Current Energy Sector News and Trends as of February 16, 2026: Oil and Gas Price Dynamics, LNG Market, Power Sector, Renewables, Coal, and Petroleum Products. Analysis for Investors and Participants in the Global Energy Market.
Oil: US-Iran Negotiations and the April OPEC+ Shift
As of February 16, 2026, Brent is approximately $67.72 per barrel, while WTI stands at around $62.86. Over the past week, Brent has decreased by about 0.5%, and WTI by approximately 1%. The market has responded to signals regarding a potential US-Iran deal, but has been unable to fully eliminate the premium due to the risk of negotiations falling through and supply factors. Notably, there is no current WTI pricing in the US today due to a holiday, which diminishes the informational value of daily movements in the American part of the curve.
The medium-term focus is shifting towards OPEC+: sources indicate a tendency among several members to consider increasing quotas starting in April; the key meeting of the eight participating countries is scheduled for March 1. Looking ahead to the "spring-summer" period, the importance of spreads (front-month vs. longer contracts) and differentials between oil grades increases, especially during moments of thin liquidity. Fundamental assessments are also diverging: the International Energy Agency's February review anticipates a more modest demand growth and a noticeable accumulation of stocks, which limits the potential for price increases without new supply disruptions.Sanctions and Logistics: The Cost of Maritime Services as a Market Factor
The EU has proposed a broader ban on services supporting the maritime export of Russian oil. If enacted, this package could replace the price cap regime and elevate the costs of insurance, freight, and compliance across the supply chain. Consequently, the role of the "shadow" fleet is enhanced, and premiums for transparent logistics are rising—particularly on routes from Russia to Asia and within the petroleum products segment, where tracing raw materials has become a commercial condition for access to the EU.
Regarding gas, the sanctions landscape is becoming "long-term": the EU has approved a mandatory schedule for phasing out imports of Russian LNG by the end of 2026 and pipeline gas by the autumn of 2027, with limited possibilities for shifting deadlines in case of issues with filling underground gas storage. This increases the value of long-term LNG contracts, regasification capacities, and portfolio flexibility for European buyers and suppliers.Gas: TTF for Europe, Henry Hub for the US, LNG for Asia
European gas prices (TTF) remain near low €30s per MWh (recent available values are around €32/MWh). The market is preemptively assessing the complexities of the injection season in gas storage facilities amid a structural withdrawal from Russian volumes: news related to the LNG fleet, routes, and regulation quickly morph into premiums at hubs and rising costs of "flexibility."
In the US, Henry Hub, following January's extremes, has returned to a range of approximately $3–3.5/MMBtu for near futures, while the EIA forecast still suggests a higher average price for 2026 (around $4.3/MMBtu). In Asia, the LNG price benchmark (JKM) for spring contracts is around $10–11/MMBtu: the market anticipates a wave of new capacity entering in 2026 and a restoration of Chinese imports, though not necessarily back to 2024 levels.
Electricity and Grids: EU Industry Urges Regulatory Changes
In the EU, Central European leaders are calling for lower electricity prices as a condition for industrial competitiveness, highlighting the role of expensive gas and the costs of the carbon regulation under ETS. Concurrently, options for adjusting the free quota system and the trajectory of ETS2 are being discussed, which is crucial for the electricity, metals, and chemical markets.
Grid limitations are becoming a key "bottleneck" in the energy transition. France is advocating for a unified energy market and an integrated European network, while regulators in the UK and France have suspended approval of a new interconnector, citing disputes over cost and revenue allocation. In investment terms, this implies that the share of system costs (grid, balancing, connection) in electricity bills is increasing and may dominate over the net wholesale price.
Renewables: Auctions Accelerate Deployment, but Supply Chains Become Costlier
The British Contracts for Difference auction confirmed the scale of demand for renewables: projects totaling 6.2 GW were selected (of which 4.9 GW is solar generation), with the total capacity of the round estimated at around 14.7 GW. Price levels are significant, particularly the strike prices (in 2024 prices): solar generation and onshore wind remain competitive compared to new gas plants at contracted prices.
In Northern Europe, there remains a strong focus on offshore wind and joint infrastructure. For renewable energy investors, this shifts the focus from "pure generation" to grids, storage, fleet servicing, and equipment—segments where capacity shortages and supply delays most frequently manifest throughout the capital investment cycle.
Coal: Structural Shift in Trade Amidst Rising Domestic Production
Despite record global demand in 2025, seaborne coal imports in Asia have decreased: the market is increasingly defined by China and India, which are ramping up domestic production while simultaneously increasing the share of renewable energy in generation. China expects coal production to rise to 4.86 billion tons in 2026 (the slowest growth rate in a decade) and forecasts a decline in imports, citing supply risks from Indonesia. The price range for energy coal in mid-February is holding around $110–120/ton, supporting exporter offers and maintaining coal's competitiveness against LNG in coastal Asia.
Petroleum Products and Refineries: Incidents in Russia and Diesel Flow Reconfiguration
The petroleum products market (diesel/gasoil, gasoline, fuel oil) remains vulnerable to refinery incidents and sanction-related logistics. Production at the Volgograd Refinery has ceased following a drone attack, and damage to a key unit increases the risk of short-term premiums in regional supply chains. In Europe, sanctions are altering operational models: TotalEnergies has taken full operational control of the Zeeland refinery in the Netherlands, supplying raw materials and taking all output while maintaining the share of the Russian stakeholder in the capital.
Following the EU's ban on imports of fuel produced from Russian oil, diesel flows are being reallocated: Indian supplies are shifting to West Africa, while Europe is increasing imports from the US and the Middle East. This trend makes petroleum products more sensitive to freight and compliance issues than to the oil price itself, enhancing the value of "flexible" refineries with access to various grades of raw materials.
Forecast for Tuesday, February 17, 2026
- Oil: key risk factors include news from Geneva (US-Iran) and expectations regarding OPEC+ ahead of March 1, 2026; the baseline scenario anticipates Brent trading in the high $60s while retaining a risk premium.
- Gas: for Europe—weather conditions and the speed of the transition to the injection season; for the US—temperature forecasts and expectations from EIA reports; for Asia—the spread between JKM and TTF and the availability of the LNG fleet.
- Electricity: political signals regarding ETS and network investments in the EU, as well as regulatory discussions on interconnectors and tariffs in the UK.
Brief Analytical Segment: Recommendations
- For Investors: prefer businesses with diversified cash flow (integrated majors, gas/LNG portfolios, grids), as volatility in 2026 is often driven by logistics and regulatory factors.
- For Traders: focus on spreads and premiums (oil/petroleum products/freight), rather than solely on "direction"; this is where arbitrage forms amidst sanctions.
- For Refineries: proactively hedge product premiums and ensure alternative logistics for raw materials and shipments—incidents tend to impact gasoline and diesel more than crude oil.
- For Renewables and Electricity: assess projects considering network fees, connectivity, and balancing—systemic costs are emerging as a focal point of political pressure in the EU.
