Current News in the Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC) as of September 10, 2025: Oil Market Balance, Record Gas Reserves in Europe, Energy Cooperation Between Russia and Asia, Renewable Energy Development, and Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices in Russia.
As of September 10, 2025, the latest events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) illustrate a relative stability in global markets and active measures within the industry. The world oil market maintains prices at an average of $60 per barrel, with an oversupply and slower demand hindering price increases, while geopolitical risks prevent prices from sharply declining. The European gas market heads confidently into winter, boasting record reserves in storage, which helps keep gas prices moderate. Simultaneously, Russia is strengthening its energy cooperation with Asian partners: new agreements for oil and gas exports are being concluded, and infrastructure projects are being expanded to compensate for the reduction in supplies to the West. The global energy transition is gaining momentum, with many countries recording unprecedented growth in renewable energy, while traditional resources continue to play a significant role in maintaining the stability of energy systems. In the domestic fuel market of Russia, a comprehensive set of measures is being implemented to stabilize gasoline and diesel prices after a summer spike: the export ban has been extended, fuel distribution control has been intensified, and adjustments to the damping mechanism are planned. Below is a detailed overview of key trends and news in the oil, gas, energy, and commodity sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Fragile Price Equilibrium Amid Oversupply
As of early fall, global oil prices exhibit relative stability following a volatile summer. The Brent North Sea crude has settled in the range of approximately $65–67 per barrel, while the American WTI trades around $62–64. Current quotes are about 10% lower than levels from a year ago, reflecting a gradual normalization of the market following the peaks of the 2022–2023 energy crisis. The balance in the market remains fragile due to the combined influence of several factors:
- Moderate Production Growth from OPEC+. During the recent online meeting on September 7, OPEC+ alliance countries agreed to only a minor increase in oil production quotas starting in October — around 137,000 barrels per day. This increase is significantly lower than in previous months (for comparison, total production rises by 547,000 b/d in September), signaling the alliance's desire to avoid market oversaturation. Should signs of a surplus increase, a pause in further liberalization of production could be expected in upcoming meetings.
- Record Volumes from Non-OPEC Producers. Additional pressure on prices is being exerted by producers not part of the OPEC+ agreement. Primarily, oil production in the U.S. has reached an all-time high—this summer it exceeded 13.5 million barrels per day, marking the largest individual contribution to global supply. Supplies from other countries, such as Brazil, Guyana, and several others, continue to increase, with new "barrels" actively entering the market. The rise in competition among exporters reduces the influence of OPEC+ decisions on price dynamics.
- Weak Demand Growth. Global oil consumption is increasing much more slowly than in previous years. According to the updated forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand is expected to rise by only about 0.7 million barrels per day in 2025 (compared to over 2.5 million b/d in 2023). Similar estimates are provided by OPEC, predicting a rise of approximately 1.2 million b/d for 2025. Contributing factors include a general slowdown in the world economy following a phase of rapid recovery and the effects of past high oil prices, which have stimulated energy conservation and efficiency improvements. Additional factors include weakened industrial activity in China—the world's second-largest oil consumer—limiting demand growth.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty. The ongoing military conflict and sanctions confrontation creates additional nervousness in the oil market. The lack of progress in peace initiatives means that tough sanctions against Russia will remain in place, with the possibility of new restrictions being introduced. Washington has already imposed 100% tariffs on oil imports from India as punishment for its continued purchases of Russian crude (similar measures threaten China if it sharply increases imports from Russia). The European Union has also expanded sanctions, targeting transport companies and traders helping to circumvent the oil embargo. Moreover, in recent weeks, drone attacks on oil infrastructure facilities in the conflict zone have increased: strike drones have rendered large oil refineries and sections of export pipelines inoperable. While global oil supplies currently offset local losses, the escalation of military risks could shake the market at any time. As a result, geopolitical factors both limit price decrease potential (creating a sort of "risk premium") and provide no basis for a new price rally.
The overall situation in the oil market is approaching a surplus—supply exceeds demand, which keeps prices from rising. Exchange quotes confidently remain below last year's peaks. Several analysts believe that if current trends persist, the average Brent price may drop to $55–60 per barrel by 2026. However, due to OPEC+'s cautious policy and the presence of geopolitical "insurance," a sharp price drop is not anticipated—rather, a relatively narrow price corridor is likely to be maintained in the coming months.
Gas Market: Record Reserves in Europe and Route Diversification
The gas market's primary focus is on Europe, which is preparing confidently for the winter season. EU countries have proactively accumulated record volumes of fuel in underground storage (UGS). By the beginning of September, gas reserves in European UGS facilities exceeded 90% of total capacity, significantly ahead of the filling schedule and already surpassing the target level initially set for November. Active imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) over the summer allowed for a rapid buildup of reserves to historic highs. As a result, exchange prices for gas are maintained at a relatively low level: futures on the Dutch TTF hub are trading around €30/MWh (approximately $400 per thousand cubic meters)—many times lower than the peak values observed during the 2022 crisis. This pricing situation significantly reduces pressure on European industries and energy sectors on the eve of the heating season.
