Current News in the Fuel and Energy Sector as of October 28, 2025: Sanction Risks, Brent Above $65, Record Gas Reserves, Historic Investments in Renewables, and Stabilization of the Russian Fuel Market. A Review of Key Events and Trends in Global Energy for Investors and Market Participants.
As of October 28, 2025, the global fuel and energy sector continues to experience intense geopolitical rivalry, while also showing relative stability in commodity markets and even some positive signals. The sanction confrontation between Russia and the West remains strong: the United States has imposed direct sanctions against major Russian oil and gas companies (including Rosneft and LUKOIL), urging allies to completely abandon trade in Russian energy resources and to close any loopholes for exports. The European Union is tightening restrictions, closing remaining loopholes (such as banning the re-export of oil products from Russian raw materials through third countries). Under pressure from the West, India and China have signaled their willingness to reduce purchases of Russian oil—though neither New Delhi nor Beijing officially confirms these plans, such signals alone heighten market uncertainty.
Simultaneously, global commodity markets are displaying relatively calm dynamics. After previously hitting multi-month lows, oil prices rebounded sharply last week (Brent added about 8%, marking the strongest weekly increase since June)—driven by concerns over supply disruptions amidst new sanctions against Russia. At the start of the current week, this growth was met with some correction: investors partially locked in profits, and Brent is holding around $65 per barrel (WTI is approximately $61), which is still above levels from a month ago. Additional support for the markets was necessitated by optimism in the global economy: a meeting is expected between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, where both sides aim to conclude a trade agreement and avoid mutual tariff increases. The prospects of easing trade disputes between the U.S. and China have improved expectations for commodity demand. Thus, despite geopolitical tensions, commodity prices are remaining relatively stable. The European gas market is entering winter with record fuel reserves—EU gas storage is over 95% full, which has allowed prices to decrease to comfortable levels (TTF index around €30 per MWh) provided that the weather remains mild. The global energy transition is continuing at an accelerated pace: investments in renewable energy are hitting historic highs, and the share of clean sources in global generation is steadily increasing (in 2025, wind and solar generation jointly produced more electricity than coal stations for the first time). However, oil, gas, and coal continue to play a critically important role in meeting demand.
In Russia, the domestic situation in the fuels market has significantly stabilized after emergency measures from the government. By mid-October, the acute shortage of gasoline and diesel fuel that was observed at the end of summer was largely alleviated: wholesale prices have retreated from peak levels, independent gas stations have resumed normal fuel sales, and supplies in most regions have returned to normal. However, authorities continue to closely monitor the situation as winter approaches—maintaining restrictions on the export of oil products and support measures for refineries to ensure a stable supply for the domestic market. At the same time, long-term solutions are being discussed in industry forums: at the "Russian Energy Week 2025" (Moscow, October 15-17), a central theme was ensuring the domestic market is supplied with energy resources and redirecting exports in the context of sanctions. Below is a review of key events and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, renewable, coal sectors, and the fuel market in Russia as of the current date.
Oil Market: Price Volatility, Supply Surplus, and Sanction Risks
Global oil prices remain under pressure due to an oversupply and slowing demand. Brent prices are holding around multi-month lows (~$60-65 per barrel), significantly lower than levels a month ago. The market anticipates that by the end of the year, oil supply will exceed demand: OPEC+ countries are ramping up production, and major producers outside the cartel (the U.S., Brazil, etc.) are producing record volumes. Meanwhile, consumption growth has slowed amid a weak European and Chinese economy, as well as due to past price peaks—global oil inventories are increasing, putting downward pressure on prices.
- Production is increasing, demand is slowing. As of November, OPEC+ plans to gradually raise total production quotas (by ~137,000 bpd), while the U.S. and Brazil have already approached record production levels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecast for global oil consumption growth in 2025 to ~0.7 million bpd (down from >2 million in 2023). The oversupply and rising oil stocks continue to exert pressure on prices.
- New sanctions and geopolitics. Increasing sanctions against the Russian oil sector maintain uncertainty in the market. U.S. sanctions against key Russian oil companies are in effect, including efforts against a "shadow fleet" of tankers, and there is discussion on a complete embargo on Russian oil. Meanwhile, military risks remain: drone attacks on oil infrastructure in Russia continue, periodically disabling certain refineries. Additionally, India—one of the largest buyers of Russian oil—under pressure from the West may gradually reduce its imports. Losing the Indian market would increase pressure on Russia's exports, but global flows are likely to be redirected towards other markets.
The oil market is balancing between fundamental and political factors. The oversupply keeps prices low, but sanction risks and potential market shifts (such as the possible withdrawal of Indian buyers) prevent prices from plunging much lower than current levels. In the coming months, relatively low oil prices are expected to persist around $60 per barrel unless new shocks occur.
Natural Gas: Record Reserves in Europe and Eastern Export Shift
The gas market is approaching winter in a favorable state. European gas storage is filled to record levels (over 95%, 5-7% higher than last year), stabilizing prices in the EU at around €30-35 per MWh. The risk of a repeat of last year's gas crisis has significantly decreased—though much will depend on the upcoming winter weather and the reliability of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies.
- Europe is ready for winter. Record gas reserves create a robust buffer against cold weather, while demand in the EU remains restrained due to a sluggish economy and high renewable energy generation. Even with extreme cold, a significant portion of additional needs can be met from storage, reducing the likelihood of fuel shortages.
