the dollar and temporarily supporting commodity prices. On the other hand, risks of escalation in the Middle East remain, adding volatility. Collectively, these factors keep oil prices within a relatively narrow range, preventing the market from either rallying or collapsing.
As a result, the current balance leans towards a supply surplus, and the global oil market has effectively entered a surplus phase. Brent is confidently trading below last year's levels, and several analysts note that without changes in trends, prices have limited upside potential.
Gas Market: High Stocks in Europe Ensure Moderate Prices
The focus in the gas market remains on Europe. EU countries are rapidly injecting natural gas into underground storage facilities (UGS) in preparation for the upcoming fall and winter seasons. By mid-September, the overall fill level of European storage has surpassed 90% of total capacity, significantly ahead of the European Commission's target schedule (90% by early November) and creating a solid reserve for winter. This has kept gas exchange prices relatively low: futures at the TTF hub are trading around €30/MWh (about $380 per thousand cubic meters), indicating a balance between supply and demand. Meanwhile, the active inflow of liquefied natural gas (LNG) also plays a role—Europe has significantly increased its LNG imports during the summer months, compensating for reduced pipeline supplies. A potential risk ahead is competition for LNG from Asia in the event of economic growth acceleration there; however, for now, the situation in the European gas market appears stable, with prices comfortable for the industry and energy sectors ahead of winter.
International Policy: Dialogue Without Breakthrough Amid Intensifying Sanctions
The international agenda of the fuel and energy market remains contradictory. On the one hand, Moscow and Washington stated their intention to continue contacts after the August meeting—working communication channels are maintained, and new consultations are considered. However, on the other hand, no real concessions or easing of the sanctions regime has yet occurred. Moreover, a number of actions by Western countries indicate a tightening of restrictions:
- Japan has lowered the “price cap” on Russian oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel starting September 12, intensifying restrictions on the import of Russian raw materials.
- The US is calling on allies to increase pressure: According to media reports, Washington is suggesting that G7 countries impose additional tariffs on the purchase of Russian oil by India and China, attempting to reduce Moscow's benefits from redirecting exports.
- Discussion of New Sanctions: Western capitals are openly discussing the possibility of introducing new measures if there is no progress in resolving the crisis. In the US, for example, earlier ideas of 100% tariffs on all exports to China were proposed if Beijing does not reduce its cooperation with Russia in the energy sector.
Thus, geopolitical uncertainty remains: there is no direct breakthrough in the Russia–US dialogue, and energy companies continue to operate under sanctions pressure. So far, the market is factoring this status quo into pricing: sanctions limit the activity of certain investors, but their intensification is partially offset by a realignment of global energy resource flows (alternative buyers and supply routes).
Asia: India and China Increase Import of Energy Resources
Asian countries, primarily India and China, continue to play a key role in global energy resource trade, balancing between external pressure and their economic interests. **India** clearly conveys that it is not willing to sacrifice its energy security: despite Western pressure, New Delhi maintains a high level of purchases of Russian oil and petroleum products, which are critically important for the Indian domestic market. Simultaneously, India seeks to diversify supply sources and increase its own oil and gas production; however, in the short term, the needs of its growing economy dictate the retention of import flows.
**China**, for its part, is increasing imports of both traditional fuels and liquefied gas while simultaneously investing in strengthening its strategic reserves. Beijing is taking advantage of the discounts on Russian energy resources: Chinese refiners and traders are actively purchasing Russian oil in large volumes, ensuring a redistribution of supplies that have left Western markets. Although domestic production in China is also increasing, it is insufficient to cover total demand, so dependence on imports remains high.
In fact, Asia has become the main market for Russian energy resources amid sanctions. This realignment confirms that India and China prioritize meeting their needs over political considerations—their governments and companies actively take advantage of favorable opportunities to purchase oil, gas, and coal at lower prices. In the long run, this strengthens energy cooperation between Russia and Asian powers and partially compensates for Russia's restricted access to European and North American markets.
Energy Transition: Records in Renewable Energy and the Role of Traditional Resources
The global transition to clean energy continues to accelerate. In 2025, many regions are registering new records in the commissioning and generation of renewable energy (RE) capacities. **The European Union**, for instance, is expected to introduce a record of approximately 89 GW of new RE capacity this year, primarily from solar and wind power plants. Overall, the share of renewable energy in global electricity supply is steadily increasing, reaching around 35%. Leading economies (the EU, China, the US) are ramping up investments in solar and wind generation, aiming to reduce their carbon footprints and dependence on fossil fuels.
At the same time, **traditional energy resources** still play a significant role in ensuring the stability of energy systems. Peak loads, seasonal fluctuations in RE generation, and the need for backup capacities require support from gas, coal, and nuclear energy. In many countries, coal and gas-fired power plants continue to operate as a buffer against interruptions in renewable energy supply. Therefore, the current energy transition is not a one-time abandonment of oil, gas, and coal but rather a phased process: renewable energy is breaking records and reclaiming market share, but the "old" energy sector will continue to backstop the global economy for a long time to come.
Coal: Sustained High Demand and Record Production
Despite the "green" trend, the global coal market in 2025 remains at historically high levels. According to IEA estimates, global coal consumption has stabilized after reaching a record in 2023—the demand in 2024–2025 hovers around 8.8 billion tons per year (only slightly below peak values). The largest consumer and producer of coal remains **China**, accounting for over half of global demand; **India** also plays a significant role, where coal provides the lion's share of electricity. Demand in Europe and North America is gradually declining, but this is not enough to significantly alter the situation globally.
Global coal production is also reaching record levels. In 2025, according to forecasts, coal production may exceed 9.2 billion tons—a new maximum driven by rising output in Asian countries and sustained high demand. Coal prices, after the volatility of previous years, are currently demonstrating relative stability, remaining at favorable levels for mining companies. Thus, the coal sector continues to be an important part of the global energy balance, providing a basic need for inexpensive fuel for generation, especially in developing economies.
Russian Fuel Market: Emergency Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
In the domestic fuel segment of Russia, a crisis-driven price surge unfolded during the summer, prompting authorities to respond with a set of emergency measures. At the end of August, the government imposed a temporary **ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel**, aiming to saturate the domestic market—this restriction applies to oil companies until September 30, and for intermediary traders until October 31, 2025. Concurrently, oil companies are instructed to increase fuel shipments to problematic regions: additional batches of gasoline and diesel are being sent to areas facing shortages (e.g., Primorye, Crimea).
Mechanisms for adjusting exchange prices and subsidies are also under consideration. Specifically, there are discussions around expanding the permissible deviation of fuel exchange prices from the baseline level for calculating subsidies—this would allow refiners to receive subsidy payments even with higher exchange prices, reducing incentives to export fuel abroad. Additionally, authorities have extended state price control: the export ban on certain petroleum products will remain until the situation stabilizes, and regulatory bodies are monitoring the wholesale and retail markets for unjustified premiums.
The adopted measures have already yielded initial results. Following record highs in mid-August (the exchange price for AI-92 gasoline reached approximately 72,700 rubles/ton, while AI-95 exceeded 80,000 rubles/ton), a correction has been observed by the beginning of September on the Saint Petersburg International Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange: gasoline prices have decreased by approximately 7-8% from their peak. Nevertheless, retail fuel prices continue to rise—since the beginning of the year, consumer prices for gasoline have increased by more than 6%, significantly outpacing inflation (around 4% for the same period). The government hopes that as planned repairs at refineries are completed and seasonal demand decreases (at the end of the summer driving season), the situation will stabilize, and the resumption of export shipments will only be possible once the domestic market is guaranteed to be saturated.
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