Current News in the Fuel and Energy Sector as of September 5, 2025: Oil and Gas Price Dynamics, New Sanctions Against the Energy Sector, Status of European Gas Storage, Renewable Energy Development, Coal Market, and Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices in Russia.
The latest events in the fuel and energy sector (FES) as of September 5, 2025, attract the attention of investors and market participants due to their contradictory trends. On one hand, the global oil market maintains a fragile equilibrium: supply excess and slowing demand continue to exert pressure on prices. On the other hand, geopolitical tensions are escalating: Western countries are imposing new sanctions against the Russian energy sector, while the prolonged conflict surrounding Ukraine continues to pose risks to supply stability. Meanwhile, Europe is confidently preparing for winter, with gas storage facilities reaching record levels and keeping gas prices within acceptable limits. Simultaneously, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—renewable energy is setting new generation records, although ensuring the reliability of energy systems still requires support from traditional sources. In Russia, authorities are extending restrictions on fuel exports in an attempt to curb rising domestic gasoline prices. Below is an overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw material sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Supply Excess Balanced by Risks
Global oil prices are demonstrating relative stability, reflecting the interplay of fundamental and political factors. North Sea Brent crude hovers around $65–68 per barrel, while American WTI ranges from $61 to $64. These levels are approximately 10–15% lower than a year ago. Price dynamics are influenced by several trends:
- Supply Growth: The OPEC+ alliance has nearly returned to pre-crisis production levels. At the same time, supply is increasing due to record production in the U.S. (over 13 million barrels per day) and the expansion of exports from other countries.
- Weak Demand Growth: Global oil consumption is growing significantly slower than in previous years. Economic slowdowns and high prices from the recent past are encouraging energy conservation and dampening demand. According to the IEA, demand growth in 2025 is expected to be only around +0.7 million barrels per day, substantially lower than in previous years.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: New U.S. and EU sanctions against Russian oil complicate trade, while military risks (attacks on infrastructure) maintain a premium in prices. Overall, geopolitics is both hindering price declines and supporting increases, keeping prices within a narrow corridor.
As a result, the oil market remains close to a balanced state. The surplus supply is currently offset by geopolitical risks; however, by the end of the year, an increase in excess is expected, which could intensify pressure on prices.
Gas Market: EU Storage Full, Moderate Prices
In the gas market, Europe is at the center of attention, where EU countries have built a buffer in advance of winter. By the beginning of September, underground gas storage facilities are filled to over 90% of their total capacity, significantly ahead of schedule and exceeding the target level set for November. Active imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) last summer helped quickly boost reserves. As a result, gas exchange prices remain at a relatively low level: futures at the TTF hub fluctuate around €30/MWh (approximately $400 per thousand cubic meters), which is drastically lower than the crisis peaks of 2022. This pricing scenario is easing the expenses of European industries and energy sectors ahead of the heating season.
The main risk ahead is the potential increase in demand for LNG in Asia, which could divert some supplies. However, the current situation is favorable for the EU: record reserves and stable imports allow for a relatively confident outlook for the upcoming winter. European regulators express their readiness to continue the policy of maintaining high reserves going forward to ensure energy security.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Increasing Pressure
The U.S. has escalated pressure amidst the prolonged conflict: following a failed dialogue, Washington imposed tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil (similar measures threaten China), and the European Union expanded sanctions on carriers and traders that facilitate circumventing the embargo. Concurrently, drone attacks on Russian energy sector facilities have increased, temporarily incapacitating some oil refining operations and amplifying nervousness in the markets. Although global supplies are currently compensating for these losses, any new escalation could seriously destabilize prices. Thus, geopolitics remains a key factor of uncertainty for the energy sector.
Asia: India and China Between Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Under sanctions pressure, India openly states that it cannot sharply reduce critically important imports of Russian oil and gas. To retain the Indian market, Russian suppliers are offering discounts (Urals is sold at several dollars cheaper than Brent). As a result, New Delhi continues to purchase significant volumes of oil and petroleum products from Russia. Simultaneously, on August 15, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a program for exploiting deep-water fields: the state-owned ONGC is already drilling wells in the Andaman Sea to enhance the country’s energy independence in the long term.
- China: Asia's largest economy is increasing both imports of energy resources and domestic production. Beijing has not joined the sanctions, remaining one of the main purchasers of Russian oil and gas at preferential prices. Domestic production in China is also rising (+1% for oil and +6% for gas since the beginning of 2025), but this is not sufficient: over 70% of consumed oil and about 40% of gas still need to be imported.
Energy Transition: Growth of Renewables and Balancing in Energy
The global transition to clean energy reached new heights in 2025. In the EU, solar and wind first generated more electricity than coal and gas in 2024 (this trend continued in 2025). In the U.S., the share of renewable energy sources (RES) surpassed 30%, while China is adding dozens of gigawatts of new solar and wind stations annually, breaking records for “green” generation. According to the IEA, total investments in energy in 2025 will exceed $3 trillion, with more than half directed towards RES projects, modernization of power grids, and storage systems. However, the rapid growth of variable RES poses challenges for energy systems: when there is no sun or wind, traditional power plants are still needed to cover peak demands. Various countries are actively investing in energy storage and “smart” grids to enhance reliability. Experts predict that by 2026-2027, renewable energy will take the leading position globally in electricity production, surpassing coal.
Coal: High Demand in Asia and Price Stability
Despite efforts for decarbonization, the coal sector remains a large and stable segment of the global energy landscape in 2025. Coal consumption remains high, primarily in Asia. China, the largest producer and consumer of coal, extracts over 4 billion tons annually, with almost all this volume directed toward domestic consumption; during peak summer heat, this is insufficient, leading China to import additional coal. In India, about 70% of electricity is still generated by coal-fired power plants, and coal consumption is rising along with the economy. Several other developing Asian countries are also building new coal-fired power plants to satisfy the growing electricity demand.
Major exporters (Indonesia, Australia, Russia, etc.) have increased their production in recent years, which has helped lower prices after record peaks in 2021-2022. Currently, coal prices remain stable, providing affordable fuel for energy producers while ensuring the profitability of mines. Although many countries declare plans to phase out coal, it will remain indispensable for reliable electricity supply to millions, especially in Asia, for the next few years. Thus, the coal market is in a relative equilibrium: demand remains consistently high, and prices are moderate.
Russian Fuel Market: Restrictions and Price Stabilization Measures
In the internal fuel segment of Russia, measures were taken at the end of summer to normalize prices for petroleum products. In August, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel in Russia reached record levels amid surging demand, disruptions in refinery operations, and profitable exports, prompting authorities to extend and strengthen restrictive measures. Key steps are outlined below:
- Export Ban: The government extended the ban on gasoline and diesel exports until September 30. This will redirect additional volumes of fuel to the domestic market.
- Market Control: Monitoring of fuel circulation has been intensified: producers are mandated to direct maximum output to the domestic market, eliminating stock market resales; direct contracts between refineries and distribution companies are encouraged. The damping mechanism of subsidies, compensating companies for part of their losses, is maintained to stimulate supplies at gas stations.
The measures taken are already yielding results: by the end of August, wholesale prices ceased to rise, while retail prices remain under control (increasing only by 5% since the start of the year). Authorities are prepared to extend restrictions and utilize reserves if necessary to prevent fuel shortages. The situation in the petroleum products market is gradually stabilizing, and sharp price fluctuations are not expected in the autumn.
