Current Oil, Gas, and Energy News as of February 13, 2026: Price Dynamics for Brent and WTI Oil, TTF and Henry Hub Gas Markets, Sanction Risks, Refineries and Oil Products, Electricity, Coal, and Renewable Energy. A Global Overview of the Energy Market for Investors and Companies.
As we enter Friday, February 13, 2026, the global energy sector is facing a conflicting set of signals: oil demand forecasts are becoming more cautious, yet geopolitical factors, sanctions, and logistical disruptions are increasing volatility in oil, gas, and oil products. In Europe, electricity and carbon regulation are back in focus, while coal in Asia is facing spot risks due to export uncertainties. Below are the key indicators and events important for investors, oil and gas companies, refiners, and trading in global markets.
- Oil: Prices are hovering around psychological levels, but the "supply-demand" balance appears less tight on paper than in physical trading.
- Gas: Europe is entering the injection season with increased regulatory premiums and sensitivity to LNG and weather; the U.S. remains on a separate curve with its own storage cycle.
- Electricity and Renewable Energy: ETS policy and energy costs for industry are becoming market factors alongside raw materials.
- Refineries and Oil Products: Margins are supported by structural capacity shortages and local disruptions, but infrastructure risks are increasing.
Market Numbers: Key Prices for Oil, Gas, Electricity, and Coal
| Indicator | Price | Change for the Day | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Oil | $69.21/barrel | -0.27% | Global oil benchmark; risk premium depends on sanctions and logistics |
| WTI Oil | $64.55/barrel | -0.12% | U.S.; sensitive to inventories and refinery utilization |
| Henry Hub Gas (NYMEX, NGH26) | $3.246/MMBtu | +2.75% | U.S.; impacts electricity and demand from generation |
| Dutch TTF Gas (CME, TTFH6) | €32.885/MWh | +2.23% | Europe; influenced by LNG, weather, regulation, and inventories |
| Coal (Newcastle Benchmark) | $115.00/ton | ≈+0.09% | Indicative level for the seaborne coal market; crucial for electricity and Asia |
Oil: Demand Revision Against "Hard" Geopolitics
Market Balance and Demand Expectations
The current focus is on the dissonance between macro forecasts and trading realities. Revised demand forecasts and expectations of surplus supply create a baseline scenario for "range-bound" oil in the coming weeks. However, within the physical supply chain, the risk premium persists due to sanctions, restrictions on "gray" flows, and infrastructural threats along routes and processing locations. For investors, this means even moderate oil prices may be accompanied by high intraday volatility and widening spreads across grades.
Sanctions, Hormuz, and Risk Premium
The sanction factor is becoming a key driver of "availability" of barrels, rather than just their price. New restrictions on carriers and trading chains are increasing the importance of insurance, compliance, and access to port infrastructure. In the upcoming sessions, the market will be particularly sensitive to signals regarding de-escalation or, conversely, to news about the expansion of restrictions and incidents in narrow points of global logistics.
Gas and LNG: European Risk Profile and American Curve
For the global energy landscape, gas remains both a "transitional" and strategic commodity: it defines the margin for electricity and the competitiveness of industry in Europe, while in the U.S., it serves as a bridge between production and LNG export. The European TTF strengthens amid sensitivity to weather and LNG supply status, as well as regulatory limitations on Russian volumes and their marketing.
- Europe: The market enters the pre-injection season, where gas prices easily react to any signals regarding LNG availability and potential contract restrictions.
- U.S.: The Henry Hub remains a hostage to seasonal storage dynamics and short-term weather shocks; the impact is amplified by rising demand from generation and export infrastructure.
Electricity and Carbon: ETS as a Market Factor
In 2026, electricity increasingly responds not only to fuel balance (gas/coal) but also to political and regulatory signals. The discussion on ETS adjustments and the industry struggle to reduce costs is reintroducing "politics" into the equation of forward curves. In practice, this means that investors in generation and networks will evaluate not only CAPEX and fuel prices but also the degree of regulatory predictability.