- Exports shift eastward. Russia is redirecting gas flows to Asian markets following a sharp reduction in exports to Europe. Pipeline supplies to China from the Power of Siberia have reached record volumes (~22 billion cubic meters per year), and the Power of Siberia-2 project is being prepared to partially replace the lost European market. Meanwhile, Europe has increased its LNG purchases from alternative suppliers to compensate for the cessation of imports from Russia. Global gas flows have already been redirected: the EU is effectively managing without Russian gas, while Russia is enhancing its presence in Asia. For now, the combination of moderate demand and high stocks keeps gas prices at a comfortable level for consumers.
Thus, the global gas sector enters winter with a solid buffer. Unprecedented levels of European reserves and the redirection of flows allow for stability in prices during winter, provided no extreme cold spells or other unforeseen events occur.
Electric Power: Record Demand and Infrastructure Modernization
Global electricity consumption in 2025 is nearing a historic high (for the first time exceeding 30,000 TWh per year). Major economies—such as the U.S. and China—are reaching record generation volumes, and in many countries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, rapid demand growth is driven by industrialization and population growth. The swift increase in electricity demand necessitates proactive investments to avoid capacity shortages and disruptions in power supply.
Many countries are launching large-scale programs for modernizing power grids and building new power plants. Nevertheless, infrastructure often does not keep pace with the load growth: in certain regions, there are risks of grid overload and emergency outages. The accelerated expansion and upgrading of power infrastructure is becoming a key priority to ensure reliable electricity supply amidst record demand.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth and Integration Challenges
The renewable energy sector continues to grow rapidly, solidifying the shift towards a "green" transition. In 2025, record new solar and wind capacities are expected to come online, driven by significant government support and investment programs in leading economies. However, the rapid growth of renewables is accompanied by a number of challenges, while traditional resources remain the backbone of the global energy system.
- Records and challenges. Around 30% of global electricity in 2025 will come from renewable sources—a record share. In the European Union, clean sources now account for over 45% of generation, with their share in China approaching 30%. Wind and solar generation have jointly surpassed coal stations in terms of output for the first time (in the first half of 2025), marking a significant milestone in the energy transition. At the same time, high demand for renewable equipment has led to increased costs for key components (polysilicon, rare-earth metals), and the development of grid infrastructure and energy storage systems has not always kept pace with the introduction of new capacities. Regulatory uncertainty and market volatility also pose risks for investors and slow down project implementation.
New technological solutions—from more efficient batteries to hydrogen energy—are expected to help overcome the limitations of renewable growth. With sustained government support and consideration of market risks, "green" energy is poised to continue increasing its contribution to the global energy balance.
Coal Market: High Demand in Asia and Accelerated Phase-Out in the West
In 2025, the global coal market is demonstrating divergent trends. High demand for coal in Asia continues to support global trade, while developed countries are rapidly phasing out this fuel as part of their climate agenda.
The summer period was marked by a spike in coal imports in East Asia: in August, China, Japan, and South Korea imported nearly 20% more coal than in July. The rise in imports was due to increased electricity generation during extreme heat and temporary reductions in domestic output at certain mines (in China, safety inspections halted operations at several coal mining enterprises, necessitating increased imports of raw materials for power plants).
Although active demand in Asia currently supports the global coal market, the strategic course is shifting towards reducing the role of this type of fuel. The launch of new renewable energy capacities and stringent environmental regulations are inevitably displacing coal generation in the long term. The challenge for the industry is to balance current energy needs with long-term decarbonization goals to navigate the transition period without shortages or disruptions.
Russian Fuel Market: Stabilization, Export Restrictions, and Control
In autumn 2025, the internal market for oil products in Russia is gradually stabilizing after the acute crisis in late summer. In September, many regions faced shortages of gasoline and diesel due to a surge in seasonal demand and reduced supplies from refineries. The causes included scheduled maintenance at several plants, unscheduled outages, and drone attacks on oil infrastructure. By mid-October, the government had managed to eliminate the main fuel shortages through emergency measures—from a complete export ban to subsidies for supplies to gas stations. Wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have moved away from peak values, and independent gas stations have resumed normal operations in most regions. However, the situation in remote areas has not fully normalized, thus authorities are keeping it under close watch. To prevent a new crisis, the stabilization measures have been extended and expanded:
- Exports and prices are under control. The complete export ban on gasoline, introduced at the end of September, has been extended until December 31, 2025. Restrictions on diesel exports remain in place: independent traders cannot export, and oil companies with refineries are allowed to export only in strictly limited volumes. At the same time, the price damping mechanism supporting refiners continues to be in effect—the government compensates the difference between export and domestic fuel prices, maintaining incentives to supply the domestic market. Until mid-2026, duties on the import of gasoline and diesel have been waived to facilitate the attraction of external supplies if needed. The FAS is monitoring gas station prices; authorities continue to try to avoid direct freezing of retail prices, emphasizing market mechanisms and targeted subsidies.
The measures taken are already yielding results: gasoline and diesel production has returned to pre-crisis levels (helped by the completion of unscheduled repairs at refineries and the redirection of some export volumes to the domestic market). In most regions, independent fuel stations are once again supplied with necessary volumes. Authorities hope to navigate the winter period without supply interruptions, but they remain prepared to intervene quickly if the situation worsens. At the systemic level, the goal is set to modernize the fuel industry—developing storage and logistics infrastructure, implementing digital resource distribution management, and increasing the depth of oil refining. These directions, actively discussed at REN-2025, aim to ensure the long-term sustainability of the market.
Thus, the Russian fuel and energy complex enters winter under strict state control and supported by subsidies. The comprehensive measures—from export restrictions to the encouragement of refineries—offer grounds for hoping that a repeat of the fuel crisis will be avoided even under external pressure. Market participants will closely monitor the effectiveness of these steps, which will determine investor and consumer confidence in the stability of the country’s fuel and energy sector.
