Current Energy Sector News for Saturday, September 6, 2025: Brent Oil Around $70, Sanctions Against Energy, EU Gas Reserves, Russian Oil Products Market, and Renewable Energy Records.
The current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of September 6, 2025, capture the attention of investors and market participants with a combination of conflicting factors. On one hand, the global oil market has achieved a fragile equilibrium around the $70 per barrel mark as the excess supply and slowing demand continue to limit price growth. On the other hand, geopolitical tensions are once again rising: Western countries are tightening sanctions against the Russian energy sector, and the protracted conflict in Ukraine still poses risks to supply stability.
Meanwhile, Europe is confidently preparing for winter by filling gas storage facilities at record pace and keeping gas prices within moderate limits. At the same time, the global energy transition is accelerating—renewable energy sources continue to set new production records, even though reliance on traditional sources remains crucial for grid stability. In Russia, following an unprecedented surge in motor fuel prices in August, government-imposed restrictions (including the extension of the fuel export ban) are gradually stabilizing the situation in the domestic market.
Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of the current date.
Oil Market: Brent Around $70, Fragile Balance Between Surplus and Risks
Global oil prices are showing relative stability as September begins. The benchmark Brent blend has settled in the range of $68-70 per barrel, while American WTI is trading at $64-66. Current quotes are about 10% lower than last year's levels, reflecting a gradual normalization of the market following the peaks of the energy crisis in 2022-2023. Several factors are influencing price dynamics:
- OPEC+ Output Increase: In August 2025, the OPEC+ alliance took another step by increasing the total production quota by approximately 0.5 million barrels per day, continuing the gradual restoration of supply from previous months. By early autumn, the overall production level of participating countries approached pre-crisis levels. At the upcoming alliance meeting (scheduled for September 7), countries may pause further production increases, given signs of a forming surplus and rising global oil inventories.
- Record Production in the U.S.: The United States has reached a historical peak in oil production. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), summer production exceeded 13.5 million barrels per day, contributing significant additional volumes to the global market. Additionally, several other producers (such as Brazil and Guyana) have also increased exports in recent years, intensifying market competition.
- Weak Demand Growth: Global oil consumption is increasing at a much slower pace than in previous years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a world demand increase in 2025 of only about +0.7 million b/d (compared to over +2.5 million b/d in 2023). Even OPEC's estimate has been revised down to approximately +1.2 million b/d for 2025. The reasons include a slowing global economy, the consequences of high prices from the previous period that stimulated energy conservation, and a slowdown in industrial activity in China.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: The prolonged conflict and sanctions confrontation are creating additional nervousness in the market. The lack of progress in negotiations means sanctions will remain in place, along with the possibility of new restrictions (previously, Washington threatened 100% tariffs on Russian oil in the event of a failure in peace efforts). Meanwhile, the sanctions themselves and the military risks (including recent drone attacks on oil infrastructure) maintain a certain "risk premium" in prices, preventing significant drops. As a result, geopolitics simultaneously prevents both a collapse in prices and sharp increases, keeping the market in a relatively narrow range.
Thus, the oil market remains close to equilibrium: excess supply is offset by geopolitical risks. However, by the end of the year, an increase in surpluses is expected, which may intensify downward pressure on prices.
Gas Market: EU Storage Full, Prices Remain Moderate
The gas market remains focused on Europe, where EU countries have proactively built a significant fuel reserve ahead of winter. By early September, underground gas storage (UGS) facilities are filled to over 90% of total capacity, significantly ahead of planned schedules and exceeding the target level set for November. Active imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) during the summer months have allowed for rapid accumulation of record reserves. As a result, exchange gas prices are held at a relatively low level: futures at the TTF hub are trading around €30/MWh (approximately $400 per thousand cubic meters), which is significantly lower than the peaks observed during the 2022 crisis. This pricing situation considerably reduces the burden on European industry and energy sectors ahead of the heating season.
The main uncertainty ahead is the potential increase in LNG demand in Asia during winter, which could divert some supplies and push prices upward. However, the situation for the EU is favorable: record reserves and stable supplies allow for relative confidence heading into winter. European regulators indicate their intention to continue maintaining high gas reserves to ensure energy security.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Escalation of Pressure on the Energy Sector
Amid the prolonged conflict, the U.S. is increasing pressure on Moscow's partners. Following failed diplomatic dialogue, Washington has imposed punitive tariffs against India for purchasing Russian oil (and similar measures threaten China). Meanwhile, the European Union has expanded sanction limitations, targeting transport companies and traders helping to evade the existing embargo. Additionally, drone attacks on Russian FEC facilities have increased: several recent incidents temporarily disabled some refining capacities, heightening market volatility. While global supplies currently offset localized losses, further escalation of military risks could destabilize raw material prices significantly. Thus, geopolitics remains a key factor of uncertainty for the global energy market.