However, potential risks remain on the horizon. Demand for LNG in Asia is expected to rise during winter, which could divert some supplies away from Europe and push gas prices upward. Nonetheless, the current situation is favorable for the EU: record reserves and stable supplies provide a reasonable degree of security entering the winter without fears of shortages. European regulators have expressed their intent to continue the policy of maintaining high UGS filling levels and diversifying gas sources to strengthen energy security.
At the same time, Russia is intensifying the reorientation of its gas exports toward the East. During the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok, new agreements were reached with Asian partners. In particular, Gazprom has agreed to increase natural gas supplies to Kazakhstan in 2025–2026, accommodating the growing needs of the neighboring country. Additionally, Russian and Chinese parties confirmed their intention to expedite the implementation of the new "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline to China: the project has entered the practical implementation stage and is projected to supply up to 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually to western regions of China. Furthermore, the capacities of the existing "Power of Siberia 1" pipeline will be increased from 38 to 44 billion cubic meters per year, with exports through the Far Eastern route via Primorye increasing from 10 to 12 billion cubic meters annually. These steps are aimed at compensating for the reduction in the European market, ensuring long-term sales channels for Russian gas in Asia.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Increasing Pressure on the Energy Sector
Political factors continue to have a significant impact on the global energy market. The United States and its allies are intensifying sanctions pressure on Russia's FEC amid the protracted conflict surrounding Ukraine. As previously noted, the U.S. has transitioned from threats to actions by imposing punitive tariffs against India for purchasing Russian oil in large volumes. Washington has indicated its readiness to apply secondary sanctions against other partners of Moscow—similar measures may impact China if it substantially increases energy imports from Russia in violation of Western restrictions. The European Union, for its part, strained price limits as of September 3: the price cap on Russian oil has been lowered from $60 to approximately $50 per barrel, and sanctions against carriers and insurers servicing the export of Russian oil above the new ceiling have been expanded. Additionally, the EU has introduced new restrictions against several transport companies and traders suspected of aiding in circumventing the oil embargo.
The tightening of sanctions increases uncertainty for companies and investors in the energy sector, forcing them to take political risks into account in their planning. Meanwhile, Russia is actively seeking opportunities to mitigate the effects of sanctions pressure through cooperation with non-Western countries. New joint projects—both in oil and gas supplies and in technology and investment—are being discussed at international forums with partners in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. This reorientation partially compensates for the loss of traditional markets, although fully neutralizing the impact of sanctions remains unachievable for now.
In addition to economic measures, geopolitical tensions are manifesting in direct threats to energy infrastructure. Drone attacks and sabotage incidents continue to affect oil and gas facilities. In recent weeks, several large oil refineries and export pipeline terminals in Russia were targeted by drone strikes. Although the damage from these incidents is localized and was promptly compensated by backup capacities, the trend itself raises concerns. Further escalation of conflicts and increased attacks on infrastructure could lead to more serious disruptions in fuel supplies. Thus, geopolitics remains a key factor of uncertainty in energy markets, influencing company strategies and overall price volatility.
Asia: Rising Energy Resource Imports and Increasing Domestic Production
- India. Facing sanctions pressure from the West, New Delhi openly states that it cannot abruptly abandon critically important imports of Russian energy resources. Deliveries of oil and petroleum products from Russia play a key role in the country's energy security, enabling the fulfillment of growing demand. To maintain the Indian market, Russian companies offer attractive conditions—for instance, Urals crude is sold to Indian buyers at a significant discount to Brent prices. Consequently, India continues to actively increase its purchases of inexpensive Russian fuel. Simultaneously, Indian leadership is taking steps to enhance energy security for the future. On August 15, Prime Minister Narendra Modi officially launched a national program to explore deep-water oil and gas fields. The state-owned company ONGC has already commenced drilling in the Andaman Sea within this initiative, aiming to unveil new hydrocarbon reserves. Such projects are intended to enhance India's domestic production and reduce reliance on imports in the medium term.
- China. The largest economy in Asia is simultaneously increasing energy imports and expanding internal production. Beijing has not joined Western sanctions and remains one of the primary buyers of Russian oil and gas on preferential terms. At the same time, domestic oil and gas production in China continues to rise: since the beginning of 2025, Chinese companies have produced approximately 127 million tons of oil (up 1% from last year) and 152.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas (up 6%). However, even with these record production levels, domestic resources are inadequate—China’s rapidly growing economy still imports more than 70% of its consumed oil and around 40% of its gas. Aiming to strengthen long-term energy security, Beijing is expanding its cooperation with Moscow. Recently, the parties have reached the final stages of agreements for the construction of the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline, which will connect gas fields in Western Siberia with the western regions of China. The realization of this project in the coming years could increase Russian gas exports to China by 50 billion cubic meters annually, raising total deliveries across all routes to 100 billion cubic meters per year. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers—India and China—are poised to maintain central roles in global commodity markets, combining rising imports of advantageous energy resources with investments to develop their own resource base.