Global Linkage "Gas → Electricity → Industry"
For global geo-targeting, two effects are crucial. First is the relative cost of electricity between regions (Europe vs. U.S./Asia), impacting capital migration into energy-intensive sectors. The second is the resilience of networks and availability of capacity: extreme weather and military risks heighten price spikes and increase the value of flexibility (balancing power, storage, rapid repairs).
Oil Products and Refineries: Margins Growing, but "Physics" Becoming Fragile
The oil products segment is receiving support from structurally limited refining capacity: the global refinery base is growing slower than the need for reliable fuel supply. In this context, any shutdown of a major refinery—whether due to accidents, repairs, or force majeure—quickly reflects on diesel and gasoline spreads and regional price premiums.
- U.S.: Margin recovery among independent refiners is raising interest in sector stocks and "crack spread" strategies.
- Eurasia: Risks of attacks on infrastructure and refinery shutdowns are again becoming a price factor for oil products and logistics.
- Europe: Changes in ownership and management regimes of refineries are increasing the role of sanction compliance and corporate governance.
Renewable Energy and Energy Transition: Goal Adjustment and Hidden Grid Costs
Renewable energy remains a strategic direction, but the pace and structure of the transition are increasingly dependent on grid constraints and policies. Adjustments to national plans in Europe demonstrate that "planned" capacity installation trajectories are not guaranteed: the market is increasingly factoring in project delays, increased connection costs, and subsidy revisions.
- For investors in renewable energy, a key risk is not only the cost of capital but also the speed of grid connectivity and rules for cost allocation.
- For industry, predictability of electricity costs and availability of long-term PPAs/contracts are crucial.
Coal: Asian Spot Risks and the Role of Fuel in Energy Balance
Despite the increasing share of renewable energy, coal remains "insurance" fuel for electricity in many economies, especially in Asia. Any export restrictions and disruptions in spot supplies quickly transform into price impetus—and through this, they influence gas, demand for oil products in generation (fuel oil/distillates), and overall energy inflation.
Key Takeaway for the Energy Sector
The coal market in 2026 is important not only as a "long-term play" but also as a source of short-term deficits and shocks that transfer to gas and electricity through fuel substitution.
Logistics, Sanctions, and Insurance: Where Supply Chains May "Break"
Oil and gas trading in 2026 is increasingly dependent on the throughput of bottlenecks and the status of vessels. Under pressure from sanctions, the role of the "shadow fleet" is growing, routes are becoming more complicated, and transaction costs are rising—from insurance to port procedures. In the short term, the market will react to any changes in transit status in Hormuz and the expansion of sanction lists, including measures against third country infrastructure and ports.
What Investors Should Monitor on Friday, February 13, 2026: Scenarios and Ideas for Charts
For the audience of investors and corporate planning in oil and gas and energy, it is critical to consider not only "absolute prices" but also the market regime: range/trend, liquidity, compliance risk, and likelihood of force majeure events.
Session Checklist
- Oil: Holding Brent near $70 and the dynamics of grade spreads (signal of "clean" barrel availability).
- Gas: TTF stability above/below €30-35/MWh as an indicator of European stress mode; reaction to LNG news.
- Electricity: Any statements regarding ETS and mechanisms to support industry; impact on utility stocks and power forward curves.
- Refineries and Oil Products: News about refinery repairs/shutdowns and margin dynamics; fuel logistics risks.
- Coal: Signals regarding normalization/increased export restrictions in Asia as a driver for the spot market.
Where Charts/Diagrams are Relevant (Do not insert images)
- Line chart: Brent and WTI prices over the last 30 days + marking of key news (sanctions/incidents/reports).
- Spread diagram: TTF vs. Henry Hub (converted) as an indicator of regional gas imbalances.
- Bar chart: indicative levels for coal/gas/ETS and their contribution to electricity costs by regions.
- Map schema: logistics bottlenecks (Hormuz, key ports/hubs) with qualitative assessment of sanction risks.
As of February 13, 2026, the baseline scenario for commodity markets appears "moderately surplus" based on models, but "premium" in terms of risk regarding actual supplies. For energy sector participants, the optimal strategy remains a combination of hedging in oil and gas, compliance discipline, and heightened attention to infrastructure risks in refineries and logistics for oil products.