Asia: India and China Balancing Beneficial Imports and Rising Production
- India: Faced with sanction pressure, New Delhi openly states that it cannot sharply reduce its critical imports of Russian energy resources. To maintain the Indian market, Russian suppliers are providing substantial discounts (Urals oil is selling several dollars cheaper than Brent). As a result, India continues to purchase large volumes of oil and petroleum products from Russia. Simultaneously, on August 15, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a program for exploring deepwater fields: the state company ONGC is already drilling in the Andaman Sea, hoping to eventually boost its own oil and gas production.
- China: Asia's largest economy is simultaneously boosting resource imports and increasing domestic production. Beijing has not joined the Western sanctions, remaining one of the main buyers of Russian oil and gas on preferential terms. Domestic production in China is also increasing (+1% for oil and +6% for gas since the beginning of 2025), but it is still insufficient for the economy's needs: over 70% of consumed oil and around 40% of gas must still be imported. In an effort to strengthen long-term energy security, Moscow and Beijing recently reached an agreement to construct a new gas pipeline, "Power of Siberia 2," to China, which will significantly increase Russian gas exports to the Chinese market in the future.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and Challenges for Energy Systems
The global shift towards clean energy continues to gain momentum in 2025, reaching new heights. In the European Union, by the end of 2024, solar and wind power plants have collectively generated more electricity than coal and gas plants (this trend has continued into 2025). In the United States, the share of renewable sources in generation has surpassed 30%, while China is adding dozens of gigawatts of new solar and wind stations each year, constantly breaking "green" generation records. According to IEA estimates, total global investments in energy in 2025 will exceed $3 trillion, with more than half of this amount directed towards renewable energy projects, power grid modernization, and energy storage systems.
However, the rapid growth in the share of variable renewable generation creates new challenges. In the absence of sunlight or wind, traditional power plants are still needed as backup capacity to meet peak demand. Various countries are actively investing in large-scale energy storage (industrial batteries, pumped storage plants) and "smart" grids to increase energy system reliability. Experts predict that by 2026-2027, renewable energy could become the leading source of electricity generation globally, surpassing coal.
Coal: Steady Demand Amid Stable Prices
Despite efforts to decarbonize, the coal sector remains a significant and stable segment of the global energy landscape in 2025. Coal consumption is still high, primarily in Asia. China—the largest producer and consumer of coal—annually extracts over 4 billion tons, nearly all of which goes to domestic energy consumption. During peak summer loads, even this volume proves insufficient, forcing China to import additional coal batches to support its power plants. In India, around 70% of electricity is still generated from coal-fired power plants, and coal consumption is increasing along with the economy. A number of other developing Asian countries are also building new coal power plants to meet rapidly growing electricity demand.
The largest coal exporters (Indonesia, Australia, Russia, etc.) have significantly increased production in recent years, allowing prices to drop after record peaks in 2021-2022. Currently, coal prices are maintained at relatively moderate levels, providing energy producers with affordable fuel while ensuring stable profits for mining companies. Although many countries declare plans for a phased withdrawal from coal generation, this resource will remain irreplaceable for reliable electricity supply to millions of people, particularly in the Asian region, for the next few years. Consequently, the coal market is in relative equilibrium: demand remains high, while prices are moderate.
Russian Oil Products Market: Export Restrictions Stabilize Fuel Prices
In the Russian fuel market, decisive actions have been taken to normalize oil product prices toward the end of summer. In August, wholesale exchange prices for gasoline and diesel reached record highs amid surging demand, disruptions at several refineries, and lucrative exports. This forced the authorities to extend and strengthen restrictive measures. Specifically, the following steps are currently being implemented:
- Export Ban: The government extended the ban on the export of automotive gasoline and diesel fuel until September 30. This measure aims to direct additional volumes of oil products to the domestic market to saturate supply.
- Supply Control: Oversight of fuel sales within the country has been intensified. Refineries (refineries) must prioritize meeting domestic demand, excluding broker resales on the exchange. Direct contracts between refineries and distribution companies are encouraged. The damping mechanism for compensations, which reimburses companies for part of their losses and stimulates supplies at gas stations, remains in effect.
As a result of these measures, by the end of August, the growth of wholesale prices stopped, and retail prices remain under control (having increased less than 5% since the beginning of the year). Authorities state their readiness to extend restrictions and deploy additional resources if necessary to prevent fuel shortages. The situation in the oil products market is gradually stabilizing, and sharp price spikes in the fall are not forecasted.