Energy Transition: Records in Renewable Energy and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy in 2025 continues to accelerate, reaching new record levels. In the European Union, total electricity generation from solar and wind power plants surpassed generation from coal and gas-fired plants for the first time at the end of 2024—a trend that has continued into 2025, demonstrating the success of the EU's decarbonization policy. In the United States, the share of renewable sources in electricity production has exceeded the historic level of 30%, indicating a rapid increase in "green" capacity. China, as the world leader in installed renewable energy capacity, adds tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines each year, continually setting new records in clean energy production.
According to IEA estimates, total investments in the global energy sector in 2025 will exceed $3 trillion, with more than half of this funding directed toward renewable energy projects, electrical network modernization, and energy storage systems. This unprecedented influx of capital into the "green" segment reflects the ambitions of states and businesses to accelerate the energy transition. However, such rapid growth in the share of solar and wind in the energy balance brings new technical challenges. During periods when solar or wind generation is temporarily unavailable (night hours, windless periods), energy systems still require backup capacities from traditional power plants to meet peak demands. Many countries are investing significant resources into creating large-scale energy storage systems—industrial battery complexes, pumped-storage power plants—as well as developing "smart" grids to enhance flexibility and resilience in energy supply.
Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable energy may become the leading source of global electricity generation, finally surpassing coal as the primary source. Nevertheless, for the next few years, there remains a necessity to support traditional power plants as a safety reserve. Thus, the global energy transition reaches new heights, but balanced solutions are required to harmonize "green" technologies with traditional resources to ensure the reliability of energy systems at all times.
Coal Sector: Stable Prices Amid High Demand
Despite international efforts toward decarbonization, the coal industry continues to hold a significant place in global energy in 2025. Demand for coal products remains robust, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and the needs of the electricity sector support intense consumption of this fuel. China, the largest producer and consumer of coal, extracts over 4 billion tons annually, with virtually all this volume being burned in domestic power plants. During peak summer loads, even these colossal amounts are insufficient, prompting China to import additional coal shipments to meet the rising demand. In India, around 70% of electricity is still generated from coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption is rising in line with economic growth. Many other developing Asian countries are also constructing new coal power plants in order to meet the rapidly growing electricity needs.
The largest global coal exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and others—have significantly increased production over the past few years. This rise in supply has helped to lower global prices from record peaks reached in 2021–2022 to moderate levels. Currently, coal quotations remain relatively stable, providing an accessible raw material for energy producers while allowing mining companies to earn consistent profits. Many states declare plans to gradually phase out coal generation; however, in the foreseeable future, this resource remains indispensable for ensuring reliable electricity supply for millions of people, especially in Asian countries. Traditional energy carriers—coal, oil, gas, and nuclear energy—continue to serve as foundational pillars of the global energy sector, even amid aggressive renewable energy development. For investors, this means that in the coming years, the demand for hydrocarbon raw materials and coal will persist, and prices are likely to remain within a balanced range without sharp fluctuations.
Russian Fuel Market: Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
In the domestic fuel market of Russia, by autumn, the first results of emergency measures taken by authorities to normalize gasoline and diesel prices are becoming evident. In August, wholesale exchange prices for automotive fuel reached historical highs amid frantic demand, planned repairs at several refineries, and highly profitable exports. The sharp price increase prompted the government to act swiftly to tighten regulations: starting in early August, a complete ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel was implemented to redirect additional volumes to the domestic market. Initially, the embargo was meant to be in place for several weeks; however, it has since been extended until September 30, considering the persistent supply tension within the country.
In addition to export restrictions, a set of other stabilizing measures has been implemented. Government control over fuel distribution has been intensified: refineries are required to prioritize domestic market needs, minimizing sales through the exchange that could lead to exports. Authorities encourage the practice of establishing direct long-term contracts between refineries and gas station networks, bypassing speculative reseller chains. The damping mechanism continues to operate—a reverse excise tax system that compensates oil companies for part of the lost profit when selling fuel domestically. Through the damping system, producers receive payments from the budget, incentivizing them to direct sufficient volumes of gasoline and diesel to the domestic market, even when export prices are more attractive.
On September 10, additional decisions on adjustments to the damping mechanism are anticipated. The government plans to raise the threshold prices upon which the damping calculations are based, and it is intended that these changes will be retroactively applied as of August 1. This move will enable refiners to receive increased compensation from the budget, further reducing their incentives to export fuel and retaining a larger volume of resources for domestic consumption. Experts note that the adjustment of the damping mechanism will help cool the wholesale market and prevent a recurrence of price spikes.
Thanks to the package of measures enacted, by the end of August, the situation began to stabilize. The increase in wholesale prices has ceased, and retail prices at gas stations are kept under control. Since the beginning of the year, gasoline and diesel have increased in price by less than 5% on average, which corresponds to the level of overall inflation and is significantly lower than the rates observed during the summer. The government has stated its readiness to extend export limitations and deploy additional resources if necessary to prevent fuel shortages in the domestic market. As a result of these efforts, sharp price increases are not forecasted for the autumn—the Russian fuel market is gradually moving toward equilibrium, ensuring acceptable fuel costs for consumers and stable operations within the industry.
